Some DIPS numbers...

First, the Sox...

JC Romero is so useless, DIPS doesn't even acknowledge his existence.

--Wily Mo in Center over Coco was an odd choice, with Coco hitting well lately.

He had a minor tweak of something last night. Basically, he was supposed to get a night of rest or something.

Wily Mo sucked at the plate today was I thought was better at CF than Coco

Interesting that he was used in the 9th rather than the super-high-lev eight tonight.

Sure, but I think Tito made the right move in that regard. He knew the ninth was going to be high-lev with the top of that order coming up, and it was Paps' fourth appearance in five days. I can't fault him for trying to get through the bottom of the Yankee order, then bringing Papelbon in fresh for the ninth.

I can see an argument for going to Donnelly earlier, considering Okajima had pitched three straight days, but other than that I think his bullpen choices remained solid.

I can see an argument for going to Donnelly earlier, considering Okajima had pitched three straight days, but other than that I think his bullpen choices remained solid.

Definitely could have been worse. We coudl have had Timlin and Romero.

Ugh, tomorrow our available relievers are Timlin, Romero, and Piniero. Sounds like a bounty-hunting firm.

Next the Yankees...

Oops, sorry about that...

Just a comparison of bullpens so far...

BOS pen:
3.96 dERA, 2.34 ERA, 42.0 IP

NYY pen (not including Pettitte's two outings)
4.48 dERA, 3.41 ERA, 68.2 IP

Bullpen arms on pace for...

This man does not play games with the code tag.

Thanks for those numbers - our ERA is still south of our peripherals, in spite of three DIPS unlucky days.

I remain somewhat troubled by the offense; it seems while the bats have come alive a bit recently, the Red Sox have had an unusually large split between how they've hit good pitchers and bad ones. That they can hit Jeff Karstens or Chase Wright isn't that impressive to me, and doesn't do much on its own to assuage my fears that we're in for a (relatively) bad offensive year.

Four games up now, and yes, I do think it matters. Gotta build that lead now, while the Yankees pitching is weak.

This could be the year that Torre's maniacal bullpen usage (does not include his brilliant and season-turning optimization of Mariano from 1996-2000) finally not only weakens but crushes the team's post-season chances.

What is up with Joe Torre and Andy Pettite's Allie Reynolds impression?

i'd just like to point out that, over the past 5 years, the Yankees and Sox are now 56-56 against each other. along with 3 memorable gut punches, 2 to the Sox and 1 to the Yanks. i can't think of another rivalry that was this tight, this important, and consistantly this close.

also, i was checking out Mo's stats after reading about his troubles against the Sox. the man has 53 blown saves in the regular season for his career. 11 have come against the Sox. we might be the only team out there that can say we still have a chance when he comes into the game and not just be hoping.

god i love baseball.

Four games up now, and yes, I do think it matters. Gotta build that lead now, while the Yankees pitching is weak.

Build up the lead, hopefully pwn the krap out of interleague play, make sure older players get a day off a week (this is where Hinske, Pena, and Cora come in), and hopefully this will prevent players getting hurt.

Torre managed this series like it was the World Series. He uses Rivera in the 8th after swearing up and down he wouldn’t.

He swore that Mo would be a one-inning pitcher. But he didn't say which inning. It's possible (although not too likely) that Torre brought him into the highest-leverage situation possible in the 8th with no plans for him to pitch the 9th.

Also, I don't believe Kevin Thompson makes the last out in Game One of the World Series (although he may have been the best option at that point).

There were calls in the press for Torre to be fired after Game One. I can't disagree more. He only had one good starter, and I thought he pitched Pettitte well. As a fan, I wanted him to go to Mo when he did.

It was a frustrating loss, so in that way I understand why people say that. But IMO Torre has done zanier stuff before, and if Mariano slams the door, everyone would have been fine with it.

--As I predicted, A-Rod (and Jeter!) was hit by a pitch. After that he went 1-4 with a single and 2 Ks. Did he seem less willing to dive over the plate?

I don't understand, especially with the need to retaliate for Jeter and A-Rod, some Red Sock wasn't forced to hit the ground somewhere in the midst of 4 gopherballs. If I was pitching it would have been Drew.

Wily Mo in Center over Coco was an odd choice, with Coco hitting well lately.

Coco was banged up. I'm sure it had nothing to do with the Jackie Robinson tribute. (As I mentioned in passing the other day - befitting their history, the Red Sox were the last team in the AL to do the Jackie Robinson tribute.)

Also, I don't believe Kevin Thompson makes the last out in Game One of the World Series

It'll be hard for him to do that when his team won't be in the World Series.

Just a note, since some people seem to have settled on "close games, Sox were healthy, Sox fans need to worry, Yankees showed they're actually great for losing close games" as the official spin on the weekend sweep...

Batting stats, 4/20-4/22
Red Sox: 363/454/647
Yankees: 269/325/417

You can say what you want about hitting in the clutch, but it seems to me like there's solid evidence that the Red Sox really did dominate the Yankees this weekend.

it's a sweep, i don't see how it could be positive for the yankees.

The Red Sox faced one MLB starter, one AAA starter, and one AA starter, so you have to apply an MLE to that batting line.

