That's right, MCOA is now posting on Sox Therapy. Finally some class around here.

I think Delcarmen makes the roster over Byrd.

Best vaguely inappropriate sports-related use of bathos in an online forum eva!

That's right, MCOA is now posting on Sox Therapy. Finally some class around here.

I assume this is MCoA posting as Darren.

Byrd might be the best option for the first round, though if there's ANY assurance that Wake is healthy they should go with him. Not because he's "earned" it or because he's mrsidiom's favorite, but because when he's been healthy he's been great this year. As MCoA points out, currently there's no assurance he's healthy. Fortunately, if they make the ALCS they can rearrange things again should he be ready.

I assume Baldelli, over Drew, starts against Saunders... or Kazmir. Not sure if Los Anaheim will start both.

I believe LA is planning to start Lackey, Kazmir, Weaver, and Saunders. So that could be two starts for Baldelli. Drew's pretty good against lefties, though - career 800 OPS, better over the last couple years. My guess is Drew would start against Saunders but not Kazmir.

And Rocco Baldelli is now playing third base. That's certainly interesting.

It's a ####### circus. You know, people don't have to pay tickets to see these ######## shenanigans. They don't have to watch NESN. They can go to Pawtucket in August and see this lineup against a team that they have a chance against.

And you know, other teams have clinched or have determined they're not going to the playoffs. And yet, they manage to put a ML team on the field. Screw this.

And you know, other teams have clinched or have determined they're not going to the playoffs. And yet, they manage to put a ML team on the field. Screw this.

Uh, did you see the Yankees team that beat the Royals Monday?

I'm rather irritated myself. It's clear that they've been coasting for a while and got away with it because all the teams chasing them went into a tailspin as well.

I think you have to go with Byrd at this point if you're taking 11 guys. In theory he can at least give you 2-3 IP in a pinch and save the pen on a day when someone gets shelled. I'm not sure Wakefield can be that guy and--even if he could--he could probably only pitch once during the series.

Of course, that could then be a strategic thing--put Wake on the ALDS roster, pitch him once, see if he responds well; if he doesn't, then DL him for the rest of the playoffs and have Byrd waiting in the wings to take hims spot on the roster. (It makes sense to try rolling the dice like this in the ALDS, since you do have the out where you could DL Wake and get Byrd to immediately take his place as the long man... In fact, I'd almost be surprised if the Red Sox don't try this--assuming Wakefield bounces back from tonight's start OK.

The more interesting call is Saito over Delcarmen (though you could carry both if you carried 12 pitchers). The problem with Saito (I think) is that it would be rare indeed to see him on back-to-back days, and considering you already have a guy who can't go on back-to-back days in Wagner, having Saito also on the roster could leave you hamstrung in a Game 2 situation if Saito and Wagner both already pitched in Game 1.

Of course, there is the fact Delcarmen's been awful and doesn't seem to get any better, no matter how much rope Tito & Co. give him... I just don't see how they can put him on the roster.

MCoA nailed it, the Sox have been using these games as an audition for the playoffs.
I would prefer a healthy Wake in the long reliever role, but he is not healthy. Bowden and Delcarmen have not pitched well when given the opportunity. That leaves Byrd, who when he is spot on, can give you producutive innings, but if he is a little off, the ball goes a long way. If all goes well, he never pitches or pitches the 9th with a 7 run lead.

If all goes well, he never pitches or pitches the 9th with a 7 run lead deficit.

Uh, did you see the Yankees team that beat the Royals Monday?

Or, for that matter, the Royals team that lost to the Yankees on Monday?

It's a ####### circus. You know, people don't have to pay tickets to see these ######## shenanigans. They don't have to watch NESN. They can go to Pawtucket in August and see this lineup against a team that they have a chance against.

And you know, other teams have clinched or have determined they're not going to the playoffs. And yet, they manage to put a ML team on the field. Screw this.

aww cmon. Its the night after they clinched. They'll play some regulars tomorrow and this weekend. I paid $15 for my ticket tonight and knew what i was getting into (not too long in the cold because Halladay was pitching). If this is the end for him, sad to see Wake go like this, but he'll always have game 5: his Zihuatanejo redemption from a Shawshanked fly ball.

My name is Wakefield - I gotta box full of your toys

This last week has really got me worried about next year's rotation. They have a great top four, but with Wakefield looking close to retirement they don't really have anyone else that should be better than replacement level. Bowden regressing instead of turning into what Masterson was a year ago really hurts. Even if they somehow trade for a bigtime starter without giving up Buchholz, they'll still have no depth.

