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   1. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 13, 2012 at 08:10 PM (#4106245)
I will add that explaining to my mother why I was booing the hell out of Josh Leuke was a lot of fun.
   2. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: April 13, 2012 at 08:15 PM (#4106247)
Did you get keys? Congrats!
   3. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 13, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4106254)
Yeah, I figure they'll change the locks within two weeks
   4. Fancy Pants Handle doesn't need no water Posted: April 13, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4106257)
I will add that explaining to my mother why I was booing the hell out of Josh Leuke was a lot of fun.

I'd boo the inventor of leukemia too! What an ass. Jon Lester should get to hit him in the balls with a fastball!
   5. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: April 13, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4106260)
Extra Bases reports that Lin was scratched from PawSox game. He'll likely be called up for tomorrow!
   6. Textbook Editor Posted: April 13, 2012 at 09:13 PM (#4106269)
Well, I know some folks aren't too pleased with the Red Sox opening day game:

Henry and Werner Skip Liverpool's FA Cup Semifinal

There's a lot of snark in the article between the lines--basically that this is just 1 game out of 162 (even though they mention the 100th anniversary of Fenway celebration).
   7. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 13, 2012 at 10:03 PM (#4106298)
I was talking about that with the guy next to me and wondering what they were going to do. I don't see why they didn't hope on Henry's jet at 7 or so and get to London about 7 or 8 London time. If I were in their shoes I'd be doing that.
   8. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: April 13, 2012 at 10:10 PM (#4106308)
I was at the game, four rows from RF, within heckling distance of Ben Zobrist. It was fun!

Despite my mother’s enthusiasm I felt there was a decided lack of “buzz” around the yard.

I can see this. It wasn't exactly ZOMG OPENING DAY AT FENWAY IS HERE. I'm not sure there was an appreciable difference between today and other regular season games.
   9. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: April 13, 2012 at 10:11 PM (#4106310)
####! Speier quotes unnamed source "with knowledge of the situation" who says it's a subluxation/dislocation. Out 6-8 weeks if it is. If it doesn't respond to rest & rehab, then surgery. Out for season. This sucks.
   10. Darren Posted: April 13, 2012 at 10:14 PM (#4106312)
My wife diagnosed it over the radio, which I thought was pretty good.
   11. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: April 13, 2012 at 10:18 PM (#4106317)
My wife diagnosed it over the radio, which I thought was pretty good.


Awesome. She's like a radio psychic.
   12. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 13, 2012 at 10:23 PM (#4106320)
Be interesting to see if the new medical staff gets this right. Basically this is the Jeter/Huckaby injury.
   13. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: April 13, 2012 at 10:24 PM (#4106322)
It is equally clear that for a great player Adrian Gonzalez does not energize the fans.
Obviously this is armchair fan psychology, but Gonzalez has been on the team for one season, which ended under terrible circumstances. There's not necessarily a clear line to be drawn, but we all know what happens when a great player is on a team which craps the bed at the biggest moment.
   14. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: April 13, 2012 at 10:25 PM (#4106324)
Be interesting to see if the new medical staff gets this right. Basically this is the Jeter/Huckaby injury.


Jeter came back and played 119 games says Speier. Out on Mar 31 back on May 13.
   15. villageidiom Posted: April 13, 2012 at 11:39 PM (#4106383)
I was at the game as well. Excitement grew throughout, especially around Beckett. What made things quiet down in the middle was Ellsbury's injury.

Banner on the front of Popeye's on the way to the game: 4 OUT OF 5 PITCHERS PREFER OUR CHICKEN!
   16. Dan Posted: April 13, 2012 at 11:55 PM (#4106390)
Jeter/Huckaby was the first thing that came to mind when I saw it happen. For some reason I had thought Jeter suffered a separated shoulder rather than a dislocation or subluxation though.
   17. Dan Posted: April 13, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4106391)
Banner on the front of Popeye's on the way to the game: 4 OUT OF 5 PITCHERS PREFER OUR CHICKEN!


That doesn't seem like a good promotion to me, but what do I know?