Things will look better once Clemens signs with the Yankees. I guarantee he wouldn't give up 4 homers in a row. Maybe 4 runs on 2 HR and 2 HBP, but no way 4 homers.

I didn't read anyone here say that the sweep was a positive for the Yanks.

There were encouraging signs - a sweep in which each of the games was 14-2 would have been worse. I was happy with the way the Yankees hit the Sox starters in general, and I won't be reacting too strongly to a Fenway sweep in April, but the Yankees really needed to win one of those games.

Four games up now, and yes, I do think it matters.

I can't even begin to express how much I disagree here. If the shoe were on the other foot, would you really be concerned about a four-game deficit three weeks into the season?

How can you seriously say that a four game lead doesn't matter? Do you also believe that a two run home run in the top half of the first inning doesn't matter?

The Yankees started the season as about 3-2 favorites to win the division and they're now about 2-1 underdogs. This has been a horrible month for them.

I can't even begin to express how much I disagree here. If the shoe were on the other foot, would you really be concerned about a four-game deficit three weeks into the season?

God yes.

There's been a lot of talk about the things that Sox fans should worry about because of this sweep. RLYW is teeming with it. As I've said there, I see no reason to change my opinion from preseason that if the Sox rotation overperforms a bit and the Yankee rotation underperforms a bit, these teams are dead even. All I'm saying is that the Red Sox beat the snot out of hte Yankees this weekend, and fans of teams who beat the snot out of their rivals don't come away with lists of things to worry about. Some people seem to be disputing that.

IF my team's starting rotation included the likes of Karstens, Rasner, and Wright, then yes, a four-game deficit already would be worrisome.

What is up with Joe Torre and Andy Pettite's Allie Reynolds impression?

Haven't people around here been saying for years that it makes sense to use starters occasionally in relief, when they'd normally throw on the side? I mean, he threw 9 pitches. That makes sense to me as a way to maximize what you get out of your starters.

Am I the only one not that impressed with Dice-K? I mean, he looks like a good pitcher. A solid, dependable guy but not the wunderkind I was expecting from offseason analysis.

Am I the only one not that impressed with Dice-K? I mean, he looks like a good pitcher. A solid, dependable guy but not the wunderkind I was expecting from offseason analysis.

Only 3% of the Matsuzaka prediction thread was calling for a Johan Santana season. Everyone else basically expected a ~top-10 AL pitcher. I don't see any reason to doubt that original call.

The fun thing about Daisuke, for me, is his upside. He's one notch of fastball command away from being the best pitcher in baseball. He hasn't fully realized the potential of his stuff.

Haven't people around here been saying for years that it makes sense to use starters occasionally in relief, when they'd normally throw on the side? I mean, he threw 9 pitches. That makes sense to me as a way to maximize what you get out of your starters.

As Joe and Jon pointed out. This used to be done in the regular season. Spahn would get a handful of relief appearances a year. I guess the concern with Pettite is that he's not 100%, but the Yanks aren't exactly awash in arms at the moment.

Looking ahead to later in the week, how's Baltimore doing it? Smoke and mirrors?

How can you seriously say that a four game lead doesn't matter? Do you also believe that a two run home run in the top half of the first inning doesn't matter?

If I let on the impression that I thought it means nothing, then I was wrong. But we've played less than a tenth of the season; I would put forth the analogy of your team's first two hitters in a game striking out and looking bad for perspective.

Two-run homers in the first sometimes win games. I don't think many pennants have been decided by four-game leads on April 23.

The Yankees started the season as about 3-2 favorites to win the division and they're now about 2-1 underdogs.

This I won't buy. That's a huge swing in a small sample size, and if the true "odds" are like that, I submit that the oddsmaker doesn't know baseball. The only way for this to be true this early, IMO, is if the injuries to the Yankees were severe and longterm.

I, on the other hand, am worried, even coming off of a fun, exciting, though stressful sweep.

We had to struggle, coming up with two nearly impossible acts (the 4 dingers, and beating Rivera) to sweep a team at considerably less than full strength, featuring starting pitching that reminds one of Jeff Sellers and Wes Gardner.

Forgive me if I'm not dancing in the streets.

I didn't participate in the Dice-K threads. For much of the time around his bidding and immediately after he signed I was distracted. I was basing much of my impression on snippets of BBTN, the newspaper and the amount of money being tossed around.

Reading your predictions, I think they're pretty close to what will happen. I'd guess his ERA will end up closer to 4 than 3, but that is a minor quibble. I certainly didn't mean to say I think he looks like a bad pitcher, just that he isn't the second coming or anything. My guess is that the other folks saying what I'm saying haven't fully analyzed him and are just going off popular press analysis. Which, I should realize, require some salt.

I, on the other hand, am worried, even coming off of a fun, exciting, though stressful sweep.

We had to struggle, coming up with two nearly impossible acts (the 4 dingers, and beating Rivera) to sweep a team at considerably less than full strength, featuring starting pitching that reminds one of Jeff Sellers and Wes Gardner.

Forgive me if I'm not dancing in the streets.

PECOTA had the Yankees at 3-2 before the season. They haven't updated their playoff odds today, but it was 42% before losing yesterday and without accounting for the Yankees still having injury problems.

