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   1. 1k5v3L Posted: July 28, 2006 at 04:00 AM (#2115216)
Snyder appears to be the second coming of Elmer Dessens.
   2. Raleigh Horn Posted: July 28, 2006 at 12:59 PM (#2115369)
4IP is probably around twice through the lineup (assuming ~6 baserunners)
   3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 28, 2006 at 01:35 PM (#2115387)
Yup. Snyder had major shoulder surgery that caused him to miss all of 2004, and went on the DL for a shoulder strain in 2005. My guess is that he's only good for 60-80 pitches. One could also make the argument that his fastball/curveball/nothing arsenal is not good enough to get through the lineup more than twice, but either way, Darren's prescription sounds exactly right to me.

I've actually been moderately impressed with Snyder. His curveball is a major league pitch, and he can hump the fastball in at 90-91, which is enough to get some outs.

He's got some very significant weaknesses - I mean, his ERA is over 7 and all - but I think there's a useful pitcher there.
   4. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: July 28, 2006 at 02:20 PM (#2115412)
I agree. I watched the last game closely and his stuff seemed very good (I said so in chatter, too) and he locating well. Then Frank Thomas occurred. Twice.

I still think he looks like Bronson Arroyo from behind.
   5. Hungry Hungry Hipolito Pichardo Posted: July 28, 2006 at 02:56 PM (#2115431)
Watching him, there seems to be reason for optimism, but let's not kid ourselves...he hasn't been making it through the order well twice. Here's his numbers (without the Rangers game). Timely double plays have limited the damage somewhat, but this still isn't pretty.

**SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT**
Time through order     Avg    OBP    SLG    OPS    PAs    GIDP
1st time        .257    .278    .371    .649    36    2
2nd time        .353    .538    .529    1.068    36    2
3rd time        .462    .588    .462    1.050    17    1


One time through the order, though, would still make him a good long man. Don't know whether his injury history would preclude him from working in this role...
   6. Hungry Hungry Hipolito Pichardo Posted: July 28, 2006 at 02:57 PM (#2115433)
It looked so pretty in the preview....*sigh*
   7. villageidiom Posted: July 28, 2006 at 03:59 PM (#2115489)
I think Snyder generally has trouble (a) around 60 pitches, and/or (b) with runners on. His first start against the Nats he only threw 67 pitches, and they didn't have too many baserunners to begin with. The other games he started to have control issues in the neighborhood of 60 pitches. That generally coincided with the bottom of the order the second time around, but wasn't always that way.

When he has had runners on there's a higher walk rate, more balls in the dirt, etc. He has a propensity for the GIDP so I'm guessing he throws the sinker into high gear with the force play on. Of course, if he's not locating the sinker - or if hitters are expecting it and laying off the low pitches - he's going to have trouble unless he shifts to another pitch or locates better. Also, when he's throwing lots of pickoff throws he seems to have more trouble locating pitches.

If I had to guess, I think he gets a bit flustered with runners on. The Kerrigan approach - completely ignore baserunners, just get the batter out - seemed to work well for Derek Lowe. (That, and staying sober.) Perhaps that's the direction they need to go with Snyder.
   8. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 01, 2006 at 03:16 AM (#2120989)
Point, Darren.
   9. Darren Posted: August 01, 2006 at 03:21 AM (#2120998)
I am en fuego tonight!
   10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 01, 2006 at 01:09 PM (#2121245)
I think that Snyder ought to remain in the bullpen. He'll need some special care out there, as he is most likely still on a starter's schedule and needs a starter's warmup time, but he looks like a damn good guy to send out there to go through the lineup once or (at most) twice.

The problem, of course, is that there is no replacement fifth starter in whom we should have any level of confidence. Jason Johnson gets Snyder's start today. He finally threw seven shutout innings in Pawtucket his last time out, so maybe he won't suck. but I doubt it. Gabbard had a bad start in his return to AAA, and he'd be going on four days rest, so he's unavailable. Both Alvarez and Pauley are off schedule and mired in terrible slumps.

The Sox will need a 5th starter straight through the month, with no opportunities I see to skip over the spot. 1st, 6th, 12th, 18th, 22nd, 27th. And they have to use at least two different starters for this time, because the double-header means the 5th starter spot comes up on the 18th and then again on short rest on the 22nd. Wakefield is technically eligible to return today, though obviously he won't - does anyone know his timetable?

Charlie Zink has to be on the list now, too, just by virtue of attrition in the Pawtucket rotation. He's got more BB than K, but his H and HR numbers are down and I think you stand a better chance of getting lucky with a gimmick pitcher call-up than with a traditional guy. Would the Sox risk giving Zink his MLB debut against the Yanks in a pennant race? Would they maybe think of calling him up for the 12th as a tryout?
   11. Hungry Hungry Hipolito Pichardo Posted: August 01, 2006 at 04:58 PM (#2121543)
The Sox will need a 5th starter straight through the month

They'll need a 4th starter too.
   12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 01, 2006 at 05:06 PM (#2121557)
Hey, I'm gonna believe in David Wells. I think he showed a lot in what was effectively a rehab start, and he'll improve his command as he works back into shape.

And, yeah, the shape I'm referring to is an ellipse.
   13. esturminator_CT Posted: August 01, 2006 at 05:22 PM (#2121574)
Darren - I've had the same assessment . . . although I figure him more as a 3 inning, 45 pitch guy, one time through the line-up - as thus, as you pointed out, a very serviceable middle reliever. Glad to see him used that way last night and come up successful, even earning a win in relief of Boomer. Just curious where the FO stands on #4 and #5 starters moving forward. Like MCoA, would like to see Zink given a shot to muck with tthe timing of batters for a few starts. With the success of Wakefield against the Yanks over the years, wouldn't mind seeing him throw against the pinstripers. Still hopeful on Boomer. At least he hung around for 90 pitches and kept it within two runs to allow the comeback. Perhaps he can still be a #5? Going against other lesser pitchers perhaps he can burn some innings and keep games within reach. He seems succeptible to the long ball, but so are Schilling and Beckett and they are holding it together.
   14. Hungry Hungry Hipolito Pichardo Posted: August 01, 2006 at 05:53 PM (#2121608)
Still hopeful on Boomer. At least he hung around for 90 pitches and kept it within two runs to allow the comeback. Perhaps he can still be a #5? Going against other lesser pitchers perhaps he can burn some innings and keep games within reach. He seems succeptible to the long ball, but so are Schilling and Beckett and they are holding it together.

I would hope our standard for 4th/5th starter is "keep it within a few runs on those nights that we score 6 through 4 innings." Interestingly, Wells is much more susceptible to XBH than I would have expected.

Wells, 2003-5: .283/.301/.432, 733 OPS, .139 ISO
Schill, 03-05: .252/.285/.402, 687 OPS, .150 ISO
Beckett: .238/.305/.371, 676 OPS, .133 ISO

I'm certainly hopeful he can regain some command and be successful. It's not too fanboyish to think that he was gassed in the 5th and just shouldn't have been out there for 96 pitches. But there were a lot of hard-hit balls out there. Let's see what we get from him this weekend.
   15. Hungry Hungry Hipolito Pichardo Posted: August 01, 2006 at 05:58 PM (#2121618)
That looks snarkier than I intended. I'm not writing off Wells by any means, inauspicious start or otherwise.
   16. Mattbert Posted: August 01, 2006 at 08:51 PM (#2121863)
Boomer was pitching to the scoreboard. He's just like a modern day Sandy Koufax, I tell you.

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