"Come eat the chicken blamed for the historic collapse last season of your favorite team!!!"
   18. Dan Posted: April 13, 2012 at 11:58 PM (#4106392)
I would also imagine that the Ellsbury injury ends any chance of the Sox extending him before he hits FA. He'll probably still be looking for something like Beltran money with Boras being his agent, but this injury just adds to his apparent fragility, even if it was (yet another) freak collision that caused it.
   19. Dan Posted: April 14, 2012 at 12:03 AM (#4106395)
Also, what the hell gives with the offense? The 12 spot was nice and all, but it was largely based on crazy good BABIP luck. This team still has fewer total home runs than George Kottaras has this season as a backup catcher.
   20. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 14, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4106405)
Off the cuff the market for Hamilton should give us a sense of the market for Ellsbury a year from now. Ellsbury doesn't have Hamiltons track record but if he can come back and be a star for a year and a half he would be a reasonable comp I think.
   21. Dan Posted: April 14, 2012 at 01:14 AM (#4106413)
Thing is, with the right shoulder injury, he's likely to have a reduction in his power even if he is able to come back in a reasonable amount of time, meaning it's going to look like his 2011 is an aberration when it's going to at least partially be due to this injury. IANAD, but my understanding is that a shoulder dislocation like this is likely to cause significant damage to the labrum as well. So even after rehab, if his shoulder still isn't feeling stable, he could be looking at going under the knife with a similar time table to Kalish's return (5-6 more months of rehab POST surgery). Kalish's injury was to his throwing shoulder, which makes the rehab a bit tougher, but it's still a pretty similar situation if Ellsbury does indeed end up needing surgery.

Hopefully it's just more mild dislocation and the rest and rehab will get him back good to go in ~6 weeks. But I'm not holding my breath.
   22. Dan Posted: April 14, 2012 at 03:30 AM (#4106435)
There are 14 players in MLB that currently each individually have more home runs than the Boston Red Sox in 2012.
   23. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 14, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4106543)
The Sox need a left-handed OF bat. Darnell McDonald, one good game yesterday notwithstanding, can't be a regular starter against RHP. It's possible Lars Anderson could be that guy - his first week in Pawtucket suggests that rather he's still Lars Anderson - but I don't see any other options in the organization. Josh Kroeger, I guess. Probably Cherington needs to make a trade.

I'll be annoyed if all they do is call up Lin and play McDonald every day. I'd be pretty surprised if Valentine would be ok with that.
   24. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 14, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4106545)
Ellsbury on the twitters (via SoSH):
Thx for all the well wishes. Subluxed my right shoulder in yesterday's game. No timetable set, working hard to get back as soon as possible.
   25. Dan Posted: April 14, 2012 at 11:59 AM (#4106552)
Serious question: what about Abreu? He'd be a decent bat to platoon with DMac in LF for the time being, and you could keep him as a LHH bench bat once Crawford and Ellsbury are healthy. I doubt it would take anything beyond assuming some salary to get him from the Angels.
   26. Nasty Nate Posted: April 14, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4106562)
Would the Angels be willing to help the Sox (even if it also helped them)?
   27. Dale Sams Posted: April 14, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4106564)
It would behoove Ells at this point to call up the brass and say "Hey you know that 4/56* you wanted me to sign? Make it 5/60 and I'll sign today"

*My WAG.

Dan, wouldn't power come more from Ells left shoulder? With the right shoulder stabilizing the swing?
   28. Dan Posted: April 14, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4106567)
Recovery from his right shoulder labrum issues seemed to hurt Gonzalez's power last year for long stretches, and at the end of 2010 before he got it surgically repaired.
   29. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 14, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4106572)
I thought the Abreu issue was that he wanted to be a regular and the Angels only had a part-time job for him. Trading for him to be a pinch-hitter for five months seems like a pretty big risk. (And a lot of money, probably.)

