BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: Jacoby Ellsbury: Where Did This Come From?

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1. chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:27 AM (#2512369)

i have no problem handing him the starting CF to start 08. in fact, i have a problem if they don't. hell, he should start in the playoffs--he's better than crisp.

2. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:28 AM (#2512373)

Wouldn't that ruin a number of your shirts?

3. chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:36 AM (#2512379)

Wouldn't that ruin a number of your shirts?

i never got one.

4. PJ Martinez Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:38 AM (#2512381)

Um... small sample size?

5. chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:39 AM (#2512382)

what's up with crisp anyway? is he hurt? his monthly splits are absurd. his lines for april, man, and august are almost identical, as are his june and july lines.

apr .235 .274 .338
may .224 .303 .308
jun .330 .362 .455
jul .323 .391 .505
aug .227 .321 .299

6. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:40 AM (#2512386)

That's not that crazy, I don't think. He was similarly streaky with the Indians, except that the good streaks and bad streaks were both better. Look at that August! Yuck!

7. chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:43 AM (#2512391)

at least he plays a decent center field. i was worried that he wouldn't figure it out after last year.

8. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:46 AM (#2512395)

Yes, and if he maintains something around his current numbers, he's still a valuable player. Just not as good as the 2nd greatest hero in American history.

9. Hugh Jorgan Posted: September 05, 2007 at 04:50 AM (#2512444)

The question about Ellsbury that needs to be asked is why he isn't leading off whilst he has the hot hand? If your choices are Lugo, Coco or Ellsbury right now, it doesn't take a genius to figure out who should be hitting at the top of that order.

10. philly Posted: September 05, 2007 at 05:05 AM (#2512449)

He's not this good, of course, but I've been surprised that the guy I saw in Wilmington couldn't crack a .400 SLG in AAA. It's a decent sized sample, but that .380 is not a good true talent estimate. He's not a slap hitter.

I don't think it's much of a reach to think he can consistently SLG between .420-.440 which would put him at average to slightly above SLG. That's pretty nifty for a very good defender in CF.

11. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 05, 2007 at 05:32 AM (#2512466)

I heart Jacoby.

12. Phil Coorey. Posted: September 05, 2007 at 09:34 AM (#2512508)

I heart Jacoby.

Yeh, he offers a tad more than WMP

13. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 05, 2007 at 11:07 AM (#2512520)

Yeh, he offers a tad more than WMP

And about a billion times more than Hinske

14. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: September 05, 2007 at 12:10 PM (#2512539)

Jacoby Ellsbury: Where Did This Come From?

Hell?

I mean, c'mon already. I'm thinking the Jays catch a break with Manny being out and we end up with Cerebus in his spot. Who let the dogs out indeed.

Is it too much to ask that when somebody replaces Manny F. Ramirez that he have the basic decency to suck???

Ah well. Not like it's costing us a playoff spot or anything.

(grumble)

Best Regards

John

15. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 05, 2007 at 12:14 PM (#2512544)

Is it too much to ask that when somebody replaces Manny F. Ramirez that he have the basic decency to suck???

3 days earlier, you woulda had Eric Hinske.

16. Mister High Standards Posted: September 05, 2007 at 01:35 PM (#2512599)

With Ellsbury, Crisp and Drew out there, the sox have the best outfield defense in baseball.

With the least power.

17. jmurph Posted: September 05, 2007 at 01:54 PM (#2512625)

With the least power.

Seriously. Where are the home runs going to come from? Ortiz, and that's it. Francona is obviously not going to do that. I'm assuming Manny is sitting right now so that he's good to go in October. But hey, if Ellsbury's arm plays in right, I'd be happy to give him some of Drew's at-bats in the playoffs.

18. The Essex Snead Posted: September 05, 2007 at 01:55 PM (#2512628)

I was actually thinking about that last night (an Ellsbury / Crisp / Drew OF). It would certainly make the Red Sox one of Joe Morgan's favorite teams (since, according to his comments this Sunday, the high-average, low-power, run-run-run Angels are the future of hitting), and it'd be great to see Ellsbury & Crisp become death to flying things & cause havoc on the basepaths. But, of course, it's more likely that Coco is the one that moves - I'll miss his glove & speed, but not those obnoxious 600 OPS months.

Maybe they can have Manny play short fielder (or whatever they call the 10th OF in softball) and have Ellsbury & Drew cover the rest of the OF.

19. Cowboy Popup Posted: September 05, 2007 at 02:05 PM (#2512649)

Can such an outburst be random?

Yes.

20. JB H Posted: September 05, 2007 at 02:11 PM (#2512658)

it's more likely that Coco is the one that moves - I'll miss his glove & speed, but not those obnoxious 600 OPS months.

don't really agree. given that manny is prob about 35-40 runs worse than coco/jacoby defensively i think they're all roughly equal players for 2008 (im guessing pecota will project just about no bounceback from manny). manny is the only one making a ton and he prob has the second most trade value out of the three (jacoby first)

the only problem is that there really isnt anything to spend the savings on except arod, which i wouldn't rule out.

trading manny for a varitek replacement or something and signing arod would make for a pretty sick offseason

21. chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 02:15 PM (#2512667)

given that manny is prob about 35-40 runs worse than coco/jacoby defensively

maybe on the road, but not at fenway. there's just not that much ground to cover in LF at fenway.

22. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 05, 2007 at 02:19 PM (#2512671)

maybe on the road, but not at fenway. there's just not that much ground to cover in LF at fenway.

