The two potential problems are Crawford and Dice. They won't be able to easily demote these guys but they could quite possibly take playing time away from a more productive player. It would be nice if they could package them in a deal to someone - I wonder how much cash would have to go with that? $40M?

This isn't paving new ground but I imagine Kalish is sent back down, they try to pass Darnell through waivers and package some combination of Sweeney/Pods/Nava/RP/Catcher/6th starter and other redundant parts (Dice, maybe?) in a trade(s) for good prospects. This backfills the future and provides both 40 and 25 man relief this year.

I really don't want to trade anyone away (anyone else, after Youkilis), certainly not without getting a significant return (again). Depth is good, especially when you're competing for the playoffs.

I don't know what to expect from Crawford, but he was so good before 2011 that I don't think it's justified to presume he's currently worse than Daniel Nava or Cody Ross.

In theory I agree with your point about not wanting to trade anyone, however they are going to soon be in a position where they won't have enough options to stash useful players, or those options will make the Major League team worse for the sake of redundancy.

There is also a human element to this. Nava is what, 28 or 30? He has demonstrated that he deserves a chance to earn a return on the risk capital he has invested in his baseball career. The decent thing would to give him that chance or trade him to someone who will - and as it turns out the decent thing is probably the smart thing.

Crawford has a chance to be an all-star level outfielder again, but he also has a chance to worse than Cody Ross and the 10 or 15 other outfielders like Ross that are available every year. With the glut of outfielders coming through the farm system I have a hard time seeing Crawford as anything but an expensive, less useful cork in that development process over the next 5 .5 years.

I think Crawford is a more difficult call than Daisuke. If the Sox have five pitchers better than Daisuke then pitch them, he is probably gone at the end of the year anyway.

The outfield is a bit more difficult. Ellsbury is a given and I think Ross/Sweeney is our best right fielder right now. I'm more confident on Crawford than most but that leaves the difficult question of Kalish or Nava. My feeling is that Ryan Kalish; today, is not an upgrade over Sweeney/Ross so sending him down is probably the best call.

This gets to the larger issue, the idea that the sox have a "surplus" on the horizon is misguided in my opinion. I'd be shocked if health and effectiveness don't set the Sox up in a way that they can manage the roster. This is especially true on the mound. I think counting on Buchholz anytime soon is mistake, the descriptions of the illness are frightening. Would anyone be shocked to hear that Lester has a dead arm or something of that nature?

Tl;dr. I think the pitching will work itself out and unles Kalish truly establishes himself over the next month (and be should be given every chance) the 2012 Sox are better off with Sweeney/Ross than Kalish in right.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I feel very good about putting Nava in RF. He's shown an excellent arm and it looks like the rest of his fielding has improved greatly since 2010. With that being the case, I'd solve the logjam (should it occur) by dealing Ross. He's a good player with a solid track record, post-season bona fides, and he's cheap. I'm thinking that a team in need of an OF would be willing to give up something shiny for him. You could do the same with Sweeny if there are any takers.

The other move I'd hope to make is a deal of Albers to a team in need of relief. He had a nice little run last year and still has nice looking numbers this year. If someone believes he can be a good middle/setup man, please deal him.

It would seem a team like the Phillies would kill for our OF depth at the moment. I'm not saying they'd take on Crawford (although who knows, Amaro seems only to respond to big-money situations), but you'd think they could take on Ross if he could play LF. And Matsusaka would possibly be an upgrade for their rotation they way it is now. And their bullpen's a mess, so depth there could be dealt... Now if only they were willing to trade, say, Hamels...

[/fantasy]

The Sox can obviously bump Aaron Cook

Not without a fight!

I'd solve the logjam (should it occur) by dealing Ross

That's an interesting idea - one I hadn't considered until I read it, above, a minute ago. If you are a contender looking for an outfield bat, Ross is a pretty attractive option. One year deal, cheap, power. I think I'd rather have Sweeney than Ross for the next few years; you're not going to trade Ellsbury or Kalish; Nava is simply too valuable (he costs nothing, the man knows how to hit, and his defense looks at least good enough). McDonald is whatever - he's not worth much, and you won't get anything for him.

If Matsuzaka looks like he's got anything in the tank, and somebody was willing to take on his salary, I'd pack his bags for him. I'd much rather have Morales starting games for the next half season than Matsuzaka, right?

With Crawford, Ellsbury, and Kalish all LHH, wouldn't it be malpractice to not have a strong righty platoon bat in the outfield corps? Seems like you'd want to keep Ross under those circumstances, and that Sweeney is the most likely trade bait. Keep Lillibridge around as the extra righty bat, especially because (assuming he can play SS occasionally) he allows you to throw in Punto to any trade. That also makes it easier to keep Nava as a 5th outfielder.

You see if you can get McDonald past waivers and back to Pawtucket, as has been said. Podsednik, meanwhile, has options, doesn't he, because he was signed to a minor league deal? So you can stash him back with the Pawsox as well in case the plague again wipes out your entire big club outfield roster.