We don't know the kind or extent of damage to Ellsbury's shoulder. Jeter was pretty much fine after six weeks, other players have missed a whole season, others have returned in two months but faced lingering effects. Ellsbury will probably be like one of those three types, and we don't really know at all which one.
   30. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: April 14, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4106702)
It was nice to listen to this game on a relatively lazy Friday at the office. I was surprised that WTIC didn't stay with Rush Limbaugh and broadcast an afternoon game. They didn't do the opening ceremonies like WVEI did, but I switched over to them once the game started. I'm not sure why. Maybe I wanted to here ads for businesses closer to me than Springfield.

How did Beckett look? I can't trust Castiglione to be my eyes.
   31. Dan Posted: April 14, 2012 at 07:14 PM (#4106723)
The Rays bullpen has not impressed so far this series.
   32. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 14, 2012 at 07:16 PM (#4106724)
He was good but not dominant I thought. There were at least two innings where a diving catch started the inning. My seats are on the first base line do I'm not the best judge of pitch movement but it seemed the cut fastball was a good pitch for him if the radar gun can be trusted. I liked that he pounded the strike zone though. It was kind of the Verlander thing, if they aren't threatening, keep it in reserve.
   33. Dan Posted: April 14, 2012 at 07:22 PM (#4106727)
Aceves looks good. Still throwing heat, but actually locating it now.
   34. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 14, 2012 at 07:31 PM (#4106729)
How did Morales look? I was only listening on the radio, but Castig and O'Brien sounded very impressed, and the results were good. Morales/Aceves could be a pretty solid back of the bullpen.

And apparently that's where the homers were.

   35. Dan Posted: April 14, 2012 at 07:38 PM (#4106734)
Morales looked like a left-handed version of this good version of Aceves.
   36. Dan Posted: April 14, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4106740)
LH Lowrie almost just hit a home run off of Zambrano, really only didn't go out due to the deep power alleys at Marlins Park. Probably would've been a homer almost anywhere else.

Quite glad they traded him away for a reliever who looks to be completely useless.
   37. Chip Posted: April 14, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4106741)
Morales was dominant in his inning.
   38. Nasty Nate Posted: April 14, 2012 at 08:48 PM (#4106756)
Yeah Morales was throwing gas.

It seemed like Aceves came in with little to no warming in the bullpen.
   39. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 15, 2012 at 10:21 AM (#4106897)
Per Speier the Sox have DFAd Exposito and Bowden. Expo is no biggie but Bowden could be a mistake. Not sure how it makes sense to let Bowden go but keep Thomas on the 40 man. Repko and Spears called up with Repko in today's starting lineup.
   40. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 15, 2012 at 10:27 AM (#4106902)
I don't get keeping Thomas over Bowden either, but I wouldn't be shocked if Bowden makes it through waivers. Not too many clubs have room on their 40-man in mid-April, and Bowden's upside is pretty limited. If they lose him, though, I'll be a touch annoyed.

I'm more annoyed about Nate Spears, though. I don't think that he's the wrong call, necessarily, but the fact that Nate Spears makes sense as a call-up speaks to what a poor job Cherington did of fitting his depth acquisitions to the existing roster. The Sox are calling up a utility man as a lefty outfield bat. Why do we have four right-handed depth outfielders and no lefties?
   41. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 15, 2012 at 10:45 AM (#4106915)
I'm more annoyed about Nate Spears, though. I don't think that he's the wrong call, necessarily, but the fact that Nate Spears makes sense as a call-up speaks to what a poor job Cherington did of fitting his depth acquisitions to the existing roster. The Sox are calling up a utility man as a lefty outfield bat. Why do we have four right-handed depth outfielders and no lefties?


I agree with all of that but let me play Devil's advocate for a minute. As the off-season began I think the Sox had a reasonable expectation of Crawford and maybe Kalish being ready at the start or soon after. They've begun working Anderson as an outfielder and a month from now he would probably be the guy called up as a LHB outfielder. Meanwhile, there was some crap luck on the injury front (use luck as literally as you desire) with setbacks for Crawford and Kalish and now this thing with Ellsbury. I also think they DID address the LHB outfielder situation with Kroeger but just got it wrong.

