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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

Mediocrity Achieved!

So 36 games after their last dance with the magic .500 mark the defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox are there again after a win over the Baltimore Orioles who are according to league rules a Major League Baseball team.

Snark aside the Sox are resembling the team they were twelve months ago.  Think I’m crazy?  Try this on for size;

2018: games 11 to 38: 17 wins, 11 losses
2019: games 11 to 38: 17 wins, 11 losses

We can play games with numbers all we want and those first ten games count (2018: 9-1, 2019: 2-8) if the Sox, who are effectively the same team they were a year ago, see out the final three quarters of the year like they did last year they would finish with 101 wins.  Let’s look at some things going well and some things to fret about;

Good news: Michael Chavis

I was fully prepared to be underwhelmed by Chavis but his Will Middlebrooks show in the minors has not been evident yet.  Not surprisingly Chavis has struggled defensively at second particularly when turning double plays but the bat has been excellent.  Most impressively his K/BB rates both in his MLB stint and his brief minor league tour in 2019 have been much improved.  If that’s a real improvement with his power he will stick around awhile.

Fret over: Ryan Brasier

Ryan owes Jackie Bradley a rather expensive steak dinner and the finest women of the night Baltimore has to offer.  Save for JBJ’s ridiculous catch it would have been a third straight game with a run allowed and a second loss in a week.  Brasier is still throwing strikes with just two walks so far and if he can keep that going I think there is reason to think he will be fine.  I really love the way Alex Cora has deployed Matt Barnes (Alex Speier refers to Barnes as “the leveragist”) and Brasier pitching well allows that to continue.

Good news: The rotation

Despite injuries to David Price and Nathan Eovaldi the rotation is comin’ round rather nicely.  Chris Sale is resembling Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez and Rick Porcello are doing their thing.  With Hector Velazquez and Marcus Walden combining to act like a fourth starter quite well the Sox seem to be regaining their footing in the area that in my opinion was the difference between them and the rest of baseball in 2018.

Fret over: The depth

Another area the Sox seemed to swallow up Major League Baseball in 2018 was the contributions they got from all over the roster.  Steve MVPearce, Blake Swihart, Brian Johnson, guys like that made huge contributions.  Right now the Sox are getting effectively nothing from the back of the roster.  If you call Chavis the starting second baseman, and why wouldn’t you, the best OPS from the bench is .695…and that is Blake Swihart.

On the mound Tyler Thornburg, Colton Brewer, Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman need to get more dependable.  Workman has a shiny ERA but he has walked 13 batters in 17.2 innings and I am skeptical that the two (2) hits he has allowed in that same time is a skill that will continue.  Someone in that group needs to give Alex Cora an option behind Brasier and Matt Barnes.  In fairness last year’s bullpen was somewhat inconsistent and Cora wasn’t afraid to mix and match as needed with great success.

Hey, 19-19 isn’t great but while the 2-8 start opened up the possibility of the Sox digging an insurmountable hole the way they have played since has put that aside.  I am not saying the Sox will just coast the rest of the way and win the division easily (though I’d be cool if they did that) but they are giving themselves the chance they want.

Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: May 08, 2019 at 11:11 PM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. TomH Posted: May 09, 2019 at 09:20 AM (#5840022)
About like I said approx 2 wks ago, when I predicted the Sox would be at or above .500 by May 15. They have 5 games left (all at home) to be "above".

What happened to the "ooh, the rotation is ruined, their plan of limiting spring training innings was horrible" narrative? Looks kinda silly.

Now, do I think the Sox will win the division? Probably not.. NYY and TB both will be tough to beat. But that have a decent chance.
   2. jmurph Posted: May 09, 2019 at 09:24 AM (#5840023)
.
   3. jmurph Posted: May 09, 2019 at 09:25 AM (#5840024)
38. jmurph Posted: April 18, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5833287)
but I'd be less certain about that rotation.

I'm reasonably sure the starting staff's ERA will finish below 7. Reasonably.

