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   1. The District Attorney Posted: December 08, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4319928)
I kind of wonder how people are thinking about the "avoid substance abuse temptation" issue that is often brought up with respect to Hamilton.

Certainly some cities have a more aggressive media than others. But is that ultimately what we're talking about? And every city has bars, right?

I'd be interested to hear how people are coming at this, both with regard to the Red Sox and in general.
   2. Blastin Posted: December 08, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4319942)
Maybe they should put a team in Salt Lake City and send him there if that's such a concern.

(Not so much downplaying his issues as agreeing that every city will allow you to be drunk if you choose to.)
   3. Nasty Nate Posted: December 08, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4319943)
Everything you wrote makes sense. I've just prepared myself so I will not yet again surprised when a FA contract is much bigger than anticipated. I think when a team bites the bullet, as you say, it will be for a bigger deal than 5/100 or 5/110.
   4. karlmagnus Posted: December 08, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4319949)
Let's get Anibal instead. Otherwise we've just blown $40mm on Victorino.
   5. Darren Posted: December 08, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4319959)
Gee, I wonder why km shows up in every thread advocating for Anibal Sanchez. What could it be that he likes about him? One of those great mysteries I guess.
   6. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: December 08, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4320019)
Personally I think if the Sox lose Hamilton for anything less than 5/120 it's a mistake. I was a loud voice when the off-season started about staying away from Hamilton but I thought he was going to get 7/170 or something like that. Frankly I'm stunned that he is where he is. If I'm Cherington I call him right now and say "5/100 and we shake hands" and see what happens. Even if years 4&5 are disappointments the Sox should have money to spend by that time and in theory Bogaerts/Bradley/Middlebrooks will represent the core.
   7. Textbook Editor Posted: December 08, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4320026)
Anyone else intrigued by the apparently true story that Ellsbury was offered for Lee?

I'd be fine with 5/$100 because it isn't my money but if 5/$100 would get it done I would just assume there'd be at least 1 other team willing to go higher.
   8. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: December 08, 2012 at 08:47 PM (#4320117)
{5} leave the km hate out. sanchez is a 29 year old pitcher with success in both leagues, a declining bb-rate and inclining k-rate, who could allow the sox to trade one of their pitchers to restock the system or get an impact 2013 player. you don't have to be a duquette fanboy to see the rationale.
   9. Darren Posted: December 08, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4320128)
Oh, I like Sanchez--I think he's a good signing. I was just having a chuckle when it finally dawned on me why, in every thread, KM was all over him.
   10. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:26 AM (#4320202)
Anyone else intrigued by the apparently true story that Ellsbury was offered for Lee?


Where'd you see this? I would endorse this.
   11. Dan Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4320207)
Where'd you see this? I would endorse this.


If the Phillies weren't interested in that deal before dealing Worley for Revere, they're definitely not interested in it now. So it really doesn't matter if the Sox are willing to make the offer or absorb Lee's contract because it's not happening.
   12. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:40 AM (#4320212)
Hamilton is just not that special a player to offer that kind of money to. For 3 years, maybe fine. But it's foolish to expect any more than a 4 WAR season from him. If he were 3 years younger, different story. But he ain't.
   13. Textbook Editor Posted: December 09, 2012 at 06:31 PM (#4320399)
Saw it on Philly.com somewhere as an aside after the Revere trade was done. The story was the Sox had offered Ellsbury for Lee... No info on how the proposal was received by the Phillies, but obviously it didn't happen and wouldn't happen now.
   14. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: December 09, 2012 at 07:29 PM (#4320431)
It was being reported on Fox here in Boston last night as well. I'd like that deal for the Sox, Lee on a short contract is a good get I think.
   15. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 09, 2012 at 07:45 PM (#4320437)
If he were 3 years younger, different story. But he ain't.

Though I get the concerns about his age, I'm not sure a normal aging pattern would apply here. He didn't reach the majors until he was 26 due to his other issues, so I'm not sure if he would be as "worn out" as a similarly aged player. Then again, who really knows how the substance abuse will play out?? I'm only speculating here, but I think if he can be had for 4/108 or so, then I think the team should go for that.
   16. Darren Posted: December 09, 2012 at 09:39 PM (#4320484)
If he were a pitcher, I might agree. Maybe. But as a position player, I'd much rather have a guy playing baseball than doing what Hamilton was doing. If anything, he's likely to age worse than most players his age.

I'm only speculating here, but I think if he can be had for 4/108 or so, then I think the team should go for that.


So if you're a yes on 4/108, I'm guessing you agree that 5/111 makes sense? And don't forget the out clause! We must have the out clause!
   17. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:26 PM (#4320527)
Sure, I think the Sox would be fine with 5/111. I'm in the same camp as Jose, I think 4/108 or 5/120 or so would be fine. My concern is when you either go 6 years or near $140mil.

As for how Hamilton will age, we just don't know. I was thinking of course of the more baseball related injuries one sustains through constant playing. As I said, I have no idea how the substance abuse will play out with respect to the aging process.

All I know is that this team needs some 4 WAR players who have the possibility of posting 6 WAR seasons or they are staring at 79 win seasons. Of course some more starting pitching would be nice, but not sure what Sanchez will be offered now that Greinke is overpaid. Will someone offer Sanchez 5/75?
   18. Nasty Nate Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:53 PM (#4320554)
Mark Reynolds just signed for 1/$6m. We don't know what it takes to sign Hamilton yet, but on the field Reynolds/Hamilton would be a better 1B/RF combo than Napoli/Victorino, right?
   19. Jittery McFrog Posted: December 10, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4320594)
We don't know what it takes to sign Hamilton yet, but on the field Reynolds/Hamilton would be a better 1B/RF combo than Napoli/Victorino, right?

For next year? Unless Reynolds's defense is better than I think it is, I wouldn't count on him for much more than 0.5 a win or so. I think that's too much for Hamilton to make up. On the other hand, for 2014+ you would have Hamilton/vacancy, which could be filled with someone better than Mark Reynolds.
   20. UnclePab Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4321337)
Here's Alex Speier's take on the Hamilton 3-year discussion. He looks at how other players with age 27-31 seasons similar to Hamilton's fared over the next three or more years. Short answer is, more than three is probably too many.

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