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1. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: June 28, 2005 at 05:52 AM (#1436043)Care to elaborate on "a SP"? Are you saying that anyone in the rotation is expendable? Given what you're looking for - a good reliever and a backup OF - I think any of our starters deserve more in return.
And, yes, I'm aware David Wells is one of our starters.
We're not trading for a top-tier (or even mid-tier) CF midseason. Either he'd ride the bench - not going to happen in June - or we trade away Damon to get him - also not going to happen. There's no way we move a SP to replace Damon. Again, in terms of insurance policies on Damon, I think Jay Payton is the man. He's MOTO: the Mientkiewicz Of The Outfield. For defense, he'll do. For offense, he might have some use. And he'll fill the position fine until something better comes along.
Moving a SP to fill a bullpen slot is easily done, by simply moving a SP into the bullpen. Any of our starters are pitching better than Mantei, Embree, and Halama (MEH).
Is it possible that the best move might be to call up a ml starter like Papelbon or Alvarez for the bullpen?
And a backup outfielder? We have the best 120 OPS+ backup outfielder that no one's ever heard of.
UUU and Jason Michaels for Mueller and the non-Wells starter of your choice.
If you need someone to replace Mueller, you can have Bell too, if you want, but I assume you have a better option somewhere.
I'd rather give Pedroia some time in AAA. If you really need a real utility infielder, Machado is probably better than Vasquez ... Machado can at least handle it defensively.
Alvarez, Lester or Papelbon (or even Meredith or DelCarmen).
The in-house options to pitch in the major league bullpen are Papelbon, Meredith, Delcarmen, or maybe Hansen. not alvarez or lester. I'd rather keep Lester and Alvarez starting games in the minors.
There is no need to get rid of Halama. He has pitched exactly as expected -- a FIP of ~4.6. When he was signed, what were people's expectations? I figured a 4.7-5.2 ERA with the ability to start a few games and give multiple innings of relief when needed. PECOTA gave him a ~4.85 ERA, iirc. He is at 5.8, but with fine periphs.
Vazquez
I can't find confrimation re: his option status? If he has one, to flip his 4-6 ABs for Machado makes more sense than to bring up Dustin. Machado and Hanley are on the 40 man, Dustin is not. Why screw that up now? It isn't the arbitration clock so much. Of course, the only real downside is not having Tim Baushcer anymore, I suppose.
Embree
I agree-- he looks bad. But, what do you want in his place? If we are looking for a sub 3.5 ERA pitcher, there are few and they will cost. If we are looking for league average over ~30 innings, that can be patched together internally (Jeremi and kids) or with the Terry Adams of the world. (John Hattig, btw, will play in the futures game -- but that is probably a function of Gaum, not John, who has been hurt this year.) I wouldn't be surprised if a Juan Cedeno is traded for a Terry Adams type. To get anything better will cost.
Stern
He will have to make the team in 10 days or so after his second (third?) injury rehab, unless he gets Playstation Thumb Disease. Does this mean that Youks, with 2 starts and 17 ABs in June, goes down? Or, does the backup SS sit in AAA?
Petagine
This decision possibly also has to be made by weak's end.
Bottom line is something will likely happen in the not too distant future, though I doubt it will be life altering.
The Indians have several, plus Fernando Cabrera in Buffalo, and they could really use a third-baseman. Mueller for Riske? Rhodes? Maybe even Betancourt?
Payton, Stern, and Ambres say hi.
That's actually a darned good idea. The Indians' bullpen is stacked and they don't seem to like Riske or Matt Miller (demoted after a fine spring, still being used in low lev. situations) as much as they should. They use Betancourt, Rhodes, and Howry for the end-game non-save situations, so they wouldn't miss Riske/Miller too much.
The problem is that AFB is actually hitting right now, posting an 899 OPS in June. If Boone goes into another struggle they'd probably be interested, but right now I'd doubt it.
They could use a DH instead of Broussard/Blake or an upgrade of Gerut/Crisp/Blake in the corners (send 'em Millar!), but their main concern is probably getting Elarton/Davis out of the rotation. I'm not sure that we match up so well there.
uh ... no. Travis Hafner can only play DH because of elbow problems.
I'm not sure about this. Elarton doesn't inspire much confidence, but he's a passable #5 starter. The Indians are 4th in the league in ERA, 10th in runs scored. They need more offense and Boone has been a black hole at the plate most of the season. Broussard was pretty good last year and hasn't been nearly as bad as Boone this year. An outfield of Sizemore, Crisp and Gerut has potential - even Gonzales could be useful one day. Mueller for one of the bullpen arms could really help both teams.
Man, you're being pretty generous if you ask me.
