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1. Hugh Jorgan Posted: June 22, 2009 at 01:57 AM (#3227299)Dice-K...its a mystery, I'm taking a wait and see attitude here.
SS situation is working o.k. right now. Maybe after another decent start or two, then can bundle Penny and Lugo to some sucker...err competitor...
I like Pedroia in the lead off spot, regardless of his recent BA demise. I like the way the lineup works right now and I wouldn't change it. I'm still not sold on Ellsbury's overall OBP abilities and he seems to be more relaxed down the order. And yes, I like Papi still at 6, regardless of his mini resurgence. Let's walk before we run here...
Paps. Ah paps. It's painful but he's getting it done. It's approaching Dice-Kish levels of frustration to watch but what do you do? Tell him to knock a few mph off the pitches to try to throw straight strikes? My only fear of course is him totally losing it in the 7th game of a playoff series..and then we will be truly f*cked.
Hey we've got the best record in the AL and as far as I'm concerned the best combo of ownership and management to go along with it, so I have faith. And from an atheist, that's something.
I am pleased the Sox DL'd Dice K instead of repeating their mistake with Buchholz last year and allowing him to continue to rack up automatic losses for 3 months. If there's no structural damage found yet Dice K is throwing 91 instead of 94, there may be a tired arm going on. Regardless I'm happy they got him out of the rotation. I hope he enjoyed his WBC fun this year; it will be his last.
I think so
I won't miss him for the rest of the year - Clay will be up sooner than he thinks I feel.
I think I'm going to two Portland games this week, who should I be looking for?
I alluded to this in the Gamechatter, but I wonder if Papelbon will revert in the second-half of the season. Maybe his arm can't take 70 innings of that motion per year, but 35-45?
Have you got numbers from the "eye doctor" date you've chosen not so randomly. I'm too lazy too look it up myself.
By god man, I hope you are correct in that he's just mr. 950 OPS Papi again...
1.107 OPS (.286/.429/.679)
35 PAs: 8 H, 2 2B, 3 HR, 7/5 BB/K
Add yesterday's performance (2-for-4 with a HR) to that, and it's even more encouraging. If I've done the math right, he's now got an 1.186 OPS (.313/.436/.750) since visiting the eye doctor.
And see if you can catch a Tazawa start. He's been pitching very well up here.
Do you thing the Sox are going to eat all that money left on the contract? The chances of them swinging a trade to get Lugo off the team seem...remote.
I like the idea of giving Lowrie some extra time at Pawtucket if he doesn't look right on his rehab stint though. No reason to force him in there. I'm with the IronChef on this one that Green isn't going to go like this forever but hell, ride it while you can. It's reminiscent of Alex Cora deciding to hit .380 for the first two months of 2007 while Pedroia found his way. It's not going to last but the timing is pretty freakin' convenient.
I took that as one of the "good" signs, because he turned on a dinky changeup, which meant Papi still had enough pitch recognition skills
Well, his batting eye isn't rusty it seems (2 BB last night). He may play lights-out and get himself up sooner (fingers crossed).
The Rays bullpen has been pretty crummy this year. Whether that is the cause of them underperforming their PR I don't know. I would say it's been more luck than anything, they've had a real bad record in one run games (8-15).
Also doesn't help that they're getting next to nothing from Navarro, Upton, Burrell, and their RF spot (Gabe Gross needs to get the hell out of Matt Joyce's way) -- maybe Barlett & Zobrist going nuts has helped mitigate that somewhat, but not enough. And the nominal back of their rotation (Sonnanstine & Kazmir) has, to this point, been about as bad as their bullpen. Still, they're only 2 games back of the WC, so it's not like they're beyond redemption by any means. I liked the Rays to win the WC over the Yankees before the season, and I'm still confident they'll get there.
Probably a good dose of bad luck and an average bullpen have combined to hurt them.
I've read that he totally overhauled his swing, and he's always had a very good batting eye. Still, there has to be some significant regression coming.
Dude hit .253/.339/.505 - you sure you're talking about last year?
I hadn't realized how good Masterson has been as a reliever this year, mostly because he was so maddening as a starter (though relatively effective as a fill in). 20Ks, 6BBs, and 1 HR in his 21 innings of relief. He looks nasty doing it too.
Papi's home run was a shot given the size of that stadium. He remains returned.
The Globe has an article about Varitek's neck being stiff and it affecting his hitting. Here's an idea Red Sox, sit him more often then. Until the past couple days, he'd been awful in June, and if they gave him more rest, maybe he'd do better now and latter.
