Opening Day Roster
Lots of Sox Therapy posts lately but I’ll add another one since with Opening Day just two weeks away I think it’s time we had an Opening Day Roster thread. Things are starting to fall into shape with injuries and performances clearing up some open questions. David Ortiz’ injury is the one that’s going to get the headlines but with yesterday’s Boston.com story about Stephen Drew I think we have to acknowledge that our Opening Day shortstop is going to be someone other than Drew.
With that in mind here is one man’s pass at an Opening Day roster (note this is a guess, not a wish);
1B – Mike Napoli
2B – Dustin Pedroia
3B – Will Middlebrooks
SS – Jose Iglesias
LF – Jonny Gomes
CF – Jacoby Ellsbury
RF – Shane Victorino
C – Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B – Mike Carp
UTIL – Pedro Ciriaco
OF – Ryan Sweeney
OF – Daniel Nava
C – David Ross
Notable DL – David Ortiz, Stephen Drew
Notable Minor Leagues - Ryan Lavarnway, Brock Holt, Mauro Gomez
There are two meaningful decisions to be made it seems. I think Sweeney is well-regarded enough by the club and has played well enough (.265/.359/.294) that the club would prefer not to lose him so he has the inside track on the OF/DH slot that is freed up in Ortiz’ absence. The other one is the backup first baseman. I go back and forth on this one between Carp and Overbay and I think Carp by virtue of youth and the fact that he was traded for probably gets the gig. I think Overbay is a better fit as a superior defensive first baseman though.
One guy I want to mention is Juan Carlos Linares (.345/.355/.586). Sample sizes and opposition quality issues impact all Spring numbers of course but Linares doesn’t seem to be on the radar. Frankly I’d love to see him take the DH role for the first couple of weeks and see what happens. I’ve been a fanboy of his for awhile though so take that for what it’s worth.
I think Iglesias gets sent down upon Drew’s return.
Pitchers
SP – Jon Lester, Ryan Dempster, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Felix Doubront
RP – Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara, Alfredo Aceves, Andrew Miller, Clayton Mortensen
Notable DL – Craig Breslow, Franklin Morales
Notable Minor Leagues - Daniel Bard
I think the Sox like Mortensen enough that he’ll be kept since he is out of options (according to Sox Prospects). It’s a bit frustrating that Bard and Tazawa are quite possibly the two best relievers the Sox have yet they also are likely to be on the Pawtucket shuttle by virtue of having options.
The return of Morales and/or Breslow is going to make things hinky if there isn’t an injury or a trade before they return. I would not be the least bit surprised if Aceves is dealt before Opening Day.
I don’t think that Allen Webster’s great Spring has vaulted him into serious consideration for a spot to start the season but I think a good start as a starter in Pawtucket will put him a bit higher on the depth chart when an injury to a starter happens.
Inevitably every time I go through an exercise like this I miss someone obvious. I look forward to someone pointing out “hey, you missed this guy you idiot.”
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: March 18, 2013 at 11:06 AM (#4390459)Carp, Nava, and Gomes rotate through LF/DH - I'd expect Gomes will play mostly DH, with Nava and Carp playing the field more often. I'd still probably rather see Bradley out there - and according to John Farrell, Bradley still has a shot. If Bradley makes the roster, he most likely just replaces Nava, and Carp and Gomes share the DH job. Ryan Sweeney would be entirely superfluous to that roster, but I figure the Sox don't want to let him go, and it's not like Daniel Nava would add much either.
I don't see much of any purpose to Lyle Overbay - if you put him at 1B to upgrade the defense, you either have to downgrade the offense by resting Napoli or hurt the defense even more by playing Gomes in the field. I guess he could play the occasional game with Gomes on the bench and Carp in the outfield, but I'm not really seeing what he brings to this club.
I don't have any problem with Bard proving himself against AAA competition first, and if Tazawa keeps pitching like he did in the fall, he won't be on the shuttle. I think it's more likely that if the Sox had to make a move, they'll have a DL option or they'll try to slip Mortenson through waivers.
I agree about Aceves and a possible trade, though it sure seems that there just isn't a real market for his particular brand of above average pitching combined with bugnuts lunacy.
2B – Dustin Pedroia
3B – Will Middlebrooks
SS – Jose Iglesias
LF – Jonny Gomes
CF – Jacoby Ellsbury
RF – Shane Victorino
C – Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B – Mike Carp
UTIL – Pedro Ciriaco
OF – Ryan Sweeney
OF – Daniel Nava
C – David Ross
Uch. Unless there are big strides forward by youngsters, this lineup needs Ortiz in a bad way.
