Wow, that's an ugly bullpen. I have a feeling this is going to be a much worse disaster for the Sox than the first months of Theo's bullpen-by-committee.

Bullpen-by-committee? Aren't they all?

I agree with Kevin - MDC pitched himself off the team. The fact that he was kept around as long as he was shows that the Sos WANTED him to make the team, but he just wan't able to get the job done.

A few weeks of Spring training are enough to make you think MDC is not as good as Lopez or Romero? That seems like a lousy way to make a decision.

Over on SOSH, they're having a similar discussion. A post named gibdied makes this observation:

think looking at his stats up to the point he got hurt is a better glimpse of what he can do. From the time he was recalled from AAA to the point where he got hurt (from May 29 to July 24) his stats line was:

27.3 IP, 25 H, 8 R, 6 BB, 26 K, 2.63 RA

That's great. For comparison, his stat line after he got hurt:

22.3 IP, 35 H, 18 R, 9 BB, 17 K, 7.26 RA

Also, this spring:

Romero, 9.2 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, 8 K
Delcarmen 8 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K.

Also, I don't buy that they wanted him to make the team. If they did, they wouldn't have packed the roster with so many guaranteed contracts/no options guys in front of him.

Matt, what do you make of Hansack? In a way, I was surprised he didn't make the team. He was the sharpest reliever in spring, he and Okajima ( I don't count Corey because I think his spring was a fluke).

Darren, isn't that what spring training is for, to evaluate?

Yes, as long as you can definitively spot the flukes, which you obviously can.

Actually kevin maybe you're right: they should send down Pedroia and sign Todd Walker. :)

I would have given Hanasak a job... over Lopez. With two lefties in the pen, I wouldn't have carried a loogey. His stuff is much better than I would have expected it to be.

A few weeks of Spring training are enough to make you think MDC is not as good as Lopez or Romero? That seems like a lousy way to make a decision.

Its called having options versus not.

Plus when a player is in a competition for a job, I do expect him to perform. He didn't. I don't mind seeing him sent down... but I would still expect him to make a contribution this year.

Its called having options versus not.

I'm aware of the option situation--notice I mentioned it earlier.

Well, wasn't it? You really think Corey can sustain a 1.50 ERA?

If so, you should be ######## about him and not Delcarmen.

kevin, you're selectively believing one guy's spring over another. Why is Corey's a fluke and not Hansack's?

A couple other ZIPS:

Coorey: 4.10
Breslow: 3.99
Hansack: 5.26
Siebel (traded for fairly fat nosebleed man): 4.57

One more interesting reliever the Sox have at AAA is Mike Burns. He's 28, and though he's had a hard time breaking in in MLB, here's what he's done in the minors the past 3 years (all relief except for 2 starts in 06):

04, AA (Tex), 80.2 IP, 63 H, 1 HR, 15 BB, 94 K, 1.67 ERA
05, AAA (PCL), 30 IP, 22 H, 4 HR, 4 BB, 30 K, 2.10 ERA
06, AAA (IL), 56.2 IP, 47 H, 3 HR, 12 BB, 52 K, 1.75 ERA

His ZIPS is 3.95. I think he'll be really interesting to follow.

Okajima isn't a LOOGY

Lopez is... I think Okajima is the second best RP on the sox... or at least has a good chance of being.

I'm aware of the option situation--notice I mentioned it earlier.

Then why are you comparing Romero to MDC?

Because they didn't have to sign Romero. He's not a very good pitcher, IMHO.

But they did... rightly or wrongly... we don't have a time machine. So they have to make the best choice of the options they have.

I think they made the best choice.

Though I likly wouldn't have signed Romero... but I understood it at the time.

It doesn't follow that if someone lost his job in spring, he lost it because of his stats. It could easily be that he didn't pitch well, or that he didn't take instruction properly, or any number of things.