Maybe I'm just spoiled by the ridiculous depth we looked to have in spring training.

The problem with MCoA's post is there isn't much to argue with, it looks pretty good to me. Watching Lowrie last night I was surprised at how poor his arm was at third. His throws had nothing on them and he looked like he was guiding the ball rather than throwing it. If they really want to try Baldelli at third then I would have him start one of these games this weekend and see what happens.

I can't see how Delcarmen can make the roster at this point, he's just helpless.

The real issue is you have 2 of your 7 reliever slots taken by guys who can't go on back-to-back days (Wagner & Saito). That means one of the other 5, at least, has to be a long man to give you length in the pen, because if those 2 happen to pitch in Game 1 or Game 3, you will be left shorthanded the next day.

I suspect in the next 4 games they're going to pitch Delcarmen at least 2 times and maybe 3, to give him opportunities to straighten himself out. If he pitches well, he'll likely make the roster. If he doesn't, he won't (hopefully).

This last week has really got me worried about next year's rotation. They have a great top four, but with Wakefield looking close to retirement they don't really have anyone else that should be better than replacement level. Bowden regressing instead of turning into what Masterson was a year ago really hurts. Even if they somehow trade for a bigtime starter without giving up Buchholz, they'll still have no depth.

Are you really concerned that they don't have a fifth starter lined up for next year?

Beckett, Lester, Buccholz, Dice-K

Then assorted folks like
Wakefield, Bowden, Tazawa, minor league free agents, major league free agents

A couple of thoughts:
1) there is no doubt, IMO, that the Red Sox will carry a long reliever for the ALDS. If a starter - especially early in the series - is injured or ineffective, the risk of blowing through most of your bullpen in one night is too significant. Frankly, if Lester or Beckett can't get through five innings in games 1 or 2, the Red Sox are going to have bigger problems than Paul Byrd vs. Michael Bowden.
2) In terms of the bench, how many guys in the lineup are ever going to be replaced with a pinch hitter? Assuming the available bench bats are Baldelli, Varitek, Lowrie/Green, Kotchman and Gathright, who in the everyday lineup is going to present a weaker matchup than one of the bench guys? Maybe Baldelli against some righties, but Drew isn't chopped liver against lefties (.827 OPS in 2009, .800 for his career), and Baldelli isn't Pujlos or anything (.792 in 2009, .833 for his career against lefties). We agree Drew is a fine baserunner and defensive player, so except for maybe pinch-hitting for Gonzalez against a touch righty, when (outside of injury) would Baldelli really be the better option? Bottom line: outside of late-inning defensive replacement (maybe for Bay), or pinch running (maybe Gathright for Lowell, Varitek, Ortiz, etc. in the 9th inning, down a run or something), I don't see this as a series-changing decision.
3) Those who say the Red Sox are lucky to be coasting while the competition (TB and TEX) have faded away are missing the point. The Red Sox were coasting, resting guys and auditioning bench and bullpen guys, because TB and TEX faded away. If Texas had kept up the pace, the Red Sox would be making different decisions.

Epstein said a few days ago, explicitly, that they have determined there is no statistical relationship between finishing a season "hot", and post-season success. Being healthy and lined up is far more important that winning 10 of your last 13 games, or winning the division compared to being the wild card. I believe they are correct.

Finally some class around here.

Hey, low class is still class!

-- MWE

other teams have clinched or have determined they're not going to the playoffs.

Most teams give their regulars the next game off following a postseason-clinching, when they have a chance to do so.

-- MWE

In terms of the bench, how many guys in the lineup are ever going to be replaced with a pinch hitter? Assuming the available bench bats are Baldelli, Varitek, Lowrie/Green, Kotchman and Gathright, who in the everyday lineup is going to present a weaker matchup than one of the bench guys? Maybe Baldelli against some righties, but Drew isn't chopped liver against lefties...Bottom line: outside of late-inning defensive replacement (maybe for Bay), or pinch running (maybe Gathright for Lowell, Varitek, Ortiz, etc. in the 9th inning, down a run or something), I don't see this as a series-changing decision.

It probably isn't a series-changing decision but you never know when one might pop up. I can without much difficulty see a scenario where they pinch hit say Baldelli for Gonzalez in the 8th then want the option of pinch hitting for Lowrie in the 10th. That would create a pickle defensively but if you get to that point you have probably reached a desperate situation so you spend an inning or two with an infield of Kotchman-Pedroia-Youkilis-Lowell. With the Sox bullpen arms being largely hard throwers a bad defensive infield may not be as big a problem as it would be earlier in a game.

