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But I don't think Kalish gets it done. I think you'd have to go bigger than that; probably Ellsbury or Cameron+ with most of the $ eaten on his contract.
As I said in the other thread, I'm kind of OK with a Salty/Varitek tandem if it comes to it, but that presupposes Beltre is re-signed and we sign one of Crawford/Werth to get an OF upgrade.
The C spot won't matter as much as Lackey/Beckett sucking/not sucking in 2011. How those two perform will be way more important than the C spot.
Why do people think Napoli would "team" with Saltalamacchia, if he were acquired? The Sox already have a DH and a 1B, and Napoli is seven times the player Salty is.
I think you're right. Ellsbury's shine is off a bit since he lost a year and was moved from CF by his organization. I would guess Ellsbury's value is as low as it has been since he hit the Majors.
I can't imagine the Angels seeing Cameron as a valuable trade commodity. He's 38 next, he was hurt and bad for most of 2010 and he strikes out a lot, which will matter to the Angels.
For what it's worth, I don't think he's any worse behind the plate than Martinez, and he has a better arm.
Ellsbury - CF
Pedroia - 2B
Werth - LF
Youk - 1B
Ortiz - DH
Beltre - 3B
Drew - RF
Lowrie - SS (I'm more convinced that Scutaro is getting dealt)
Saltalamacchia - C
That feels like a lineup that will do just fine. I think the points made in the other threads that the Sox are extremely unlikely to let $40 million come off the books and not spend it are accurate. If they can land Napoli I'll do cartwheels but pending other moves I don't think it's an absolute must.
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Martinez
Youkilis
Werth/Crawford (I'm convinced the Sox get one of these two)
Ortiz
Drew
Anderson (probably not three lefties in a row though)
Lowrie
And you takes your shot. Anderson gets his chance to show he can do it, if he does, you've found a 1st baseman for the next decade, if not, back to the drawing board but the upside is potentially huge. With Martinez off the table I think the Sox now are in a position where they are likely to have to need to land a corner infielder of some note because catcher is not likely to be an offensive strength.
I think Derrek Lee will be a good signing. Bats righty, plays good D, a reasonable expectation is a 370/480 line. Likely on a 1 or 2 year deal for not a ton of money, and no draft picks lost. Assuming Beltre goes to the West Coast (which I do assume), then that leaves you cheap at C and 1B/3B (in comparison to last year) and means that they just have no excuse to not sign one of the OFers.
2010: 300 MiLB PA, 780 OPS
2009: 300 MLB PA, 660 OPS
2008: 230 MLB PA, 720 OPS
2007: 320 MLB PA, 730 OPS
2006: 380 MiLB PA, 730 OPS
He had a big season in the Carolina League in 2005, but other than that, his record is uninspiring. Looks more like a 700 OPs projection, as I said. Saltalamacchia just doesn't make enough contact to be a good MLB hitter at this point.
EDIT: the fact that he hasn't even been a regular starter over a full season since 2005 is just weird, and another point against making him a regular starter in 2011.
Games played, starting in 2005: 129, 92, 115, 76, 86, 102
(Well, optimistic on the slash line anyway, probably not optimistic for him to bat righty.)
Again, I'm a bit too lazy now to do my own Marcels, but his Bill James (up already on Fangraphs) is basically .325/.425. His Marcel will be heavily influenced by the mean, but you are right that it will probably be closer .720 than .750, which I expect him to out perform slightly. I don't see a downside risk of a C with a sub 700 OPS, but I see an upside chance of a catcher with a +800 OPS, and the likelihood of it being in the middle. I'd love to trade for Napoli (though I do think his defense will be horrible), but I have no idea what it would cost.
My monkey projection (5/4/3/2) using quickie MLE (AAA OPS * .86) puts Saltalamacchia at 688 OPS.
That's a neutral park number, so putting him in Fenway probably gets him around 710.