The other thing is tht the Sox could justifiably have argued at the sort of the off-season that LHB outfield was not a place to spend resources. With the entire outfield lefty plus Kalish it should not have been a major priority.
   42. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: April 15, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4106940)
the fact that Nate Spears makes sense as a call-up speaks to what a poor job Cherington did of fitting his depth acquisitions to the existing roster


I don't think this is right. The Sox acquired Sweeney, Ross, Repko and Kroeger for depth. The existing roster had McDonald, Ellsbury and Crawford expected back to start the year or soon after. They had Lin in the minors for a defensive backup. How many more OFs did they need to acquire? They lost Drew and replaced him with Sweeney.

Edit: Forgot about Kalish. But he went down in November. Crawford went down in March. What kind of replacement could they have gotten for him then?
   43. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 15, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4106946)
Crawford had surgery in January or so. Counting on an easy recovery from wrist surgery (or, for Kalish, from shoulder surgery) seems wishful to me.
The Sox acquired Sweeney, Ross, Repko and Kroeger for depth. The existing roster had McDonald, Ellsbury and Crawford expected back to start the year or soon after.
Sweeney and Ross are the right fielder, they're not depth. Repko, McDonald, Kroeger, Lin, and Linares are the depth. I guess the point here is that Kroeger should be the lefty, and Cherington happened to pick up the wrong lefty.

The issue for me is that this roster needed a lefty bat from the beginning - even with a complete OF, they needed someone better than Punto or Salty to pinch-hit. (I was posting about this at the end of spring.) The fact that the Sox now also need this lefty bat to play regularly in the OF is just an extra dollop of annoyance on top of the existing, annoying problem.
   44. Dan Posted: April 15, 2012 at 12:58 PM (#4106994)
I'll be kind of sad if they lose Bowden on waivers. I think he's more useful than Thomas or possibly Albers. Honestly I even like him more than Atchison, but I've gotta say Atchison's performance in Toronto was pretty impressive so he's definitely earned more chances. I mean Albers hasn't pitched in like a week; obviously Valentine doesn't think he's worth a #### either. On the flip side, Albers was amazing for 4 months last season, only undone by a beyond miserable end to the season. If he can recapture any semblance of that form, he could be quite useful.
   45. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: April 15, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4107012)
Sweeney and Ross are the right fielder, they're not depth.


Isn't that just how we were interpreting it around here? I don't remember the Sox coming out and saying it would be a platoon. I thought that what they said was that Sweeney was the RF.

I think their pinch hitter is Lars. I don't think he'll make it in the OF, but if he does, he'd be an asset.
   46. Dan Posted: April 15, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4107383)
Two guys the Sox should target, both on the A's: Brandon Allen and Coco Crisp. Crisp could start in Cf till Ellsbury is back and bring a legitimate CF glove, something sorely needed in the short term. And Allen could be the lefty bench bat this team needs anyway, and platoon with DMac in LF for the short term.
   47. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 16, 2012 at 10:16 AM (#4107581)
McDonald's batting 9th today against a tough righty. I would have liked to see Spears in there - if Spears isn't going to start today, then the Sox need to get someone better for that roster slot.
   48. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 16, 2012 at 10:38 AM (#4107596)
I'll be kind of sad if they lose Bowden on waivers. I think he's more useful than Thomas or possibly Albers. Honestly I even like him more than Atchison, but I've gotta say Atchison's performance in Toronto was pretty impressive so he's definitely earned more chances. I mean Albers hasn't pitched in like a week; obviously Valentine doesn't think he's worth a #### either. On the flip side, Albers was amazing for 4 months last season, only undone by a beyond miserable end to the season. If he can recapture any semblance of that form, he could be quite useful.


The bullpen is starting to shake out a bit. Just based on usage I think we can say with some confidence that;

Trusted with important innings - Aceves, Morales, Padilla

Trusted if needed - Atchison

Not trusted - Albers, Melancon

Not exactly sure where Justin Thomas slots. I guess he is "more trusted than Michael Bowden."
   49. Dan Posted: April 16, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4107966)
I'm done defending Valentine. Leaving a clearly gassed Bard in to walk the bases loaded and then walk in a run in a scoreless game was indefensible. I hope Valentine gets fired by Memorial Day.
   50. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: April 16, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4108014)
That was just a strange game. Many strikes by Bard called balls, then Rodney gets many strike calls on balls that were clearly outside. And a called 3rd strike to end the game on a pitch that was 4 inches outside.
   51. Dan Posted: April 16, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4108027)
Robo umps. Now. Bad umpiring is ruining this sport.