Nailed it!
   4. jmurph Posted: May 09, 2019 at 09:27 AM (#5840025)
They still have a big home/road schedule split, too, having played 8 more road games than home. I'm optimistic they can get back into the WC race, perhaps even the division. It's sort of amazing they're only 5 back given how poorly they started.
   5. Nasty Nate Posted: May 09, 2019 at 09:27 AM (#5840026)
After they lost the first game, in the back of my mind was a worry that the woeful O's would somehow be the Achilles heel of these Sox. So it's a nice relief that they snagged that last one.
   6. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: May 09, 2019 at 09:36 AM (#5840030)
We're less than a quarter of a way through the season, and the Red Sox are 1.5 games out of the WC, and five out of the division. Heck, they are 5.5 out of the best record in baseball. They've played the most road games in baseball, as well. Once the Bruins are done with their playoff run (at this point, they probably are the favorites to win the Stanley Cup), New England will turn its eyes to baseball...
   7. SandyRiver Posted: May 09, 2019 at 12:10 PM (#5840138)
What happened to the "ooh, the rotation is ruined, their plan of limiting spring training innings was horrible" narrative? Looks kinda silly.

The "ruined" was certainly hyperbole, but it would've been nice if all that terrible SP work in the 1st 15-20 games had been done in Florida.
   8. TomH Posted: May 09, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5840202)
MLB record yesterday: 22 KOs, 0 walks in a game by the staff
   9. TomH Posted: May 09, 2019 at 01:35 PM (#5840210)
more good news:

I created a stat, Team Net KO-BB advantage. Take BBs drawn by hitters minus BBs issued by pitchers, and add KOs by pitchers minus KOs by batters.

Boston, with a plus 94 (2.5 per game), is currently 2nd in the AL, to Houston, with the Angels a very close 3rd (surprisingly to me, the Blue Jays with their lousy-strike-zone bats are last). Sadly they have been BABIP-ed around a lot, so their team ERA is poor, but they have deserved better (or is their defense really bad?).
   10. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 09, 2019 at 02:48 PM (#5840239)
Another area the Sox seemed to swallow up Major League Baseball in 2018 was the contributions they got from all over the roster. Steve MVPearce, Blake Swihart, Brian Johnson, guys like that made huge contributions. Right now the Sox are getting effectively nothing from the back of the roster.


I know Swihart was a fan favorite, but a 66 OPS+ with below average defense does not exactly scream 'huge contribution'. For all his "What if?" potential he was below replacement value last year.

I was just going to say that TW Lin should be able to contribute more than that this year...but then I noticed he sprained his MCL and has no return timetable. When the Sox decide to suck at a position they do a remarkable job at it!
   11. Toby Posted: May 09, 2019 at 09:16 PM (#5840478)
I live in Maryland so I generally see the Sox only when they are at Camden Yards, but I got to see them at the White House today, so that was sort of fun. I can’t offer much of an insider report, though. I had to leave for a meeting before the President arrived, so I got there early while they were doing a walkthrough of assembling for the picture on the South Lawn. It was sunny and hot and there was a lot of standing around. Some of the players I didn’t recognize at first in their suits and sunglasses, and some of them seemed much bigger or smaller than I expected them to be. Steve Pearce and Andrew Benintendi seemed really on the short side. Matt Barnes is a really tall dude. He seemed to my eye like he was taller than Sale, though Sale is listed as taller.
   12. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: May 09, 2019 at 09:44 PM (#5840486)
What better way to celebrate mediocrity then to visit Trump in the White House!

Sorry to the conservatives here at Therapy, but the low hanging fruit was just there ripe for the picking...
   13. villageidiom Posted: May 12, 2019 at 06:52 AM (#5841163)
A Toby sighting!

The Red Sox are finally playing against the Mariners the way we would have hoped at the start of the season.
   14. Chip Posted: May 12, 2019 at 07:41 AM (#5841169)
On Brasier’s strike-throwing, redsoxstats had a tweet a week or so ago noting that way too many of his strikes were missing over the middle. His heat chart was a lot of “hit me” with a distressingly low % of corner strikes.

Meanwhile, Chavis slumping like he’s JBJ in [choose any April]: now in an 0-23 stretch, with 8 Ks and 5 BBs.
   15. Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: May 12, 2019 at 03:53 PM (#5841233)
Chavis no longer slumping like JBJ, at least for today.
   16. Nasty Nate Posted: May 13, 2019 at 11:03 AM (#5841458)
How was there a game yesterday? I was about 6 miles away as the crow flies and it was steady rain the whole time with even some sleet, I think.
   17. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 13, 2019 at 11:21 AM (#5841469)
2019: games 11 to 38: 17 wins, 11 losses

That's been a very impressive run, but I wonder if they could've done it with Benitendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Sale and Workman missing from the lineup for all or much of the season.
   18. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 13, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5841473)
What better way to celebrate mediocrity then to visit Trump in the White House!