11: 100 g C, 50 g 1B--def -.5, pos +.4, Off +4.5 = 4.4 WAR
12: 100 g C, 50 g 1B--def -.6, pos +.4, Off +4.25 = 4.05 WAR
13: 50 g C, 100 g 1B--def -.7, pos -.4, Off +4 = 2.9 WAR
14: 50 g C, 100 g 1B--def -.8, pos -.4, Off +3.75 = 2.5 WAR
Total: ~14 WAR for $50 mil. That's a fine deal for the Red Sox, especially considering the lack of other options out their at catcher. All of that changes if they're able land Napoli for a reasonable price.
I basically agree with Darren that 4/50 seems like the sort of offer the Sox should have been able to beat. That they didn't makes me hopeful they have a better plan in motion.
Maybe the Red Sox finally read my very clever post from a couple years ago about how to get Russell Martin. ;)
EDIT: play-index says there have been 48 players in baseball history with 600 games played between the ages of 32-35. There have been 191 in 550 games played. There have been exactly five catchers with 550 games player between the ages of 32-35. (I set the limit at 30% of games played at catcher.)
The most games anyone has ever played in their age 32-35 seasons, while catching at least 1/3 of the time, is 566, by Jorge Posada.
WHEN the Sox sign Crawford and Beltre, they'll dump(er trade) Ellsbury to the Angels for Napoli. I also reckon they'll try to get rid of Paps and his $12mil and spread the money around to the available relievers on the market. CF is still an issue though unless the FO sees Cameron as the answer there(I have no idea where he is at or if can even still be effective)
If you had posted this yesterday and included 'will make little to no realistic effort to resign Martinez' you might as well have BEEN me.
I'm not sold on Werth; regrettable contract waiting to happen. I'd go hard after Crawford and Beltre, harder after the former. Adam Dunn should be on the radar too. If the Sox sign Crawford and one of Beltre/Dunn, I think a C timeshare between Salty and Tek is adequate.
I think Felipe Lopez, if he accepts arb, can do a job as a backup/utility infielder. Scutaro and Lowrie could therefore be used in a trade, although I would be sad to see Lowrie go. He hit the crap out of the ball in the second half when he was finally healthy.
In the abstract, I like the idea of trading Papelbon and spending his money in the reliever market. There are a bunch of good-not-great arms out there. However, I'd be a little nervous about the FO's ability to identify and sign the right ones. With their track record, it seems inevitable they'd bring in the one-year wonders or the outright busts. Papelbon may not be great any more, but at least he's a rather solid bet to be good, as in "among the ten best closers in MLB" good.
Didnt reports say the Red Sox offered Martinez 3/36? Is 4/50 a big jump from that?
They could have, and should have matched that. Hell, they should have started the inseason negotiations at that and not come to this point.
Darren is on to something, he might even had been worth it. I'd bet against it though, and I see it as unlikely he's worth 12.5 in 2014, but who the hell cares, you're already (over)paying your mid-30s DH 12.5 in 2011. In no way has this hamstrung the organization. And Victor is likely to be one of the top 5 catchers in the game for a couple of years.
I was ok w/ letting Damon walk (even tho it turned out to be incorrect), I was ok with letting Pedro walk (even tho he completed me), I was ok with letting Bay walk, etc. etc. I'm perfectly ok letting Beltre walk. I just cant rationalize in my inferior brain right now what LEGITIMATE REASON could be given for not offering Victor 4/50.
Didnt this same organization sign Varitek for 4/40 for his age 33-36 seasons? Victor is younger and significantly better (blah blah defense & Mr. Intangibles Jr.). They looked at the FA market in 2004 and saw no acceptable options to replace Varitek and they overpaid to bring him back. Why not now? Did signing Varitek prevent you from winning another damn world series?
Honestly, if the Red Sox turn around and spend way too much money for Werth and Beltre, I'm gonna start sounding a lot more like karlmangus around here.
I really think this is a big miss.
