Scouts looooooooooooove Westmoreland. BA had some quote about him having the tools of a top 5 pick out of high school, with the polish of a college hitter.

I think Iglesias is getting pretty underrated by the prospect hounds. I think they're lagging behind in terms of valuing defense.

Can't believe Lars is still getting ranked that highly. At some point people have to noticed that he's never hit well. Even in his breakout 2008, his MLE was .215/.287/.335

Yeah, I was down on Anderson long before it was fashionable to be down on Anderson. He's like Daric Barton without the terrifying power.

I think Iglesias is getting pretty underrated by the prospect hounds. I think they're lagging behind in terms of valuing defense.

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, because I very well may be, and often am, but the impression I am under is that all 30 teams could run out a lineup with plus defenders at every position, if they so chose. Unfortunately, most of these lineups would involve kids who can't hit in AA or even A ball, so some teams would struggle to score 500 runs.

This is all a convoluted way of saying "Who cares about the glove if he's going to hit .250/.310/.340?" (Not that I'm saying Iglesias will hit that poorly, but even if he's the Cuban Ozzie Smith, his bat is going to have to dictate his pace through the minors, as well as path to the majors. Unless you see him as a future utility player, in which case he wouldn't be on these lists)

Edit: I re-read the comment, and it sounds a bit abrasive. My apologies, that was not my intent.

I think the Sox would be happy if Iglesias hit that well in the majors. It's not that far from what the average MLB SS puts up.

Hey, Lars Anderson has never even had an MLE that good :)

If Iglesias actually was Ozzie Smtih good with the glove he would probably be one of the top 50 players in baseball with a mid 600's OPS

I almost fell out of my chair when I saw Rizzo on Law's list. I haven't seen everything else that's out there but unless he took a leap much larger than the numbers would suggest that's wildly different from everything else I've ever read about him.

I think I'm with Accent on Iglesias. It seems like the range of outcomes on him seems to be Omar Vizquel to Pokey Reese. It seems to me that there is little margin for error on a guy like that becoming a productive regular. If his glove is just a bit off or he struggles to reach a .650-.670 OPS it's a short trip from "top 50 prospect" to "utility infielder at best."

I've been generally down on Anderson but I think I'm more optimistic than most here. He was just 21 last year in a league in which the average hitter was 24 and even if you just parse out the top 20 hitters (min. 200PA) they still have an average age of 24 so I think it is too early to write him off. I think he is still very much what he has been all along, a big, young kid with good plate discipline who hasn't quite figured it out yet. I agree he has to take a step forward this year (particularly if Rizzo is for real) but while the hype last year was probably too much I think the pendulum has swung a bit too far in the other direction right now.

If Iglesias actually was Ozzie Smtih good with the glove he would probably be one of the top 50 players in baseball with a mid 600's OPS

I'm not so sure about that. Total Zone has Ozzie as worth 15-20 runs a year on defense in his prime, compared to league average. A mid-600's OPS is probably 5-10 runs a year below average for a shortstop. That would be a good player, but not an all-star caliber player. Now, maybe Ozzie would be 20-25 runs a year better than average nowadays because so many teams have placed a higher premium on hitting over defense at shortstop, but I think you're still far from the top 50 players in baseball there. If a guy is genuinely in the top 50 players in baseball, he should draw some down-ballot MVP support in his best years.

It seems like the range of outcomes on him seems to be Omar Vizquel to Pokey Reese. It seems to me that there is little margin for error on a guy like that becoming a productive regular. If his glove is just a bit off or he struggles to reach a .650-.670 OPS it's a short trip from "top 50 prospect" to "utility infielder at best."

Serious question: how often do scouts miss on plus defense? Every now and then they'll miss on plus hitting or plus pitching, projecting a prospect to be a LHP Greg Maddux or Ted Williams with more power, only for that prospect to struggle at AA. But when they project Vizquel-like defense, how often are they wildly off?