Seems easy to me. Sox sign A-Rod and then go for an A-Rod/Ortiz/Ellsbury/Manny/Youk 3B/LF/DH/1B rotation. You figure that at Fenway Manny can play LF, Ortiz DH, Youk at first and A-Rod at third and sit Ellsbury. Then on the road you stick Ellsbury in LF, put Ortiz at 1B, DH Manny, A-Rod at 3B and sit Youk.

I mean, sure it would cost a small fortune and totally waste the talents of two young players, but hey, that's not my problem.

23. Nasty Nate Posted: September 05, 2007 at 02:20 PM (#2512672)

you guys are insane

24. chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 02:23 PM (#2512676)

25. The Essex Snead Posted: September 05, 2007 at 02:51 PM (#2512698)

JB H - while the projected offensive / defensive splits between Coco & Manny might give them the same value, I was thinking that Crisp's age, skill set, and (most importantly) salary would make him easier to move.

I like how RB's proposed rotation features a player that doesn't rotate.

26. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:04 PM (#2512710)

With Ellsbury, Crisp and Drew out there, the sox have the best outfield defense in baseball.

Right now, against RHP, I'd start Moss/Ellsbury/Drew. Against LHP, Ellsbury/Coco/Kielty. Swap out one of Ellsbury/Coco for Manny once he comes back healthy.

Seems easy to me. Sox sign A-Rod and then go for an A-Rod/Ortiz/Ellsbury/Manny/Youk 3B/LF/DH/1B rotation. You figure that at Fenway Manny can play LF, Ortiz DH, Youk at first and A-Rod at third and sit Ellsbury. Then on the road you stick Ellsbury in LF, put Ortiz at 1B, DH Manny, A-Rod at 3B and sit Youk.

No. We need to get rid of our deadweight, not sign anybody retarded next season, fill all our holes using farm (and international FAs), and then get our hands dirty in the Johan Santana sweepstakes next season.

27. Dave Cyprian Posted: September 05, 2007 at 06:19 PM (#2513030)

From the Herald:

“The last month, when I got called back down (to Pawtucket), I started working on using my legs more and I’ve been hitting the ball a lot harder,” Ellsbury said.

28. yakyutoo Posted: September 05, 2007 at 08:32 PM (#2513219)

He has to be on the postseason roster, doesn't he? At the very least, a defensive replacement and pinch runner.

29. Dave Cyprian Posted: September 06, 2007 at 02:17 PM (#2513904)

honestly, at this point, I wouldn't be unhappy if Jacoby was assigned to start in place of any Red Sox starting outfielder

30. Mike Green Posted: September 06, 2007 at 04:10 PM (#2514038)

Ellsbury's home run off Halladay was impressive. He is young enough to be naturally adding some power, and I think that is what is happening, although I wouldn't plug .740 or .640 or .540 into your 2008 slugging projections for him. Nice young player with a balance of skills, but more likely to hit .310 than to hit 20 homers in a season, at least for the next couple of years.

31. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: September 06, 2007 at 04:29 PM (#2514063)

He has to be on the postseason roster, doesn't he? At the very least, a defensive replacement and pinch runner.

I think their postseason 4th OF is pretty much Kielty. Otherwise basically their whole bench is LH.

32. Bowling Baseball Fan Posted: September 06, 2007 at 04:41 PM (#2514072)

A power spike by a rookie and nobody mentions Kevin Maas? Slipping.

33. Hurdle's Heroes (SuperBaes) Posted: September 07, 2007 at 07:49 PM (#2515537)

A power spike by a rookie and nobody mentions Kevin Maas?

I love Kevin Maas.

34. Darren

Posted: September 08, 2007 at 02:36 AM (#2516246)

I dunno, it's different from Kevin Maas. This guy is a slight little speedster who hit 2 HR all year in AAA. Just doesn't fit that profile. Invoking Brady Anderson would make more sense.

35. Textbook Editor Posted: September 08, 2007 at 02:45 AM (#2516249)

Here's one attempt at a postseason roster, at least for the ALDS:

INF - Youkilis, Pedroia, Lugo, Lowell, Cora, Ortiz, Hinske
C - Varitek, Cash/MIrabelli
OF - Manny, Coco, Drew, Kielty, Ellsbury
SP - Matsusaka, Beckett, Schilling, Wakefield
RP - Lester, Papelbon, Okajima, Buchholz, Gagne, MDC, Timlin

OK, I'd go LOOGY-less, but if you wanted to swap Hinske for Lopez or make Lester the de facto LOOGY and keep Hinske I'm fine with it.

Buchholz and Ellsbury come in courtesy the F-Rod loophole.

I'd also maybe start Lester in a Game 4 over Wakefield, but it all depends on which hot hand (or cold hand) you want to ride.

36. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 08, 2007 at 02:52 AM (#2516251)

YAY JACOBY DEFENSE

I'd take out Hinske and put in Moss.

37. Textbook Editor Posted: September 08, 2007 at 02:53 AM (#2516252)

Hmmm... Lester was called back up on 9/2 so he'd need to be a loophole guy as well... Which means I think we want Mirabelli to not come back, since him being on the DL 8/31 means we had 3 "loophole" slots open (Clement, Donnelly & Mirabelli). We'd need all 3 slots to get Buchholz, Ellsbury & Lester all on the playoff roster.

38. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 08, 2007 at 03:02 AM (#2516259)

39. Darren

Posted: September 08, 2007 at 03:03 AM (#2516261)

TBE,

Great minds thinks alike. I just posted a playoff roster thread.

40. Textbook Editor Posted: September 08, 2007 at 03:04 AM (#2516262)

Excellent. I think there's a lot to hash out here.

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