It's $14 million for a year that even his most ardent supporters agree is likely to be a year he is not worth it. Having signed Varitek in 2004 isn't a reason to sign Martinez now, that's like saying they signed Julio Lugo to a 4 year deal and won a World Series, why aren't they offering the same to Juan Uribe?
I loved watching Victor hit but this is a 32 year old guy who played 54 games behind the plate in 2008 and 82 in 2009. There is a very high likelihood that this is going to be a player who either misses considerable time OR has to move to a position where his bat is decidedly average.
Which is not to say Martinez will be terrible or even bad the next couple of years. The reality is that the Sox are likely able to spend big on 2 of 3 guys; a corner infielder, an outfielder and a catcher. I think the Sox have looked at the options and reached the conclusion that the safer bets are the 1B/3B and OF.
Positional scarcity, and all that. Certainly there are safer options at 1B/3B and OF, but there are also better alternatives (some of which are already on the roster being paid). I mean the only alternative at C we've even floated is Napoli, and we have no idea if thats even an option or what it would take to get a deal done. And the FO and manager have come out saying Saltalamacchia would look nice as a starting catcher, both before and after Victor signed.
And if the 2 of 3 they choose are Werth and Beltre, both of which will most certainly be overpaid, I dont see how thats the correct 2 out of 3 to overpay.
Waiver claim:
4/29/2010 Angels selected Kevin Frandsen off waivers.
8/16/2000 Angels selected David Eckstein off waivers.
5/17/1996 Angels selected Brad Pennington off waivers.
Trade:
12/15/2006 Angels traded Brendan Donnelly to Sox for Phil Seibel.
1/23/1981 Sox traded Fred Lynn and Steve Renko to Angels for Frank Tanana, Joe Rudi, and Jim Dorsey.
12/10/1980 Sox traded Rick Burleson and Butch Hobson to Angels for Carney Lansford, Mark Clear, and Rick Miller.
12/8/1977 Angels traded Jerry Remy to Sox for Don Aase and $.
So, setting aside waiver-wire poaching, the Red Sox and Angels have made one trade in nearly 30 years.
It was Joe Rudi, Jim Dorsey, and Frank Tanana.
DM brings good points in #26--It's okay for the team to hang tough on negotiations, but they need to be right.
--Does anyone think that Lackey at 5 years/$17M-per was a better bet to last out his contract? He was coming off two injury-shortened years and is not exactly the picture of fitness. He's also a pitcher. (Similar question for Beckett)
--They could have held firm on Ortiz and got someone similarly valuable for less. But they chose the certainty of a 1-year deal in that case. It seems likely that they're going to bring back Papelbon too.
They better have a very nice plan in place, I think.
I'm not sure what you mean by last out his contract, but I think Lackey's deal will look OK compared to the one Martinez just got once all is said and done.
I thought I'd spelled out the alternatives in other threads. There are a half-dozen guys who are quite a bit cheaper and project to be similarly valuable. It's a far less vague plan than "let Martinez go...profit!"
It might. I doubt it will look better though.
I disagree. I think VMart will be one of the top 3 DH's in the league his last 1-2 years.
You can say that about any negotiation though. At the end of the day they have to be right. I think it's a fair bet that Werth + Beltre + Saltalamacchia will be better than Martinez + Werth + Overbay (?).
I liked the Lackey and Beckett deals particularly given the lack of available pitching on the market. I feel a lot better with Beckett and Lackey than I would with Wakefield and ??? and hoping to land de la Rosa or Pavano or trying to count on Doubront as a 30 start guy (and I love Doubront).
I've been thinking about this this morning a lot. I think when you look at the top of the FA market for this off-season there is a very good chance that everyone who signs a top FA is going to be disappointed in the long run. There are reasons to be concerned about all of the top guys; Lee, Werth, Crawford, Beltre, Martinez, I think considering the length and dollars necessary for these guys there is a decent chance all are going to look like bad contracts in the end. This is an issue generally with free agents but there is no one on that list (am I missing any of the big FAs?) that I say "this guy is as close to a lock as you can get" the way I've felt about guys like Beltran (heh), Teixeira, Gonzalez next year.