The outfield will be fine IF Ellsbury and Victorino catch a good portion of their 2011 stats and Gomes sits often against RHP. I still hope Sweeney can be a decent platoon partner.
Over on SOSH, a smart guy named Div School Something is making a good case for Bradley. He points out that good, contending teams try to win when they have the chance--they don't worry about the theoretical possibility that a player might cost a bit more in six years. So if Bradley is the best option, he should be up playing in Boston in April at least.
Nava has options, too, so Gomez v Nava is an even fight on that front.
Again that's IF they truly think he's ready. If not then obviously he should be in AAA. Personally I think he's worth a shot, unless he starts getting overpowered by major league pitchers in the last few weeks of camp.
I have no doubt that he can do it, but I still think it's a good idea to have him do it before the season starts. As I type this out I feel like that might be the sign that the Sox are seriously considering going down this road.
EDIT: According to RedSox.com Bradley has only played CF this Spring
Yup. His path was a bit similar to JBJ. Ellsbury had 225 PA at AA in 2006 as a 22 year old (Bradley had 271 last year also as a 22 year old). In 2007 Ellsbury started at AA, tore it up, got promoted to AAA then made his debut June 30 and played for about a week. He came up for one day in August (the day of Buchholz' MLB debut) then returned for good on September 1. I thought he had played more than he actually did pre-September but he actually had just 20 PA prior to September 1.
It's probably worth noting that Ellsbury is an "old" player with a September birthday while Bradley is a "young" player with an April birthday so apples to apples he's 7 months younger than Ellsbury.
Ellsbury came up for a week, then a day, then the end of 2007, and was then penciled in as the starter in CF for 2008. Not really the same as Nava.
Nice work on the ZIPS projections:
BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
.297 .349 .392 134 549 87 163 34 3 4 58 37 72 43 6
.280 .336 .394 145 554 98 155 22 7 9 47 41 80 50 11
Sorta coke to Jose
Extremely!
Shoulda mentioned those are Ells's 2008 ZIPS and actual stats
Not convinced they are right but it was an interesting view from guys who follow Bradley as closely as anyone does.
That's not an argument: it goes without saying! How can you not be convinced they are right? If Bradley weren't an anointed prospect, if he were say Derek Bell, no one would think he deserved a spot on the roster from 40 AB, no matter how good his BA. Small samples are small samples, and around here, in big samples we trust. Why promote a kid from AA who hasn't even sniffed AAA yet? He has 61 games in AA! This is exactly the definition of a half-baked idea and exactly the thing that mediots love to cook up to give themselves something to write about.
He looks great so far, but he still has much to prove.
1. He starts the year with the big club, struggles a bit and is sent down. This is not a catastrophe. If he can't rebound from this then he's probably not an MLB player in 1, 2, 3 or 10 years.
2. He starts the year with the big club and cements his place in the lineup. Obviously this is wonderful.
3. He starts the year in Pawtucket.
This isn't a guy who is going to follow the Roger LaFrancois path. If he's on the roster he's going to be playing and I don't see a downside to taking a shot. If he busts, hey, by May 1st he's playing at Pawtucket. Dustin Pedroia was a disaster for his first two months in the bigs, Mike Trout was overmatched in 2011 and I'm sure I could spend time and come up with a host of other guys who had a bad month at the start of their careers.
All players are individuals. Most players will develop better with more time in the high minors, but not all of them. The Sox have to both treat Bradley as a statistic (probably he hasn't improved that much) and as an individual (whatever the coaches and scouts are saying. They should certainly err on the side of treating Bradley like a statistic, but you have to be open to seeing the individual doing something unexpected - you don't want to miss out on a significant improvement to your MLB team.
ZiPS wOBA for Red Sox LF/DH:
.330 - Gomes
.311 - Gomez
.309 - Nava
.308 - Bradley
.305 - Carp
Given defense and baserunning, he might already be the best option. Obviously there's the issue of what will maximize Bradley's development and all that, but there's a good case by the stats for giving the job to Bradley.
EDIT: Coke to Dan.
If Bradley is a 3 or 4 WAR player then
A. It's going to be really obvious really quickly
B. it won't even cost the major league team a win to keep him on the farm for a month.
The difference is that the injury vacancy didn't exist at the start of the year last year, it exists now for Bradley. I don't think anyone here is really anticipating 6 months and 500 PA for Jackie Bradley at the MLB level. What is more likely is he starts the year in Boston, then goes down when Ortiz comes back to play every day and wait for performances (either his or Gomes) or injury to create an opening.
