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   1. philly Posted: September 29, 2008 at 02:54 AM (#2959563)
So he doesn't have a "big game" oblique?

Yeah, that's not good.
   2. Darren Posted: September 29, 2008 at 02:57 AM (#2959566)
Francona on NESN, Beckett is now slotted for game 3--and "hopefully be rolling." Doesn't sound great.
   3. NTNgod Posted: September 29, 2008 at 02:57 AM (#2959567)
ESPN just teased upcoming bad news about Beckett; this must be it.
   4. NTNgod Posted: September 29, 2008 at 02:58 AM (#2959570)
<a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/2008_09_28_Source:_Josh_Beckett_has_oblique_injury:_Sox_ace_may_be_in_hole/srvc=redsox&positi>Boston Herald: Source: Josh Beckett has oblique injury</a>
According to a source, Beckett sustained an oblique injury during a bullpen session following his last start.

Asked last night if Beckett is suffering from an oblique injury, a separate Red Sox source said a medical update on Beckett will be announced today, before the team boards its charter flight to California for Wednesday’s Game 1 of the American League Division Series against the Los Angeles Angels.
   5. 1k5v3L Posted: September 29, 2008 at 02:59 AM (#2959572)
Reporting on ESPN right now: Beckett supposedly sustained injury on Friday during bullpen session and is questionable for the ALDS. Lester will start game 1, Dice-K game 2, and game 3 starter is up in the air.

I think Beckett should just staple his oblique to his skin and battle through the pain.

Ah, never mind
   6. Steve M. Posted: September 29, 2008 at 03:28 AM (#2959600)
Are we allowed to be disappointed in Beckett's 27 starts with an ERA+ of 114 and potential playoff no-show? Or does the '07 playoff run negate any right to ##### about this?
   7. Darren Posted: September 29, 2008 at 03:34 AM (#2959610)
You're allowed to be disappointed a little but you're not allowed to ever question the Hanley-Beckett trade. It simply had to be made and it was the only way the Sox would ever have won in 07, which is the most important season ever, now that it turns out that they won. That's what I've learned.

Seriously, I think Beckett was a bit unlucky this year and generally pitched better than his ERA. Overall, he's been a good, not great, starter for the Sox.
   8. JB H Posted: September 29, 2008 at 06:40 AM (#2959741)
I guess it's fine to be disappointed, but he was clearly really unlucky. Other than Halladay and maybe Lee there's noone in the AL that's a better bet to pitch a great game tomorrow (well maybe 4-6 weeks from tomorrow :P) or April 1st 2009
   9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 29, 2008 at 12:48 PM (#2959799)
That's not good. Beckett's stuff has been very off and on down the stretch, so I'm guessing this isn't something entirely new, but something he's been struggling with for a while, something that he recently exacerbated.

This is particularly annoying because the 3-man rotation series was so good for the Red Sox precisely because we've got a big drop-off after our third starter. I hope that Beckett can pitch game 3, but the reports don't sound so good on that score, and Beckett may be a big game pitcher, but his history of pitching effectively while less than 100% is not impressive.

Also, Tito said that Beckett will throw a side session on Thursday, which means that Beckett will be on the postseason roster, but he won't be 100% to pitch and they'll need to carry Wake and Byrd. That's definitely annoying, too - five starters when you only should have four (including a long man).
   10. plim Posted: September 29, 2008 at 01:23 PM (#2959830)
It simply had to be made and it was the only way the Sox would ever have won in 07, which is the most important season ever, now that it turns out that they won.