His BABIP is high and his LD% doesn't explain it (though, perhaps his GB/F does). For what his purpose is, he is fine.
In any event, I don't think Pedroira will fetch as much as his value, but otherwise have no untouchables, per se. I've never been as in love with Hanley as others, though the articles today about the Sox players rooting for him were nice.
How much value does Hanley Ramirez have outside of the organization? Many people have viewed him as a solution for CF, especially with Renteria signed for the next two years. My understanding is that this move is solely because of Renteria, not because of any defensive ineptitude at SS.
If that's the case, why move him where he could lose value (assuming no offensive increase from the move)? We could get another CF prospect from a team that needs a long term solution at short.
Maybe Chris Snelling is asking too much, but it's a fit -- the M's have a CF in Jeremy Reed, Pokey is their every day SS, Mike Morse doesn't project to be anything special. They have a few SS prospects including Nomar's brother but they're all further away than Hanley.
2003 -- 249/312/443 (386 AB)
2004 -- 275/370/488 (418 AB)
2005 -- 250/303/453 (232 AB)
Which is more likely to happen going foreward?
And while Boone's overall numbers are horrible, what I think is more relevant is that he is performing well now. You don't bench a guy or address that position as a need when he's playing well. You do that when his overall numbers stink AND he's playing poorly at that time. Sure, that could happen over the next month, but at this very moment I doubt they'd view adding Mueller as a priority.
Sizemore is fine, but Gerut/Crisp aren't much to write home about. Crisp is a 340/450 guy over 800 PAs now (with a bad SB%) and Gerut is at 360/410, with his best year being 336/494 in 2003 (granted, he was injured part of last year). Juan Gone is likely out for the year. Casey Blake has been better of late, but even him at full strength isn't that great.
The numbers aren't horrible on face value, but these are high-production positions here. Outside of KC, is there anyone clearly worse than that group in the corner OF spots?
I know that's probably not a popular sentiment here, but Arroyo is both valuable and, particularly once Schill comes back, expendable.
C Varitek
1B Millar
2B Bellhorn
3B Mueller
SS Renteria
LF Ramirez
CF Damon
RF Nixon
DH Ortiz
C Mirabelli
IF Olerud
IF Youkilis
IF Vazquez
OF Payton
SP Clement
SP Schilling
SP Wells
SP Wakefield
SP Miller
RP Timlin
RP Embree
RP Mantei
RP Meyers
RP Arroyo
CL Foulke
I have Halama going, but it could be Embree. If they go with 12 pitchers, my guess is Youkilis gets sent down. Here's what I'd like to see:
1. A good bullpen arm - preferably youngish - to replace Embree/Halama. Handedness isn't that important.
2. A middle infielder with a some pop who can back up Renteria and spell Bellhorn if he continues to struggle.
3. Millar gone, Petagine up.
I'd like to see Payton stay, but if they do trade him, Ambres or Stern could easily take his place. Mueller looks like the most tradable non-prospect with his replacement already on the roster and several third-basemen (Boone, Crede, Bell, Lowell) stinking it up on contending teams. All in all, looks pretty good.
Before the season started a friend of mine mentioned that he didn't know who the new Red Sox players were. I told him they got Wade Miller, which is spelled similar to Millar but pronounced like Mueller, plus Matt Clement, Matt Mantei, and David Wells. I told him if four names weren't easy to remember, he could just shorten it to one name: Fat Matt Miller.
Hence it would be really funny to me if the Red Sox would trade for Matt Miller.
On an unrelated note, Ortiz's deal, 3 yrs (including a 2007 option that will be picked up) for $20M total, bought out arbitration years or FA years? I ask because the sports talk people are lauding the Red Sox for the deal and saying that Ortiz took a discount. My memory is that it was not that much of a steal because at least the first two years were arbitration years.
On another unrelated note, I do not see David Ortiz on the Sox after 2007, too pricey and a steep decline because of his body type.
You can have David Wells swallow all three of them on the next Red Sox road trip, then sh!t them out once he makes it back to Fenway. With his fake teeth and disjointed jaw, Wells could easily ingest them all. And save the Red Sox thousands in buffet fees over a few days.
In face the other fatso Schilling wants to help out, he should stop chatting to Jenny Craig but send the word that he'd invite Mesa and Baez to a little pow wow in the Rose Garden, then get Dubya to go Saddam on them until they join the Red (White and Proud) Sox.
Barring that, you can all tell Darren to stop maltreating Pedroia as if he lived at Neverland and just send him over to... eh... to... eh... to some team that needs a scrappy 2Bman who hits doubles like he's the bastard child of Wade Boggs and David Eckstein. Darren will live; he can always fall back on loving Craig Hansen.