It's like trying Baldelli at third. I can't imagine a situation where that would come up but better to be overprepared than underprepared.

I suspect in the next 4 games they're going to pitch Delcarmen at least 2 times and maybe 3, to give him opportunities to straighten himself out. If he pitches well, he'll likely make the roster. If he doesn't, he won't (hopefully).

Delcarmen's been utter unrelenting crap since June. Why should the Sox think the next couple of games are going to provide more insight as to what he might provide than the last 4 months of evidence?

He shouldn't be on the postseason roster since he's been been a terrible pitcher for quote some time now.

Delcarmen can give multiple innings, which is a benefit. Of course, of late he's only capable of multiple *crap* innings, but still--in a bullpen where--aside from Okajima and Papelbon--everyone else seems to have problems with closing one inning and starting another one, this might be a small advantage.

Wagner won't ever go more than 1 inning unless you have a 2004 ALCS Game 5-type situation.
Bard they don't seem inclined to stretch more than 1 inning
Saito can, in theory, go 1+ innings, but then you'd lose him for the next day's game except in disaster scenarios
Ramirez has seemed of late to fall apart if brought back for a 2nd inning

This problem isn't insignificant, and (to me) has been the bullpen's biggest construction problem since we traded Masterson--he has real value as a guy who could go 2 or even 3 innings if you really needed him to, and still be able to come back the next day and get you maybe an inning.

I'd be fine with letting Farrell go to Cleveland if we got Masterson back in return. Maybe Farrell+prospect? Pipe dreams, I know...

Now, if Lester, Beckett, Buchholz and Matsusaka all go 6-7 IP per start, the bullpen construction is not a big deal. But 1-2 disaster starts and it all unravels.

Now, if Lester, Beckett, Buchholz and Matsusaka all go 6-7 IP per start, the bullpen construction is not a big deal. But 1-2 disaster starts and it all unravels.

But you can say that of any team in the post-season. Even five innings from the starters allows for a final four (in some order) of Saito, Bard, Wagner, Papelbon on one day and Ramirez, Okajima, Bard, Papelbon the next. With Ramirez, Okajima and Papelbon all capable of more than one inning at a time I don't think it's a big concern thougha long reliever probably is necessary in a just-in-case scenario.

I don't think that Saito and Wagner are going to be restricted from pitching on back-to-back days in the playoffs. Is it really that hard to do, given that before their injuries they both did it all the time?

#25--I can see Saito pitching back-to-back days (he's done it a couple of times in-season, I think).

Wagner... I can't see them doing this, even if Wagner begs, unless it's a disaster scenario. He's not pitched back-to-back since the injury, and I don't see the Red Sox using the playoffs as a testing ground for how effective he'd be in doing so.

Most teams give their regulars the next game off following a postseason-clinching, when they have a chance to do so

Probably because so many of them seem to suddenly come down with "flu-like symptoms."

Wagner... I can't see them doing this, even if Wagner begs, unless it's a disaster scenario. He's not pitched back-to-back since the injury, and I don't see the Red Sox using the playoffs as a testing ground for how effective he'd be in doing so.

This is fair, but as long as Wagner is available the day after pitching in a "disaster scenario", then we don't really need to be too concerned about the roster implications of carrying a pitcher who can't pitch on back-to-back days. If the Sox really need Saito or Wagner, they can use them.

Nick Green for long-reliever?

(W)hat’s wrong with Manny D, anyway? Is he hurt? He’s been terrible.

I saw his agent talk at a SABR meeting in Springfield recently. (For those of you east of Worcester, that's off of the Pike, down I-91 a little ways.) He seems to think it's a mechanical thing; that he's not loading up or rotating back far enough before pitching. I know as much about pitching mechanics as I do about Norwegian folk music, so he could be right or wrong for all I know.

Nick Green for long-reliever?

After watching Dusty Brown blow away Randy Ruiz with a 78 MPH heater last night I think he has to be in the mix.

After watching Dusty Brown blow away Randy Ruiz with a 78 MPH heater last night I think he has to be in the mix.

I wouldn't read too much into that. Ruiz was probably just tired out from all that baserunning earlier in the game.

I wouldn't read too much into that. Ruiz was probably just tired out from all that baserunning earlier in the game.

Ach, what base running. Seemed like all he was doing was following the Adam Lind plan of jogging leisurely around the bases. If anyone was tired it should have been the Red Sox pitchers, backing up third base repeatedly is tiring.

Ruiz is certainly a large man.

Can't believe I missed Dusty Brown pitching!

The Saito/Wagner consecutive days issue is probably somewhat mitigated by the extra off days, so the long reliever is basically just a security blanket/handy mop.