Ross's "strikeout"
   52. Dale Sams Posted: April 16, 2012 at 03:59 PM (#4108113)
I know it's not easy to rate managers actual effect, but so far we have on a scale from 1-10.

Says stupid things:

Tito: 0. Never. a players manager. I don't think I ever heard him say something stupid about his players one time. Maybe he got annoyed when called out on a mistake. So bump it up to a 1.

Valentine: 8. Does own up to mistakes at least. So far, but owning up is going to get old at this rate.

Bullpen misuse:

Tito: 7. Chased wins, had a slow hook.

Valentine: 8. Not even Tito would have let Bard walk Longoria. There's character building, and there's letting a gassed pitcher throw.

Pinch-running acumen:

Tito: 5. Tito got burnt more often then not.

Valentine: 6. Does the same things but they've paid off, luck bumps it up one point.

Good use of 'small-ball':

Tito: 3

Valentine: 5 (so far) The very fact that Valentine might put on a squeeze play is an advantage over knowing that Tito won't 99.9999% of the time.


That's just a SSS off the cuff/pissed at Bobby rant. Take it for what it's worth.
   53. Dan Posted: April 16, 2012 at 06:17 PM (#4108263)
espn: Since 2009, Larry Vanover has called strikes on 36% of takes with 2 outs in the 9th inning, 2nd highest of any ump


Vanover cares more about leaving the park than getting calls right or the integrity of the game. Good to know.

Vanover called strikes on 12 balls out of the strike zone all day. 4 of those were with Ross at the plate.
   54. Baldrick Posted: April 16, 2012 at 06:46 PM (#4108292)
That was a preposterous at bat.

I will say that once it became clear that 4-8 inches off the plate counted as a strike at least half the time, Ross really needed to start swinging. He could easily be forgiven, though, given that some of them WERE called correctly - and they were all basically the same pitch.

What a stupid way to end a game.
   55. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: April 16, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4108333)
How much do teams scout umpires? The data is now readily available to know what each umpire's "sweet spots" in the strike zone are. If I was a team, I'd be hiring statisticians and programmers to work on just this issue.
   56. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: April 16, 2012 at 07:54 PM (#4108371)
McDonald's batting 9th today against a tough righty.


McDonald finally made the cutoff for Similarity Scores on bb-ref. His closest comp is Billy McMillon. He'd be more useful in the days when teams had a bigger bench.
   57. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: April 16, 2012 at 08:02 PM (#4108382)
I will say that once it became clear that 4-8 inches off the plate counted as a strike at least half the time, Ross really needed to start swinging.


But you can't hit the pitch that's that far off the plate with any authority. There wasn't a single pitch in the at bat that was a clear strike. Pitch #4 was borderline. 8 inches is a good deal in the other batter's box. You just can't even hope to hit that.
   58. Joel W Posted: April 16, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4108576)
@52,

A to the first, we have no evidence it was productive to act that way as a manger, and also have evidence that it hurt them last year. As I said in game chatter, today's Bard slow hook was a preposterous thing to have done, but it's actually the first such instance we've had with Bobby V I think. Indeed, he's had some very quick hooks, especially with relievers, that I really liked. Disaster today, I still suspect he's much better than Tito.
   59. Joel W Posted: April 17, 2012 at 12:03 AM (#4108578)
Following up, here are the quotes about today from the relevant parties:

"Mac came out and said, `Do you want this guy?' I wanted him," said Bard, a converted reliever making his second major-league start. "In hindsight, probably I was tired."


And also:

The loss was Bobby Valentine's first at Fenway Park as Boston's manager. Fans booed when he went back to the dugout after lifting Bard for Justin Thomas following the run-scoring walk. Bard also walked the previous batter, Carlos Pena, on four pitches.

