Now Is the Time to Lock Up Dustin Pedroia
Dustin Pedroia is a 29-year-old second basemen who is signed for the next two years and with a reasonable team option for 2015. Normally, I would be against inking such a player to an extension, but I think I would make an exception for Pedroia. Here’s why:
—First and foremost, Pedroia is the face of the team and a really excellent player. In his first 6 years as a full-time player he’s put up 31.1 fWAR. He’s beloved by the fans, well-liked by his peers, and seemingly has an exemplary work ethic.
—The Red Sox have more flexibility in their payroll right now than they likely will in a couple years. Inking Pedroia now will mean that his rather cheap 2013-2015 seasons will be averaged in to later years, where they may not have such flexibility.
—Robinson Cano. He’s going to get a monster deal this offseason and that is going to make it very hard to convince Pedroia that a smaller deal, even if it’s fair, is fair. Let’s guess Cano gets 7/$170M at age 31. What is Pedroia going to expect for age 32? 6/$140M?
—Signing Pedroia now allows the Sox to sign him through age 34-35 rather than 37-38.
An offer to lock in Pedroia’s 2015 option and extend him for 3-4 years at $20M per year would keep him in a Boston uniform through his most productive years. Getting a new “$100M deal” should enough to turn his head. And if you want him in Boston beyond 2015, now is the time to do it.
Darren
Posted: March 17, 2013 at 12:37 PM |
24 comment(s)
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1. plink Posted: March 17, 2013 at 01:43 PM (#4389912)Home .319/.382/.501
Away .286/.356/.421
He may be worth more to Boston than other teams, and the Red Sox wouldn't seem to be risking that much by waiting. They'll still have the money to do what they want in 2 years.
No thank you.
Yes, please.
#7 already covered the "second baseman don't age well" part of this discussion.
The proposal has merit...for the Red Sox. Not sure if Pedroia would go for it though as it would effectively see his last big pay day at 35/36, not the 38/39 he might be expecting.
To clarify, if he's still somewhat useful after 36 and at the end of his contract, I'm sure he'd still get 3/35 or something. But that is half of what he'd get if signed the 6/140 contract that ends when he is 39. He'd essentially lose out about $30 mil for those last 3 years.
Concur. If you want Pedroia to accept only 4-years on the extension, he's probably gonna want at least $25M per.
Pedroia's not choosing between those two. He's choosing between getting locked up through 34/35 and waiting 3 years to see what his market is. [On a sidenote, I think you're off on Pedroia's age. He's 29. A 4-year extension takes him through his age 34 season.]
No way is $25M the lower limit. I've already provided an example of a Kinsler, who was closer to free agency, coming off a better year, and would reach FA at the same age. He took 4 years at $16M per. David Wright was 2 years younger, 2 years closer to free agency, and his extension was worth about $16-17M/year. Jose Reyes was three years younger and an actual free agent and got $17.5M. It's completely reasonable to think that Pedroia would take a deal that triples his net worth three years before he'll have a chance to test the free agent market.
Beltre was actually at the age Pedroia will be in 3 years and was actually a free agent and signed for 5/80.
Zimmerman was 2 years from free agency, 2 years younger than Pedroia, and he took a 4/74 extension.
Phillips, 2 years older, only 1 year from free agency, took 5/61ish.
Reyes and Wright go six-year and seven-year deals respectively.
I think you could get Pedroia for 6/120 in a heartbeat.
Putting that aside though, can you explain how it's going to take at least 4/100 to get Pedroia (so presumably more like 4/110?) but 6/120 gets it done in a heartbeat? That doesn't sound right to me.
By the same logic, the only way it doesn't make sense is if Pedroia thinks he's going to collapse in his age 32 season.
I.E. if Pedroia thinks he will get a big payday after his current contract, he probably thinks he could also get a big deal with his free agency happening one year later.
Right, but to make up for that would be the big age 31 salary and, more importantly, to get that guaranteed now (as well as getting the option year guaranteed now).
For example (with hypothetical numbers): If everything goes well he could get $100/5 after his current deal. If he took a $27 million 1-year extension, he would only have to get $73/4 a year later to match the salary - but more importantly he would have a hedge against his value plummeting in the next 3 years. The only way he would "lose" would be if his value happened to plummet in that one year (or he becomes a better player in the next 4 years).
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