I will never figure out how Hideki Okajima is good, but he is. One thing though: a huge natural platoon has emerged this year, unlike the past two. Small-sample size, or is he coming from the side more?
And...his OPS on the season now stands at an even .700! The first time it's been that high since April 8th.
I'm glad I'm not the only one baffled by his success. Mediocre stuff, OK control, I don't get it.
As for the other thing, I can only speak from visual evidence but I don't see a difference in release point. Maybe he's moved further over on the mound? I would guess more sample size than anything else though.
Dude, that's been happening for over a month now:
ERAs, May 16-present:
Beckett, 1.60
Lester, 2.78
Penny, 3.35
Sox overall, 3.31
Edit: Here's the graph of Penny's velocity: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=535&position=P&pitch=FA
he doesn't have mediocre stuff. he has a good change up and curveball. also, his delivery is consistent between his 3 pitches. i'm not particularly baffled.
The other reason I think he's so hard to hit is that his split-change is a serious plus pitch. It either has huge movement for a changeup or it comes in far slower than a normal split, and clearly hitters have not been able to distinguish the fastball from the split-change out of his hand. When he has the split-change working, Okajima is one of the better relievers in baseball. The curve doesn't look all that special to me, and when Okajima's limited to the fastball and curve, like it seemed last night, he's walking a tightrope. I do think that Okajima seems to end up pitching better on that tightrope than I'd expect, and that might be where some of the surprise comes from. He's a smart pitcher and he's never afraid to throw any of his pitches in any count.
Penny's velocity is up in his last three starts, but so are his walks. I'm hopeful that he can adjust to his better velocity and either improve his command or recognize he doesn't need to shoot for the black when he's sitting 95, but he needs to adjust before it's going to translate into consistent results.
As a long man / semi-roogy, he's wicked great. And his rubber arm is a huge asset - I mean, if the Red Sox think a 24-year-old pitcher can mix 10, 30, and 50 pitch outings without any trouble, and scale up to starting or back down to relieving in a week, they must think his shoulder is basically bionic.
An additional possibility is that the ball moves differently than ones thrown by other pitchers, which slightly upsets hitters.
Should the Red Sox look for a Mike Lowell replacement? He has been sliding offensively and if it is injury related, you have to be worried that it will linger. Plus, I don't think the defense is going to return and the left side of the infield is a huge problem.
I think "should" and "will" get you to two pretty different answers. I think for 2009 the plan such that it is is to go with Mark Kotsay and Youkilis on the corners like we saw this weekend. I think if they get confirmation that his 2009 is over they might be aggressive at the deadline but if it is an issue where they feel it can be managed they will just go with the status quo.
Obviously we are only a few months removed from a pretty aggressive pursuit of Teixeira so if a long term replacement comes available they'll do it but I can't think of anyone who fits that bill right now.
He's the new Jose Melendez!
Related to this: when was the last time a bullpen, anywhere, was this good top to bottom?
Data: Current members of Red Sox bullpen, as relievers, combined this year: 178Ks/82BBs/16HRs in 200.2 IP or 8Ks/9, 3.5BBs/9 and .72HRs/9.
It would be an upgrade for the Sox to do that, but they might be able to get more for Delcarmen. Look at his stuff. Look at his numbers. He's closer material. A team without a closer might give up someone better (or at least more durable) than Nick Johnson. I'm just saying this in the sense that there might be someone else out there, not in the sense that I have someone particular in mind.
[EDIT] I missed Lugo in place of Green and leading off.
He'll be OK. I think he'll be better than Lowell has been this year playing on the bad hip (he's been great on the reaction plays but has no range), but not as good as a healthy Lowell. As long as he's passable, and it doesn't affect his hitting, he'll be among the best 3Bs in the league in overall value.
I don't think it's all that rare. Take last years Jays bullpen: 7.5 Ks/9, 3.75 BBs/9, .7 HRs/9. The peripherals are a bit worse, but that's over an entire season, and that's everyone from BJ Ryan to Armando Benitez. ERA was 2.94, sOPS+ was 82 (this years Red Sox: 3.18, 88). Granted, that was a phenomenal bullpen, but it was made up of Jesse Carlson, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, and Jason Frasor. Surely some team has done better at some point.
You know what, I think Will Carroll is worse then he let's on. Am I the only one who thinks Will Carroll is annoying?
No - he reminds me of Greg Growden - a total douche
Slagging Lugo is far from irrational.
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