"It was the wrong decision, obviously," Valentine said. "I wanted to let him know right there that I thought he could get himself out of a jam."


More quotes here: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2012/04/bard_tries_to_g.html

It was a dumb stupid thing to have done, but Bard is just learning how to be a starter. I think it's too soon to condemn the manager based on this.

In related news, Curt Schilling continues to do everything he can to make me loathe him.
   60. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: April 17, 2012 at 03:04 AM (#4108630)
I felt sick watching the replay of the slow hook - live I would have positively gone stupid
   61. Dave Cyprian Posted: April 17, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4108900)
Hijack. Where is the Boston news-blog that used to be at the top of Sox Therapy? FREE THE NEWSBLOG!
   62. Dale Sams Posted: April 17, 2012 at 02:19 PM (#4108995)
"Mac came out and said, `Do you want this guy?' I wanted him," said Bard, a converted reliever making his second major-league start. "In hindsight, probably I was tired


(And I bang my head on a table)

This isn't a frigging movie!!! It's someone's ####### responsibility to put away the macho ######## and realize we're dealing not just with yesterday's game, but also with a TIRED PITCHER who weighs about 150 pounds wet, who is at a career high pitch count, and who we hope to have a long successful career.

As soon as he walks the 9 guy on 5 balls you get someone up and in the game as soon as possible. You don't ask a stupid loaded question like "Do you want this guy?" Give me a ####### break. It's 2012 people!!
   63. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 17, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4109044)
This is from yesterday, but I'd missed it. There's good news on Ellsbury / a new opportunity for ######### for the medical staff. Speier says no surgery for Ellsbury.
   64. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: April 17, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4109079)
That would be some welcome good news, assuming it doesn't mean he'll wind up never healing and needing surgery anyway.
   65. Dan Posted: April 17, 2012 at 10:19 PM (#4109314)
Quite glad they traded him away for a reliever who looks to be completely useless.


Man IM STILL LOVING THAT LOWRIE AND WEILAND FOR MELANCON TRADE! Good job, boys!
   66. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 17, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4109333)
Melancon sucks but so do Lowrie and Weiland.

Having said that if anyone has any reason for me to believe that this is anything other than a .500 team i'm all for it.
   67. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: April 17, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4109334)
Is Melancon hurt, or just suffering from a terrible run of luck where every not-great pitch gets crushed or what? Because there's no way that he has suddenly turned into a pitcher who allowed 5 HR all of last season into one who allowed 5 HR in April just on talent.
   68. Dale Sams Posted: April 17, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4109336)
The HRs are unusual yes, but he had an 80% save rate for the ASTROS. It was stupid to trade an everyday player and a starter for that.*

*Acknowledging that Lowrie would be utility/stop-gap here and Weiland would be the 8th starter.
   69. Dan Posted: April 17, 2012 at 11:43 PM (#4109350)
Here's the other thing: Weiland was great in his first inning or two in most of his starts last year. There was every reason to believe that he was an equivalent or better reliever than Melancon anyway, before accountign for throwing away Lowrie in the process.
   70. Dan Posted: April 18, 2012 at 12:18 AM (#4109363)
Reddick just knocked in the go-ahead run in the 8th inning with his 2nd double of the night in Anaheim. Now hitting .286 with 4 doubles and 1 HR so far this season. He also leads all MLB OFers with 4 assists.
   71. Dale Sams Posted: April 18, 2012 at 01:02 AM (#4109373)
We did get Sweeney. That helps.
   72. Dan Posted: April 18, 2012 at 01:06 AM (#4109374)
Yes, Sweeney may be the saving grace of that trade.

No such bright side to the Melancon trade.
   73. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 18, 2012 at 10:31 AM (#4109532)
Reddick's still in the running for the DiSarcina award, though.

The Sox OF is an interesting situation - Crawford played a full game in extended spring, and he should begin a rehab assignment next week. That gives the Sox, even in a best case scenario, about 15 games remaining with Ross-Sweeney-McDonald-Repko as their outfield. That's 15 more games with at least one of Jason Repko or Darnell McDonald starting in the outfield. I think that's too many. Is it really going to cost that much in talent or money to snag someone's better-than-Repko 5th OF? Given how low the cost should be, I think a move is justified.

