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1. Hugh Jorgan Posted: July 06, 2011 at 04:42 AM (#3869760)Call me an ignorant man, but what the f*ck have been doing with Buchholz these past two weeks? What after two weeks of sitting in the dugout with a sore back, NOW they decide to send him to a back specialist. Why wasn't anyone thinking that maybe the first day he was out that they should have their $50million commodity looked at by the specialist then?
Will they do the same with Lester? Oh, John, it's just a strain, just rest it and in two weeks if it's not right, THEN we'll send you to see someone.
Sorry, I'm trying not to picture this 2011 going down the toilet right now.
I remember Becketts back pain that cost him 2 months, with nary a word about a MRI, and he did not exactly come back very strong. In fact, he has never recovered his velocity. This year, two starts after throwing 126 pitches Beckett came out of a game early with neck pain. Since the 126 pitch game, Beckett has averaged 97 pitches per start over the last 12 starts, and missed 10 games due to the "flu". Beckett did not finish 2008 or 2009 very strong, so him being counted on down the stretch as the only healthy SP'er is a concern.
Anyone hear the magic 3 letters (MRI)used in Buchholz case? Now he is seeing a specialist? Buchholz developed back problems shortly after being allowed to throw 127 pitches in a game and had not thrown more than 100 pitches over his last 6 starts before going on the DL.
Daisuke was allowed to make several starts after being pulled early one game with his velocity down to 87, where it stayed. An MRI finally showed he needed TJ surgery, although it did not convince the Red Sox docs until Daisuke saw Dr Yoccum.
Lackey of course has known problems with his elbow, so it's just a matter of when he and Red Sox docs will be convinced to get TJ surgery. That clause in his contract that commits him to 1 years slavery if he has it may make Lackey a bit reluctant to go the surgery route.
You can never have too much pitching. We have 44 yo Wake, Marlin reject Miller who has dominated some weak NL teams, and injury prone Yankee reject Aceves. Doubront got hammered in his last start in Triple A, but we have Millwood, and some kid named Weiland. No worries.
Your manager needs to call TLR and tell him how to give Chris Carpenter this light workload.
I honestly hadn't considered the case that the Red Sox have been overworking their starters. If the case is that a few times their pitchers threw 120 pitches, I don't think there's a case there.
Beyond that the Sox are in decent shape. They have a four game lead in the Wild Card and I'm confident that Aceves can step in and pitch well enough. Peter Gammons was pimping Weiland for the start on Sunday during the post-game show last night. I think Buchholz is the bigger concern. If he's out for an extended period that becomes problematic. There is a very real possibility that the Sox hit the end of the month with Crawford, Lester and Buchholz all coming back healthy. Even with Matsuzaka's suck/injury and Lackey's suck they are on a 96 win pace.
I think the break is coming at the exact right time. Besides getting some time for the guys I've mentioned Youkilis looks like a guy who can use the rest too. Unlike last year I think this team is poised to make a second half run. I also am skeptical that the Yankees can keep this up. Maybe Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia are going to give them 60 starts with a 3.00 ERA but even this far into the season I'm not buying it.
He's done that a lot in his career. I'm biased by both fandom and seeing him regularly but he's the best I've seen since Scioscia. If he gets that left leg planted, forget it.
It was a really nice slide by Encarnacion, too.
I also was thinking that the visiting announcers may have received a surprise souvenir if Reddick had been in there.
As for the rotation:
Beckett-Ace
Miller-Perfectly fine back of the rotation pitcher
Wakefield-Explosive
Aceves-Explosive pinhead (though I really hoped he wouldn't be)
Lackey-Explosive pinhead.
This is sheer beauty. Thanks for the morning chuckle.
As for Aceves being a pinhead, I meant in terms of throwing the ball up around people's heads and not seeming to give a ####. He's got 6 hbp in some 50 innings, then there was the whole balk thing. Pinhead.
edit: As for Lackey...anyone else notice in Lackey's last start, that everytime a fielder made a less than stellar play they would run a slow-motion replay of Lackey during said play? Somebody in the booth sure likes to give Don and Jerry something else to talk about besides their bobbleheads, how long it took them to get to the park, Jerry's Red Sox career....