"two nearly impossible acts (the 4 dingers, and beating Rivera)"

The 4 HRs were highly unlikely only because they were consecutive. There was nothing terribly unlikely in the Sox hitting 4 HRs against Chase Wright.

And Mariano Rivera has blown nearly 1/3 of his save opportunities against the Sox since 2003. So "nearly impossible" seems equally inapt there.

Looking ahead to later in the week, how's Baltimore doing it? Smoke and mirrors?

The O's probably don't have the pitching to be real contenders, but there's nothing wrong with the lineup. Nick Markakis is the real deal, a true impact bat. He's better than all the big dollar outfielders from last year's free agent market except maybe for Drew.

PECOTA had the Yankees at 3-2 before the season. They haven't updated their playoff odds today, but it was 42% before losing yesterday and without accounting for the Yankees still having injury problems.

There's something wrong with looking at playoff odds reports in April. Maybe I'm just getting old.

I think we were all expecting a guy who would strike out a batter per inning with decent control and put up an ERA of around 3.00-3.50.

Going by last year's scoring levels, that's a 132 to 154 ERA+ range. That would mean being somewhere between the 2nd and 4th best pitcher in the AL by last year's leaderbaord, and right around Clemens' average season (depending on the IP).

I can't even begin to express how much I disagree here. If the shoe were on the other foot, would you really be concerned about a four-game deficit three weeks into the season?

We are Red Sox fans -- we start our concern in November.

This Day in Baseball History, April 23:

April 23, 2006: Boston with 2 game lead over Yankees
April 23, 2005: Boston with 3 game lead over Yankees
April 23, 2004: Boston with 2.5 game lead over Yankees
April 23, 2003: Yankees with 4 game lead over Boston
April 23, 2002: Red Sox with 1 game lead over Yankees
April 23, 2001: Red Sox with 2 game lead over Yankees
April 23, 2000: Yankees with 2 game lead over Boston
April 23, 1999: Yankees with 2 game lead over Boston
April 23, 1998: Red Sox with 0.5 game lead over Boston
April 23, 1997: Red Sox with 1 game lead over Yankees

I could keep going back to the last year the Red Sox finished ahead of the Yankees, but I don't want to risk contracting carpal tunnel syndrome. Anyway, I'm sure Boston will make one of these April 23rd leads hold up one of these years. This could be the year! Fever Pitch II!

This I won't buy. That's a huge swing in a small sample size, and if the true "odds" are like that, I submit that the oddsmaker doesn't know baseball. The only way for this to be true this early, IMO, is if the injuries to the Yankees were severe and longterm.

Most of the shift isn't coming about because of any changes in our assessments of their true talent, but rather simply because the Yankees have spotted the Red Sox a four game lead. If the Yankees were four games better per 162 than the Red Sox coming in (which I don't buy - I think it was closer than that), then they've gone from being serious favorites to being slight dogs (because there are less than 162 games left).

PECOTA has the Yankees as one game better per 162. Ignoring the various scheduling differences, assuming no change in our assessments of their true talent, that advantage is down to .895 games better, and they need to make up a four game deficit. That is significant. Now they've done it before, so it's by no means hopeless, but I don't think a shift from being 60% to win the division to being about 40% now is unreasonable. It might not be a 3:2 to 1:2, but I think 3:2 to 2:3 is probably about right (which is where PECOTA will have them about).

Small sample size caveats don't apply here by the way, since again, we're not changing our assesment of their true talent, just factoring in the existing lead.

The sample size issues indeed invade discussion of an early 4-game lead, though. Factors which largely equal out over a season such as quality of competition (both inferior teams and the natural highs and lows of a team throughout the season) are huge at this time of year.

So what you're telling us Guapo is that this is the largest lead the Sox have had over the Yankees on by April 23rd in at least a decade?

Good news.

(Not that I'm feeling over-confident about it. Waaaay too much baseball left to be played, with Phil Hughes and possibly Clemens waiting in the wings, not to mention Wang and Mussina.)

I can't even begin to express how much I disagree here. If the shoe were on the other foot, would you really be concerned about a four-game deficit three weeks into the season?

Oh, and to be clear, if the shoe were on the other foot, and the Red Sox were 8-9 and the Yankees were 12-5, and it had come as a result of Beckett being 2006 Beckett, and Matsuzaka being 2006 Beckett too, while Mussina, Pavano, and Wang were healthy, happy, carefree and gay, then yeah, I'd peg the Red Sox' chances at the division at about 20%.

A team that's probably a bit inferior to at the start of the year probably anyways, spotting the competition four games early? That's really not nothing. It's less concerning for the Yankees, but it's still something.

I think we were all expecting a guy who would strike out a batter per inning with decent control and put up an ERA of around 3.00-3.50.

If he was american born I think we'd call him Roy Oswalt.

For what it's worth, Tradesports has the two teams about even (48% Red Sox, 47% Yankees). My best guess was a bigger edge for the Red Sox, but the crowd seems to disagree, and I have no reason to doubt their wisdom here.

As a Sox fan, the four-game lead is not as significant as the fact that I genuinely believe the Yankees bullpen could be a train wreck by July. Conversely, the Sox pen has been used sparingly. Even these last three games when the SP were getting hit, they still went 7, 6.2 and 7.