If they can sign Crawford and get good value for Ellsbury, I'd be happy with Cameron and Kalish rounding out the OF.
Personally, if we're making choices that we dont know if the Red Sox had to make in the first place......I'd choose Martinez + Dunn + BULLPEN. But thats just me. I can see the case for Martinez + Beltre + Cameron or Martinez + Crawford + Lowrie.
I'm not buying that Werth makes this team as much better as he should, given the contract he will command. And without giving it too much thought, I think Werth might be more of a disaster at the end of the 5 year deal he'll get than Martinez will be at the end of his 4-year.
I agree with you that the FA class lacks certainty, although I think Lee is as close to a lock as you will get for a FA SP. Crawford aint perfect, but he's a pretty good bet.
My god. VMart is a hitter, he'll be fine. The Lackey deal looks disastorous in YEAR 1. I like his chances for a rebound as much as anyone, but damn, it could be an epic disaster by the end of year 5.
Per PeteAbe: Salty is career 765 OPS vs. RHP, Tek is career 830 OPS vs. LHP. The Tek number is a bit optimistic, as 2010 is the only year in the last 5 in which he has exceeded his career mark (per B-R):
2010 859
2009 785
2008 763
2007 729
2006 689
One could argue that Salty is young enough that he can outperform his career numbers, to help offset this. Regardless of that, the AL averaged a 686 OPS last year from the catching position.
Of course, defense is the bigger issue here.
EDITed to add: Nothing about this precludes them from signing or trading for another starting C. Salty can go back to AAA as needed, or the captain can be cut.
Red Sox catchers in 2010 hit for an OPS just under 800. I have Saltalamacchia projected to a little over 700 OPS, and a very similar number for Varitek. Doing a quickie extrapolated runs on the projections, Sox catchers last year produced about 95 runs. Salty + Varitek project to produce around 75 runs.
If the Sox are done with their catcher position, they're risking a huge, huge downgrade.
EDIT: Should account for the platoon. If both players get a 1.08 platoon advatange, that's makes up about ten runs of the difference. Of course, Salty and Varitek won't catch every single game, and they won't always have the platoon advantage, so there's another several runs given back on the projection.
Even given a very favorable accounting - no PA by backups, both players with full platoon advantage - this is still a one-win downgrade on offense. I'd guess given a less favorable accounting, it'd be closer to two wins.
Here's one significant change they're pretty much guaranteed to make: Bringing Dustin Pedroia in to play the second half this year.
Snark aside, I'm not terribly concerned about this. If Victor Martinez's defense was as bad as everyone seems to think it was, then they probably can't lose all that much there. They'll lose the two wins on offense (or more) if the platoon doesn't wrk all that well, or if Saltalamacchia is just terrible, but the Sox had the second-best offense in the league last year, despite losing Pedroia and Youkilis for a combined five months and having Darnell McDonald and Daniel Nava starting in the outfield most of the season. The chances are extremely good that they'll make up enough ground just in having Pedroia and Youkilis back to make up for losing Martinez and any regression from Beltre, never mind the likelihood of a fully healthy Ellsbury and the possibility of Jed Lowrie supplanting Marco Scutaro and significantly upgrading the offense at shortstop.
Now, if the Sox lose Beltre and don't replace his offense, I'll start to get worried, but I think the Sox can absorb losing Martinez and give Saltalamacchia his sink-or-swim moment in 2011.
I know, its early. But if they're done at C, I'm extremely disappointed. If I'm gonna be stuck with a catching platoon that cant hit, why not at least find a couple of guys that can pick and throw it.
The problem with losing Victor and replacing him with _fill in the blank_, is now they're stuck clawing at whatever they can just to stay as talented as last years team. A team that, even healthy, was 3rd best in the AL East. They needed to get better this offseason.
Meanwhile, my personal favorite back-up option to the inevitable departure of Beltre just signed with the wrong Sox.