Well, shouldn't the nation's #1 Red Sox fan be allowed to chime in?

Trump takes credit for Red Sox turnaround
President Donald Trump tried to take credit on Monday for a sudden turnaround in the Boston Red Sox’ season, pointing out that the reigning World Series champions have gone undefeated since their fraught visit to the White House last week.

“Has anyone noticed that all the Boston @RedSox have done is WIN since coming to the White House!” Trump wrote in a tweet. “Others also have done very well. The White House visit is becoming the opposite of being on the cover of Sports Illustrated! By the way, the Boston players were GREAT guys!” ...
   19. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: May 13, 2019 at 11:33 AM (#5841475)
Boo hoo. Only a Yankees fan could watch their team field a roster including the likes of Greg Bird, Troy Tulowitzki, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Giancarlo Stanton, then kvetch about how many injured players they have.
   20. jmurph Posted: May 13, 2019 at 11:33 AM (#5841476)
That's been a very impressive run, but I wonder if they could've done it with Benitendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Sale and Workman missing from the lineup for all or much of the season.

Thankfully for the Red Sox and their fans, it absolutely doesn't matter.
   21. SoSH U at work Posted: May 13, 2019 at 11:37 AM (#5841478)
That's been a very impressive run, but I wonder if they could've done it with Benitendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Sale and Workman missing from the lineup for all or much of the season.


Probably not, because those guys are much better and healthier players than any other team's corresponding guys.
   22. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 13, 2019 at 12:25 PM (#5841506)
Okay, you may be right, but let's see:

Benitendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Sale and Workman

Stanton, Judge, Hicks, Gregorius, Andujar, Severino, Paxton and Betances

Doesn't seem like that much of a difference to me, although Andujar's sucked since his return. OTOH Bradley's got a 20 OPS+, so that evens things out a bit.

But the more relevant question is whether the Red Sox could lose all of those key players and be able to match what the Yankees have done after losing all of theirs. Meaning how well could Dombrowski be able to come up with players like Voit, Tulowitski, Urshela, LeMaheiu, Tauchman, Estrada and Maybin, and see something in them that other teams have missed?
   23. SoSH U at work Posted: May 13, 2019 at 12:32 PM (#5841510)
But the more relevant question is whether the Red Sox could lose all of those key players and be able to match what the Yankees have done after losing all of theirs.


On the other hand, until last week, it wasn't until the first week of May the Yankees beat a team that ended the month with a winning record. Their incredible start in the face of all those injuries was aided considerably by a steady diet of league dregs.
   24. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 13, 2019 at 12:43 PM (#5841517)
That's certainly true, but since then they've beaten the two best** teams (Minny and the Rays) 4 out of 6.

**EDIT: Other than Houston
   25. Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: May 13, 2019 at 03:24 PM (#5841615)
Poor Andy, desperate to find something to bash the Sox about. It's got to be tough as an Orioles fan to see the Sox winning their 4th World Series title in 15 years, third straight division title and know your team is likely to lose 110 games.

As jmurph notes your hypothetical is irrelevant. But y'know hang in there. You'll be OK. Someday the Orioles will be relevant again.
   26. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: May 13, 2019 at 04:39 PM (#5841646)
I'd just like to point out that Devers may not be hitting for power at the moment, but if you told me he was gonna hit .336 at any point this season after the first two weeks I'd have asked which pot shop you'd visited for the good stuff. If he's merely Xander v.2015, that's a pretty damned good player.
   27. villageidiom Posted: May 13, 2019 at 05:10 PM (#5841665)
That's been a very impressive run, but I wonder if they could've done it with Benitendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Sale and Workman missing from the lineup for all or much of the season.


In the first half of August 2018, Boston's DL featured Sale, Rodriguez, Devers, Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright. For four days they had all of them on the DL; at no point in the first half of the month did they have fewer than 5 of them on the DL.