I don't get the big deal. It's April. The Yankees rotation is going to be a it is now. The Yankee team in Fenway is not representative of the Yankee team that will be around most of the season. Wang pitches tomorrow.

The way things are going for the Yanks, I expect the Sox to win two of three next week too. However, I see no reason for alarm. If the Yanks are 7 or 8 games out in mid August, I would be concerned.

If he was american born I think we'd call him Roy Oswalt.

Oswalt doesn't really strike out a batter per inning - 6.79 K/9 last year.

I don't get the big deal. It's April. The Yankees rotation is going to be a it is now. The Yankee team in Fenway is not representative of the Yankee team that will be around most of the season. Wang pitches tomorrow.

Again, it's not because we think "Oh man, the Yankees are four down already - they must not be as good as we thought", it's because they've spotted the opposition four games. Even if the Yankees are going to be at full strength by this afternoon, being down four games changes their chances of winning the division significantly, simply because those are four more games you need to be better than the opposition.

It's not a huge deal, but it's not nothing - Tradesports suggests it's led to the Yankees' odds of winning the division decreasing by 20%. PECOTA thinks the shift has been larger than that.

I think we were all expecting a guy who would strike out a batter per inning with decent control and put up an ERA of around 3.00-3.50.

If he was american born I think we'd call him Roy Oswalt.

A 3.25 ERA would have been a 142 ERA+ last year. Clemens for his career: 144 ERA+, 8.6 K.9

BTW I agree w everything bibigon said except I think the Yankees are a little bit bigger dogs than he does

This sweep matters--every game matters, and a four-game lead matters.

The question is "How much" and the answer is "Only a little. particularly with the wild-card." This was an accurate snapshot of where these teams are right now. The real issues for the Yankees are:

1. Whether/when Wang and Mussina will get back out there and stabilize the rotation. This is by far the most important issue facing the Yankees right now, much more than being four games back. The ESPN radio guys said Wang is back tomorrow and Mussinna likely next week. If that is true, and they are back and themselves, and pitching well, the Yankees will be fine.
2. Wright of course did the best he could, but since I was out yesterday evening I listened to a lot of the game on radio--Dave Campbell and Dan Schulman. Campbell is usually unfailingly diplomatic, but he described Wright's stuff as "pedestrian" more than once. That means the guy doesn't have much, so the second issue is, will Hughes be ready to help the team by mid-summer? My guess is Cashman envisioned a Wang/Mussina/Pettite/Igawa/Hughes rotation for July and beyond, with Rasner, Karstens, Pavano and maybe Clippard soaking up extra starts during the grind, with Pavano perhaps being traded for bench or farm depth. "Chase Wright" wasn't in the plan, and I am not sure it was the right call-up, even with other guys struggling.
3. As people have said, Torre needs to avoid burning out the pen too early. That is of course tied to #1. This may mean leaving a couple of starters out there to get pasted, as LaRussa did a couple of times last year with Marquis. That issue is also far more important than the four-game deficit and given Torre's age and proclivities, that may be tough.

As for the Red Sox, 12-5 is what happens when you get positive answers to your key early questions (I don't see Pedroia as a huge issue either way), and I think everybody realized that the Red Sox could win around 100 if things break right. So far, most things re breaking right.

I went to saturday's game which of course was lots of fun.

--someone (looked like Lugo) was wearing Varitek's jersey complete with "C" in warmups before the game. not sure the story there.

--when rivera walked out to the bullpen in the 6th or 7th he got a big mock ovation from the crowd.

--Karsten's was lucky he only let up 1 homerun in 6 at-bats to Manny+Ortiz. Manny was on him, his flyout to center was a bomb. Ortiz laced three off him to right, for double-fly out-homer. I thought his flyout was the hardest hit ball of the three and was sure it was gone, but Abreu made a nice grab (he might have been playing deeper after the first one got over his head for the double).

--two bunt singles in a row are fun

So, so far the Diceman has outperformed Clemens career peripherals and should have a lot more to show for it than a .500 record.

I don't think he'll continue to out-Clemens Clemens for another 15 years but right now, he's matchiong up pretty well to him.

holy god. You are comparing Dice-K's 4 starts (two of which came against the powerhouse Royals and Mariners) to Clemens entire career?

The bottom line is the Yankees SUCK!

Here's something that I haven't seen elsewhere...



Offense is down all around the league in a fairly major way, at least so far. Although weather seems the most obvious explanation, there may well be other reasons for it. Regardless, it must be noted that all teams (on average) are having more success at containing opposing offenses, compared to last year.

Offense is down all around the league in a fairly major way, at least so far.

I thought that story had been fairly well covered, and most always blamed on the weather. I think its kind of cool to look at an AL scoreboard and see 5 out of 7 games the teams don't combine for 10 runs.

Timing is bad though. Imagine if offense was down like this last spring, when everyone was looking for the big effect of tougher steroid penalties?

Will Carroll claims that Matsuzaka struck out A-Rod on gyroball in the 5th:

The quote was:

Dear Jon Miller. I love listening to you call a game, but you sounded like your partner when you compared a gyroball to a foshball. I'm going to send you a copy of The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers. I think you'll enjoy it. And the gyro? That's what Alex Rodriguez watched go by for a strikeout in the fifth ...

