Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Sox Therapy > Discussion
Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Friday, January 12, 2018

Laugh With Me, Not At Me

With the latest news that J.D. Martinez is willing to hold out until 2025 to ensure his 15 year, $400 million contract (note: numbers may not be exact) I thought it might be a good time to give some thought to possible trade options for the Sox.  As with any exercise of this sort these are meant to be rough estimates rather than “Team X should give the Red Sox all their good players.”

Red Sox get: Jose Abreu
White Sox get: Jay Groome, Josh Ockimey, Rusney Castillo and some money

Would I if I was the White Sox? It really hinges on what I think of Groome.  In a year and a half since being drafted he has not really done much yet.  Reading between the lines people still seem high on him.  Ockimey gives a potential replacement (though not right away) for Chicago and Castillo gives them an MLB ready player.  Ockimey is a guy I like.  He is a big strong kid with a pretty swing and has hit every step of the way and if you want to dream his Salem (Hi A) numbers are not dissimilar from Anthony Rizzo’s though believe me I’m not saying he will be that good.

Red Sox Fit: Awfully good.  Abreu is under club control this year and next and at just $13 million in 2018 doesn’t destroy the Sox luxury tax situation.

Red Sox get: Khris Davis
Athletics get: Michael Chavis, Sam Travis and Blake Swihart

Would I if I was the Athletics? I don’t know.  Davis is a guy who “feels” like a flash in the pan but he’s been rolling for about 2 1/2 years now and he is younger than J.D. Martinez.  Travis and Chavis may not be a good fit for the A’s with Olson, Chapman and Healy manning the corners.  I’m higher than most on Swihart but social consciousness aside I’d be inclined to take him over Maxwell if I was Oakland.

Red Sox Fit: Off the cuff I want to say good but I wonder.  The Sox built a contact team last year and while trading some Ks for home runs is not a bad thing I wonder if Davis would blend well with the offense. I can see him being public enemy number one a week into the season after a 1 for 22 with 9 Ks start.

Red Sox get: Joey Votto
Reds get: Andrew Benintendi, Jay Groome, Michael Chavis and Hanley Ramirez (to make up a bit of the money)

Would I if I was the Reds? I would listen.  Benintendi is a hell of a player, he has five more years of club control on the cheap and can play centerfield.  I think what would give me pause is the fairly pedestrian collection behind him.  The Sox farm system is not bad but it lacks that second tier player you’d typically need for a deal like this.  Squeezing Groome and Chavis (both low top 100 prospects in all likelihood) feels like an OOTP “let’s collect enough potential future WAR to overwhelm the AI” move. If I’m the Reds I probably think (rightly so) I can get two top 50 guys while the Sox’ selling point would be the certainty of Benintendi.

Red Sox Fit: Not as good as you’d think.  I mean it’s Joey Freakin’ Votto so hooray.  However this move means the Sox are still short a starting position player and now it’s left field instead of DH/1B.

Red Sox get: Wil Myers
Padres get: Bryan Mata, Bobby Dalbec and Ty Buttrey


Would I if I was the Padres?
Meh, probably not.  Myers is on a pretty affordable long term deal and the centerpiece here is the 18 year old Mata.  Everyone seems pretty geared up for him but again, 18 years old.  The probably for the Sox here is the lack of MLB ready talent.  This trade probably makes a Hosmer signing happen which kind of makes shoving Sam Travis in this deal a pointless endeavor.

Red Sox Fit: Myers is a great fit.  Affordable, can DH, play first base or the outfield (though maybe not right field and is a slugging righty bat.  I just don’t see an enticing deal though the Sox and Padres have linked up a couple of times since Dombrowski’s arrival.

Red Sox get: Andrew McCutchen, Josh Harrison
Pirates get: Andrew Benintendi, Jay Groome, Sam Travis, Blake Swihart

Would I if I was the Pirates? The Buccos seem determined to at least listen on every trade offer this winter and getting Benintendi for McCutchen is a good start.  If one of Groome or Travis pans out that makes moving Harrison worthwhile.

Red Sox Fit: Meh.  Honestly I don’t think I do this if I’m the Sox.  Cutch is coming off a 2.5 WAR season, he’s going to be 31 and he’s expensive.  Do you want to say with any certainty that a straight up Benintendi for McCutchen deal is a good one for the Red Sox?  Adding Harrison is nice given the concerns regarding Pedroia’s health and he could probably slot to left field with McCutchen at DH when Pedey returns.

So there you go.  Feel free to mock. Like I said I’m not sure if these are good deals for either or both sides but I figure it’s worth considering what options the Sox may have if they can’t land JDM.

Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: January 12, 2018 at 04:12 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: January 15, 2018 at 03:25 PM (#5606763)
I think the Pirates do Cutch for Benintendi in a heartbeat. I mean, they just traded Gerrit Cole for Joe Musgrove, right? I also feel certain they'd do Harrison for Groome+.
   2. dave h Posted: January 15, 2018 at 03:36 PM (#5606770)
Isn't Benintendi one of the most valuable contracts in baseball right now? I know he was overshadowed last year but his season didn't dispel his high prospect status. He was average+ in his age 22 season. I don't think I use him as a centerpiece for any of the post-peak players, at least.
   3. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: January 15, 2018 at 03:45 PM (#5606777)
Totally agree.

If it were possible in real life, I'd trade a Benintendi-centered package for Votto. But not for much else.