(8/1 Devers, Sale, Rodriguez, Vazquez, Pedroia, and Wright)
8/2 Devers, Sale, Rodriguez, Vazquez, Pedroia, and Wright
8/3 Devers, Sale, Rodriguez, Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, and Wright
8/4 Devers, Sale, Rodriguez, Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright
8/5 Devers, Sale, Rodriguez, Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright
(8/6 Devers, Sale, Rodriguez, Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright)
8/7 Devers, Sale, Rodriguez, Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright
8/8 Sale, Rodriguez, Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright
8/9 Sale, Rodriguez, Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright
8/10 Sale, Rodriguez, Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright
8/11 Sale, Rodriguez, Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright
8/12 Rodriguez, Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright
(8/13 Rodriguez, Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright)
8/14 Rodriguez, Vazquez, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright
8/15 Rodriguez, Vazquez, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Wright

(Days in parentheses had no game.)

Boston went 11-2 in that span, including a 4-game sweep of the Yankees that almost doubled Boston's divisional lead, plus a thorough beat-down of the Orioles in Baltimore. FWIW in the last game of that series they also sat Benintendi and Bogaerts.
   28. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 13, 2019 at 05:35 PM (#5841679)
Agreed, it’s poor form for Andy to interrupt the Red Sox celebration of mediocrity. Carry on with: “Mediocrity Now, Mediocrity Tomorrow, Mediocrity Forever!”
   29. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 13, 2019 at 05:39 PM (#5841683)
Well if anybody is an expert on poor form...
   30. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: May 13, 2019 at 07:52 PM (#5841723)
Carry on with: “Mediocrity Now, Mediocrity Tomorrow, Mediocrity Forever!”


Hey mate, 4 titles in the last 15 years speaks for itself. Those 10 year olds in New York are wondering if they'll ever see a successful team in NY. Those rumours of ancient heroics just don't cut it with these young kids today.

As for Andy's hypothetical, who's to say the NY 'star' players don't all slump and play like utter cr*p like the Red Sox players did for the first 10 games? You just never know these things. NY fans should be grateful they caught lightening in a bottle with some of the replacement players and enjoy the ride because I can assure you their pitching staff is not going to continue to perform as well as it has.
   31. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 13, 2019 at 09:03 PM (#5841742)
Hey mate, 4 titles in the last 15 years speaks for itself. Those 10 year olds in New York are wondering if they'll ever see a successful team in NY. Those rumours of ancient heroics just don't cut it with these young kids today.

More like 15-16 year olds. Nobody before at least 5-6 is really capable of consciously following sports. They will have no memory of 2009.
   32. Darren Posted: May 13, 2019 at 09:11 PM (#5841743)
Fangraphs have the Sox favored to win the division now and 80+% chance to make the playoffs. ????

Fivethirtyeight still has the Yanks ahead of them.
   33. villageidiom Posted: May 14, 2019 at 07:20 AM (#5841785)
Fangraphs have the Sox favored to win the division now and 80+% chance to make the playoffs. ????
I'd buy the 80%. They'd need to be no worse than in the top third of the AL and the top 3 in the AL East, to make the playoffs.
   34. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 14, 2019 at 07:53 AM (#5841789)
As for Andy's hypothetical, who's to say the NY 'star' players don't all slump and play like utter cr*p like the Red Sox players did for the first 10 games? You just never know these things.

Believe me, I know that all too well. Until proven otherwise, I've always thought the Red Sox to be the favorites in the AL East, even if and when the Yankees get their full roster back. That pinstriped lineup can kill you with home runs, but when it comes to late and close against good relievers, you're mostly going to see a lot of strikeouts and stranded baserunners.

That said, I'm not sure that LeMahieu and Urshela aren't capable of keeping it up. If nothing else, Urshela's a vast improvement over Andujar in the field, and looking at LeMahieu I'm wondering if his last two years weren't the result of some sort of hidden injury.

NY fans should be grateful they caught lightening in a bottle with some of the replacement players and enjoy the ride because I can assure you their pitching staff is not going to continue to perform as well as it has.

