Let’s Look at Josh Hamilton and Three Years
So the big rumor is that Seattle and others are trying to get Josh Hamilton to sign for three years. And the big reaction has been, “If anyone signs him for that, it should be my team!” That presents a couple of issues. First, even if Hamilton signs for three years, only one team is going to get him, and everyone else is going to be mad at their team. Second, what would constitute a good three-year deal?
The point of a three-year deal is that you’re getting the best years, and if the player bombs, you don’t overpay by that much—not as much as if it was five-year deal anyway. So, let’s start with what Hamilton’s worth. Stealing from MCOA’s work in the Three Outfielders thread and assuming about $6M per win, here’s what you get:
Year 1, 4.7 WAR, $28.2M
Year 2, 4.2 WAR, $25.2M
Year 3, 3.7 WAR, $22.2M
Year 4, 3.2 WAR, $19.2M
Year 5, 2.7 WAR, $16.2M
So for three years, you’re looking at a value of $76M or so. If you can get him for that, great! But it seems like with so many teams interested, you’re more likely to pay about 3/$85M. So you overpay by $9M, but you’re not on the hook for a long, bad contract. But a contract at 5/111
would not (in theory) be an overpay at all and would seem a lot more attractive to Hamilton. Why not go that route? Sure, you take on a bit more risk but you a) actually get the player and b) you get him for two more years at a comparative bargain.
Even if you think Hamilton’s likely to age worse than expected, say at 3/4 of a WAR per year, the five-year deal is still appealing. Three-year value would be $71M so you’re overpaying by $10M on a 3/$81M deal. Offer him 5/$100M you’re still only overpaying by $4M and you still have a more attractive offer.
Overall, it looks to me like the team that really wants Hamilton should bite the bullet and offer him a deal of 5/$100M to 5/$110M. Of course, the team that REALLY wants him should offer him a out-clause after 1 year. That team will likely get the best year of the rest of his career and will not have to pay him long-term.
Darren
Posted: December 07, 2012 at 10:31 PM |
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1. The District Attorney Posted: December 08, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4319928)Certainly some cities have a more aggressive media than others. But is that ultimately what we're talking about? And every city has bars, right?
I'd be interested to hear how people are coming at this, both with regard to the Red Sox and in general.
(Not so much downplaying his issues as agreeing that every city will allow you to be drunk if you choose to.)
I'd be fine with 5/$100 because it isn't my money but if 5/$100 would get it done I would just assume there'd be at least 1 other team willing to go higher.
Where'd you see this? I would endorse this.
If the Phillies weren't interested in that deal before dealing Worley for Revere, they're definitely not interested in it now. So it really doesn't matter if the Sox are willing to make the offer or absorb Lee's contract because it's not happening.
Though I get the concerns about his age, I'm not sure a normal aging pattern would apply here. He didn't reach the majors until he was 26 due to his other issues, so I'm not sure if he would be as "worn out" as a similarly aged player. Then again, who really knows how the substance abuse will play out?? I'm only speculating here, but I think if he can be had for 4/108 or so, then I think the team should go for that.
So if you're a yes on 4/108, I'm guessing you agree that 5/111 makes sense? And don't forget the out clause! We must have the out clause!
As for how Hamilton will age, we just don't know. I was thinking of course of the more baseball related injuries one sustains through constant playing. As I said, I have no idea how the substance abuse will play out with respect to the aging process.
All I know is that this team needs some 4 WAR players who have the possibility of posting 6 WAR seasons or they are staring at 79 win seasons. Of course some more starting pitching would be nice, but not sure what Sanchez will be offered now that Greinke is overpaid. Will someone offer Sanchez 5/75?
For next year? Unless Reynolds's defense is better than I think it is, I wouldn't count on him for much more than 0.5 a win or so. I think that's too much for Hamilton to make up. On the other hand, for 2014+ you would have Hamilton/vacancy, which could be filled with someone better than Mark Reynolds.
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