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It looks like they're really anxious to dump Penny. I get the impression that someone will at least eat his salary for us.
I hope Casey Kelly is doing good enough that he's given up on being a shortstop. He's going to rank really high on the year-end lists.
I'd love to find a replacement for Papi at this stage...I hate to say this, but he really does look cooked.
- Trade or unload Penny, who's now pitched well enough to be desirable;
- Give Buchholz a shot in the Sox rotation; call up Bowden soon, either to replace Buchholz or, most likely, join the pen;
- Send Ortiz to the minors to find his stroke (barring a highly unlikely dramatic turnaround);
- Acquire a bat to replace Ortiz, preferably an infielder (like Nick Johnson) who'd provide insurance in case / once Lowell's wheels fall off completely; the price could be Penny, a reliever or two, and/or Buchholz or Bowden, depending on the bat;
- Smoltz is waiting in the wings to take a rotation or bullpen spot.
The Sox' needs and resources fit together rather nicely, so all these steps should be doable. The biggest question is who replaces Ortiz.
Teams in first place sometimes do trade a back-of-the-rotation starter or a third/later option out of the bullpen -- Penny (as of mid June when they can trade him under the CBA) and Delcarmen are realistic trading options. Bard is tradeable. Bowden is tradeable. Buchholz is very tradeable.
As for the topic - no. Who knows if Buc would be doing this in the MLs and absent signing those guys, they would likely have had to do so (or had Hunter Jones pitch more often if Masterson was a starter from day 1). I think the Red Sox view was that Buc needed time to grow into a major league pitcher. That seemed like the right decision in February. And, with time in the minors, Buc has looked like a good potential ML starter. That is good decision making - not bad decision making. They diagnosed a solution and that solution has worked. Now they just need to follow through by moving Penny around the middle of June if (1) no one else is injured and (2) Smoltz looks like he can still make a comeback.
I'm still not convinced that Bowden is going to be a good ML starting pitcher in Boston, but I suppose I should be more open about it.
1) Beckett and Lester have periodically looked like crap, and Matsuzaka has been hurt;
2) Ortiz is cooked;
3) We have no shortstop, especially defensively;
4) With the exception of Bay's power, nobody in the starting lineup is doing anything terribly surprising (in a good way);
5) We're havng all kinds of trouble beating Tampa Bay.
And we're still in first place, tied for the second-best record in baseball.
And, we can address most of our problems my leveraging our strengths (pitching depth, both immediate-help type pitching, and long-term prospect pitching). It's all good, baby!
That said, Buchholz needs to be up ASAP.
As far as surprises go, Dustin Pedroia's transformation into a right-handed Wade Boggs would be notable if the guy coming up behind him had driven him in some.
Most teams don't have two or three guys in the bullpen that could easily step in and do as good a job or better than their current closer.
Thanks. I had a much longer post, but I trimmed it down to the essentials so I wouldn't sound like a
broken recordskipping CD.What would the Sox want? A big bat for the DH position? Major league depth for the OF, SS and the corners? A top-tier hitting prospect, plus a good stopgap SS and a strong 4th OF? It's a pretty specific set of needs the Sox could use for 2009...
I really want them to. He's cooked, and his value will only go down. If they tried, they could trade him for someone that could really fill a need as a mediocre DH, something we don't have right now.
They won't do it, of course. But I would love it if they did, because he'll be completely worthless come August.
EDIT- My bet: Jonathan Papelbon will save less than 21 games next season.
Ks: 1st (84)
Saves: T-2nd (42)
K/BB: 7th (2.18)
ERA: 5th* (2.57)
HR: last* (10)
*One fewer HR would put him in the middle of the pack on HR and 4th in ERA (just removing one earned run). Two fewer would put him tied for first in HR.
You're right, Papelbon is perceived to be one of the top three in the league. As it turns out, overall the 2009 Papelbon would have, in 2008, likely been ranked fourth in the AL - behind K-Rod, Mariano, and Nathan. If Papelbon is ranked 4th instead of top 3, I can live with that. If other GMs rank him higher... well, how many wouldn't realize what his arbitration award will be next year? How many would want to take that on? (Probably as many as K-Rod had suitors this offseason, minus the Mets.)
He might not be the best arm out of the pen to date, but to describe him as far from that is absurd. Are you establishing an ERA+ over 500 as sustainable? Those guys are the only ones he's far from.