Of course, we're dealing with such small samples here that it's probably more of a "who knows?" situation.
The medical staff, on the other hand ...
Who has been absolutely lights out in his last 2 starts: 18 K 0 BB. I'd give him Sunday's start just to see what they've got in him-they say his stuff is as good as anybody in the organization.
If he actually has great stuff to go w/ the numbers, all the better.
The scariest pitcher headline is "...seeing Dr Andrews".
I've been saying this since last year. The medical and training staff needs a serious overhaul, if not in the personnel then in how they do things. Guys are getting hurt left and right, backwards and forwards for a long time now. That's not even counting the traumatic injuries (e.g. Beltre trucking people). You've got repeated misdiagnoses of Ellsbury's ribs. You've got Daisuke butting heads with the staff, getting injured, then needing TJ. You've got Buchholz going on the DL every year and the team taking forever to diagnose the problem. Pedroia coming back early. Beckett. Lester. Possibly Lackey.
This #### needs to be fixed.
Regarding the medical staff, I've heard the same complaints from fans of other teams: "Our medical staff stinks! These injuries are always worse than they think at first!" Injuries and treating them are not an exact science, as much as we want them to be. And still... it does seem like we get a ton of them and too many guys come back and play hurt or go out for a seemingly small thing and never come back.
When you're pitching like an ace, you're "eccentric," when you aren't you're a "pinhead."
-Aceves will start Sunday, with Atchison called up to be the long man for the week
-Buchholz' back specialist thinks he'll get better with just rehab, no timetable
-Lester's MRI was "good news" and he should only miss two or three starts
-Crawford expected back shortly after the All-Star break
He's been on fire in Pawtucket and it seems like a great chance to see him in the majors with Lester out for a few starts, especially since he might be an option to replace Lackey for the last few months if Lackey can't turn things around. I think they should give Lackey and Weiland each 2-3 starts until Lester is back, and at that point you can determine who to keep in the rotation going forward. I'm hoping that Weiland gets a chance and establishes himself, thus forcing the Sox to sit Lackey.
I think a rotation of Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Miller/Weiland would be pretty solid for August and September, with Wake and Aceves available for spot start duty.
Aceves pitching in relief tonight, so it looks like it'll probably be Weiland on Sunday. Cool.
Millwood started on the 3rd and Weiland on the 4th. The Red Sox could call on either of them for Sunday.
Sox are 50-25 since the 2-10 start. Oh and on the season they are 19-12 in games started by Lester and Buchholz. They're 32-23 in all other games.
Milwood had a bad start two starts ago, but he hasn't been awful-awful (i.e., he's not been Lackey-bad). While I hope it's Weiland, I wonder if they'll go the safe route and see what Milwood has left.
It's still possible that they treat last night as Aceves' throwing day and give him the start, but it looks like Weiland is the most likely.
Also, I didn't watch the game last night. Was Miller bad? Why no Ks? Was it bad luck, a bad night, or has he been coasting against terrible offenses?
I didn't see a guy who was really "letting the ball go".
He's been pretty lucky so far. It makes me wince to think how he'll look vs. a real buzzsaw lineup. We have that to look forward to.
Of course Lackey's set to pitch Saturday, which will tax the pen.
Not quite the same, but I know Randy Johnson used to bat righty.
I am a bat left, throw right.
I think there were 3 factors here. The first was the jump in the quality of the offense he faced. The second thing is that he was facing a lineup with 7 righties, 1 switch hitter, and 1 lefty. A guy like Miller is going to look worse when he only gets to face a lefty in 3 of the plate appearances of the night. And that lefty (Markakis) is a guy with virtually no platoon split anyway. So Miller had platoon splits working against him all night. And his third issue was that his offspeed stuff just wasn't really working for him last night. His fastball started off flat in the first couple of innings too, but eventually he got up to 92-94 with the fastball and it looked okay. But the slider and the change up really weren't effective pitches for him last night like they were against the Padres. I don't know if it's due to inconsistency with his mechanics or what, but I think there's still upside here against AL teams for him on a night where he can get all 3 pitches working. As we saw against the Padres in particular, when he has all 3 pitches his fastball is the worst pitch of the 3, and last night the fastball was really the only thing that WAS working for him, yet he got through 5 innings without blowing up like John Lackey or anything.
