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Monday, June 04, 2018

It’s Getting Drafty

Bit hectic this week at casa de Jose so I really haven’t had a chance to look into the draft.  The Sox top three picks are #26, #64 and #100 and given the state of the system I think it is fair to say the Sox could use a good draft.  I’ll put this up in case anyone wants to comment as the draft gets rolling and despite being completely devoid of knowledge of the draftees this year I fully plan on complaining at some point.  Some notes on these picks;

#26 - Top 5
Alan Trammell - 70.4
Dave Henderson - 27.6
Dan Plesac - 17.0
Brent Gates - 5.5
Jeremy Bonderman - 4.9

Red Sox picked #26
Blake Swihart
Craig Hansen
Jeff Ledbetter

- Not exactly prime real estate but the Sox have gotten a couple of Major Leaguers at this spot (albeit fairly uninspiring ones).  Getting any kind of contributor here would be nice.

#64 - Top 5
Brian McCann - 31.4
Hunter Pence - 29.9
Dennis Lamp - 15.0
Chuck Crim - 6.2
Jimmy Nelson - 4.1

Red Sox picked #64
Skip Jutze - (3.7)
Randy Markley
John Schmidt

- Arguably #64 has been as valuable a slot as #26 which reveals the uncertain nature of the draft as well as the drop off from the top slots.  If the Sox have done their homework opportunities exist here (I have literally never heard of any of the three guys the Sox have drafted there).

#100 - Top 5
Ron Gant - 34.1
Shane Mack - 21.6
Steven Souza Jr. - 5.6
Josh Bard - 3.3
Ryon Healy - 2.9

Red Sox picked #100
N/A

- 18 of the 53 players picked here have made the Majors.  If the Sox can get a Major Leaguer out of this slot it will be a win.

Obviously the Sox are not going into this draft expecting stardom.  At the same time you need not be a high pick to succeed.  Ignoring the international component to the Sox roster the regulars have been drafted as follows;

Mitch Moreland - 17th round
Andrew Benintendi - 1st round
Jackie Bradley - 1st round
Mookie Betts - 5th round
JD Martinez - 20th round

The four drafted pitchers in the rotation (EdRod was an international signee) are all first rounders.  Porcello was picked #27 (let’s not let the next Porcello skip by 26 this year Dave!).

Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 04, 2018 at 10:04 AM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. villageidiom Posted: June 04, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5685665)
Boston's last pick by overall draft slot, for picks 1-15, per BB-Ref:

1: never
2: never
3: 1967, Mike Garman
4: 1966, Ken Brett
5: 1965, Billy Conigliaro
6: never
7: 2015, Andrew Benintendi
8: never
9: never
10: never
11: never
12: 2016, Jay Groome
13: 1977, Andrew Madden
14: 1986, Greg McMurtry
15: 1995, Andy Yount

They've only had six picks in the top 10, in the entire history of the draft. (They are the four listed above, plus Trey Ball and Trot Nixon, both #7 picks overall.) They haven't had a top 6 pick in over 40 years. They have never had a #1 or #2 overall pick (the Cardinals are the only other team to share this distinction). This is the downside of a team that routinely does well at the major-league level. I accept.

