Daniel Bard was a #28 pick.
Larry Broadway was a #77 pick.
Steve Phillips was a #107 pick.

The Red Sox have, in the past 5 years or so, given me reason to have high expectations of their draft. I'm not feeling it this year. Not that they won't do well with what's available at their slots, but rather that I'm not expecting much to be available. In past years they had the advantage of sandwich picks, etc., helping them out. This year they have none of that: their two potential compensation-eligible picks being wiped out by re-signing (Varitek) or temporary retirement (Byrd, who has said he might sign with a team after the draft). This is the first time since 2004 that Boston has fewer than 4 picks in the first 3 rounds.

What's the consensus on this draft? Deep, thin, middle of the road?

VI, I'm under the impression that the real advantage the Red Sox have pressed in recent years is drafting players in later rounds that were going to go to college unless a team offered them gobs of money, and then offer them gobs of money.

VI, I'm under the impression that the real advantage the Red Sox have pressed in recent years is drafting players in later rounds that were going to go to college unless a team offered them gobs of money, and then offer them gobs of money.

They've done that, too, Lars Anderson being a prime example: he was drafted in the 18th round of the 2006 draft, and getting paid FAR above slot. But look at the first three rounds for Boston that year:

#27 Jason Place
#28 Daniel Bard
#40 Kris Johnson
#44 Caleb Clay
#71 Justin Masterson
#83 Aaron Bates

They had six picks in the first three rounds, two of whom are already on the 25-man roster, the other four of which are not all busts at this point. Epstein was quoted in the Globe the other day that:

You're going to miss 38 out of 40 picks most years.

By that measure, they've already done well with the first three rounds alone, the volume of picks being a key component.

Ultimately a successful draft for Boston comes down to two things: identifying the talent, and taking advantage of opportunities presented to them by the teams drafting ahead of them. I think they will do well with both, but I don't expect as many opportunities as in past years - if only because they have fewer picks.

The draft is at 6pm? Wasn't it in the afternoon last year?

It was at 2 PM the last couple of years, the only years it has been televised. With MLB Network available now, they don't have to stick with whatever time slot ESPN is willing to give.

It ends up as a direct conflict with... a bunch of MLB games. But it's probably better than whatever MLB Network would've been running at that time.

EDIT: And with the likely amount of in-game chatter about the local team's draft picks, there will be a decent cross-promotional opportunity. There might actually be some fans who will wish they had MLB Network after the draft.

The draft is at 6pm? Wasn't it in the afternoon last year?

My own theory this is partly aimed (I mean other than all the cross-promotional marketing and corprate synergy stuff) at limiting the advantages of large market teams to take too many signability guys.

Signability guys have generally been grabbed after the first day, so teams can call them and gauge their interest in signing over the break. When the draft went to TV and the first rounds took so much more time, the signability guys were taken in the 5th round (in the Red Sox case Middlebrooks and Westmoreland) as opposed to the late teens (Lars and Reddick). This might push these guys up to the 3rd round, or it could push them back to end of the 2nd day (if "advisors" hold their ground).

It will be interesting to watch, but I'm not sure about having it compete with actual games...

Seems like a Monday or Thursday, when fewer games are typically played, would be a better day for it if they are going to televise it.

Funny VI mentions Bates, he's one of the few offensive bright spots lately. Just got promoted to AAA after tearing up AA this year. He's old for a prospect and he looks like he's wearing eyeliner, but you take what you can get.

You're going to miss 38 out of 40 picks most years.

Even that's generous. Back in the heady days of the Moneyball draft, I remember using Philly's draft studies to figure out that, even with all their picks in 2002, a nice return for the A's would be 1.5 decent major leaguers. The Red Sox, with their signability picks, should probably be in the same neighborhood.

Reymond Fuentes, HS CF, is the first pick. Some reports make him sound like Endy Chavez/Juan Pierre (not a bad thing). Some reports say he's a five tool workout warrior. Got me kind of excited either way.

I like the idea of drafting speedy OFs early. Nobody knows too well which 18 year olds are going to be good 26 year old hitters, so you might as well take the one that is a very good bet to be a plus defender.

You're kind of excited if it's Endy/Pierre? You're too easily excited. :)

Word on SOSH is that he had some great workouts that shot his stock way up. ??

I'm glad they go for the best player but I wish the best player happened to be a college player. I just have a hard time waiting around for the 17-year-olds.

Round 2 the Sox get a college reliever. Standard for them. I guess they have a good track record doing this but it's no fun on draft day seeing them

Goldstein on BPro today said he was rising incredibly quickly. Great speed and bat speed.

Round 3 David Renfroe HS SS. $3 million price tag apparently

I find nothing to dislike in the Fuentes pick - it sounds like he's got more upside than the other players on the board at the time.

