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   1. OCD SS Posted: March 08, 2009 at 10:41 PM (#3096104)
It's almost double the contract for Carmona, who had similar service time accrued. I thought they might get him for a bit more than that or what Haren signed his first deal for, but I still like this signing, even if it is on the high side.
   2. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 08, 2009 at 10:43 PM (#3096105)
Didn't Carmona get only 4 years? The extra year is a year of FA, which naturally would cost more.
   3. OCD SS Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:06 PM (#3096119)
Yes, he did, although as it turns out he has 3 pretty reasonable option years attached (as long as he doesn't pitch like he did last year):

08:$0.5M, 09:$2.75M, 10:$4.9M, 11:$6.1M, 12:$7M club option, 13:$9M club option, 14:$12M club option


I can't see that extra year bumping it this deal by that much. I'd be surprised if when the actual numbers come out it isn't a little more beneficial to the club...
   4. Danny Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:10 PM (#3096120)
Didn't Carmona get only 4 years? The extra year is a year of FA, which naturally would cost more.

Yeah, but Carmona's deal also had three club options for $7M, $9M, and $12M.

Edit, since OCD beat me:

I'd guess it's something like
2009: $1MM
2010: $3.5MM
2011: $5.5MM
2012: $8MM
2013: $12MM
2014: $13MM (option)

For reference, Joe Blanton got $3.7MM and $5.5MM in his first two years of arbitration.
   5. RJ in TO Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:22 PM (#3096123)
From Cots, for Carmona:

# 4 years/$15M (2008-11), plus 2012-14 club options

* signed extension with Cleveland 4/10/08, replacing 1 year/$0.4578M contract signed 2/28/08
* $0.75M signing bonus
* 08:$0.5M, 09:$2.75M, 10:$4.9M, 11:$6.1M, 12:$7M club option, 13:$9M club option, 14:$12M club option
* 2012 option may increase by $1M based with top 5 finishes in 2010-2011 Cy Young voting
* 2013 and 2014 options may increase by $2M each with top 5 finishes in previous two years' Cy Young voting
   6. Darren Posted: March 09, 2009 at 01:41 AM (#3096243)
Wasn't Carmona one year further from FA? It's similar, yes, but not really comparable.

The big comps that they were using on SOSH were Ervin Santana (a year more service time) and Scott Baker. Santana got 4/30 and Baker got 4/15. He looks to be right about where he should be here.
   7. Dave Cyprian Posted: March 09, 2009 at 02:56 AM (#3096362)
Throw those bums the Frisbee Lestah!
   8. WillYoung Posted: March 09, 2009 at 03:45 AM (#3096403)
That Scott Baker contract is quite the bargain now.
   9. Darren Posted: March 09, 2009 at 03:51 AM (#3096416)
It's a good one alright.
   10. JB H Posted: March 09, 2009 at 07:25 AM (#3096531)
This contract makes Pedroia's 6/40 deal (with the same service time) seem even more ridiculous.
   11. OCD SS Posted: March 09, 2009 at 12:01 PM (#3096567)
Wasn't Carmona one year further from FA? It's similar, yes, but not really comparable.


No, both contracts are buying out the player's last year of club control, and all 3 years of arb. Carmona had already signed a slightly lesser deal for '08, but I don't think that's enough difference in leverage to explain the difference in dollars
   12. veer bender Posted: March 09, 2009 at 02:58 PM (#3096673)
While buying out FA years could potentially save big money, I think the real benefit of these long term deals is the effect it has on luxury tax calculations down the road. At least I hope that's what the team is thinking, as it would indicate a plan to drop big money in free agency/trades in coming years, and some inside knowledge that the next CBA will have a similar luxury tax structure.

It's certainly possible that this is part of the motivation for the front office. They may have decided after Teixeira signed that they would be well under the tax threshold this year, making it a good idea to "pay for" some of the future AAV of the young guys now.
   13. ekogan Posted: March 09, 2009 at 03:42 PM (#3096726)
Quick, back of the envelope calculation. Lester was a 5.1 win pitcher last year according to Fangraphs. Let's say he's going to be 4 to 5 win pitcher going forward. The Sox are paying for his arb years and one year of free agency so they are paying for 40%+60%+80%+100%=280% of Lester's yearly value. 4 wins*280% = 11.2 wins, 5 wins * 280% = 14 wins. 11.2--14 wins * $4.4 mil/win = $49 -- $61 million. The Sox are getting from $20 to $30 million dollars in surplus value that could've been Lester's if he was a gambling man like Papelbon. Plus the option year gets them another $5-9 million of value. Or to put it another way, the Sox are paying somewhere from $2 to $2.8 million per win. That's the way to run a franchise.
   14. 1k5v3L Posted: March 10, 2009 at 02:20 AM (#3097507)
http://fullcount.weei.com/general/lester-speaks-nothing-to-see-heremove-along-people/

on Lester, following a 2.1 inning outing in which he allowed four runs (just one earned) on four hits, just met with the media to discuss his contract situation, his outing, his contract situation and his contract situation. A report on Yahoo! Sports on Sunday said that the left-hander and club had agreed to terms on a five-year, $30 million deal with a $13 million option for 2014. (For some context about how such a deal would compare to other long-term deals signed by pitchers before they reached arbitration, click here.)

