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   1. PJ Martinez Posted: July 25, 2007 at 11:06 PM (#2455229)
Might as well post this again, for whatever it's worth (from Nick Cafardo):

"It isn't for a lack of trying, but as of this afternoon the Red Sox were not close to a deal according to a source with familiarity with the Sox trade talks. The Sox had irons in the fire for sure. Dodgers' Triple-A third baseman Andy LaRoche, Tampa Bay Devil Rays infielder Ty Wigginton, White Sox right-fielder Jermaine Dye, Texas first baseman Mark Teixeira, outfielder Bobby Kielty and others were all on the radar screen and the Sox had various degrees of discussions concerning the above-named players."
   2. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 25, 2007 at 11:35 PM (#2455297)
The Royals could use another piece like Pena, couldn't they? I would think Pena for Octavio Dotel and Reggie Sanders would be a nifty move for both sides.
   3. PJ Martinez Posted: July 25, 2007 at 11:38 PM (#2455310)
Methinks you overestimate the trade value of Pena at this point. I don't think the Royals would give up Dotel alone for Pena, let alone Sanders to boot. I could see them countering with Sanders for Pena straight-up, in fact.
   4. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 25, 2007 at 11:40 PM (#2455317)
Kielty ws just DFA'd. It wouldn't take much to get him, would it? Not that I'd want him.
   5. NTNgod Posted: July 25, 2007 at 11:42 PM (#2455323)
The Royals could use another piece like Pena, couldn't they?

Due to his poor numbers this year, well-known defensive problems, salary, and service time situation - I'm only slightly exaggerating when I say your last urine sample has as much trade value as Pena right now.

Most indications are that the Red Sox are trying to dump Pena to free up the roster spot (he's pretty much a wasted roster spot right now, the way the Red Sox [don't] use him), but finding no interest.
   6. chris p Posted: July 25, 2007 at 11:44 PM (#2455331)
The Royals could use another piece like Pena, couldn't they? I would think Pena for Octavio Dotel and Reggie Sanders would be a nifty move for both sides.

deal!
   7. JB H Posted: July 25, 2007 at 11:48 PM (#2455337)
Does anyone know what LaRoche's PECOTA looks like? I know he plays in a crazy hitter's park so I'm not sure how good he is. I don't really get the point of getting him now, he doesn't have any value until Lowell goes and we don't have any valuable major league spare parts to trade for him.

I haven't really heard what Teixeiaiixaia's price is supposed to be. Is something like Bowden, Masterson and Gabbard totally unrealistic? If Youkilis gets involved I'd be pretty ambivalent toward the deal, and if Ellsbury/Buchholz get involved I won't like it.
   8. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 26, 2007 at 12:01 AM (#2455359)
Does anyone know what LaRoche's PECOTA looks like?


Kinda tastey, actually. 21 HRs and a .292/.353/.481 line with a 27.3 VORP.

Comparables: Mike Cuudyer, Carlos Quentin, Garrett Atkins, Brendan Harris.
   9. Chip Posted: July 26, 2007 at 12:02 AM (#2455362)
Will Carroll claims that the Nationals are interested in Pena, but have nothing of interest to the Sox to offer in return.
   10. John DiFool2 Posted: July 26, 2007 at 12:02 AM (#2455364)
LaRoche's AA stats (from my home town!) look pretty good, tho not as good as the AAA ones (and he also had 15 W and only 5 K's in his short cup of joe this year). Given that the Dodgers have inexplicably given up on him (okay, Abreu is a bit younger, but with much worse K/W stats), you'd think the Sox would be able to pry him away from the Dodgers for a pittance (say Murphy or Pauley), but nobody likes to trade a minor leaguer for a minor leaguer it seems...
   11. John DiFool2 Posted: July 26, 2007 at 12:04 AM (#2455373)
WMP probably goes to Japan next year I'd bet. Maybe he can do a Cecil Fielder, get a solid full season under him, and come back here in '09.
   12. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 26, 2007 at 12:04 AM (#2455376)
Will Carroll claims that the Nationals are interested in Pena, but have nothing of interest to the Sox to offer in return.


Not even Cordero?
   13. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 26, 2007 at 12:16 AM (#2455417)
Here's a good one:

Players NOT To trade: Bucholtz/Ellsbury/Lowrie/Lars/Masterson/Moss

That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
   14. chris p Posted: July 26, 2007 at 12:18 AM (#2455427)
spell his name right.
   15. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 26, 2007 at 12:22 AM (#2455432)
Oh frak off
   16. JB H Posted: July 26, 2007 at 02:42 AM (#2455760)
The foundation for a deal that would send Teixeira to Atlanta would be 22-year-old catcher-first baseman Jarrod Saltalamacchia, considered the Braves' top prospect. It would likely also include a young pitcher, potentially either 23-year-old right-hander Kyle Davies or 21-year-old left-hander Matt Harrison, and infielder Elvis Andrus. The Braves, however, are not likely to part with lefty Jo-Jo Reyes.