WHIP: sixth (only Lopez is worse)
ERA: third
HR's: seventh
K/9: second
K/BB: fourth
I think WHIP is the most telling...
It isn't that Pap is bad -- he is doing fine. But he isn't anchoring the pen the way he used to -- and we have lots of other weaknesses. I like the guy, I just think he is the one who will bring the most and who we can most live without given the current construction of the team.
Trade Bowden and Buchholz and Bard for Hanley. Presto!
Uhh, sure. How about Lars and Lugo for Greinke?
As of May 21st---nine days ago---he had an ERA of 0.95. After that he had two appearances where he gave up two runs in one inning. So now his ERA's up to 2.45. But it's still only late May.
I can see the concern with the WHIP numbers, and yeah, he's a bit of a head case (but so are many other closers), but how much of this concern is based on all of two games? The greatest closer in history has had plenty of two or three games stretches where he's stunk up the joint, but I don't remember too many Yankee fans wanting to dump him.
Or is the minor league depth that good, and that certain to transfer to the Major League level, that you all feel that you can replace Papelbon without missing a beat? All I can say as a Yankee fan is that that sort of confidence makes me jealous.
The differences in conclusion - dump him vs. whadda we do? - are threefold. First, there's the WHIP - that's been a concern since the start of the season, and it indicates the problem is beyond the two games you mention. Second, the perceived value of Papelbon and the value of his current contract still have a wide gap between them, while that hasn't been true of Rivera for quite some time. Trading Rivera has never been a viable option. Third, Papelbon has had a pretty significant injury that has required constant care and monitoring since, and might have resulted in the need for new mechanics that have lessened his control... while Mo has been keepin' on with his cutter year after year. Roll it all together, and you have a young guy with greater trade value (right NOW) and potentially a time bomb for his right arm, who has been showing bad signs of performance since the start of the season, vs. a top-shelf closer with a top-shelf contract who only goes through short stretches of ineffectiveness. It's not quite as comparable.
I was tempted to take the "Yankees fans would rather see Rivera stay and play 3B in place of that loser, and bring back Paul O'Neill to close out games, than to dump Rivera" path, but that's a bit unfair.
I think if you look there was concern well before those two games. He's really come very close to blowing 4-5 saves already; the game in Anaheim and the Tampa game come to mind right away.
If you watch Papelbon regularly you just can't escape the fact that he hasn't been the same this year. Not just the walks, the additional base runners but he's behind in the count more, has completed the transition to being a completely one pitch pitcher, he's just not right.
Now, he started from such a high point that even 75% of himself is still better than most closers but as Villageidiom points out, his value in the trade market at the moment probably exceeds his value to the Sox. I think Delcarmen (or Saito, Ramirez or Okajima) could probably close games at a fairly similar rate as Papelbon and the Sox could probably get a better bat for him than trading any of those guys would bring.
Here's what they did at A:
Kelly: 48.1 IP, 32 H, 0 HR, 9 BB, 39 K, 1.12 ERA
Price: 44 IP, 37 H, 2 HR, 12 BB, 40 K, 2.45 ERA
Would like to see more Ks, but those are some impressive numbers, especially for the 19-year-old Kelly. Hope he's done playing SS.
Kelly (L, 0-1)- 5.2, 9H, 8R, 3ER, 4-1 K/BB, 5-6 GO/FO, HRA
Good discussion of his outing at soxprospects.com
In particular, do they risk some of that depth for a SS or a DH? I think SS is a much more pressing problem, because unless the team decides to send Ortiz off on an injury rehab (which, if it were what they were going to do, surely they'd have done it already), I don't see any way to bench him. The upside of sticking with Ortiz is way too high, and the certainty of his remaining this sucky is way too low.
But they need to trade something for a shortstop. I have no idea what or for whom, but I have a lot of trouble believing there isn't a crappy team out there that doesn't want a shiny young pitcher in return for their passable shortstop.
* I don't think Beckett is a sure thing to be here long term. He's shaping up as a guy whose value on the open market will be more than his value to the Sox after next year.
I don't know what you do at short. Do we sit and wait/hope for Lowrie to be the man or do we get aggressive and go after a Jack Wilson or a Cristian Guzman (thanks Darren!)?
To me, the Sox should be looking first for a passable shortstop and then maybe for a better-than-Bailey DH bat to caddy for Ortiz. In neither case should this cost more than Mike Bowden.
I agree with you that SS is a bigger hole. I think landing a quality SS is tougher than finding a bat and with Lowrie around there would appear to be a potential ready made solution to the issue.