If and when Severino and Betances return, and if their current starters (including Paxton) can remain injury-free (yes, I know), I'm not sure why they can't continue to perform at their current slightly above average but hardly sensational level. What's going to be ultimately determinant is how well the bottom half of the bullpen performs, because none of their starters ever get them into the 7th, and good as Ottavino/Kahnle/Britton/Chapman have been, they're not capable of filling in all those extra innings every day and night. They're going to need Betances to come back, and for Green and Holder to return to their 2018 form.
   35. villageidiom Posted: May 14, 2019 at 08:58 AM (#5841797)
If and when Severino and Betances return, and if their current starters (including Paxton) can remain injury-free (yes, I know), I'm not sure why they can't continue to perform at their current slightly above average but hardly sensational level. What's going to be ultimately determinant is how well the bottom half of the bullpen performs, because none of their starters ever get them into the 7th, and good as Ottavino/Kahnle/Britton/Chapman have been, they're not capable of filling in all those extra innings every day and night. They're going to need Betances to come back, and for Green and Holder to return to their 2018 form.
Well, this is the "Mediocrity Achieved" thread.
   36. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 14, 2019 at 12:11 PM (#5841868)
That said, I'm not sure that LeMahieu and Urshela aren't capable of keeping it up. If nothing else, Urshela's a vast improvement over Andujar in the field, and looking at LeMahieu I'm wondering if his last two years weren't the result of some sort of hidden injury.



LeMahieu OPS+ numbers since 2013 when he became a regular: 74, 75, 92, 128, 93, 88, 123. I mean sure, he could maintain his 123 OPS+, but it's not like he had any sort of track record at that production level.

And I sorta doubt Urshela will be able to maintain a .392 BABIP, although even if that drops a good amount, he would still be a pretty valuable player.

If and when Severino and Betances return, and if their current starters (including Paxton) can remain injury-free (yes, I know), I'm not sure why they can't continue to perform at their current slightly above average but hardly sensational level.


Their starters lead the AL with 2.7 WAA (4th in MLB behind WSN, PHI, CIN). Might not be sensational, but that is much better than 'slightly above average'.

The starting pitchers are pretty much all exceeding expectations and Cashman found a magical bench. Hats off to them, I hope they all regress, it's ####### annoying that with all their injuries they aren't behind the Sox.
   37. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: May 14, 2019 at 01:10 PM (#5841896)
Andy's an O's fan?
   38. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 14, 2019 at 01:18 PM (#5841904)
The starting pitchers are pretty much all exceeding expectations

Depends on what you mean by "expectations". The only one who's really broken new ground is Germán, who's had a breakthrough similar to Severino's in 2017. You might even say the two have just traded places.

Paxton's improved to about the same extent Happ's gone down from his two months with the Yanks at the end of 2019.

Tanaka's slightly up, on the basis of Sunday's great start, but before that he was in pretty much in a funk, with his command way off.

And while Sabathia's doing better than he did overall last year, at this point in 2018 his ERA was 2.23.

So all in all it's not all that out of line, with the exception of Germán. I think the "slightly above average" is a fair summary of what they've done overall compared to average expectations. Other than Germán, these are all pitchers with solid track records.
   39. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 14, 2019 at 02:16 PM (#5841925)
Andy's an O's fan?

Andy picks between Yankees and O's, depending on which one happens to be doing well.

I am not sure I would call that a 'fan' of either.
   40. SoSH U at work Posted: May 14, 2019 at 02:24 PM (#5841927)
Andy picks between Yankees and O's, depending on which one happens to be doing well.


That's not fair. He also likes the Nats.

   41. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 14, 2019 at 06:58 PM (#5842020)
Come on, Andy has always said he likes both. The fact that most of you seem to be bothered by that is getting old.

Now, the 2004 ALCS not hurting all that much I call bullshit.
   42. Chip Posted: May 14, 2019 at 10:51 PM (#5842147)
This just in: Brasier still making mistake after mistake in the middle of the plate.
   43. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: May 15, 2019 at 11:00 AM (#5842252)
Josh Ockimey had his second 2 HR game in his last 3 games. Now batting .230/.403/.610 with 10 home runs on 23 hits and a 27:35 BB:K ratio.
   44. Nasty Nate Posted: May 20, 2019 at 03:36 PM (#5843880)
I was going to post a link to a headline about a Pirates player that was "JB Shuck Trying To Become Two-Way Player" and also say: JBJ should try too!

But Jackie has hit a homer today, so my wit is obsolete.

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