Darren - how do you figure that 07 was more important than 04? not criticizing (yet), just curious. fluke test (e.g. 04 was not a fluke)?

every way i see it points to 04 being more important: new manager, new gm, most key players were new gm's acquisitions (beyond the manny/pedro-esque cornerstones), beat the yankees in the alcs (in record fashion), beat a much "stronger" opponent (peak cardinals vs "underdog" rockies), and the obvious

only thing i see about 07 over 04 was proving that it wouldn't take another 86 years to win it, and more youngsters involved (pedroia, youkilis, papelbon, dicek, lester, beckett, delcarmen, crisp, ellsbury vs just arroyo). oh, and also forcing the yankees to being the wild card.
   11. villageidiom Posted: September 29, 2008 at 01:30 PM (#2959837)
Darren - how do you figure that 07 was more important than 04? not criticizing (yet), just curious. fluke test (e.g. 04 was not a fluke)?
Anything Darren says that is immediately followed by "Seriously," should not be considered serious.
   12. Xander Posted: September 29, 2008 at 01:35 PM (#2959841)
Josh Beckett...of the best xFIP in the AL over the last two years fame?
   13. Spahn Insane Posted: September 29, 2008 at 01:36 PM (#2959842)
Nobody anywhere has the right to gripe about Beckett's postseason performance ever again, after '03 and '07.
   14. SoSH U at work Posted: September 29, 2008 at 01:50 PM (#2959855)
Darren - how do you figure that 07 was more important than 04? not criticizing (yet), just curious. fluke test (e.g. 04 was not a fluke)?


plim,

As long as Darren gets to make up positions, we ought to be able to also. Darren believes that anyone who doesn't believe the Red Sox got totally snookered in the Beckett-Hanley trade is an absolute Theo fanboy who is incapable of rational thought. He was just bein' playful.
   15. Nasty Nate Posted: September 29, 2008 at 01:53 PM (#2959859)
####

I really was hoping not to see John Burkett --er,I mean Paul Byrd.. start a playoff game for the sox
   16. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 29, 2008 at 02:09 PM (#2959878)
Well, if Beckett's out, Byrd still wouldn't be starting in the divisional series - they only need three starters, and Wake will get the call.

I'm sure they wouldn't do it, but if the Sox win the DS and have time to set their rotation for the next series, they should think about letting their #1 go 1-4-7. That's only one short rest start, game 7 would be normal rest. And Jon Lester is a lot better than Paul Byrd.

This is most likely moot - the Sox are no better than 55% to win the DS (probably worse), and well below that to win in speedy fashion with time to set the rotation. And beyond that, if the Sox weren't willing to go 1-4-7 in the ALCS last year when Beckett was healthy and beasty, there's no reason to think they'd do it with Lester.
   17. Nasty Nate Posted: September 29, 2008 at 04:11 PM (#2960065)
Have the Angels announced their rotation for the series?
   18. tfbg9 Posted: September 29, 2008 at 04:20 PM (#2960073)
Well, that spoils a lot of our fun.
   19. Steve M. Posted: September 29, 2008 at 04:30 PM (#2960090)
Have the Angels announced their rotation for the series?

I read that Weaver and Garland would be pitching out of the 'pen, so I am assuming they go Lackey-Santana-Saunders-Lackey-Santana. I still think our odds are pretty good in Games 1 and 2. Not confident at all about Game 3, especially where we are likely to have lineup with both Kevin Cash and Alex Cora/Sean Casey behind Wakefield.
   20. plim Posted: September 29, 2008 at 04:35 PM (#2960102)
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/09/scioscia_announ.html

ANAHIEM - John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders will pitch the first three games of the AL Division Series in that order starting Wednesday, Angels manager Mike Scioscia announced after Sunday's 7-0 win over the Texas Rangers.
   21. Steve M. Posted: September 29, 2008 at 04:42 PM (#2960118)
Josh Beckett...of the best xFIP in the AL over the last two years fame?

You recite that line like a broken record. You do realize that xFIP essentially normalizes a pitcher's HR rate to the average HR/FB ratio, relative to the ball park? Since moving to the AL, Beckett has been a HR-prone pitcher, allowing a HR every 8.15 IP. Therefore, the xFIP statistic pads his numbers by assuming that a lot of balls that do go out of the park really shouldn't... which is counterintuitive, because he's a power pitcher.