Barring a trade, signing Beltre is now paramount, with Dunn off the market so quickly, the alternatives start getting pretty thin pretty quick (Lee, Berkman, Pena, Cantu, LaRoche?)
Barring a trade, signing Beltre is now paramount, with Dunn off the market so quickly, the alternatives start getting pretty thin pretty quick (Lee, Berkman, Pena, Cantu, LaRoche?)
I agree 100% with this. Dunn was who they had to get if Beltre didn't come back. Gotta do whatever it takes to bring back Beltre now.
Yes and no. A (mostly) injury-free 2010 Boston team wins the division, IMO. I would say they just needed to tread water in terms of true talent in order to make the playoffs in 2011. Tampa is likely to be worse next season.
In my heart I was secretly hoping for Dunn, but I like Beltre too and the head says he's a better fit for the club than Dunn. Feels like he's destined for the west coast unless the Sox overpay, though.
That's not really Theo's style, is it? I can't remember the last time Boston made a big *offseason* trade.
-- MWE
Theo's style, in my experience, is to attempt to make big trades all the time. He usually doesn't succeed, but I don't think trades aren't his style - it's just that he shoots for big trades that usually fall through. Given that the offseason isn't shaping up to be one in which the Sox can make all necessary improvements through the FA market, and given that they seem to be accepting a multiple win downgrade at C instead of paying Victor Martinez $13M a season for four years, I have to hope Theo has some significant trades in the works.
They signed Mirabelli, probably the 2nd best C option on the market, in 2004-05 well before signing Varitek. They signed Wakefield to a 2-year deal last offseason, but it didn't stop them from signing Lackey and bumping Wake out of the rotation. I know these aren't great examples, but it has happened that Epstein, when faced with uncertainty in free agency, has handled the Plan B first.
So you're saying he's due...
I figure the Sox sign one of Crawford or Werth, and go from there. Unless they're trading for Upton I don't see the point of hoping for a trade, as the players who seem to be available otherwise aren't really that impressive. I suppose I could get behind a deal that moved DiceK for someone interesting, but I just don't see it...
I figure we at least owe it to the FO to see how the winter meetings go before we get our panties all wet.
Or let the guy who (in his short stint) outhit Hanley Ramirez and was a notch under Tulo play 3B....just a suggestion.
This isn't directed at anyone, but Ellsbury hits 131 OPS+ for a month in 2007 and everyone creams their pants, Jed hits 137 OPS+ for two months...and he's Claude Rains.
Of course Beltre-Lowrie-Pedroia-Youk would be even better.
The Rockies non-tendered MDC. I wonder if he'll turn up in Toronto with John Farrell (or maybe even in Pawtucket).
I'm thinking Youk-Lowrie-Pedroia-Derek Lee (if Beltre isn't signed).
Beyond that it wsan't just a month for Ellsbury. He was a highly regarded prospect who had rocketed through the minor leagues. That one month of performance was also the totality of his MLB performance. In Lowrie's case he was never as highly regarded as a prospect as Ellsbury and we can get all excited about his two months of 2010 but there is also the pesky 113 games of .685 OPS in 2008 and 2009 to consider.
The hype on Ellsbury was obviously overkill but I think the skepticism of Lowrie is warranted and I say this as someone who wants to see him in the starting lineup in 2011.
I think there's a good chance Lowrie, if healthy, can put up above average offensive numbers for a shortstop. He doesn't, though, project to put up anything even resembling the sort of numbers at 3B that Beltre projects to. And Beltre is always healthy, while Lowrie almost never is. I want Lowrie to be healthy, earn a shot at the SS job, and win it. I want the Red Sox to sign Adrian Beltre to play 3B.
@Mike E, I agree that he's usually not much of a big trade guy. But between his and Henry's recent comments, I get the sense that they feel they need to get younger and trades are the way to do that.