I've seen a few cases where they under-project, or the player develops defensive skills that are better than had been thought. But I don't recall too many optimistically-hyperbolic defensive claims about prospects that turned out to be way off.

I get your (valid) point that there's little wiggle room for an all-glove player to make it. I'm just wondering how much of a risk that really is.

There's a new thread over on SoSH by Philly about ranking the Sox prospects by probabilities.

That thread explains the methodology. This one allows you to post your own rankings (anyone can post in the second thread, since it's in the Minor League Forum).

Kelly has evidently exploded in many peoples' opinions over the last several weeks without having done anything at all. I'm less sanguine. Let's see how he does pitching a full season.

If Iglesias actually was Ozzie Smtih good with the glove he would probably be one of the top 50 players in baseball with a mid 600's OPS

Overvaluing defense . . . is the new market inefficiency!

Thank you, I'll be here all week.

Hijack: Anyone else having trouble getting through the Virtual Waiting Room for tickets today?

Dammit, I forgot to check for tix.

I am high on Tazawa. He went through a huge transition last year and still dominated in AA. I think that by the time we saw him, he was running on fumes. I'm also still high on Bowden--he has gotten excellent results at a young age, except for him time in MLB last year. Remember, even the best pitchers tend to get pounded early on.

I think the big thing for Rizzo was that he hit well enough to be promoted in a year where he was coming off cancer. That's pretty amazing.

Oh, and new ST thread on the offseason spending.

I was thinking the other day, this regime has often been praised for running a good farm system, but their particular strength is transitioning their prospects to the majors. Besides Craig Hansen, pretty much all their top prospects have not only avoided washing out, but reached their best-case scenario ceilings. That is extremely unusual.

I don't know if this is luck, or good player development, but it looks like Law is taking that karma into account. Because based simply on our prospects, I don't see being #2.

I dunno, Buchholz is as yet to really excel like people thought he would.

Interesting article about Westmoreland in the Projo yesterday. Gary DiSarcina compares him Darin Erstad, a frightening proposition for stat-heads. However, I think (hope?) he's talking less about his abilities as a player and more about his hard-nosedness (run through a wall once, and you will forever be known as "hard-nosed"). And anyway, the guy who once proclaimed his desire to go an entire season without a walk is going to have different ideas on player value than the average Primate.

Also, and more importantly, it's mentioned that he's gone from 195 to 220 lbs (while remaining 6'2"). Provided that's muscle, this is good news for his power potential, but probably rules out any chance of him sticking in center. Matt Kemp is the only CF that size I can think of and he's kind of an anomaly. ESPN lists Torii Hunter at 225, but B-R has him at 205 and I think they usually list the weight a guy broke in at. If Westmoreland's 220 at age 20, he's only going to get bigger. Which is fine, it just means the Sox need to figure out what to do with a troika of OF prospects who are all best suited to right field.

Hijack: Anyone else having trouble getting through the Virtual Waiting Room for tickets today?

No I didn't try, but on a semi-related note... Does anyone know if the Sox pay the company Tickets.Com to handle their online sales, or if that company pays the Sox for the right?

I think the Sox would be happy if Iglesias hit that well in the majors. It's not that far from what the average MLB SS puts up.

Hey, Lars Anderson has never even had an MLE that good :)

I think the latter point deserves the emphasis. When you have a player like Iglesias whose glove is apparently MLB quality at a crucial defensive position, it's important to recognize that most minor league shortstops could not be expected to post even a 600 OPS. The fact that Lars Anderson, who until last year had a very nice resume for a corner infield prospect, still hadn't put up an equivalent offensive season that would pass muster for a good defensive shortstop, shows how far you have to go from the low minors to be a real major leaguer.

I don't see any reason to think that Iglesias should be expected to put up a 600 OPS - as you show with the Lars Anderson example, even very good A-ball hitters aren't at that level, and Iglesias hasn't even played A-ball yet.

