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The "rookie strike zone" phenomena is horse sh!t. The automated strike zone can't come fast enough for me.
Edit: To clarify, a terrible slump could have begun, but after only four games, it is not yet "terrible."
In that case, Cody Ransom is doing the impossible.
His swing itself is pretty ugly. While that's not necessarily a deal-breaker (no one had an uglier swing than Damon), it appears that Ellsbury doesn't really have much of a plan up there. His feet are bouncing all over the place in the batter's box.
And Ellsbury's not exactly a teenager. He's 2 months younger than Pedroia. At some point very soon I'm going to be leaning towards the "what we see with him is what he'll be" school of thought. He excited everyone with his hot start in 2007, but sensible people knew he couldn't keep that up, and he hasn't. But his production levels since then have been mediocre and disappointing; his OBP in the leadoff spot was 324, which simply isn't good enough.
The frustrating thing with Ellsbury is that if he got on base a bit more he'd be a real force at the top of the lineup because he steals so many bases and has such good speed he scores almost 1/2 the time he gets on base. The Sox could get immense benefits from just a bit of an improvement from the guy. But he hasn't improved yet. And I am wondering if/when that will ever happen.
As for Lowrie, I think that's Ceasar Crespo in his uniform so far this season. He looks completely lost, and as others have noted he's getting called strikes 4 inches off the outside part of the plate. I never thought I'd say this but I'm anxiously awaiting Lugo's return to health. Lowrie looks very frustrated so far.
One issue I have is Justin Masterson, setup man. Is he really going to be restricted to relief? It's not just that he has obvious potential to be a middle of the rotation starter on a playoff club (say, a Jered Weaver), but further that he's just not that great in relief, because he's not going to be 8th-inning effective against LHB until he refines his changeup and his sinker command, which I don't see him doing while being matched up mostly against RHB in a major league bullpen. I'd much rather see him starting in Pawtucket with Ramon Ramirez (love him!) pitching the 8th, and an actual long reliever taking Masterson's slot.
It took 2.5 years before Nick Markakis started getting pitches called properly, at least against teams other than Boston/NY. Actually drove him into a slump last May, 'cuz he had to swing at pitches he wouldn't otherwise have swung at.
/This year's looking better, so far.
Bay batted 4th 52 times for Pitt last year then 0 times for Boston, despite the fact that he was the perfect fit for the position. He often hit 5th or 6th behind inferior hitters. My guess last year was that they didn't want him to feel the pressure to replace Manny, but I don't know what their deal is this year (could be they just think Youk is better).
I'd hate to see Drew in the leadoff spot. He struggled in that situation last year and I think it's because he became too passive. I'd put Pedroia there, move Youk or Bay to #2 and be done with it. I'm not sure you're wasting much of Pedroia's power, as it's mostly in the form of doubles.
Also, I know it didn't end up mattering, but why didn't they PR for Ortiz in the 9th the other night?
Yes, that's a very nice player. Who is he?
In fact, if Ellsbury put up those numbers, he'd have only the 40th season in MLB history of an OPS over .800, a BA over .290 and 60 or more steals.
It sure is. Is there anybody that both sees this as a median projection for Ellsbury and thinks there is any kind of problem here?
Nevermind, RB did it WAY better.
Oh, his response was better than the one I had originally posted in #28. I originally posted your question and answered "Kenny Lofton in 1995", because he hit roughly .350/.450 and stole like 54 bases, wasn't dead on, but it was relatively close. But then I saw that RB had posted that huge ass list of players who did that and thought it was a superior response, so I didn't want to leave the post up and be so clearly outshined one post sooner. I should have taken down your quote when I removed my response because now that I look at it again, it is kind of confusing.
Absolutely.
I'm kind of surprised it took this long to bring up that particular bit of lunacy.
Arrrghh.
I have a theory - It was touchy enough for Francona to bump Bay up past Lowell from a clubhouse / ego management standpoint. You can't put Baldelli between them because that would invalidate the whole argument that they're approximately equal in standing. However, in reality, Baldelli might be enough better than Lowell that Bay-Lowell-Baldelli is not obviously better than Baldelli-Bay-Lowell. So, if those are the only two options, there's no point worrying about it. I'm inclined to go with whatever solution results in Lowell, and his proclivity for double plays, batting last among the legitimate hitters.
EDIT: And on injuries, I think it makes sense enough that if you lighten JD Drew's workload, he'll stand a better chance of staying healthy.
Well, Baldelli clearly gives you more of a boost on offense when replacing Ellsbury, but you give some of the difference back on defense (not that Baldelli is obviously worse than Ellsbury, but he's at least a little better than Drew in right). That, and the reasonable argument that Drew may need more rest than Ellsbury makes me ok with splitting up the platooning 50/50.