I know we have a tendency to get spoiled, and I have no doubts we'll miss Victor in 2011, but before him we had a catcher who couldn't hit all by himself. As others noted in the other thread, this platoon is extremely likely to be no worse than average for the position, which is still a far sight better than in 2008, when the Sox came within one game of the World Series despite their catchers posting OPS+es of 73, 67, 50 and -35, respectively. So I'm not sure it's accurate to say they "can't hit." Compared to Victor Martinez, sure, they'll be a couple steps down. But Victor Martinez isn't being paid to catch in 2011 either, such is his apparent reputation on defense.
wait until he contracts Valley Fever in 2011...
With the recent issues he's had, perhaps Lowrie's problems are less about being prone to injury and more about recovering very slowly, or needing to be at a very high level of health to perform well.
Or it could just be bad luck, or an issue (bad conditioning?) that won't affect him going forward. I sure hope so. But he's lost two of the last three seasons, and three of his six professional seasons have been hampered by injury / illness. It's hard to be particularly confident that Lowrie will be available and effective for a full season in 2011.
i disagree with parts of this. i think a healthy jed lowrie gets fairly close to beltre offensively. quickly glancing at the numbers, figure an 850 ops for beltre and 800 for lowrie? i don't think that's crazy if you make one big huge giant assumption: a healthy jed lowrie. beltre beats the crap out of lowrie b/c he's a much, much better bet to be healthy. defensively, beltre more than makes up for lowrie's positional advantage (avg at best shortstop for lowrie vs. top 3 in the game at 3rd for beltre).
Maybe not for sure, but let's not forget he posted a 90 OPS+ in 2008, which is still better than (EDIT: More like "same as" in all reality) Scutaro from the shortstop position, despite the broken wrist. Lowrie initially injured the wrist in May of that year, and he later said it was bothering him off and on all season until becoming acute enough in September that the Sox initially said he had broken it then.
So it doesn't take too much guesswork to figure out why Lowrie went from an .812 OPS after more than 200 plate appearances on Sept. 2 to a .739 OPS at season's end, courtesy a .197/.284/.276 line.
And in AAA, prior to his injury, he was pretty mediocre.
The super-sunny BJ projection has him at .361/.467 for 2011. But he really oughta hit a fair bit, and
his multi-positional abilities make him my pick as the next Sock Super Sub...800ish aint crazy at all.
I'd rather see him in that particular bench role.
And they absolutely need to re-sign Beltre. He's so lovable.
I don't understand. He was injured in May of that year, yet posted a .793 OPS in AAA before being called up and posting the aforementioned .812 OPS prior to September. The only real time he spent in Pawtucket before the injury, he posted an .862 OPS in 177 plate appearances at the end of 2007, which is anything but mediocre for a 23-year-old shortstop. His overall line in Pawtucket, over parts of 2007-10 was .268/.350/.458/.808 which still strikes me as better than mediocre for a shortstop, even at AAA.
That all said, we obviously both like him and agree that Lowrie should go into 2011 as the starter, and we both agree that there should be some caution about expecting the world out of him - certainly we shouldn't expect a repeat of his 2010 numbers. At this point, we're just arguing over shades of optimism.
oof. that plan sucks. let's not do that one. i like the one where the sox infield is youk/petunia/lowrie/beltre with scutaro still around in case lowrie breaks himself again.
die
Please ignore the "Bill James" projections, they're like an uber-fanboy let loose to run amok.
He's got Jesus Montero at 285/348/519 w/o an MLB at bat to his credit, and Eduardo Nunez ready to put up a 106 RC+ at SS.
sunk cost. if they can trade him for a useful player without having to pitch in for his salary (if they have to throw in $3 mil to get something decent back, he's only a $3 mil player) and still cover the backup middle infielder problem, i'd consider it.
Hey, I said "super-sunny", didn't I? By that, I was noting the BJ projections are far too optimistic. I suppose I was unclear.
I still think Lowrie figures to hit at an ~.800ish rate at 27 and healthy.