Frankly, if Jackie Bradley spends the entire season in MLB I think that's a very very good thing because it's only going to happen if he sparkles right out of the gate.
If Bradley spends the first 11 days of the season in the minors he's not a free agent until after 2019
If Bradley spends any 20 days of the season in the minors he's not a free agent until after 2019
Like I said I think this makes it a pretty easy decision to keep him to start the year. He's playing well, he's talented and there is a need. Unless he's hitting .320 when Ortiz comes back he goes to Pawtucket for three weeks, no harm, no foul. The "worst" case scenario is he proves he's an MLB regular right now and if that's the case the Sox get a boost and in 2018 they can write him a great big check.
Jacoby Ellsbury CF
Shane Victorino RF
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Mike Napoli 1B
Will Middlebrooks 3B
Jonny Gomes LF
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
Daniel Nava DH
Jose Iglesias SS
Isn't Nava a better fielder than Gomes? Is this just to get Gomes more practice time in LF?
I don't see it.
That's the thing though isn't it? We'd all love to see a 140 OPS+, 6+ WAR season from him this year, but if that happens, his value will skyrocket and your hopes of signing him for 5/75 are gone. Now if he puts together a rather tasty 120 OPS+, 4+ WAR season, and much of that WAR value is based on fielding and baserunning, then he'll still be had for a decent price. If he posts a 4+ WAR season and the value is mostly accrued on hitting, then he'll be expensive.
In addition, rushing JBJ denies the opportunity to see how he handles AAA; [24] is true and well spoken regarding players' individuality (see guys like Hanley that didn't really bother putting it together until the show), but all the same I think a stepped development path has value in most cases. Based on JBJ's career so far, I don't see why he'd be an exception.
It would definitely be fun to have him up, and maybe even break out, but it seems like it being really fun (and maybe slightly better than the other options) is the main reason we're discussing it. Not that I'm opposed to fun! Maybe I'm being a bit... conservative; I'm picturing Dana Carvey's HW Bush: "Wouldn't be prudent."
Ellsbury's biggest liability has been health. I can imagine some other team looking at him, then looking at the Red Sox medical staff, then thinking "opportunity".
(Depending on how he looks this year, obviously.)
Bradley is a polished college player with an advanced approach. In addition, he was a consensus top 10 or so pick before his Junior year, and fell to the Sox with a supplemental pick because his Jr. year was underwhelming due to the busted wrist. But he's shown literally zero signs of the wrist being any kind of issue, and has looked 100% the guy that he was supposed to be when he was being talked about in the top 10. A talent like that, drafted out of college, is exactly the type of player who can make the jump from AA to the majors.
Beyond that, he's a plus glove and a plus baserunner, meaning that even if he hits into poor luck or goes cold starting April 1st, he's still likely to produce value for the team in the other phases of the game. And they can send him down for at least the 20 days they need to delay FA until after 2019 when Ortiz comes back. No one is going to question the Sox saying "Ortiz needs his starting spot back and we want Bradley to get every day ABs so we're sending him to Pawtucket".
Pedroia and Ellsbury were similarly polished college players with advanced approaches, and spending time in AAA didn't seem to hurt them much. I'd like to see Bradley have a little more success in some games that matter at a higher level, and that's traditionally been the Red Sox way as well. All the recent position prospects have spent at least some time in AAA. Bradley did well in AA, but it's not like he was destroying the league in his 61 games there. It just seems like too small a sample of games that mean too little to make a sound judgment about, and I'd wait to call him up until it's clear that he's superior to the in-house guys.
All that said, I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him up at the beginning of the season, as long as he can get his at-bats. People would absolutely question it if Bradley was hitting well when Ortiz came back, though. It would be a huge debate.
But this is a good thing. If Bradley is playing so well that we don't want to send him down that's good for the Boston Red Sox, not bad.
The only bad result here is that if Bradley doesn't play well, doesn't get at bats, but remains on the big league roster all season. The Sox need to send him down for 20 days at some point during the season to lock in 2019. They should have plenty of opportunities to do that.