On an unrelated note, Ortiz's deal, 3 yrs (including a 2007 option that will be picked up) for $20M total, bought out arbitration years or FA years?
IIRC, Ortiz was in his 2nd year of arb when the Twins let him walk because they didn't want to get hit with a $3-$4 million salary. That would make 04 his last arb year. Before the season, I believe the Red Sox and he settled on something around $5 mil., then later tore that up and did the 2 year deal for around $11 mil. + the $7.5 mil option.
At the time (mid June), I recall thinking the price was a little bit high for a guy who had no defensive value, a poor injury history, and an 04 OBP of .350. It looks pretty good now, of course.
As for all the other trade talk, I didn't mean to imply that we should trade starters for relievers. I think we should try one of our starters as a setup man (maybe Miller is the right choice, he's not doing much in the rotation), and also give some of the kids a shot.
I don't think Cleveland is looking to move anyone but Wickman, who's arguably their worst reliever. They have a great pen and they're contenders.
I would be looking more at Seattle or the Dodgers, who could use a good 3B. Not sure what I'd want back.
I'd go for that. Ok to dream isn't it...
"Outside of KC, is there anyone clearly worse than that group in the corner OF spots?"
Jordan .240/.286/.314 in 218 PAs
Langerhans .255/.329/.431 in 171 PAs
Mondesi .211/.271/.359 in 154 PAs
Johnson .256/.373/.419 in 102 PAs
There's been a few PAs out there for Pete Orr, but not many. Johnson has been the only one that impressed me, but he started his season 1 for 30.
Heh. He could never get on base for the rest of his contract and it already would be worth it.
Miller, Wells, Foulke, Embree, Mantei, Halama
These pitching problems have been exacerbated by some very bad defense at the corners, and worse than expected D at the up-the-middle positions.
Despite this, we're in 1st place and in pretty good shape. So that's nice.
I'm very skeptical that Miller, Embree or Mantei can get the job done. Miller looks a lot like Jeremi Gonzalez out there - a pretty good fastball, but not enough command, a breaking pitch that he can't consistently throw for a strike, and no third offering. There's reason to hope, I guess, that he's just getting his bearings and he can improve, but I worry.
If he were throwing 93-95 like in his first outing, that could cover for a lot of faults, and so I really like the idea of trying Miller out in the bullpen.
I'm not going to say, "so when Schilling gets back, Miller goes to the pen." I've been skeptical of the Sox ever having six healthy starters all year, I'm not going to assume it, now. I do think that the Sox should be looking at mid-level bullpen and rotation help, with plans to shuffle . (As well as calling up Petagine fergodsakes.) At some point, the ml guys will need a shot, if only because the trade market looks like a wasteland.
I think you basically have to pray that Foulke finds those extra two-three mph he's missing occasionally. There's no midseason pickup that can make up more than half the difference between good Foulke and bad Foulke.
Miller, Wells, Foulke, Embree, Mantei, Halama
David Wells is having a fine season. Halama's role is long-relief/spot starter, so it's not like he has to pitch brilliantly to deserve his role. The rest I agree with.
Arroyo may be the best potential closer we have (Clement would be wasted in the role.)
Wow. Foulke looks terrible, but talk about some short memories. The guy's had 6 straight seasons with an ERA under 3. Let's cut him a tiny amount of slack.
He was old enough to be heading for the decline phase -- 31 already when they signed him, 33 by the next WS
Bob Wickman - 36 (age)
Mariano Rivera - 35
Eddie Guardado - 34
Foulke is pitching terribly, and maybe should be replaced in the closer role, but the sky is not falling. He's not in a decline phase yet, he's in a sucks phase. It'll pass.
From the bullpen that we should keep:
Foulke
Myers - It's interesting that Francona is having him pitch to righties too. I'd like to see him back in the LOOGY role. He's done well this year
Timlin
Halama (strictly mopup)
We need two BETTER arms to replace the wasteland that is Mantei and Embree. SOembody to bridge Timlin and Foulke. We've needed this alst yaer, I kept saying it, nobody would believe me.
We also need a real first basemen, but i'd be pretty happy with a Johnny O/Youk platoon. Good D and good plate discipline with an unfortunate lack of power.
I like what Bill Mueller does for this team, but I think he's nearly done. I wonder if he has any trade value. I woudln't have a problem if he finished the year and walked at the end, but he shoudl be traded.
Die Kevin Millar Die.
Basically, what the Red Sox need is a right handed RF/1B bat. BADLY. Somebody to play RF against lefties so Nixon can rest, or 1B sometimes so YOuk can play 3rd to rest Mueller. I don't know where we can find one though.