I think LF would be much easier to sort out in this offseason than 1B (assuming you don't want to repeat the Lackey/Crawford/Hanley/Sandoval type mistake with JD Martinez, as I do not).

This thread on Ellsbury is a lot of fun right now - and I think Ellsbury would be a great fit coming back to Boston for 450-500 PAs in LF this season, though I also doubt if, in the real world, the MFY's would be willing to eat salary to trade him to the Sox.
   4. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: January 15, 2018 at 03:52 PM (#5606780)
The “problem” for the Sox is they’ve been so good at developing and promoting talent that the system is a but bare. The positive is that they are a damned good team with two consecutive division titles to their credit so while it’s tough to make those trades that’s largely because they don’t have much in the way of holes. One thing I wanted to do was just give some thoughts to what kind of deals they could make.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 15, 2018 at 03:58 PM (#5606787)
Seems like McCutchen is a Giant, so scratch #5.
   6. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: January 15, 2018 at 05:25 PM (#5606884)
For Bryan Reynolds and Kyle Crick, apparently. So, yeah, Benintendi would have been too much. And Groome may be too much for Harrison - he's probably more valuable than either of the guys they got from San Francisco. And now that I know that, I'm a lot more interested in Harrison than I was before. Between him and Holt, you got pretty much every position covered from both sides of the plate.
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: January 15, 2018 at 05:47 PM (#5606904)
Maybe the McCutchen trade will start the dominos going for free agent outfielders...
   8. karlmagnus Posted: January 15, 2018 at 06:34 PM (#5606919)
I think I'd take Abreu before JD Martinez. He's a 140 OPS+ hitter against 130, is only 7 months older, and is at least a 4 WAR player consistently. He's only cheap for one more year, but if Chicago would release him for Groome plus filler, I'd take it -- solves the 1B/DH problem, probably for several years if we can do a deal with him.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 15, 2018 at 07:11 PM (#5606933)
I think I'd take Abreu before JD Martinez. He's a 140 OPS+ hitter against 130,

I'm pretty sure 2011-13 don't tell us much about Martinez's current hitting. If you look at the last 4 years for each, you get Martinez 149 OPS+, Abreu 142.
   10. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: January 16, 2018 at 10:03 AM (#5607150)
Not entirely relevant but FanGraphs has a short look at the farm system. Nice to see De La Guerra get some love. He reminds me a bit of Carlos Asuaje who I loved.
   11. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 16, 2018 at 11:32 AM (#5607215)
I think I'd take Abreu before JD Martinez. He's a 140 OPS+ hitter against 130, is only 7 months older, and is at least a 4 WAR player consistently. He's only cheap for one more year, but if Chicago would release him for Groome plus filler, I'd take it -- solves the 1B/DH problem, probably for several years if we can do a deal with him.


I agree somewhat with your thinking here - but what makes you think Abreu is going to forgo his one chance at FA? He'll be eligible for the first time after 2020 at the age of 32 - maybe the Sox could extend his contract, but I can't imagine Abreu would agree to anything less than market rate.
   12. karlmagnus Posted: January 16, 2018 at 04:00 PM (#5607552)
Sorry, I misread his contract status -- his contract expires at the end of 2018, but he's then arb-eligible. But isn't FA after 2019 -- he will have had 6 seasons then? In any case, an expensive FA at 31 or 32 is lower risk than one at 29 or 30, because the market-clearing contract is shorter. It's these 26-year-olds like Stanton and Harper than will bankrupt a team if they guess wrong. So Abreu is definitely a better deal, because if he's lousy in 2018/19, you ditch him, and if he's good, 5 years will certainly get a free agency deal done before or after 2020, even if it's 5/180.
   13. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 17, 2018 at 11:07 AM (#5607973)
Harrison is now asking out of Pitt. Still think he'd be a great fit for the Sox, no clue what it would take to get him though.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 17, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5607996)
Harrison is now asking out of Pitt. Still think he'd be a great fit for the Sox, no clue what it would take to get him though.

Given the Cole and McCutchen trades, shouldn't be much. He'd also fit great on the Yankees or Mets.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
aleskel
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

A Pleasant Trip So Far
(54 - 10:55pm, Jun 23)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine

Where Are We?
(15 - 5:02pm, Jun 15)
Last: Darren

It's Getting Drafty
(18 - 8:37pm, Jun 14)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine

That Was Fun
(38 - 2:15pm, Jun 08)
Last: Darren

Lining Up The Minors
(29 - 9:53am, Jun 06)
Last: villageidiom

So That Happened
(7 - 6:53pm, May 30)
Last: Darren

At The Quarter Pole
(41 - 5:38pm, May 25)
Last: villageidiom

Enjoy This
(35 - 7:50pm, May 22)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine

El Slumpo
(15 - 11:32pm, May 11)
Last: Answer Guy, outhacking you by a mile.

First Test Passed
(93 - 3:58pm, May 05)
Last: cercopithecus aethiops

Hope Springs Eternal (Sox Therapy Predictions)
(30 - 12:05pm, Apr 27)
Last: villageidiom

Are The Angels A Real Team?
(32 - 8:20am, Apr 27)
Last: villageidiom

So Far So Good
(65 - 9:57pm, Apr 15)
Last: SoSH U at work

Opening Day Overreaction
(29 - 1:45pm, Apr 04)
Last: jmurph

Roster Update
(32 - 4:17pm, Mar 26)
Last: jacksone (AKA It's OK...)

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.2616 seconds
40 querie(s) executed