The only distinction I can give for Trey Ball at this point is that his name should be said loudly, as one would say PLAY BALL! But other than that, blech. WHIP of 1.675 in AA so far this year, after 1.749 last year at the same level, out of the bullpen.
   2. karlmagnus Posted: June 04, 2018 at 04:15 PM (#5685786)
On average, even if Ball and Groome are busts, Benintendi makes up for them, doesn't he? Shouldn't expect to get more than that out of 3 high draft picks (and Groome might still not be a bust -- find out next year, probably.)
   3. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 04, 2018 at 04:20 PM (#5685795)
Not sure what you mean by making up for it. The thing that bothered me about the Ball pick is it was seen as a high risk pick at the time. Austin Meadows was sitting there and the Sox passed on him. I don't feel the same way about the Groome pick, that to me was the right guy to take. If he busts, he busts. Ball felt like a high variance pick at a time when the Sox had what was a rare foray into high pick land.
   4. karlmagnus Posted: June 04, 2018 at 04:29 PM (#5685809)
I remember agreeing with you about the Ball pick and preferring Meadows at the time (though he doesn't appear to be as good as Benintendi.) But if we had a monkey on a typewriter doing Sox picks, given two 7s and a 12, I don't think we would expect to get more WaR for the Sox than Benintendi is likely to provide.
   5. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 04, 2018 at 04:38 PM (#5685816)
That's probably true but it doesn't mean those weren't lost opportunities. The good news is there are starting to be some decent signs. CJ Chatham has been raking since getting to Salem and it was noted by SoxProspects.com today that Bobby Dalbec has been able to dramatically cut down on his strikeouts, he may be figuring it out. The Sox need a couple of these guys to put it together.
   6. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 04, 2018 at 09:43 PM (#5685957)
Tristan Casas. LHB 3B expected to move to first. 70 power according to Baseball America.
   7. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 05, 2018 at 08:53 AM (#5686071)
Nick Decker LHB OF with the second round pick. The Sox Prospects guys seem excited about this pick. Another power guy, a bit on the smaller side (just under 6 feet) BA has him ranked #110 so the Sox seem to have this guy valued a bit higher.
   8. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 05, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5686274)
3rd round - Durbin Feltman - RHP from TCU - He's been a closer for three years so that limits his ceiling but he's averaging 16K/9IP according to BA. Won't be surprised if he is put on a fast track.
   9. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 05, 2018 at 02:21 PM (#5686302)
4th round - Kole Cottam - C - Looks like a siganbility pick but an interesting one. BA says scouts think he can be an above average power hitter but his defense has regressed at Kentucky. Sox seem to be going big here, 4 picks so far, 3 sluggers and a power bullpen arm.
   10. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 05, 2018 at 03:02 PM (#5686342)
5th round - Thad Ward - RHP - Another signability pick, not so interesting. Doesn't even make BA's top 500 list.
   11. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 05, 2018 at 03:56 PM (#5686379)
6th round - Devlin Granberg - 1B/OF - Plus hitter with good speed and no position. Doesn't have much of an arm according to the BA team. Not really a signability pick since he seems to be right about where you'd expect (rated 245 by BA, drafted 190) but as a college senior should be a pretty easy sign.
   12. villageidiom Posted: June 05, 2018 at 11:27 PM (#5686715)
Sox seem to be going big here, 4 picks so far, 3 sluggers and a power bullpen arm.
Do you suppose with the weakness of the Sox farm system right now that they intentionally chose players whose skills were likely to allow for rapid promotion? I mean, they all have room for development but from what I'm reading about each one it doesn't seem like there's a Trey Ball among them. That is to say there are no high-risk / high-upside picks.
   13. villageidiom Posted: June 06, 2018 at 08:48 AM (#5686806)
To clarify, I'm asking if (a) these players are more likely to make MLB, but less likely to develop far beyond their current skill level, and (b) this would have been a conscious choice by a front office that has emptied the farm system.
   14. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 06, 2018 at 08:49 AM (#5686809)
I don't know if they have necessarily drafted rapid promotion guys. Casas and Decker are high schoolers so I don't think they should be expected to get promoted too quickly. Feltman definitely is though. Someone, Callis I think, said he expects Feltman to be the first guy from this draft in a big league uniform. Cottam is also a guy who looks like he could be promoted quickly.

I'll be interested to see where these guys slot into the SoxProspects rankings. Just guessing but Casas probably sneaks into the 6-10 range somewhere and Feltman is probably top 15 just because of what should be a high floor.
   15. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 06, 2018 at 08:57 AM (#5686815)
I don't know if there is a big difference between these guys and Ball. The difference with Ball is that the Sox were picking at a spot where the expectation is higher so the gamble was a bit unnecessary. I think there is some potential upside here. Casas and Cottam are two guys that look like potential high upside guys to me. Casas is a big dude; 6'4" 240 and he's only 18. There is a very real Anthony Rizzo potential there. Cottam is a slugging catcher with defensive question marks. I have to admit reading his BA scouting report the name that flashed before my eyes was Gary Sanchez.