I think everyone here agrees that eight innings of spring statistics are basically worthless, and no one should ever make a decision based on eight innings of spring statistics. But that doesn't mean that a decision from spring training, based on eight innings of in-game observation, plus side sessions, bullpen work, coaches' testimony, is invalid. There are good spring judgments as well as bad ones.

Now, the question is whether the Sox have made a good one. I am generally not disposed to accept DIPS-derived statistics (and worse, projections) for relievers as determinative information for individual cases, and I'm generally not disposed to assume that teams are making decisions using essentially the same information that we are. On the other hand, I'm generally not disposed to give the benefit of the doubt to the Red Sox on relief pitchers. In the end, I think I come down on the side that the Red Sox ought to put Manny in the big league bullpen - until there's a legitimate report of a clear reason for sending him down. The Red Sox haven't earned the trust that they have good reason to send Manny down.

I also agree that the three lefties thing is odd. Lopez and Romero are both loogies. That makes no sense. Especially when both Corey and Hansack have done everything one could ask of guys trying to make the team.

I'm not talking about the sending down of Delcarmen in isolation. In that context, it can be defended. Big picture, I think it shows a pattern that's not very productive.

Why did you understand the Romero signing at the time?

They didn't have a single lefty in the pen, Tito loves his loogeys and they had no minor leaguers who were likely to step into the role. It made a lot of sense to take a shot at a guy like Romero, who has had success at the major league level...

It's really hard to evaluate relievers on stats. Not just because with a reliever you give big money to may blow up, but because its hard to determine when a previously good reliever has really gone bad and when he has just been sample sized out...

Well, here's
Tito's explanation from RedSox.com:

"[Manny D is] a little bit maybe more than just meets the eye," said Francona. "He's somebody, like a Hansen, that we are heavily counting on. We don't know how far into the future. But with Timlin progressing as well as he is and coming back five, six days into the season, we felt like to possibly keep Manny, [that] there's a decent chance he's not going to pitch with the guys we have ahead of him right now. ... We decided to go ahead and send him to Triple-A, let him get started now, so he doesn't lose 10 days."

So, Lopez gets the slot becuase he'll be send down in a week anyway. I can buy that.

Papelbon, Donnelly, Pineiro, Okajima, Romero, Snyder, Lopez

Timlin takes Lopez' spot by the home opener. I don't really see the room for Manny D in that bullpen once Timlin returns - Snyder's the long man. You could make the case for Manny D over Romero, but Romero's on a guaranteed contract, so that's pretty moot. Tito's explanation is basically that they don't want to jerk Delcarmen around by placing on the MLB roster only to cut him back to the bucket a week later. That seems reasonable. The teams they're facing in the first week are lefty-heavy, so they want another lefty. I guess, maybe.

I'd still rather they gave the twelfth slot to Corey or Hansack, and I worry about their prognostic surety on Timlin - say it takes another week or two for him to get back, wouldn't you rather have someone useful instead of a backup loogy? Timlin is 40 years old, and this is the Red Sox medical staff we're dealing with. I'm still not a fan of this roster decision, but at least Tito's explanation is non-crazy.

Pass.

That Zips [3.66] for papelbon is way too high.

FWIW, PECOTA's new Papelbon as closer projection is an ERA of 3.04.

The problem with Corey is that he has no options and he is no on the 40 man roster - he has a minor league K. So, if they went with him with the idea of sending him down in 10 days, they'd have to sneak him throw waivers again - why take the chances of that working if the difference b/w Corey and Lopez over 1 week is pretty small?

The bigger question may be why Romero is on this team at all. But I suppose we'll find out if the RS were right and he still has gas left in the tank.

MDC will be back, but the plan has seemed to be that he should get innings, and for April he has a better chance of doing that at Pawtucket. I have no problem with that.

Whatever happened to Runelvys Hernandez?

Came to camp out of shape and unprepared, too. Basically couldn't have given a worse impression.

Ah yes -- assigned to minor league camp March 19.

Give Okajima a ~4.00, and I'll take those above ZIPS for actual 2007 results , with Paps adjusted down to 3.04, I'd settle for that. Low expectations and all.