This is the 2nd time he's claimed to see Matsuzaka throw a gyroball - the other time was a strikeout of Sexson.

Anyone want to weigh in?

This is the 2nd time he's claimed to see Matsuzaka throw a gyroball - the other time was a strikeout of Sexson.

Anyone want to weigh in?

iirc, matsuzaka doesn't call it a "gyroball" ...

Yeah, the problem is that if you define the gyroball as a mildly tweaked changeup, then I guess Daisuke sorta throws one, as do many other people. If you define it as a physics-defying "double spin" freakball, then he doesn't and neither can anyone else. Or if you're sorta in the middle, then maybe he throws something like a gyro.

Luckily, as crisp points out, we have a source who is both well-acquainted with Japanese discussions of the gyroball and with Daisuke Matsuzaka's arsenal of pitches. That source denies it's a gyroball. That's good for me.

"holy god. You are comparing Dice-K's 4 starts (two of which came against the powerhouse Royals and Mariners) to Clemens entire career?"

I don't think that was the point at all. The point was that his peripherals so far compare favorably to Clemens career peripherals, so if we're looking for a sense of how those peripherals translate over a very large sample, well, they translate very well.

That said, with just four starts to consider, good scouting is probably more effective than peripherals in determining future success. I haven't read as much in that regard as I would like to have so far. What I have read has suggested that Matsuzaka is pitching well enough to be very good, though he sometimes struggles with control and with men on base.

"Chase Wright" wasn't in the plan, and I am not sure it was the right call-up, even with other guys struggling.

Chase Wright was the callup because he is the guy on the 40 man roster. Everyone else would have required a move. My guess is, by time Hughes is "ready" (6 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 10 K in Syracuse the other day), they will be ready to shift Pavano to the 60 day DL.

I don't get where you guys are getting Dice-K's ERA+ to be 125-142 or whatever. His current ERA+ is 109. Not to say he can't get and ERA+ of 125, but he isn't there yet.

iirc, matsuzaka doesn't call it a "gyroball" ...

I don't think he can say "gyroball" successfully.

I just noticed that the Red Sox OBP, and SLG are both tops in the AL, and their OBP allowed and SLG allowed are also both the best marks in the league.

That's been with a .308/.408/.523 home line, and a .235/.303/.367 road line. At home, we're scoring 7.50 R/G, tied with the Yankees. On the road, we're scoring 3.22 R/G, more than two runs worse than the Yankees.

Not that splitting a small sample into half is a particularly good idea, but still, it's interesting to note.

I've been working much of the weekend and most of today, but I wanted to weigh in with some kudos for you Sox fans and wishes that you bask in this weekend's festivities.

However, in reading this:

All I'm saying is that the Red Sox beat the snot out of hte Yankees this weekend, and fans of teams who beat the snot out of their rivals don't come away with lists of things to worry about. Some people seem to be disputing that.

I have a few comments: chief among them that the Sox "beat the snot" out of the Yankees. The combined total score was 21-17 - with the Yankees bringing the tying or winning run up late in each game. Were they bad losses - no doubt, you hate to lose games where you have the lead, but it happens.

Coming out of the weekend I was struck by a few things:

Okajima is the real deal. He looks an awful lot like Mike Stanton circa the late 1990s. This is a good thing for Boston.

The Yankee offense - even minus a number of key cogs for large chunks of the game - handled Boston's vaunted rotation pretty well. Everyone's ERA went up by roughly a full run and the Yankees hit them around pretty well.

Boston's struggling offense certainly got healthy on the Yankees' gassed bullpen and two rookie starters. This was not wholly unexpected, but disappointing nonetheless.

Joe Torre managed "scared," it looked like. Going to Mo early, bringing Pettitte in for a relief inning, pinch running for Giambi. It's like he knew he didn't have all his bullets, but rather than aim better he just fired indiscriminately and hoped to hit the target. Unless you're John Rambo, shooting from the hip generally doesn't work, and it didn't here.

It was my first real exposure to lil Peoria, and I came away underwhelmed. He got lots of play by play and commentator credit for making the most of his talents, etc... but it just doesn't look like he's got much in the way of talents to work with. His swing is greatly outsized for his body and he's relatively free swinging. Maybe he'll add some discipline and maybe he'll start making better contact, but I just don't see it. He did make some nice plays in the field, albeit mostly ones of self-preservation and reaction, but they were nice.

On RLYW, I called him a less talented Andy Stankiewicz, but that's grossly unfair. He may make a nice life for himself as a backup utility infielder someday, but I suspect his career will pale in comparison to the Yankees young keystone sacker.

All told, you've won this round, Red Sox, but I suspect we'll know more about both teams toward the end of the month - the Yankees will throw Igawa and Wang against Boston next weekend, with a Friday starter yet to be named. Matsui's back today, so let's take stock of where we all are next weekend.

Until then - leave your livestock alone.

I have a few comments: chief among them that the Sox "beat the snot" out of the Yankees. The combined total score was 21-17 - with the Yankees bringing the tying or winning run up late in each game. Were they bad losses - no doubt, you hate to lose games where you have the lead, but it happens.

Ok, I'll post it again.