Still, even if you want to argue that xFIP is an accurate predictor and Beckett has just been unlucky, you absolutely cannot deny that 2006 and 2008 have been mild disappointments. The 2007 playoff run was outstanding and, if you offered me the deal up front, I'd have mortgaged the future for another World Series in a heart beat. That said, Beckett's real-life, in the flesh regular season performance has been slightly erratic and as Darren said, he's been good but not great. Am I grateful to have him? Sure. But don't pretend like he was one of the elite pitchers in baseball this season, because he just wansn't. Not even close.
   22. Dave Cyprian Posted: September 29, 2008 at 04:44 PM (#2960125)
Mazz:
It's worth noting that in Beckett's 27 starts this season, the Red Sox actually had a losing record (13-14). Behind Lester (22-11) and Matsuzaka (23-6), the Sox were a stunning 45-17.


Just keep doing what you've been doing.

Ryan:
The Angels won eight of nine against the Red Sox this season.


On the other hand, change is good.
   23. villageidiom Posted: September 29, 2008 at 04:50 PM (#2960137)
if you offered me the deal up front, I'd have mortgaged the future for another World Series in a heart beat.
Looking at the economic landscape, apparently a lot of people did that.
   24. tfbg9 Posted: September 29, 2008 at 05:41 PM (#2960226)
Not much to hang one's hat on?:

Globe Online-

Josh Beckett injured his right oblique muscle in a bullpen session Friday and will not pitch until Game 3 of the AL Division Series against the Los Angeles Angels, Terry Francona said after Sunday night's game. Jon Lester will pitch Game 1 Wednesday night and Daisuke Matsuzaka will pitch Game 2 Friday night.

Francona was confident the injury would not keep Beckett, the reigning ALCS MVP, out of the Angels series altogether.

"We're slotting him in there because we think he can pitch there,'' Francona said. "Friday [Game 2] was actually discussed. But then you're pushing. It's not just health, but it's competing also. I think he's going to be OK."
   25. Gamingboy Posted: September 29, 2008 at 05:44 PM (#2960233)
You guys are in big trouble if Beckett can't pitch. He is probably the finest Postseason pitcher of his generation.
   26. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: September 29, 2008 at 05:54 PM (#2960255)
Why, what's going to happen? Is the stock market going to take a huge nosedive or something?
   27. Dave Cyprian Posted: September 29, 2008 at 05:59 PM (#2960262)
I wonder if the Sox are holding him back to game 3 so that he doesn't have to fly to Disneyland- I mean Los Angeles, and back...
   28. Darnell McDonald had a farm Posted: September 29, 2008 at 06:28 PM (#2960294)
"You guys are in big trouble if Beckett can't pitch. He is probably the finest Postseason pitcher of his generation."

He is if you want to believe in the fairy tale. Some may prefer to regard Beckett as a very good pitcher who has had some great performances in the post-season. There is no guarantee that his future post-season performances will measure up.

Personally I think they're just being extra careful with Beckett and they've been targeting Lester and Matsuzaka for Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS for some time. Hopefully Lester will also be able to conjure up a fairy tale this post-season
   29. Styles P. Deadball Posted: September 29, 2008 at 06:49 PM (#2960326)
Jerry, why do you have to paint everything so black? Suppose you got hit by a truck... Suppose the stock market crashes... Suppose Mary Pickford divorces Douglas Fairbanks... Suppose the Dodgers leave Brooklyn... Suppose Lake Michigan overflows...

Joe, don't look now, but the whole town is underwater.
   30. Toby Posted: September 29, 2008 at 06:50 PM (#2960328)
If the Red Sox weren't so stupid, they would see this as an opportunity to start Clay Buchholz.

/mgl
   31. Nasty Nate Posted: September 29, 2008 at 07:12 PM (#2960354)
Personally I think they're just being extra careful with Beckett and they've been targeting Lester and Matsuzaka for Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS for some time.