If Bradley plays well at the start of the season and then remains on the team when Ortiz comes back it means someone else doesn't remain with the team - Sweeney, Carp, or Nava either go back to the minors or have to get put through waivers and the Sox potentially lose them (do any of them have options left?). If Bradley starts sucking in July and the Sox want to send him down to AAA there is a very real chance that they are then left with a worse outfield because they lost their (already slim) outfield depth. That is a bad result of Bradley doing well to start the season.
Sweeney, Carp and Nava may not be good players, and none of them will probably ever be more than a 3rd outfielder at best, but watching them is at least better than seeing Scott Shitty Podsednik play in 63 games.
Last year the Sox expected outfield was Sweeney/Ellsbury/Crawford. These three guys combined to play 168 games between them. It's one thing to plan for some injuries, it's another to plan for an absolute catstrophic fiasco. The fact is if Victorino/Ellsbury/Gomes combine for 168 games having Mike Carp or Ryan Sweeney isn't going to make a difference in the Sox being competitive in any fashion. At that point I'd rather see Bradley or Brentz or hell Alex Hassan or Jeremy Hazelbaker (the latter two having virtually no hope of being productive MLB players). Ryan Kalish will be back midseason to fill some of those lost at bats.
And again, this can't be stressed enough; having Jackie Bradley on the Opening Day roster does NOT doom him to being a free agent after 2018. The Sox simply need to have him in the minors for three weeks at some point this year. I just can't see that not happening.
Do we really need time to figure out what the Red Sox "have" in Carp/Nava/Sweeney?
If Bradley is better than an alternative, he plays. Simple as that.
Hasnt Nava cleared waivers a couple times in the past? Carp might get claimed, oh shucks. Sweeney? Really. These are all 25th man type questions and your going to base a developmental decision on your 2nd best prospect because you're afraid of the onerous task of replacing either Nava, Sweeney, or Carp? Hell Linares might be as good or better than any of them right now.
And I like Carp, would want to see if his power plays in Fenway, but I wouldnt be sad to see him go.
I don't think Victorino or Drew will play anywhere near the money being paid them, and that Hanrahan will have soul-crushing Aceves moments and eventually be supplanted...but what can ya do. After the first game in 2011, I knew the team would be swept. Knew they would lose the third game in Detroit in 2012. This team strikes me as the kind that actually can reset the clock from game to game.
I will say that our constant turnover is kind of a joke though...I mea...who are these guys? I've been saying this for years and there's no end in sight.
Was I the only one not aware that Kalish was this badly injured? I had the sense he was looking at a June-ish return. This is pessimistic to the point of being time to officially throw in the towel on "Ryan Kalish - MLB Player."
Do the Sox have appreciably more turnover than other teams? Pedroia, Ellsbury, Ortiz, Lester and Buchholz all date back to 2007 and earlier. This years team is dramatically different from last year's but that's a function of the Punto trade and frankly about what you'd want from a 69-93 team. I mean if you go 69-93 I don't think "hey, let's bring 'em all back!" is exactly the right mindset.
I think we're having this whole conversation because it's not so simple. Or, it's not simple to judge whether Bradley is meaningfully better than the alternatives with much certainty. No one was putting Bradley forward as a starting candidate in 2013 before Spring Training, and I'm kind of surprised that people here would be putting so much emphasis on 3 weeks of stats that aren't particularly predictive of regular-season performance. Player quality is highly variable, pitchers are still tuning up and aren't really attacking hitters using scouting reports yet.
1. The Sox have suffered some injuries. Ortiz' is the most high profile but Ryan Kalish should be taking the spot that Bradley is now fighting for and even a guy like Bryce Brentz could potentially have been in line for a short term stint if he hadn't shot himself.
2. Bradley has played great. As MCoA noted upthread this isn't some random guy having a few good weeks, this is one of the top 50 prospects in baseball possibly making a leap.
3. The alternatives really are pretty unimpressive. The odd man out here is probably going to be Lyle Overbay who had an OPS+ of 88 and 93 the last two years.
When I first heard about Ortiz starting the year on the DL, I immediately thought that meant Mauro Gomez would have a spot. I would think that an open DL spot is the perfect chance to see how a minor league slugger could handle big-league pitching. (I am not disputing that the case for Bradley is sound.)
Having 2 1/2 center fielders helps when finding a 4th outfielder to back them up.
He's played great, but even Darnell McDonald can play great (.427/.512/.816) in a small sample that has even less predictive value than actual minor league stats. I don't think tiny, high variation samples become more predictive just because a player has good pedigree. There are good reasons why we don't really pay attention to ST stats when evaluating a player at any other time of year.