lol, so much for Teixjsiaoxjsaiosaia
   17. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 26, 2007 at 03:18 AM (#2455804)
Can we please panic now???
   18. Darren Posted: July 26, 2007 at 04:59 AM (#2455922)
I know I'm a big fanboy and all that, but some of these trade ideas are even beyond me. Pena for Sanders AND Dotel? LaRoche for Murphy or Pauley? LaRoche was rated an A- by Sickels before hitting very well at AAA this year. He's going to cost you someone like Bowden or Ellsbury (both B+s) or maybe more. Dotel is Linebrak only good.
   19. villageidiom Posted: July 26, 2007 at 11:38 AM (#2456004)
I'll repeat from the other thread, in a different way.

The Braves have a couple of "wants", and two "needs".

WANT to flip Andruw Jones for something worthwhile
WANT to get something significant in return for Salty
NEED to improve this year's team without mortgaging the future
NEED a better hitter at 1B

Manny + cash for Andruw seems like it would be worthwhile for both teams, though Atlanta likely gets the better end of the deal if the cash is right. Unless they actually put Manny in CF...

Anyway, what they could use this year is pitching. To make it worthwhile for them to give up Salty, probably their best prospect, you need to contribute someone who (a) is young, and (b) can pitch RIGHT NOW at a major-league level. Gabbard and Lester have both demonstrated that. I pick Gabbard for sake of argument because mentioning Lester around here as trade bait is a non-starter. Throw in Mirabelli simply for roster filler. Atlanta's last need isn't filled here, but is improving on a 64 OPS+ at 1B really that hard to do?

Does that get it done? Or am I undervaluing Salty / overvaluing good young pitching? Or the other way around?
   20. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 26, 2007 at 01:31 PM (#2456066)
I'd trade Manny for Salty straight up, although this would involve Youkilis in LF which is a no-no.
   21. chris p Posted: July 26, 2007 at 01:33 PM (#2456067)
I'd trade Manny for Salty straight up, although this would involve Youkilis in LF which is a no-no.

it's a good thing you're not running the team!
   22. John DiFool2 Posted: July 26, 2007 at 01:38 PM (#2456073)
LaRoche was rated an A- by Sickels before hitting very well at AAA this year. He's going to cost you someone like Bowden or Ellsbury (both B+s) or maybe more.


My LaRoche trade idea was based on the apparent disenchantment that the LA front office has with him, hence they might, at this moment, undervalue him some.
   23. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: July 26, 2007 at 01:48 PM (#2456089)
Does that get it done? Or am I undervaluing Salty / overvaluing good young pitching? Or the other way around?

I think you are undervaluing Salty. He's demonstrated that he can hit Major league pitching at 22 years of age ('though he's had a bad month). Gabbard's had good results, but he isn't really a youngster and was never a top prospect. He could be Jamie Moyer, or he could be Vaughn Eshelman. Lester is better, but I'm not sure how highly other clubs think of him now, since his cancer and mediocre AAA performance (his start against Cleveland notwithstanding).

If the Braves trade Salty during the season, they'll need to replace his production at first (Teix, presumably) and backup catcher, unless they think Pena is a suitable replacement. I think he's traded for Teix or not at all during the season.
   24. PJ Martinez Posted: July 26, 2007 at 03:25 PM (#2456219)
"I think he's traded for Teix or not at all during the season."

Agreed. I think the deals suggested above are non-starters. I would trade Lester and Gabbard together for Saltalamacchia-- and suspect Atlanta would turn that down. He's a switch-hitting catcher who can apparently hit-- that's a rare commodity (like Varitek in his prime).

By the way, according to WEEI (via SoSH): Brady Clark "cleared waivers and was signed to a minor league deal by the Red Sox today."

Could end up as the 4th OF.
   25. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 26, 2007 at 04:05 PM (#2456271)
it's a good thing you're not running the team!

I just said i woudln't end up doing it, because Youkilis would end up at LF, which is an idea i DESPISE.

But seriousy though, getting Salty for Manny is pretty good. If Salty projects to be a .850-.900OPS catcher at 300k
   26. PJ Martinez Posted: July 26, 2007 at 04:16 PM (#2456286)
The Sox could follow a Salty/Manny deal with a Jermaine Dye trade.

But Braves corner OFs are hitting fine, and presumably field much better than Manny, and of course cost much less.

I don't see a match.
   27. JB H Posted: July 26, 2007 at 05:00 PM (#2456372)
The Braves would never trade Salty for Manny. If Andruw bolts an Ellsbury/Salty deal would make a lot of sense though
   28. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 26, 2007 at 05:38 PM (#2456423)
I would rather give them Crisp and stick Ellsbury in center for the rest of the season.

Ellsbury is hurt right now, I think pulled his groin?