This is ludicrous
   32. villageidiom Posted: September 29, 2008 at 07:18 PM (#2960364)
Why, what's going to happen? Is the stock market going to take a huge nosedive or something?
You're a jinx.
   33. Darnell McDonald had a farm Posted: September 29, 2008 at 07:50 PM (#2960414)
"This is ludicrous"

That is one well prepared argument. Color me impressed
   34. Darnell McDonald had a farm Posted: September 29, 2008 at 07:54 PM (#2960419)
Reminds me of this one from

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/gamechatter/discussion/cleveland_indians_79_79_boston_red_sox_93_65_thursday_september_25_2008_705/

10. Darren Posted: September 25, 2008 at 09:27 PM (#2955769)

I haven't seen anything in print yet but it sure looks like the Southpaw from Stinktown is going to be first up at Disneyland, followed by Dais-K. No reason to mess with the rotation now.



Huh? No chance. Beckett's this team's ace and has that big-game rep. He will start game 1 in the playoffs



Yup. No chance
   35. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 29, 2008 at 08:58 PM (#2960495)
Well, mopar's claim is pretty easily falsifiable. If the Red Sox carry both Wakefield and Byrd on the postseason roster, it'll mean that they're really worried about Beckett and not merely taking it easy with him as per an earlier plan. There aren't any clear reports of anything about the postseason roster yet - Benjamin's post on Extra Bases suggests it'll be a while before we hear.

I find it very hard to believe that the Sox really just want Beckett to pitch game 3. If Beckett needed extra rest, they should have gotten it for him before the season ended, not during the ALDS. Beckett is the guy who should, all else being equal, take the ball for Game 1, and he very obviously should be scheduled for two starts, not one, in the divisional series.

EDIT: Also, we'd need a pretty thorough conspiracy theory to support mopar's claim, with, among other improbable events, Terry Francona lying in ludicrously specific fashion about the injury Beckett suffered on the 26th, as in this article from today's Globe:
"It was on his 40th pitch," manager Terry Francona said of the injury, which was first reported by the Boston Herald. "Because it was raining and things like that, he was almost done. I don't think it actually was something where he just threw it and grabbed it. It was almost in-between pitches, where he took a deep breath and was like, 'Man, I feel something.' He went and got treatment. They've been working on him.
   36. Nasty Nate Posted: September 29, 2008 at 09:01 PM (#2960497)
mopar: So you don't think Beckett was injured on friday?
You think that if everyone had equal health they would still start the series Lester-Matsuzaka-Beckett?
or am I misunderstanding?

Do you think this whole 'beckett is hurt' bomb is just a false report created as media-disinformation? a charade?
   37. Nasty Nate Posted: September 29, 2008 at 09:06 PM (#2960506)
A Francona Q & A:
Q: Has Josh tweaked this before?
A: I can’t speak for in his lifetime. Has he been battling this? No. I didn’t even ask him [if it’s happened ever before.] I think he has. I don’t know. I really don’t know.

Q: Do you know which side?
A: I think it was his right side. It was on his 40th pitch [of his side session Friday]. Because it was raining and things like that, he was almost done. I don’t think it actually was something where he just threw it and grabbed it. It was almost in between pitchers, where he took a deep breath and, ‘Man, I feel something.’ He went and got treatment. They’ve been working on him. Initially, when you hear something like that, you’re kind of like, ‘Damn.’ [A team doctor] came in and goes, ‘Hey, relax. We’ll be alright.’ So that was kind of reassuring.


the thread from #34 is from before the injury, so its kind of irrelevant
   38. Darren Posted: September 30, 2008 at 12:42 AM (#2960703)
mopar--

You're a genius.
   39. tfbg9 Posted: September 30, 2008 at 03:28 PM (#2961109)
mopar: Hold on, hold on, hold on! I got it. I got it. Waiter, just bring us four of the best steaks
you got, and four bottles of Lowenbrau!

Darren: mopar--You're a genius!

(Everyone at the table tilts their heads back and laughs heartily)
   40. Rowland Office Supplies Posted: September 30, 2008 at 03:48 PM (#2961133)
You guys are in big trouble if Beckett can't pitch. He is probably the finest Postseason pitcher of his generation.

You'll lose the "probably" after game five becomes known as the "Bloody Abdominal Binder" game.

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