On the defense, what are your sources on Iglesias' glove? I haven't heard anyone say "Ozzie Smith" - I heard "Orlando Cabrera".

Which is fine, it just means the Sox need to figure out what to do with a troika of OF prospects who are all best suited to right field.

To be my usual snarky downer of a self, I think the solution is pretty obvious - neither Josh Reddick nor Ryan Kalish will ever be a major league right fielder on a contending team, so you don't consider them when you're planning Westmoreland's development.

Oh you're a lot of fun. Our superstar SS's never going to OPS .600 and none of our outfielders will pan out. Magnus, is that you? ;)

To be my usual snarky downer of a self, I think the solution is pretty obvious - neither Josh Reddick nor Ryan Kalish will ever be a major league right fielder on a contending team,

Agreed. At best they're bench pieces for the Sox. Even then, the Sox seem to prefer stocking higher-upside guys like Wily Mo Pena and Jeremy Heredia. Somewhere down the line, Reddick and Kalish will probably be traded for upgrades elsewhere, like Murton, Murphy and Moss before them.

These guys are better prospects than those guys. Murton was hitting well in high-A at 22 and was clearly a corner OF. When Murphy was dealt, he was 25 and doing alright in AAA. He had had a completely uninteresting minor-league record. Moss had some interesting numbers but was a K machine.

Reddick was 22 this year, hit well at AA, has a great arm, and is considered a possible CF. Kalish was a year younger, plays CF, was awesome in A ball, and held his own in AA. They are both solid B prospects, which i think Murton was but those other guys really weren't, especially when they got dealt. I think there's a pretty good chance that one of these guys ends up replacing Drew or Cameron.

Just FYI, Sickels rated Westmoreland as a B+, and the #20 hitter in his book this year. Kalish and Reddick both were given B's, and were rated 39th and 40th among hitters.

Reddick was 22 this year, hit well at AA, has a great arm, and is considered a possible CF. Kalish was a year younger, plays CF, was awesome in A ball, and held his own in AA. They are both solid B prospects, which i think Murton was but those other guys really weren't, especially when they got dealt. I think there's a pretty good chance that one of these guys ends up replacing Drew or Cameron.

I guess it all depends on how "a pretty good chance" is quantified, but I think that your descriptions of Reddick and Kalish were reasonable, and I would conclude from that that Reddick and Kalish are quite unlikely to be average or above average outfielders within a year or two, when you're suggesting the Red Sox would start one of them in a corner position.

Both Kalish and Reddick are solid prospects. Very few solid prospects turn into solid contributors to playoff clubs within a year or two. Most of them never turn into solid contributors to playoff clubs. (I'm pretty sure Moss was a B-prospect coming out of A-ball.)

I do think the description of Reddick really needs to note that he's either got to overhaul his approach at the plate, or start hitting for a lot more contact on balls out of the zone if he's going to be a major league hitter. Reddick has the arm and the power, but he's got no idea what he's doing at the plate - or, worse, he doesn't have the physical ability to quickly identify pitches to hit.

I'd say a pretty good chance is over 50%. I guess I do tend to be optimistic on these things but I don't think you have to be optimistic to put these guys above Murton/Murphy/Moss. And yes, I recall Moss being a B prospect at one point, but these guys are in the upper minors.

On Reddick, I don't see why he doesn't just need to continue to improve. He has always been good at making contact (although he was clearly overmatched in MLB this year). I don't think you've really made much of a case for why he, moreso than any other player, has to overhaul his approach.

BA Top 100 puts Reddick at #75--two spots ahead of FMart (that part is shocking). No Kalish.

Sox on the list with their best skill and grade:

Westmoreland #21 (70 Speed)
Kelly #24 (70 Command)
Reddick #75 (70 Arm)
Lars #87 (60 Power, blech)

Also, people are sleeping on Tazawa. He had an amazing year last year AA/AAA in his first year in North America. That's not a fluke.