I know the Sox and Valentine talked about how much they liked Repko and McDonald in spring, so if they continue to believe in them, they should continue to run them out there. My impression is that they shouldn't believe in either McDonald or Repko, and so they should make a trade.
   74. Nasty Nate Posted: April 18, 2012 at 10:33 AM (#4109535)
The HRs are unusual yes, but he had an 80% save rate for the ASTROS.


Why is Astros emphasized? Is it easier to have a higher save rate for a bad team?
   75. Answer Guy Posted: April 18, 2012 at 10:43 AM (#4109550)
Less pressure against generally inferior teams with inferior lineups.
   76. Nasty Nate Posted: April 18, 2012 at 10:46 AM (#4109555)
If you are on a bad team, you play generally superior teams with superior lineups because you don't play yourself.
   77. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 18, 2012 at 10:47 AM (#4109556)
Melancon had 25 save opportunities last year. One save is a difference of 4 percentage points. There's way, way too much noise in that statistic to have any utility.

If you want to talk about how well Melancon pitched in leveraged situations, we have WPA for that. He was at +1.45, which is not great but solidly above average. (Which is all anyone expected Melancon to be.)

Trading for a pitcher who turns out to be bad is a bad thing, I will be happy to blame Cherington and the Red Sox baseball ops people if Melancon remains ineffective. I'm just saying Melancon's save percentage serves as no kind of evidence that he was going to be bad.
   78. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: April 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4109585)
Probably shouldn't put much meaning in this, but I listened to a Bill Simmons podcast about a week ago. He brought up the idea that before his fantasy draft he spoke to someone he knows connected to the Red Sox (who knows what that means), and this guy told him to stay away from Melancon, even as an option for saves in the likely case Bailey got hurt, because Boston management had quickly come to the conclusion he was not meant for the Boston market. Simmons implied strongly that they didn't think he could handle Boston at all.
   79. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 18, 2012 at 11:29 AM (#4109588)
Simmons sure does get a lot of inside information from anonymous sources which confirm things he already believes.

I should say, the Sox usage of Melancon suggests pretty strongly that they started to regret the trade in March. I'm skeptical it's a "can't handle Boston" thing - dude was shaky in spring too, did the fake Fenway atmosphere in meaningless games overwhelm him?
   80. Dale Sams Posted: April 18, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4109869)
, did the fake Fenway atmosphere in meaningless games overwhelm him?


Heh. Isn't that why they built the replica Fenway? To see if peeps can handle it? Maybe they should seed the crowd with hecklers too.

And I sure wish Simmons had told me before I drafted Melancon. Fortunatly I benched him for his second to last appearance and dropped him before last night.
   81. Dale Sams Posted: April 18, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4109873)
the DiSarcina award


Lowrie has 6 in 25 PAs though. Good for Jed.

That 'web gem' was laughable though. He didn't dive for it, he just fell over.
   82. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 18, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4109883)

That 'web gem' was laughable though. He didn't dive for it, he just fell over


If Lowrie fell over then got up without the aid of a stretcher that alone deserves a web gem.
   83. Answer Guy Posted: April 18, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4109941)
#76...I'd expect that to be true for starting pitchers but not for designated closers. I would expect fewer save opportunities against good teams to exist for closers for bad teams.
   84. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 18, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4109948)
#76...I'd expect that to be true for starting pitchers but not for designated closers. I would expect fewer save opportunities against good teams to exist for closers for bad teams.


Two things;

1. A guy like Melancon never got to close against the Astros last year. So that's one less bad team he is going to face.

2. When a bad team beats a good team, it is likely to be in a close game so the save chance is going to be there.
   85. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 18, 2012 at 05:13 PM (#4109958)
With a sample of 25 and a purely binary measurement, randomness is going to overwhelm any of the effects theorized here.

Save % is a bad stat. And for any purpose you might want to use it, WPA is clearly superior.

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