EDIT: Ortiz is under contract for one more year after this. That's not really "multi-year", it's just next year, and I have absolute faith that Theo Epstein, given an entire winter, can find a one-year solution at DH. I don't think it's an issue that should be taken into consideration until then.
I'm with you on Theo filling the hole for 2010, I just wonder how long we can go with two gaping wounds in the lineup. Part of my concern is that while he's been great so far I keep waiting for someone to pull the rug out from under Varitek and if that happens this lineup gets really thin if Ortiz doesn't have some bounce back.
Things are shaping up pretty well for the Sox though. The Central and West aren't producing a Wild Card team and with the Rays up and down the immediacy isn't quite as crucial as it might otherwise be. I do agree that shortstop is the bigger concern though.
According to some of the talking heads they are being very aggressive about it. I would like to see that bat be able to play 1B so that Lowell can be given a rest as well (his defense is really falling off).
They'd find a spot. It's possible - not likely, but possible - that they could move Drew to CF and package Ellsbury and one of the pitchers in a trade for someone like Holliday, for example.
-- MWE
That being said, shortstop is the bigger problem and each day Lugo's quotes become more delusional.
Depending on how much they like Cedeno, the Sox could probably get both of them for something like Bowden and a C+ position prospect.
I don't know. The rumors about Cabrera are making the rounds. It seems like the Red Sox front office is on of its patented whisper campaigns.
Well yeah, but you know the old saying, "In Bebruary, everyone's in first place."
Next!
I hope Smoltz still has something left in the tank.
Obviously it's only 50 PA, and Gibson would only need one bad week to get down to 260/370/360, and look like an American version of Mitch Dening, and, really, of 95% of the hitters to emerge from our overseas programs.
Jose Alvarez has had two hot starts in Lowell, with 15 Ks in 9 innings and just one run allowed. I remember Temple being really excited about him as a 18-year-old out of Venezuela, and he pitched (poorly) last year in hte Sally League, so now he's a 20-year-old in the NYPL. But he's doing well.
I guess that we can say that the Red Sox rated Gibson below Middlebrooks and Almanzar coming into the season, but we already knew that based on their bonuses and amateur pedigrees, and it's not a huge knock on a kid to be rated below a couple of million dollar talents.
EDIT: thanks MHS - look forward to the update
Your worry about the Greenville promotion stands, then. 19 in the NYPL isn't bad, though.
Is Delaware really considered a cold weather state? At least in scouting circles? Being from Delaware, I've never thought so. In fact, where Derrik is from is farther south, near where everyone goes to the beach during the summer. If Delaware is a cold-weather state, does that make Philadelphia a cold-weather town?
-- MWE
There's been a lot of disappointments but they're still in great shape. The amount of money they spend on amateurs is just about always going to keep them in good shape.
Just because I'm bored, here's my top ten:
1) Kelly - I think the hype on him is going to get out of control once the Baseball America year end issues go to print
2) Bowden
3) Tazawa
4) Reddick
5) Navarro - Liked him a lot before the season and I don't think the injury changes much
6) Lars - Worried that the emperor has no clothes. His MLE OPS as a 20 and 21 year old are .622 and .589. He's still young, but it's a long road from "not even close to replacement level" to "championship caliber starting 1B"
6) Hagadone
7) Westmoreland
8) Tim Fefejdiodiwicz
9) Pimentel
10) Doubront
Apparently they're about to sign a 19 year old Cuban SS for $8 million (!!). I had seen reports about that guy before, but nothing suggested he'd get a massive bonus like that.
Pretty sure that's the most money anyone's ever gotten without coming from college or Japan. He's now 1a) on my list :)
My recollection is that Portland has been a pitchers' park to a fair extent for a few years now but I don't have any numbers to support that. For now, we'll just assume I'm right, that makes me happy.
Is anyone else getting curious about our catchers (in a good way)? We've got a few guys at lower levels who are hitting well and seem to be regarded at least reasonably well if not better defensively. Wagner (.887 OPS), Federowicz (.973) and Exposito (.780) are all playing well enough that it seems that at least one could pan out enough to be a regular.
And I'm with JB H on Anderson. How long can the power not appear before we get concerned?
I'm excited that there's a player, who is apparently worth $8M as an amateur, whom the Red Sox are going to sign. I hope that they get better at teaching baseball skills to players like Iglesias.