The left-hander seemed somewhat bemused by the corresponding inquiries, since he really had nothing to report beyond the fact that he’d like to sign a long-term deal, but none is finalized, and so he has little interest in discussing what he seemed to paint as a hypothetical.

“Until the ink is on the paper,” Lester said, “nothing is final.”
   15. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: March 10, 2009 at 02:43 AM (#3097543)
Lester is staying at his house in the Dominican Republic until he gets a better offer from the Nationals.
   16. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: March 10, 2009 at 02:23 PM (#3097814)
Let's say he's going to be 4 to 5 win pitcher going forward. The Sox are paying for his arb years and one year of free agency so they are paying for 40%+60%+80%+100%=280% of Lester's yearly value. 4 wins*280% = 11.2 wins, 5 wins * 280% = 14 wins. 11.2--14 wins * $4.4 mil/win = $49 -- $61 million. The Sox are getting from $20 to $30 million dollars in surplus value that could've been Lester's if he was a gambling man like Papelbon.
Obviously, if Jon Lester is one of the 10 best pitchers in the league, year-in and year-out, this would be an amazing contract. It's precisely because that's not known, nor is it projected, nor would I project it to be case, that Lester would be looking for a contract in this range.

I think Lester's a heckuva pitcher and likely to outpitch his projections, but I would immediately take the under on Lester accumulating 22-23 wins of value in the next five years. Lester could have a very successful half decade and still fail to reach that level of production.
   17. ekogan Posted: March 10, 2009 at 03:55 PM (#3097924)
Obviously, if Jon Lester is one of the 10 best pitchers in the league, year-in and year-out, this would be an amazing contract. It's precisely because that's not known, nor is it projected, nor would I project it to be case, that Lester would be looking for a contract in this range.

Okay, the Sox are paying Lester as if he was a $30 mil/280%/$4.4 mil/win = 2.5 win pitcher. That's a pretty safe bet. Every projection system thinks he's going to be better, and they underrate Lester because they don't know he recovered from a one-time medical problem, cancer.
   18. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: March 10, 2009 at 04:01 PM (#3097934)
Okay, the Sox are paying Lester as if he was a $30 mil/280%/$4.4 mil/win = 2.5 win pitcher. That's a pretty safe bet.
Absolutely. Well, "safe" isn't precisely the word I'd use, but it's definitely a good bet (if a contract along those lines gets signed, per #14). It's not, though, a bet that projects to pay off at the rate you claimed in the previous post. That's all.
   19. DKDC Posted: March 10, 2009 at 07:14 PM (#3098327)
Every projection system thinks he's going to be better [than a 2.5 win pitcher]


Chone has him worth a total of 8 wins over the final 4 years of this contract, which would be paying him $5.6MM a win.

This is a fine deal, and it's a no-brainer for a team with the resources of the Red Sox, but it's no bargain.
   20. dave h Posted: March 10, 2009 at 11:31 PM (#3098678)
Chone has his 90th percentile projection quite a bit worse than his actual performance last year. That's quite the regression. Do the other projection systems agree? Of course they don't realize he recovered from cancer, but I'm still surprised to see that. As I recall, ZIPS was also pessimistic.

Yup, it's a little bit better but not much. I'd take the over on 8 wins in 4 years, even with the possibility of injury.
   21. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: March 11, 2009 at 12:10 AM (#3098714)
Lester signed to 1-year deal.

Still can negotiate a long term deal, though.
   22. Darren Posted: March 11, 2009 at 04:15 AM (#3099333)
Wow, Chone really drops him off a lot for a guy who's in his mid-20s. I can't imagine that any contract for a pitcher is going to look good to that system.


I think Lester's a heckuva pitcher and likely to outpitch his projections, but I would immediately take the under on Lester accumulating 22-23 wins of value in the next five years. Lester could have a very successful half decade and still fail to reach that level of production.


I agree with this whole-heartedly. The guy over at Fangraphs was evaluating the trade with the assumption that Lester would be worth 3.5-4 wins/year, or about 17.5 to 19 over the course of the contract. That sounded high to me to, and it was admittedly a guess by them. If I were to guess, I'd tack 1/2 win onto his Chone projection, which has him at 2.7 wins for 09. 3.2 * 5 = 16 wins. Is that worth $30 mil. considering everything? Who really knows, but it sounds pretty reasonable.

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