A concern I have, though, is that the Red Sox have been pretty incredible at taking raw arms and turning them into pitchers, and they've had some success with polished hitters who they can help move quickly through the minors, and I can't think of a single less-than-polished hitter who could be regarded as a success. Maybe Josh Reddick?

Certainly, teaching someone how to play baseball is hard, and so it's hard to draw up enough of a sample to speak definitively - even the Kansas City baseball school had a humongous failure rate. And the Red Sox successes with pitching have been so off-the-charts great that comparing other groups to starting pitchers obscures perhaps more than it helps. And, further, none of this is reason to avoid drafting someone like Fuentes. More, this is a pattern I started thinking about after getting sick of checking the Greenville box score this year, and Fuentes reminded me of it.

I'm glad they go for the best player but I wish the best player happened to be a college player. I just have a hard time waiting around for the 17-year-olds.

At least it's not like they need a CFer for a few years.

MCoA: there was a nice quote from Fuentes about his hitting approach, and hitting the ball where it's pitched. It's nice to see maturity about the game like that out of a 17 yr old.

Round 4 Jeremy Hazelbaker: Speedy CF, second in division I in OBP

Round 6 Brandon Kline HS RHP. Apparently wants $5 million to skip college

Round 7 Madison Younginer HS RHP. Signability pick

Nobody else looks too interesting as far as I can tell

10th round pick Brandon Jacobs already signed for 2nd round money. He's listed at 5'11 240 (!). He was going to play RB for Auburn

Now my favorite baseball team and my favorite football team have massive running backs named Brandon Jacobs who elected to play somewhere else rather than Auburn.

I have to say I really like the Red Sox draft. When you have an already good farm system, I think its safe to take a high risk high reward guy like Fuentes in the first round. Renfroe would be an outstanding get if they sign him. I'm not that high on Younginer, but as a 7th rounder that's a great value pick. Kendal Volz was another good value pick.

I wish I could find the link but I seem to remember Theo (or someone else) saying that they've been scouting Fuentes for two years now. Sure, I'd much rather see the pick spent on a polished college athlete instead of a toolsy CF but it certainly sounds like they've done their homework on this guy.

Here's a scouting video of Jacobs.

While I don't know what I'm talking about, he is really thick for a high schooler, and he can't get much bigger and remain a viable corner outfielder. Though I guess if he has running back skills, maybe he can hang in there (though people said Adam Dunn was a high school QB and would keep his athleticism in the field, and that sure didn't happen.)

His bat looks quick, and he seems to have a nice uppercut swing that suggests power potential, though he seems somewhat weirdly immobile - there's a clear weight shift, but it looks a little odd to me.

He just sounds like a first baseman to me. A running back of that size would seem to be a good first baseman because of foot-work and explosive ability (leaping for line drives). There isn't much power in the system, so hopefully he has it.

Does anyone know anything about Yaz's grandson? The Boston Globe reports that he was considered an early round pick, but that he would sign for only first round money. That claim doesn't sound right to me, mostly because the only other source I can find mentioning that was Gammons.

He's a decent prospect. Hard committment to Vandy. He won't sign.

He just sounds like a first baseman to me. A running back of that size would seem to be a good first baseman because of foot-work and explosive ability (leaping for line drives).

I think I remember reading a scouting report that he actually wasn't all that explosive for a RB...

I wouldn't be concerned about Jacobs staying in the OF just based on his measureables. He doesn't look fat and he's probably not going to be compelled to powerlift to the point where it hurts his career. I saw on Sox Prospects that he ran a 4.5 40, that's got to be well ahead of what the average major league OF could do in high school.

If he can run well enough to be considered even a marginal D-1 RB, then he's waayy fast enough to play the OF.

If he can run well enough to be considered even a marginal D-1 RB, then he's waayy fast enough to play the OF.

His Rivals.com page lists his "Breakaway Speed" as a Negative on his scouting report. That isn't too surprising, he is 235-240.. a power runner, a between-the-tackles guy. But, like you say, if you can play RB in the SEC than you have enough speed to play CF as a young player and LF/RF just fine as you move up the ladder

Brandon Jacobs really confuses me. With his football background and scholarship to Auburn, he should be a premium athlete, a notion that is backed up by him supposedly running a 4.5 forty. However, when I checked out his draft video, I was shocked to see how plodding he was running to first. There is no way he ran that fast a forty. I think he would have been a fullback if anything. Pg crosschecker's scouting report had him with a 7.56 60-yard dash and I'm not sure that's an inaccurate reading.

Branden Kline's draft video looked good. He looked athletic and he had a classic, fluid delivery.