2008 MiL Multipliers
I went to the game tonight, and hopefully I can say I saw Aaron Bates' lone ML start, because he is not even remotely useful at this point.
Also, since when does Brett Anderson throw 97? He was absolutely dominant tonight.
Also, Jon Lester I knew could be very good, I did not think that he'd be a 10 K/9 guy with a FIP in the top of the league.
Lester seems like a case study in what two or three extra mph can do. Now that he sits 94 on the fastball, everything else is that much more nasty. I have no idea where that velocity came from, but it makes him one of the best pitchers in baseball.
I thought you were just being hyperbolic. But wow, is it one of the less publicized stories of '09? He keeps up that K rate and K/BB rate, and Lester moves comfortably into the 1st tier of pitchers in baseball.
One misconception about Pap is that he's going with a new delivery. According one interview with him, he's reverting back to his 07 form, which does have a history of working for him. So it wouldn't be shocking if he was able to use it to dominate again.
Apr: 4.31 ERA, 22 SO and 23 BB in 39.2 IP. He allowed 5 HR.
May: 2.97 ERA, 27 SO and 13 BB in 36.1 IP. He allowed 2 HR.
Jun: 3.03 ERA, 19 SO and 3 BB in 32.3 IP. He allowed 2 HR.
Jul: 2.05 ERA, 28 SO and 6 BB in 30.2 IP. He allowed 0 HR.
...
Lester's 2009:
Apr: 5.40 ERA, 33 SO and 10 BB in 30.0 IP. He allowed 5 HR
May: 5.86 ERA, 41 SO and 14 BB in 35.1 IP. He allowed 6 HR.
Jun: 1.85 ERA, 40 SO and 6 BB in 34.0 IP. He allowed 2 HR.
Jul: 0.61 ERA, 17 SO and 5 BB in 14.2 IP. He has allowed 0 HR so far.
...
What to make of any of this ought to be left up to better tea-leaf readers than I. He is striking out more batters per inning this year, and in his weaker months this year, he's still doing better at avoiding walks than in his really bad month of 2008.
Absolutely worthless headology but ventured anyway: I think he's mostly just challenging hitters more, that when he first came back from cancer, he was unsure of himself, unsure of his ability to blow pitches past hitters, so relied more on nibbling. Since then (Schilling's influence? Sure, why not ascribe it to him, while we're making stuff up), he's slowly figured out that his stuff has come back enough where he doesn't need to nibble. He'll have bad months where people hit home runs off him, but for the most part, he's going to be a really terrific pitcher.
This year, he came in throwing 93-96 with slightly worse but still very good command. According to the pitch/fx data at Fangraphs, Lester had a big uptick in velocity last fall, as well, which has continued and improved this year. So the data seems consistent with improving velocity coming from Lester being on a full training regimen post-cancer.
1) the best starting pitcher on the Red Sox, and
2) Jon Lester is a more valuable commodity than Mr. Trade Deadline Guy, Roy Halladay.
Why?
1) He's SEVEN YEARS YOUNGER than Halladay, with crazy-fewer miles on him than Halladay.
2) He's signed (with a club option) through 2014...when he'll be 30 - still two years younger than Halladay is today.
3) While Lester was excellent last season, and very good so far in 2009, the trend lines are moving in Lester's direction. Halladay has better control (incredible control), but Lester has among the most Ks/9 innings in the majors...and it's going up. His velocity is higher, his control is better, he has gained back his body weight.
I don't know if Lester is the most valuable pitching commodity in baseball right now, but he's more valuable than Halladay.
He's not.
but he's more valuable than Halladay.
Agreed in general, although it would depend on the team. The exception would be the team that is pretty confident of making the playoffs and wants the stud who can give 7-9 Halladay-level starts in postseason.
But Halladay is the most valuable pitcher who is realistically available on the market.
76IP, 56Ks, 18BBs, 5 Hrs, 3.79 ERA
John Smoltz has struck out 17 and walked 4, giving up no HRs in his 20 IP. So his FIP is pretty low.
Oh hey, that Bard guy has been pretty good 29 Ks/10BBs/0 HRs in 24 IPs. When does he become the go to 8th inning guy?
Anyway, point is: The pitching seems to be poised to have an excellent second half, especially because an injury to anybody but Beckett or Lester might actually make the rotation better. If the offense is even reasonably capable, the Red Sox will likely have an excellent second half.
Does anybody on Toronto still have a pulse? Byrd was sitting in a Barcalounger when the season started.
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