Very soon, this will be 23 of the 25

Salty /Shoppy (C), Gonzalez 1st, Pedroia 2nd, Aviles SS, Middlebrooks 3rd, Crawford LF, Ellsbury CF, Ortiz DH

Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Matsuzaka, Doubront

Aceves, Padilla, Atchison, Miller, Morales, Melancon, Albers

Punto UT, Lillibridge UT

They need to make a RF out of 1 or 2 of these, probably Ross/Nava

Outfield Logjam - Ross, Sweeney, Nava, McDonald, Podsednik, Kalish

This is the Calvary in AAA/DL, quite likely Bailey and Bard come up at some point

Bailey, Bard, Cook, Hill, Bowden, Mortensen

They are going to have a log-jam in relief pitching, possibly starting pitching, and the outfield that will have to be dealt with, and they probably have a catcher and good fielding UT who could be available at the right price.

I predict they package in two different trades: Sweeney, Salty, Matsuzaka, Podsenik, Albers, Atchison, Bowden and maybe Miller. These are all valuable rentals to a potential contender and getting rid of them solve in various ways problems that the Sox currently have. The outfeilders are covered by the stock in AAA and the fact that the sox are carrying 4 OF and a UT who can cover the outfield. Lavarnway covers Salty and adds walks to the line-up, Dice helps with the salary cap, and Albers/Atch are both sell-high guys.

Of note to the current discussion: http://perfecthealthdiet.com/2010/10/are-the-boston-red-sox-malnourished/ That article is from 2010. It draws a lot of conclusions from advice given to non-athletes, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Red Sox had this stuff all wrong.

A quarter of the diet is toxic grains and the protein may be derived from toxic legumes.

"Toxic grains"? That article may well be right that there's not enough protein (if the assumption that she's recommending the same diet, which seems questionable), but a blanket statement that grains are "toxic" makes me a lot more skeptical of that link than whatever their dietician is doing.

Yeah, a lot of the paleo diet advocates use ridiculous language like that when they talk about grains. It's also not an unfounded claim http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20798415 "Edward Mellanby used the experimental method to investigate medical problems. In 1918, working at King's College for Women, London, he provided conclusive evidence that rickets is a dietary deficiency disease due to lack of a fat-soluble vitamin [D]. In Sheffield he demonstrated that cereals, in an unbalanced diet, produced rickets due to the phytic acid content reducing the availability of calcium."

I didn't want to derail this convo, or even really endorse that article in full, just wanted to toss it out there.

I'd give Cook a start against the Yankees, before the AS break. With all the extra starters and time off upcoming, why not? If he crashes early, bring in DiceK or even Buchholz.

edit///forgot Buchholz was on the DL. So, bring in anyone.

SSS caveats, but it looks like Nava can't hit LHP or away from Fenway.

He's a middle class man's Frank Catalanotto?

Darnell DFA.

0-5 in extras. Good luck MacDime.

I don't see Nava's defense sufficing in Fenway's RF.

Nava's defense, especially his arm, look fine in RF for the Sox. It's a big field but:

--He's looked great out there.
--They only play 1/2 their games in Fenway.
--They've been willing to try AGonz out there.
--Cody Ross does not look any better than him.

He'll be fine.

--He's looked great out there.

We must be watching two different players, because his defense has seemed awful to me.

This is the Calvary in AAA/DL, quite likely Bailey and Bard come up at some point

Bailey, Bard, Cook, Hill, Bowden, Mortensen

1) "Cavalry"?

2) Hill is on the DL as of recently. I don't know if there have been updates in the last 1-2 weeks but he saw Dr. Andrews earlier this month.

3) Bowden belongs to Theo now.

4) I like Clay Mortensen, but... really?

EDIT: On Mortensen: Interesting piece where he discusses his repertoire: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/clayton-mortensen-four-pitches-hot-hand/

So now Middlebrooks has reinjured his hamstring. Good thing we were so quick to dump Youkilis, and now the third base options are Punto and Lillibridge. Just awesome planning there, Ben.

Nava's looked broadly competent, but not fast and not quick. You play Adrian Gonzalez is RF when your options are Darnell McDonald or Che-Hsuan Lin and you think Adrian Gonzalez is a good bet to hit like Adrian Gonzalez should. I don't think you play Daniel Nava in RF when you have a possible Kalish/Ross platoon.

(Thoughts on Middlebrooks and 3B to follow in the trading thread.)

At what point do we legitimately panic that our favorite team is paying $154M for Casey Kotchman?

Once that becomes true.

Casey Kotchman 2012 ZiPS projection in Tropicana Field: .272/.339/.395

Adrian Gonzalez 2012 with Fenway Park as his home park: .275/.323/.404

You're right, Gonzalez has actually been worse than Kotchman's projection once you account for Parker factors.

I think it's fair to panic about it. I still think is going to turn around, sooner than later, but it's a half season in now and a valid concern.

It's valid to be concerned, but he's not Casey Kotchman over the next seven years.

He's got a hitting streak going though!