I just can't see the rest argument as being strong enough to take all the starts from Drew, especially since Ellsbury is the type of player that needs to be perfectly (leg) healthy to have any value at all.
Who else. Ped's a bat control freak, needed for 2nd. The best hitters, like, for instance, Lowell, are run producers. Lowell's got a good eye, but your basic hacker approach, commonly known as first pitch, fast ball. Doesn't put the onus on the pitcher, more concerned doesn't let a cheap strike get by. Walks your basic 5%, essentially when the pitcher gets behind the count to start with.
Putting the onus on the pitcher throughout the count,ie, zone hitting, is critical to get the walks up to 8-10% which in turn is critical for obp- leadoff. Yea, looks bad sometimes when let a pitch (zone, type) get by, but that's the deal with this type approach.
Ellsbury's a freak - one of the few speed guys who CAN hit and whose OBP should move significantly upward as he develops into better than an average hitter.
You're right, that is the job description. But that is also not what he's doing. His walk rate dropped off the table as the season progressed last year and he's not shown any better patience thus far this season (SSS alert.) He projects to have the 7th lowest OBP in the everyday lineup. He has the potential to be a very good leadoff hitter, but the Sox shouldn't be giving away at-bats to potential when they can just as easily let him develop at the bottom of the lineup.
And can anyone explain to me why MDC has been buried in the bullpen?
Keep struggling? They've had one start apiece, and neither was what I'd call a disaster.
| OBP comprised of.. | SPEED
hitting ability obp mentality slugging component speed
N N Y Y gomez
N Y N Y taveras
N Y N Y bourne
Y Y Y N k johnson
Y Y N Y pierre
Y Y Y Y sizemore
Y Y Y Y ellsbury
Y Y Y Y? jeter
can go on, but only 2 (sizemore, ellsbury) are definite 4 checkers, and a N in any category makes a player a non-viable/poor/mediocre leadoff candidate (speed being least important)
and yea, ellsbury is patently inferior to sizemore across the board (excepting speed, where lower obp, more steals, gives ellsbury the edge).
ellsbury had a walk swoon middle of last year. Still overall good mlb obp, so give the guy a chance.
That seems to fit with Tito's MO of not shuffling the lineup around a sub starting. With the lineup Platonicly not mattering that much, I can see the point of letting most guys stay comfortable.
I'll say it again: if there's a problem with the lineup, it's going to be Papi, who looks a little too close to last year's ALCS version for my taste...
The ZiPS spreadsheet. He's tied with Lowell at .345.
Whom is he better than?
Where is any of this from? The average hitter walks 8-9% of the time.
My sentiments exactly, Phil.
If he's going through a dead-arm period and needs to miss a start - or has more significant shoulder problems and needs to go on the DL - then either Bowden or Buchholz should take his place. I'd probably go with Bowden, and wait to call up Buchholz until he's put together some good outings in AAA, and until his call-up is less than temporary. (My reasons, there, are entirely based on my read of the psychological situation of Buchholz and Bowden, and it'd be very hard for me, from this distance, to criticize whichever choice the Sox made.)
I guess it would depend also on who in the minors is on a schedule close enough to Dice-K's that they could start on the necessary day. And to be clear, this is all entirely a hypothetical exercise until the Red Sox report that Dice-K needs to miss a start. Dumping him out the rotation just because of two bad starts, again, oughtn't and won't happen.
Masterson would be a good option if he were stretched out, but he's nearly a year removed from a starter's workload, and I would be surprised if the Red Sox threw him back into that role at a moment's notice. (This is another reason why, for what it's worth, I still think Masterson should be starting at AAA rather than relieving in the majors.)
He did throw 4 innings yesterday - just 1.5 IP less than a typical Dice-K start.
Just how much more stretching does he need?
If the Red Sox have such faith in Masterson's arm that they think he can jump between short relief and starting with only one, unplanned long relief stint in between, that says a lot about his arm (at least as evaluated by the Sox), and gives us some clearer understanding of why Masterson's in the bullpen - the Sox think he can just go out there and do whatever job they ask of him. Pretty cool. That sort of durability and flexibility is a very valuable thing. He'd be like a better Julian Tavarez - give Masterson's face some acne scars, and you've definitely got living dead potential there.
Also, howsabout that clutch outing from Wakefield - the bullpen desperately needed a rest, and he gave 'em nine innings.