Red Sox: 363/458/647
Yankees: 269/336/417

Those are hte batting lines of hte Red Sox and Yankees. The Yankees and Red Sox both had completely freakish arrangements of hits and walks such that the Yankees scored way more runs than a team that hits like that over three games typically will, and the Red Sox scored way fewer.

Areas where the Red Sox and Yankees were pretty even, small edge Sox: runs scored
Areas where the Red Sox beat the snot out of the Yankees: wins, hits, homers, walks, strikeouts

I see no reason to take runs scored as the be-all end-all. If you take all three factors into consideration - wins, runs, component numbers - you get the picture of the series more clearly, and it weighs heavily to the Sox.

And again, as above, this doesn't mean the Sox are better than the Yankees. This means the Yankees came into Fenway with likely the worst roster they'll field all year, while the Sox came in at full strength, and exactly what everyone expected to happen happened - the Sox kicked 'em around for three games.

Speaking as a Red Sox fan, most of what Sean posted is pretty reasonable in my opinion. One big exception is the comments about Pedroia. Not because I think he's destined to be a star, or as good as Cano, but because you shouldn't make sweeping generalizations about a player's talent based on watching him play three games.

BTW...Michael Kay (via Girardi) announced that Philip Hughes has been called up and will start on Thurs.

HAHA, spoken like a true Yankee fan. Pedroia needs more plate discipline. The guy walks twice as much as he strikes out. He has done that just about his whole career. He is in the top 40 in BBs with less than 50 ABs. If you are going to criticize someone, atleast make an argument that makes sense. You picked out one of his best characteristics and stated it as a negative. Pardon while i go laugh.

HAHA, spoken like a true Yankee fan. Pedroia needs more plate discipline. The guy walks twice as much as he strikes out. He has done that just about his whole career. He is in the top 40 in BBs with less than 50 ABs. If you are going to criticize someone, atleast make an argument that makes sense. You picked out one of his best characteristics and stated it as a negative. Pardon while i go laugh.

Spoken like a true neophyte Primate... read some of the Peoria/BTF backstory first.

Speaking as a Red Sox fan, most of what Sean posted is pretty reasonable in my opinion. One big exception is the comments about Pedroia. Not because I think he's destined to be a star, or as good as Cano, but because you shouldn't make sweeping generalizations about a player's talent based on watching him play three games.

That doesn't stop some people around here ;-)

In all seriousness, it was my first real solid look at him and I just wasn't all that impressed.

Did he strike out? No. But there's more to plate discipline than walks and Ks... he just didn't appear comfortable for the most part and hacked a lot.

In his six ABs he saw a total of 22 pitches - and swung at 9 of them (if my math is right) and not all of those were strikes or good strikes (if my memory is right). Is he a total hacker, probably not... was he a bit over his head in his first meaningful Yanks-Sox games - probably. But whatever, its a small observation in the grand scheme.

This means the Yankees came into Fenway with likely the worst roster they'll field all year, while the Sox came in at full strength, and exactly what everyone expected to happen happened - the Sox kicked 'em around for three games.

I think this is probably the most valid thing anyone can say about the series... a wounded Yankee team got beat by a full-strength, and hot, Red Sox team.

While MCA points to walks, homers, etc... and I point to runs, the bottom line is, as Herm Edwards said: "You play to win the games. You don't play to just play." And the Sox won the games.

While MCA points to walks, homers, etc... and I point to runs, the bottom line is, as Herm Edwards said: "You play to win the games. You don't play to just play." And the Sox won the games.

and by etc you mean wins. which you were trying to discount.

I'm not discounting wins... a one-run loss counts the same as a 10-run loss - but the margins were much closer.

I guess I was objecting to the beat the snot out of language - when I think beating the snot out of a team, I think of wins or sweeps where the results match the periphs... say, a five-game stretch where a team gets outscored 49-26 or something.

Also, I can't believe I quoted a Jets coach.. someone shoot me please.

So, so far the Diceman has outperformed Clemens career peripherals and should have a lot more to show for it than a .500 record.

I assume you've been bribing the sample size police.

Still, Dice-K is not a 20 year old rookie. His Japanese and International success should count for SOMETHING in his predictions.

Unless you're John Rambo, shooting from the hip generally doesn't work, and it didn't here.


I've already been warned for a tasteless comment on Primer this week.

Yankees fans bring up the injuries on their pitching staff, but they should recognize that the Red Sox have built up better pitching depth in AAA than the Yankees. AS fifth starters, the Red Sox has Tavarez, Papelbon, Lester (by mid season), David Pauley, Kyle Snyder, and Devern Hansack. In an emergency, they had Runelvys Hernandez and Abe Alvarez. I am not saying that any of these pitchers are great starters, but the depth makes it more likely something will stick. The same is true of the bullpen. The Red Sox have a lot of arms that they can rotate through the back of the pen to see what sticks.

In contrast, the Yankees starting pitching depth appears to be all young pitchers like Hughes, Clippard, Jackson, and Wright, or bad like Rasner.

It seems to me that if the situations were reversed, the Red Sox would fare better than the Yankees. Maybe I am overestimating the Red Sox pitchers.

I guess I was objecting to the beat the snot out of language - when I think beating the snot out of a team, I think of wins or sweeps where the results match the periphs... say, a five-game stretch where a team gets outscored 49-26 or something.