You did, but even that's not enough given their quality. The James projections are so bad they don't even admit adjustment. They are anti-data, they provide no signal, only noise. We're better off eyeballing mLB stats ourselves.
YMMV.
If we just called Scutaro the "starter" and Lowrie the "backup", would that make it make sense for you? As of right now, (one assumption is that) those two guys are going to fill those two roles on the team. What difference does salary make to the question of which is which?
I'd argue the contrary, for two reasons. First, I don't know who would trade for Scutaro and take on effectively his whole salary, with an eye toward making him the starter. I mean, obviously if they're taking on the salary they won't do it for him as a backup; but I expect it to be unlikely for a team to look to Marco Scutaro, Starter for their IF hole unless he can be had for a very good deal. Second, given Lowrie's health difficulties - and I suppose Pedroia's - they need a backup who can reasonably take the starter role for the whole season if necessary. Those shouldn't come cheaply. None will relish the idea of their playing time being contingent on someone else's gross misfortune. Scutaro is already under contract and doesn't have a say, and Epstein hasn't had a problem with parking someone on the bench with an inefficient contract - Crisp and Lowell are the obvious cases - instead of freeing up the cash.
Not expecting to see average defense out of him either, so in summary, I dont think the optimism in this thread is warranted.
Is he an acceptable option at SS? Yeah, sure, why not. Not enough for me to feel confident ditching Scutaro or even make it a given that Scutaro aint the starter in 2010.
If Lowrie proves he is healthy and better, that will be a good thing ... regardless of Scutaro's salary.
YMMV.
I think it's been shown they have a huge problem with MLEs; i.e. they systematically over-rate guys with little MLB history.
It is definitely not just an issue of a higher run-context, and IIRC, the James run-context for hitters doesn't match its run-context for pitchers.
It's a big blow that we're losing CHONE projections this year. We're down to ZiPs and CAIRO as the only reasonable public sources.
I don't think that's true, at least not with any meaningful level of certainty. I think it's 60-40 at best right now. The Sox have shown in the Theo era a willingness to put higher priced guys on the bench for young players (Ellsbury/Crisp, Lowrie/Lugo, Papelbon/Foulke) and I think if Lowrie comes into camp and shows he can do it the Sox would turn the job over to him.
Is this just based on general pessimism, or actual data? Because Lowrie has shown himself thus far to be a steady if average defender, as well as a reliable bat when his wrist isn't causing him intense pain. If you don't expect Lowrie to stay healthy, just say that.
And who's talking about ditching Scutaro without at least having a decent utility IF replacement?
I can understand skepticism about Lowrie's health and, to a lesser extent, what we can expect from his performance, but I don't get the overtly subjective pessimism.
The only evidence I've seen for over optimistic bias in BJ projections is a small study in a thread on the Book blog at the beginning of last year (I can re-find the link if you'd like). Where else are the studies/data that show this?
The study in the Book blog convinces me that the projections are not good - they likely won't sum up to zero as a league wide run differential. But, not so bad that they are "only noise." I'd guess that they are better than prior year, worse than Marcel.
For players with only ML histories, I don't see much need to go past Marcel. For players with mainly minor league histories, a modified Marcel (using MLEs, as Tango's Marcel will just call the player league average) is fine, but ZiPS feels better (even though I have no idea if that is true).
Anyway, if the Sox do acquire both Gonzalez and Werth, you'd be looking at a very formidable lineup in 2011:
CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
1B Gonzalez
3B Youk
DH Ortiz
LF Werth
RF Drew
C Salty/Tek
SS Lowrie/Scutaro
Bench:
C Tek/Salty
CIF PTBNL
IF Scutaro/Lowrie
OF Cameron (or McDonald if Cameron is dealt somewhere)
Grab a couple of mid-level bullpen arms, and I like this team's shot at the AL East crown.
From Olney again:Just about there...
Unless, you know, they just gave 120mill to a guy (and 5 prospects to SD) who never quite recovers from shoulder surgery.
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