I saw his agent talk at a SABR meeting in Springfield recently. (For those of you east of Worcester, that's off of the Pike, down I-91 a little ways.) He seems to think it's a mechanical thing; that he's not loading up or rotating back far enough before pitching. I know as much about pitching mechanics as I do about Norwegian folk music, so he could be right or wrong for all I know.

His arm action has been noticeably shorter this season which may be leading to (or caused by) not loading up properly.

His agent is giving talks at SABR about his mechanics/ sounds weird.

OF: Bay/Jacoby/Drew/Rocco/Reddick

Why would take F!@#ing Gathright? He's played like 2 games this season, is Tito going to greenlight him in the bottom of the 8th down 1 run pinch running for Papi? I don't think so. I'd rather have Reddick. Better arm, also very good speed, and can accidentally make some contact and put on in the bleachers.

IF:
Papi/Lowell/Youk/Pedroia/Kotchman/V-Mart/Vagitek/A-Gon/ (Green or Jed), the healthier one

Pitchers:
Lester/Beckett/Buch/Daisuke/RamRam/Hideki/Saito/Paps/Bard/Wagner/Byrd/

FWIW, Joey G. is, for his career, something like 8.9 in CF, 16.0 in LF over on Fangraphs.

That's high-quality late inning outfield D. His arm's looked decent to my eyes as well.

It was only a couple of fly balls but watching him last night he took some awful routes to the ball. It was Terrance Long-esque.

Again, I don't think there is a whole lot of difference in Reddick vs. Gathright as the 5th OF:

1) I don't want either of these guys in a game replacing Drew or Ellsbury defensively;
2) I don't want these guys ever pinch hitting for anybody in the lineup;
3) Riddick could pop one out if you need him as an injury replacement; Gathright could act as an excellent pinch-runner in a close game for several of the regulars.

So...
...what skill set are you more likely to need in a short series: somebody who could hit a HR (maybe) as an injury replacement, or a pinch runner in a close game? To me, it clearly the pinch runner (and frankly, Gathright probably has as much chance of getting on base as Reddick, at this point in their careers).

Last question: If Gathright is being considered so strongly for the postseason because of the unique skill set he possesses, then how come they didn;t try to acquire a guy like him earlier this year? There have been way too many times this year where the end of the Red Sox bench has been pathetic (Bailey, Kotsay, Reddick, Van Every, Bates, Carter). Gathright is at least superfast, can play defense, and is cheap. Not much sign he can hit, though...

I don't know that I'd call it pathetic to call up one of your top prospects (Reddick) and give him a chance to get some major league at-bats as the fifth outfielder. It's the lack of infield depth that's been glaring.

Gathright is better for the AL games I think, but if they make the world series, I'd rather have Reddick I think, as having another pinch hitter seems more important.

I'm a huge Red Sox, and I'm rooting for Reddick to become a successful big-leaguer, but if he is the best young position prospect we had in 2009 to help the big-league team this year...then it's a good thing we're really good at developing pitchers. Does anybody think Reddick is likely be as good as (much less better than) either David Murphy or Brandon Moss?

Does anybody think Reddick is likely be as good as (much less better than) either David Murphy or Brandon Moss?

Long term? Hell yeah. His performances are well above what Moss and Murphy did at the same age and levels and it seems that he has more physical gifts (speed, arm, defense) than either of those guys. I'm not anointing him the next Beltran or anything but I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a solid to above average regular.

I don't want either of these guys in a game replacing Drew or Ellsbury defensively

Agreed, but how about Bay? If the Sox are making a defensive substitution in the outfield he's the guy being subbed for.

To me, Reddick looks massively overmatched in the major leagues. He has legit tools - a great arm and a 35-HR swing - but he hasn't yet learned how to hit. He has 17 Ks against two walks in the majors, and he had pitch recognition and contact issues in the minors, too. (On Steve's question, I think Reddick is quite unlikely to have David Murphy's career, but he has a much better chance of being an all-star than Murphy ever did.)

In any case, the 5th OF in a five-game series shouldn't be chosen for his bat, the odds of the Sox needing a third or fourth pinch-hitter in a game are exceedingly low. So, instead, the 5th OF should be a pinch-runner and defensive replacement, and Gathright is clearly better at both.

His agent is giving talks at SABR about his mechanics/ sounds weird.

He was talking about the arbitration process (did a case for another pitcher.) If you have the Bill James book Let's Not Eat The Bones, the process sounds like it's still the same 20 years later.

I think someone asked him what is ailing MDC and he mentioned the mechanics. I don't have a transcript of the meeting.