Sean, MCoA's point was that the results did match the peripherals - the Red Sox won all three games, and they hit for 1105 OPS in the process, while the Yankees hit for a 753 OPS.

On another note, new postseason odds up are up on BP - it seems that MCoA's estimate of 2:1 was about right per them. The Yankees are now 31% for the division, as compared to 60% to start the season.

Yankees fans bring up the injuries on their pitching staff, but they should recognize that the Red Sox have built up better pitching depth in AAA than the Yankees.

This is an arguable point; it may be true. If the Red Sox were currently without Schilling and Beckett (I don't think Yankee fans should focus on the Pavano injury as "bad luck:" except to the the degree that Rasner is gone, too and is probbaly better than Jeff Kartstens and Chase Wright) then the picture would look very different. Saying "We have depth" is different than actually having to use marginal pitchers in a series against a tough, veteran lineup--as the Red Sox found out last August, and the Yankees foudn out last weekend.

In contrast, the Yankees starting pitching depth appears to be all young pitchers like Hughes, Clippard, Jackson, and Wright, or bad like Rasner.

It seems to me that if the situations were reversed, the Red Sox would fare better than the Yankees. Maybe I am overestimating the Red Sox pitchers.

I think that's probably what's happening here - Lester, Pauley, Snyder and Hansack probably aren't any better than Hughes, Clippard, Jackson, Wright or Rasner. For 2007, I'd probably prefer the Red Sox group, but that's by a razor thin margin.

Like I said, I know more about the Sox pitching, so maybe I am giving them the edge. They have more ML experience and they go deeper, which I think gives the Red Sox the edge.

The comparison fails also because the Red Sox's strength was their pitching while the Yankees were already comparatively weak. The Yankees injuries are more comparable to the Red Sox losing a bat from their lineup.

was he a bit over his head in his first meaningful Yanks-Sox games - probably.

Pedroia was 3-8 with a walk, 2 doubles, and a fine defensive play in the series. Not quite sure what you're talking about here.

Pedroia was 3-8 with a walk, 2 doubles, and a fine defensive play in the series. Not quite sure what you're talking about here.

He's talking about how he looked, not how he did. I don't agree, but Sean and I have different eyes and biases.

Frankly, I was glad to see Coco hit well in the series, but his swing still looked like a little-leaguer's. So while I don't agree with Sean's observations on Pedroia, I think it's valid to separate the results from the manner in which they were produced.

"Pedroia was 3-8 with a walk, 2 doubles, and a fine defensive play in the series. Not quite sure what you're talking about here."

Well, sure, he had a great series if you make things up. He went 0-2 in his first game and was pinch hit for by a guy hitting .182 at the time. He was then benched for a game and hit a double off a guy who was in AA a week ago. He actually went 2-6 in that series, with no walks and one double. Are we really going to argue that a guy who got his second XBH and his first RBI yesterday has looked good so far this year?

"You forgot the game-saving catch, CP. Way to leave out relevant information that might interfere with a attractive theory."

I was only adressing the things Biff got wrong. If we want to talk about defense, I could always point to Giambi's bloop single that some of the sixth graders in the toy store downstairs could have caught that went off of Pedroia fingertips.

How bout you wait till you have a foot to stand on before you start this arguement kevin?

"don't you have some brooms around you need to put away and forget about?"

Yawn, get your game up old man.

"Spoken like a true neophyte Primate" Ha.

How many games have you actually watch Pedroia play? I can say i have watched ever game he has played in the Majors with few exceptions and about 20-25 games in the minors. From plan eye and stat it is retarded to say he lacks plate discipline. Among batters with over 50 PA, he ranks 44th in P/PA. If you want to attribute that to his ability to hit foul balls, well be my guest. You can say plate discipline isn't all about BBs and Ks, but still he had a 6.4% K rate last season in the minors. If you want to disregard that fact, be my guest. I could continue to list stats, or i can talk like i'm an expert because i have seen him but i cna't top your vast knowledge from BTF and seeing him hit in 1 series. You know, ARod looked rattled after Dice-K hit him, he must be a bad hitter. I'm going back to laughing now.

"Spoken like a true neophyte Primate" Ha.

How many games have you actually watch Pedroia play? I can say i have watched ever game he has played in the Majors with few exceptions and about 20-25 games in the minors. From plan eye and stat it is retarded to say he lacks plate discipline. Among batters with over 50 PA, he ranks 44th in P/PA. If you want to attribute that to his ability to hit foul balls, well be my guest. You can say plate discipline isn't all about BBs and Ks, but still he had a 6.4% K rate last season in the minors. If you want to disregard that fact, be my guest. I could continue to list stats, or i can talk like i'm an expert because i have seen him but i cna't top your vast knowledge from BTF and seeing him hit in 1 series. You know, ARod looked rattled after Dice-K hit him, he must be a bad hitter. I'm going back to laughing now.

I could continue to list stats, or i can talk like i'm an expert because i have seen him but i cna't top your vast knowledge from BTF and seeing him hit in 1 series

Just as an FYI Ripwa, you've unwittingly wandered into the middle of a joke that unless you've been around for the endless Pedroia/Cano/Callaspo/Wright wars, doesn't really make any sense. Sean is being at least 50% facetious in his assessment, that's what he meant with regards to being a neophyte Primate.