EDIT: and by the way, it appears that there definitely was something qualitative to be observed in Lowrie's terrible start: he was hitting with only one wrist. And this is the same wrist he injured last year, so that's not a good thing. The report above says that the Sox haven't yet figured out what's wrong with Lowrie. None of Nick Green, Gil Velazquez, or Travis Denker are natural shortstops, but if they can give the Sox something in the 300/400 range with the bat, that should be good enough, as long as they're not carrying a full-season workload.
Sure, but it wasn't a big game. Teddy and Phil have assured us that he can't win those.
It was semi-big. He did good.
I recall reading an article saying that sinkerballers get a little bit better as they get more tired, unlike every other type of pitcher. The explanation offered was that even as their FB velocity drops, it also starts sinking more, and so remains effective.
Lowrie's terrible start: he was hitting with only one wrist. And this is the same wrist he injured last year
In 2006 it was an ankle. In 2008 it was a wrist. I really hope he's not going to turn out as fragile as JD Drew
Ramon Ramirez has been utterly terrific. I admit to having little idea about the guy at the time of the trade. I am very impressed.
The Sox bullpen has twice bailed out horrible starting pitching performances with several scorless IP in the past week or so. It's a tremendous strength. It's too bad that they have one guy who seems unable to accomplish the role that they've picked out for him.
I hope that Tito does not got locked into the L/R thing as strictly as he looked to be last night. It caused him to leave Ram Ram in too long and it caused him to insert our worst pitcher into a close game.
Are we going to like you when you're angry?
I'm all for Green - ride the hot hand.
One little thing for tonight - who can pitch? Masterson can't be counted on for more than six innings. After that, Saito will be the top reliever. Manny D and Papelbon are unavailable. Okajima and Ramirez have pitched back-to-back days, as well, but at least weren't worked quite as hard. Then you got Jones and Lopez. If there are high leverage situations in tonight's game, it's likely that some poor or tired pitchers will be called on to get the outs.
I kind of expect a big and boring loss tonight, anyway. Both because of illogical feelings about the last two games, and because Justin Masterson will be facing an almost entirely left-handed hitting lineup.
Time for the Sox to bust out their secret weapon tonight, the secretly re-acquired Pedro Martinez, Masterson can pitch the last 4 out of the pen.
2000 5-2
2001 8-2
2002 4-3
2003 7-2
2004 5-3
2005 6-2
2006 6-4
2007 4-1
2008 5-2
Including this year, they are 58-21 on this homestand.
helps explain why Lowell has 22 rbi in 16 games
Not that I like the idea of having a 13 man staff I wouldn't be adverse to Van Every going down and someone from Pawtucket coming to town. If Masterson gets knocked out early Nick Green or Gil Velazquez could wind up pitching tonight.
Sizemore: .726 OPS
Hey, Kevin was right!
At the same time, I love Ellsbury down at the bottom of the order, stealing bases in front of Nick Green and George Kottaras. What we've got right now is the lineup Darren was asking for earlier in the year, and it's a good one.
1. Pedroia
2. Drew
3. Bay
4. Youkilis
5. Ortiz
6. Lowell
7. Varitek
8. Ellsbury
9. Lowrie
I like having Ellsbury and Lowrie back-to-back towards the bottom of the lineup, because it truly restarts the batting order at the bottom. Both can be .360 OBP guys, and if Ellsbury gets on, he and Lowrie can take advantage of Lowrie's bat control, and Ellsbury's speed.
The weakness? Assuming Ortiz is getting back on track (to whatever his new level of performance really is), Lowrie and Varitek are these two slow old guys who hit bombs, play good defense, and have goatees. They're fine for now, but you could see a lot of innings where they struggle to bridge the top and bottom of the order...
Bottom line: Red Sox have the best OBP and the 5th best SLG in the majors, with Ortiz sucking until two weeks ago, and Lowrie hurt. They're fine...
The guys up top can score runs without risking outs on stolen bases. The guys at the bottom of the order aren't as good at it. I'd rather risk outs on the basepaths with lesser hitters up than with good hitters up.
Yeah. This is pretty much the Johnny Damon skill set, which few Sox fans had a problem with. Ideally they'd have a guy like J.D. Drew with speed--but then, few teams have that player.
Wild stuff. Probably mostly coincidence, but leadoff is the one spot where I think batting order position might have some effect. I think pitchers have it drilled into their head that the worst thing that they can do is put the leadoff hitter on base, so they tend to be overly aggressive in throwing strikes. This is what has allowed Alfonso Soriano to do so well there--pitchers do not throw as many out of the zone to him as they should. On the other end of the spectrum is Ellsbury, who just cannot seem to draw any walks in that role. (A counterpoint to this theory is Pedroia, who should benefit from seeing all those strikes but has floundered in the role.)
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