Lester's performance last night, and his evident full health, is much more important to the Red Sox in the playoffs than any bench player. So just to note that and say, yay, that's good.

Looks like Wagner can go back-to-back days after all (provided he only has to throw a total of 15 pitches).

I think I'd rather see Reddick or Anderson on the playoff roster than Gathright, but the difference between any of them is pretty marginal.

Josh Reddick has some pretty decent wheels (from what I've seen, definitely plus speed) and has shown himself to be competent in the OF. I'm not sure if Gathright is better than Reddick defensively, as Reddick has looked reasonable in all 3 OF spots.

I'd like to see him on the playoff roster as part of his development. He has looked over matched, but he's definitely got some pop. Besides, we can just send Buch up to pinch run again. It didn't work the first time, it has to work the second time!

Gathright can actualy steal bases, though, which is something that you want in a pinch runner. I doubt Reddick is a much better hitter right now either.

If Baldelli can't go (he's having an MRI tomorrow) is the "loser" of Gathright/Reddick the choice or do you take Brian Anderson to have that right-handed "bat" (giving him the benefit of the doubt) instead?

Kilgore reported for Extra Bases this weekend first that Bowden will not travel with the Red Sox to California, then that Wakefield will not make the ALDS roster, so it's expected that Byrd will be the long man.

Benjamin reported today for Extra Bases that Green has still not fully recovered from his back injury. So Lowrie seems more likely there.

Losing Baldelli would be a pretty major blow to the Red Sox bench. Anderson isn't a hitter, and so this would put Francona in a tough situation where he can basically only pinch-hit when he knows the opposing team can't call on a lefty. The choice of Reddick vs. Anderson is one where there isn't a good choice, and ICW's preference for putting Reddick on there as a developmental thing might be as good a reason as any.

Globe: Official Postseason Roster

SP: Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Matsuzaka
RP: Papelbon, Okajima, Bard, Wagner, Ramirez, Saito, Byrd

C: Martinez, Varitek
IF: Youkilis, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Lowell, Kotchman, Lowrie
OF: Bay, Ellsbury, Drew, Anderson, Gathright
DH: Ortiz

The Sox made a last-minute decision not to carry Baldelli, but they hope he'll be available if the club makes the next round.

This roster leaves the Francona with very little offensive flexibility. Drew will start against every LHP. Pinch-hitting for Ellsbury against a lefty probably won't happen. He can pinch-hit for Gonzalez against a righty, but it should be mainly in situations where he's confident the Angels won't be able to (or just won't) go to a lefty. It's just not a good bench.

They could, though, claim Anderson has an injury, DL him (making him ineligible for the rest of the playoffs) and "call up" Baldelli to the active roster at any time (say, just in time for Game 3 against Kazmir).

I'm not saying they would, but the rule changes do now allow for this, and if Baldelli is better by Sunday, it certainly would be an option to consider.

If Baldelli has a good chance to be ready by Sunday, I dont think the Sox would have left him off for games 1 + 2.

The sox dance around and across the line on all transaction and roster-construction rules, but I think cooking up a phony injury for Anderson in the middle of a series would be too bold even for them.

The sox dance around and across the line on all transaction and roster-construction rules, but I think cooking up a phony injury for Anderson in the middle of a series would be too bold even for them.

Especially hard considering Anderson likely won't see any action during the first two games.

No one wants to be the next Mike Andrews -- or the next Charlie Finley.

Especially hard considering Anderson likely won't see any action during the first two games.

the only role he'll have out in Anaheim will be with dinner before the game.

"It's just not a good bench"

I've been saying this for weeks. The only decent spare parts are a .750 OPS slick fielding 1B, this time with a spellable name, and a track star. It's part bad luck, Baldelli and Green have value if they're healthy, part unintended consequence from commitments to aging former stars that have left the roster less flexible

Baldelli and Green have value if they're healthy, part unintended consequence from commitments to aging former stars that have left the roster less flexible

Lowrie >>> Green if both are healthy, IMO. Huge if for Lowrie at this point, obviously, but Green has nothing close to the pedigree or upside of Jed.

I left out Lowrie figuring that if he was healthy Gonzalez wouldn't have been acquired, with the physical issues he's just the best of a bunch of bad options for a backup IF

Not a very good bench overall, but they have a starting quality 1B, a good pinchrunner, and a passable backup C. Would be nice to have Laroche!

Truly annoying thing about Baldelli's unavailability is that he has torched the Angels lefties in his small sample size exposure: 8-16 against the lot, including 3-6 against both Kazmir and Saunders, with a HR off his former teammate.