As for the on-going war, Cano is obviously winning hands down at this point, but we're also not even to the end of April, so I think the appropriate answer is "We'll see."

Discipline, schmisipline. I'd like Pedroia to have a higher AVG, OBP, and SLG. (Same with Crisp, Pena, Ramirez, Varitek... well, heck, all of the Sox, now that you mention it).

For the record:

Nixon, April '99:
43 PA, .105 AVG, .209 OBP, .289 SLG
Pedroia, April '07:
52 PA, .205 AVG, .327 OBP, .250 SLG

Nixon's career through May of '99 (I think):
50 games (161 PA), .257 AVG, .321 OBP, .347 SLG
Pedroia's career through yesterday's game:
47 games (150 PA), .195 AVG, .282 OBP, .286 SLG

Dunno what any of this means, of course. (Not much, probably). Basically, neither were any good to start their careers. That Nixon turned out well means little for Pedroia, other than showing that can do reasonably well after a miserable 50-game start.

I'd rather have Cano, of course, but that goes without saying, right?

the toy store downstairs

And all this time we thought you had toys in the attic.

Well, sure, he had a great series if you make things up. He went 0-2 in his first game and was pinch hit for by a guy hitting .182 at the time. He was then benched for a game and hit a double off a guy who was in AA a week ago. He actually went 2-6 in that series, with no walks and one double. Are we really going to argue that a guy who got his second XBH and his first RBI yesterday has looked good so far this year?

Yeah, that was my bad. I was just going off the last three games in his game log which, whoops, include the first Toronto game.

"I was just going off the last three games in his game log which, whoops, include the first Toronto game."

That's what I figured when I went back to check the numbers (the 2 doubles tipped me off), sorry I was so snarky about it.

And we're about to be swept by the Jays.

Ohwell

hey, look at that, the yankees lost 2 games to the D-rays. good job, guys. phillip hughes will blow out his arm this year.

Patrick Sullivan has a nice, short piece over at Baseball Analysts about the frontrunning teams (and the Yankees), with thoughts about "Why they may be in for a slowdown" and "Why they may not slow down at all." In the former category, for Boston, Sullivan lists Beckett, Wakefield and the bullpen (all likely to come back to earth to some degree). In the second category, Sullivan lists these numbers:

Manny Ramirez .197 .296 .296
Kevin Youkilis .242 .342 .333
Julio Lugo .265 .359 .324
Dustin Pedroia .191 .309 .234
Coco Crisp .214 .250 .304
Jacoby Ellsbury .434 .483 .660 (in Portland of the Eastern League)

His conclusion: "Boston is the real deal."

One quibble, though: Lugo doesn't really belong on that list. He may slug a little more by season's end, but I don't see his numbers changing dramatically.

I went to last night's ugly game.

The attendance was supposedly 37,000+ and the highest at fenway since WW II according to the Herald. I dont understand. I was there for both Saturday's game against the Yankees and the Felix-Dizzy game 2 weeks ago, and there is no way in hell that those games had less people in attendance (even factoring the covered seats for the day game). How are they counting these things?

also i was really disappointed that the crowd turned on Wily Mo so much. we dont need a return to the negativity of 2000-2002.

[...] with just four starts to consider, good scouting is probably more effective than peripherals in determining future success. I haven't read as much in that regard as I would like to have so far. What I have read has suggested that Matsuzaka is pitching well enough to be very good, though he sometimes struggles with control and with men on base.

That was one of the things Miller and Morgan brought up during Sunday night's game, and I thought it was right on target. Matsuzaka's stuff doesn't look nearly as good out of the stretch. Maybe that's putting the cart before the horse (i.e. if he's consistently pitching out of the windup, he must be pitching well) but the specific observations they made regarding a slight loss of velocity and command backed up the point.

<u>Two Questions:</u>
1. When is somebody in the national media going to call ESPN and Fox onto the carpet for juicing their radar gun reports? As good as he is, Papelbon does not bring it at 98-99 mph. Nor do I believe Matsuzaka was touching 97 mph in the 7th. I realize this is not a new criticism, but it seems to be getting worse and really straining credibility.

2. Is anyone else struggling mightily with the formatting buttons? Using the buttons, I get [tag][/tag] which doesn't appear to do squat. If I change that to < tag >< /tag > minus the spaces of course, most of the formatting works, with the exception of quote and /quote. I'm running Firefox 2.0.0.3, and I don't know if it's a browser problem or a Java problem.

The attendance was supposedly 37,000+ and the highest at fenway since WW II according to the Herald. I dont understand.

The figure had something to do with comps according to Jeff Horigan.

1. When is somebody in the national media going to call ESPN and Fox onto the carpet for juicing their radar gun reports?

no ####, man. it seemed like they were really pushing hte zumaya throws 102 mph thing to boost ratings during the playoffs and have just stuck with it. it's really bad.

Fox lies about the ####### news every single ####### day when people's ####### lives are at stake. Do not think for a ####### minute that they are going to give a ####### #### about lying about radar readings. And don't think anyone is going to call them on it either because none of the rest of the ####### media ever does.