Obviously the likelihood of either guy reaching such heights or even close to it is incredibly low. If you get offered a bet and the choices are "they become Rizzo/Sanchez" or "they don't make the Major Leagues" take the latter. But I don't get the impression that anyone (save Feltman) is that much of a finished product. Side note on Feltman is that I keep mentally calling him "Dustbin" rather than "Durbin."
   16. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 06, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5687039)
Interesting pick this morning; Nick Northcut in the 11th round. Supposedly it's going to be tough to sway him from Vanderbilt but Baseball America has him ranked #69 overall and the Sox made some signability picks so they should have some room to spend.
   17. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 06, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5687082)
Never mind, wrong Howell.
   18. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 14, 2018 at 08:37 PM (#5692509)
Sox have signed Casas. He’s being assigned to the Gulf Coast League so unless he gets moved out quickly I should get a chance to see him when I’m there next month.
   19. Bad Fish Posted: June 26, 2018 at 11:06 PM (#5700323)
Anyone have thoughts about trying to sign Luke Heimlich? I think, for a lot of reasons, I fall in the give the guy a chance camp, but I certainly understand those who would be offended by the idea and the business decision to not even touch the topic.

   20. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 27, 2018 at 08:52 AM (#5700413)
Fish - Yeah it's an intriguing idea. I'm with you that I feel like he deserves a shot. I have real problems with the way we as a society handle this stuff in general. If it's not a life sentence in prison then he deserves the right to try and make a living in his chosen field. Heimlich's situation gets more complex when you take into account his age at the time and his claims that he plead guilty due to bad advice from his attorney.

Of course the flip side of this is abusing a 6 year old girl is really really really (continued) bad stuff. That's not a small thing to just gloss over and her family (well her side of the family since they are cousins I believe) is pretty insistent that he did exactly what he was accused of.

In the end I want him to get a chance but I think I'd feel better if it was someone other than the Sox doing it. I suspect that is roughly how all 30 teams looked at this. No one really is pushing for some formal ban but given what he plead guilty to the bad press is something that I think all 30 teams are just saying "he's not worth it." It would be interesting to see how teams would have reacted if this was Harper or Strasburg or someone like that. A late first round/early second round guy is a lot different from "best in the draft" caliber player. I wonder how good a player would have to be to overcome this and get a shot.
   21. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 11:48 AM (#5700602)
Fish - Yeah it's an intriguing idea. I'm with you that I feel like he deserves a shot. I have real problems with the way we as a society handle this stuff in general. If it's not a life sentence in prison then he deserves the right to try and make a living in his chosen field. Heimlich's situation gets more complex when you take into account his age at the time and his claims that he plead guilty due to bad advice from his attorney.

...

I wonder how good a player would have to be to overcome this and get a shot.


Part of what bugs me is the mental fight I have about your last sentence. If he were better at throwing a baseball we should overlook his crimes? One one level I hate that thinking - either accept his punishment is over or don't, as you say right from the start. On the other hand, I know that ultimately that is how a huge part of society is - you weight he cost against the benefit and go from there. I guess I'd tend to be ok with the Sox signing him only because I don't think him being on an MLB team enables him to repeat his crimes any more than any other job he may have. If this was a potential coach the Sox were looking at hiring, I would be completely against it (or a teacher/doctor/politician/person with inherent 'power' or influence).
   22. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 27, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5700735)
If he were better at throwing a baseball we should overlook his crimes?


No, I wasn't saying we should overlook it, just acknowledging the reality that we would (and I won't claim any moral superiority on the matter). Your point about him as a coach/teacher/etc...is a good one.
   23. Chip Posted: June 27, 2018 at 06:29 PM (#5701087)
Sox sign Brandon Phillips to a minor league deal. Confidence in Pedroia’s healthy return is obviously lacking.
   24. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 29, 2018 at 08:51 AM (#5702065)
Yeah that was my reaction too. My father and I were talking during the Mariners series and I was saying I'd honestly be surprised if we got anything out of Pedey this year.
   25. villageidiom Posted: July 02, 2018 at 04:11 PM (#5704041)
The Lorenzo Cedrola era has ended. He's been traded to the Reds.

Now before you ask "who?" I'll mention he was an outfielder at Greenville who's been doing well this year. And before you ask "who did we get in return?" I'll mention Boston got some of the Reds' international signing bonus pool, which is relevant because it's international signing season as of today.
   26. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 02, 2018 at 04:17 PM (#5704048)
The Sox Prospects guys seemed to like Cedrola. He's hitting alright in Greenville. The Sox haven't done much with international signing money yet so I wonder if they are in the Victor Victor Mesa sweepstakes (and yes, that's his name. Gotta differentiate from father Victor Mesa and brother Victor Mesa Jr.).

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