God what a useless player. I don't have anything AGAINST the guy personally, he appears to be trying and working hard, but he can't bend over to save his friggin' life. I hope we can trade a minimal asset for Pokey. You know, a REAL super-defensive 2B/3B.
Unless it involves taking Eric Milton.
I don't doubt he's an excellent hitter, or that he's likely to get better over the next four years.
Rather, my issues are 1) he's a first baseman, and not a good one, and 2) he's basically going to demand market value.
I would support (hypothetically) going after Dunn as a free agent in the 10-15M range, but I'm less convinced that the Sox should empty the farm system, effectively for the right to pay Dunn a free agent contract.
No, he's still alive. He just lives in Cincinnati...
the bullpen is the #1 priority, but when you have a chance to get an elite player, you go for it.
14 bad, but DIPSy innings are not enough to give up on a guy with so much recent success. I haven't seen a terrible pitcher in the games I've seen of Stanton.
On 1B, for some reason it seems like Millar and Mueller are somehow untouchable on this team, which I find shocking. Petagine/Olerud is almost certainly an upgrade on Millar, and Youks looks to be about as good or better than Mueller. If Nomar was tradeable (for a lesser player), if it was okay to let Pedro walk, then anyone else is in play as well. Make the moves necessary to improve the damn team.
uh, kevin, I think Mikael meant that the Sox should claim him off waivers and then have to pay him the remainder of his salary, which is about $2m.
I'm not sure I'd bite for the $2 mil. I'd rather wait and see if he could be had for the minimum. That might change if the scouts agreed with Mikael, though.
Yes, we can all read his statline as well as you can. The reason that I advocate trading him is that we have someone who can step in behind him.
I would like a better utility infielder but Pedroia is better than anyone we could trade for and he comes free of charge. He should be up within the month.
He needs to be playing regularly so that we can tell if he's ready for 06.
If Bellhorn continues to hit .233/.346/.388, I don't think he'll be blocking anybody.
(It isn't an issue of starting his clock. It is an issue of losing other players.)
Whether to make a move for Dunn depends on the asking price. Presumably the Reds went public with his availability b/c the private offers weren't up to par.
Anyway, there is really no need for a backup SS on this team -- Pawtucket is a bus stop away or a short plane ride. Vaz would be nice if he were productive, but if not, stash him in AAA or on the DL.
You've sold me.
I think the Sox need a Pokey type guy right now. Good speed at middle IF and great defense. A late inning defensive sub/pinch runner, and can start once a couple of weeks without embarrassing himself.
Who would you rather have: Dave Roberts, Gabe Kapler, or Jay Payton?
Having him in the majors won't help the team that much, and it won't help his development at all to get a few at-bats a week, if that.
I realize Youks can't spell Renteria because nobody on the team besides Renteria can play short (including Vazquez), but Youks already doesn't get much time and he's almost certainly a better hitter right now than Pedroia...
If the Red Sox trade Mueller, get rid of Millar and call up Petagine and Pedroia, they could start Youks at third and Petagine at first and have Pedroia spell all four infielders (with Bellhorn playing third when Youks gets a day off and Youks playing first when Petagine rests). But I don't see that happening.
Dunn is 9 years younger.
If Bellhorn continues to hit .233/.346/.388, I don't think he'll be blocking anybody.
A .734 OPS from the 9th hitter in your lineup is fine, and there's absolutely no reason to suspect Pedroia would do better.
Plus, Bellhorn is on fire right now. He's raised his OPS 51 points in 4 games. Let's see if he's finally regaining his form from last year.
I think the Sox should take a flier on Borowski. He's got an 11/1 K/BB, and I see no reason to believe the 5 HR in 11 IP is for real. (That's based on his historical stats, of course. I haven't actually seen him pitch this year.)
Couldnt hurt to stick him in Pawtucket for a couple of weeks to see what he can do. He was very, very good for a couple of years there.
Let's see if he's finally regaining his form from last year.
I honestly have no idea what to expect from this guy. Great in '02, really bad in '03, quite good last year, meh so far this year. I'm guessing he's good for .250/.360/.420 or so, which is fine.
"He looked good (Wednesday night)," Sox general manager Theo Epstein said. "He had no problems completing his delivery, and he made a couple of plays at first base. Everything improved over the course of the game with his velocity, command and breaking stuff. He averaged 92 (mph), touched 94 and looked like himself in his last two innings."
Man, that sounds excellent. After Schilling's comments a month ago about returning with only a high-80s fastball, I was prepared for a very mediocre Schilling. Schilling around 92 with good command and a split, I mean, that's really positive news.
Though maybe everyone else knew that already...
(I found it on the Yahoo! fantasy player page)
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