Because he's a completely forgettable AAA slugger with no real value. That's the reason.
Look, if Bradley starts out and is completely overmatched he goes back to Pawtucket and the only harm is that the Sox probably lose the third guy on that list above. Are we really that worried about losing any of those three guys?
The argument against Bradley seems to be twofold;
1. Loss of Carp/Nava/Sweeney/whoever - Yes that's a risk but seriously, the Boston Red Sox 2013 season is not going to be defined by Mike Carp. If the Sox need Mike Carp to play a big role then they're kind of ######.
2. He'll be a free agent in 2018 rather than 2019 - As I've noted this only happens if Bradley wins the LF job outright and that is a good thing.
The Sox have an opening on the roster right now. There is reason to believe that Jackie Bradley is that best player at that position available, for that reason I think he should be on the club.
Jackie Bradley
Mike Carp
Mauro Gomez
Daniel Nava
Lyle Overbay
Ryan Sweeney
My ranking;
1. Bradley
2. Nava
3. Carp
4. Sweeney
5. Gomez
6. Overbay
That didn't stop him from remembering Nava and Carp...
If he's healthy, I'd place Sweeney second and move the others down.
Ellsbury CF
Victorino RF
Pedroia 2B
Napoli 1B
Middlebrooks 3B
Gomes DH
Bradley Jr. LF
Lavarnway C
Iglesias SS
strong, strong believer in the 'bobby gone' factor. seen it so many times. players are going to enjoy going to the ballpark. and that matters.
so you should have a reason to enjoy this season as i find it very likely that if nothing else the team will try hard, be enthused and at times surprise its fan base.
that and the band wagon crowd has likely moved on so you get your team back in a way.
anyway, that's my two cents
good luck
strong, strong believer in the 'bobby gone' factor. seen it so many times. players are going to enjoy going to the ballpark. and that matters.
so you should have a reason to enjoy this season as i find it very likely that if nothing else the team will try hard, be enthused and at times surprise its fan base.
that and the band wagon crowd has likely moved on so you get your team back in a way.
anyway, that's my two cents
good luck
There's also absolutely no expectations going into the season, so any actual competitiveness is just a bonus.
The wind was ripping out to left today, but he really nutted that ball. I was a beautiful thing to behold. I reckon he'll enjoy hitting in Fenway if he continues to display that ability to drive the ball the other way when LHP attack him on the outside half.
I don't disagree with your point that JBJ doesn't have to hit better than Nava to be worth more than him, but over a two week stretch I would think a hot hitter would be a lot more valuable than a gold glove LF. Just not enough chances for a great run-saving play, especially in Fenway, where Nava has more experience with the Monster.
I don't want to sound to down on JBJ, I'd just rather let him build momentum in the minors and break out later in the year. Better than seeing him struggle in the majors at the start of the season, go down, scuffle a bit, get hot, come up, rinse, repeat.
That is probably true but that's a point in Bradley's favor. He is in fact the hottest hitter on the club right now. It's not like Nava et al are seizing their opportunity.
The writing was on the wall for him once they acquired Carp.
Shock averted.
Darren, Jose, Matt(bert) and I decided to take a shot at running our own blog. So we've moved our blogging over to the new place. It's been a while running Sox Therapy, and it's been a great time. But we all felt that we wanted to try having a place that was our own. Thanks to Jim for setting us up with the opportunity to blog here.
The new home is Replacement Level Red Sox - conceived as a sister site to the RLYW, meaning they were nice enough to let us rip off their naming convention. If you didn't see it, I put the CFBPS up there as a first post, we've got spring training reports, we'll be doing regular minor league updates and game threading - the fun of Sox Therapy, in a new, redder, differently url'd home. It's been great writing here, and it'd be great if some of y'all want to check out the new place. Come on by, if you want, maybe.
That's the same for the other 24 players of a mediocre team.
Right now Bradley is the best option in left.
Jackie Bradley
Will Middlebrooks
Mike Napoli
Dustin Pedroia
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jon Lester
Clay Buchholz
John Lackey (yes, I'm curious and hopeful)
Julio Iglesias
Players who make me wish I rooted for another team:
Shane Victorino
Jonny Gomes (worse than ####### Nomar, with his 15 seconds out of the box after every pitch, adjusting all of the parts of him that somehow need adjusting).
The rest...good luck to them, I hope they entertain.
Yeah, but they aren't prospects you can start in AAA.
I agree with Temple, but still I'm pretty excited to see Bradley.
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