I'm also getting the feeling Drew's days with the club are numbered. The past two games they've both played in, Reddick's hit 6th and Drew 8th; Drew had always batted first previously. Reddick's also now up to 1.5 WAR, good for 6th on the team in just 20 games, while Drew's at 0.3 in 4 times as many PA. There's obviously a lot that's unsustainable about his line -- he's not gonna BABIP .409 or UZR/150 87.2 -- but he's got power and is a beast on defense. At this point, I'd rather see him in right than Drew when Crawford comes back.
Jason Marquis does it.
Carlos Zambrano switch hits. Dunno if that counts.
Though, really, the baseball gods owe the Red Sox one Aaron Small-type season from somebody obscure. It seems to happen every damn year for the Yankees and I can't remember the last time it did for the Red Sox.
So one theory I have is that the Red Sox are sort of stuck: Lackey won't agree to get the surgery willingly (and will pitch in pain if he has to), because he doesn't want the 2015 option invoked... but the Red Sox putting him on the DL, letting him rest the elbow, etc. is just delaying the inevitable, so they'd actually prefer Lackey to just keep on pitching until the elbow finally goes in a spectacular blow-out that forces the surgery option, and then we all re-convene in February 2013 to see what we have going forward, when Lackey would effectively be on a 3-year deal for $31 million or so. (A deal which is not perhaps as onerous to trade, should Lackey have some effectiveness coming back from the surgery.)
It's not the craziest of theories; it does at least explain the Red Sox continued insistence on throwing him out there every 5th day... to them it's the only way the elbow issue will finally come to a head/get dealt with.
Drew probably has very little trade value come the 7/31 deadline, although if the Red Sox pick up most of the remaining salary, they probably could move him (if moving him was what they wanted to do). But, again, I just don't see this happening. He's a veteran guy who still can play RF well and draw a walk. While he might not be worth starting, you could do a lot worse that Drew as a backup OF the last 2-3 months of the season.
I suspect they'll keep 5 OF on the roster the rest of the season once Crawford gets back, and 5 IF, with either Navarro or Lowrie as the 5th IF.
I would want to keep Drew around for depth - there's every chance that one of Ellsbury, Crawford, Reddick, or Papi might miss two weeks here or there. Francona, though, will have to smooth things over with JD and convince his veteran to take a more limited role than he's ever played before.
**The most telling stat, I think, is Reddick's swing percentage on balls out of the zone. Between 2009 and 2010, in the majors, Reddick swung at 6% more pitches out of the zone than an average hitter, and this year he's swung at 15% fewer pitches out of the zone than an average hitter.
It's notable also that his walk rate in AAA this year is way above his previous career high.
I'd rather have an infielder who can play some OF as the 5th OF than Drew. Either Sutton or Navarro (though I prefer Navarro). With 2 infielders on the bench you can DH Youk against some lefties and still PH for your SS or 3B with Ortiz at some point in the game. Early this year when there were only 5 IF on the roster and Youk DHed, you couldn't PH for Scutaro or Lowrie because there was no one else on the bench who could play SS or 3B.
Once everyone is healthy I'd like to see a lineup of:
CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
1B Gonzalez
3B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
LF Crawford
C Saltalamacchia
RF Reddick
SS Lowrie
Then you'd have a bench of:
C Varitek
2B/SS Scutaro
IF/OF Navarro
OF McDonald
That has a lot more flexibility than it does if you take out Navarro and put Drew on the bench. I would hate to lose Drew and then have one of the OFers or Ortiz go down for an extended stretch, but I don't think that risk is worth wasting a spot on the 25 man roster with a player with no role on the team while everyone is healthy.
If one of Crawford, Ellsbury, Reddick, or Ortiz gets hurt, and Drew has been traded, who would take regular PA? McDonald? Navarro? Rush Chiang or Hassan? The Sox need JD Drew in that scenario. I think that's a more valuable player to keep in the 25th roster slot than an equally redundant backup IF.
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