I'd let Crisp play out the rest of the season, and start Ellsbury in 08.

call down to AAA, start getting Brandon Moss 1B innings. Becuase if we don't get a corner IF and Lowell walks, Brandon moss could slot nicely in at 1B.
   29. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: July 26, 2007 at 05:42 PM (#2456433)
I would rather give them Crisp and stick Ellsbury in center for the rest of the season.

I'd have to think that the Brave's would be at least a little interested in such a deal; but again, after the season. Since Coco seems to have remembered how to hit and has learned how to play centerfield, his contract ($4.75M in '08, $5.75 in '09, $8M option/$500K buyout in '10) is pretty attractive. I don't see a Coco-Salty trade making much sense in-season, unless Andruw Jones comes to Boston and at least one other player that can help the Braves this season goes to Atlanta.
   30. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 26, 2007 at 05:44 PM (#2456436)
I don't see a Coco-Salty trade making much sense in-season

There is no way Schulerholtz is goign to trade Salty for Coco. He's going to get a bat and a legit pitching prospect out of Salty, because everybody in the league wants Salty. Count on it.
   31. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 26, 2007 at 06:34 PM (#2456527)
Yeah, I think Moss deserves a shot right now too. He'll do better than pena both offensively and defensively.

He's hitting really well in AAA right now, but I woudln't want him to come to the MLB this year and not play everyday. I'd let him finish the year at AAA playing everyday at 1B, and then hand him a MLB job next season as the Erik Hinske role, but without being as krappy as Erik Hinske.
   32. Darren Posted: July 27, 2007 at 03:28 AM (#2457485)
According to Will Carroll over at BP, the Braves should consider trading Salty to the Red Sox for Wily Mo, because the Braves need some power in the OF. Well, he looked good tonight anyways!
   33. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: July 27, 2007 at 03:46 AM (#2457506)
According to Will Carroll over at BP, the Braves should consider trading Salty to the Red Sox for Wily Mo


That would be delightful. Though I'd prefer to see Salty stay at C and avoid 1B (were he in Boston). Problem with that is he serves no purpose this season (or maybe even next).

I kinda feel bad for George Kottaras. Not enough Southwestern Ontarians in the bigs. And a .660 OPS in AAA won't get him there. I'd still rather have him than Boomer.
   34. Darren Posted: July 27, 2007 at 03:51 AM (#2457511)
Crap, I knew I'd mixed that up. He says the Dodgers should trade LaRoche for Wily Mo, then trade an extra OF for Dotel. Almost as kooky. Sorry for the confusion.
   35. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 27, 2007 at 04:28 AM (#2457547)
He's hitting really well in AAA right now, but I woudln't want him to come to the MLB this year and not play everyday. I'd let him finish the year at AAA playing everyday at 1B, and then hand him a MLB job next season as the Erik Hinske role, but without being as krappy as Erik Hinske.
So, he needs to stay in AAA for the next month so he can play every day, but then he needs to come up to the majors to not play everyday? That makes no sense.

I'm sure the Sox have feelers out on every player in baseball - constructing ludicrously one-sided trade offers out of reports of "interest" is, well, not a particularly productive use of even this unproductive internet-talking time. I too would love it if the Red Sox made a ######' A trade for Andy LaRoche, but everyone wants to make ######' A trades, so what purpose does it possibly serve to speculate that the Red Sox might make one?

What the Red Sox need, as best as I can tell, are a healthy Schilling, a fourth OF, and a backup catcher. Schilling is looking very healthy, which means the Sox aren't in the market for a starting pitcher of the non-ace variety. The Red Sox really have no room to make a move to upgrade Mirabelli - pissing off Wakefield doesn't seem worth it, not this late in the season - and regardless of whether it's a good idea, I can't imagine they'd do it. So that leaves 4th OF. The interest in Kielty suggests to me that the Red Sox value having a RH bench bat to complement Hinske, otherwise the difference between Kielty and Murphy would be negligible, given the role they'd play.
   36. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 27, 2007 at 04:32 AM (#2457548)
The first two paragraphs of post 37 are unduly harsh, I know. I just think that fans making up trades online is dumb, and people shouldn't do it.
   37. Chip Posted: July 27, 2007 at 04:49 AM (#2457555)
If only you could expect tonight's Wily Mo to show up more frequently. Now THAT'S a RH complement for Hinske.
   38. chris p Posted: July 27, 2007 at 05:22 PM (#2457735)
everyone wants to make ######' A trades, so what purpose does it possibly serve to speculate that the Red Sox might make one?

well, they might!
   39. Darren Posted: July 29, 2007 at 05:13 AM (#2460067)
How about this for a ####### A trade: cruddy utility guy for Dan Wheeler. Damn, that would have been good.
   40. Joel W Posted: July 29, 2007 at 09:34 PM (#2460844)
The Rangers apparently asked the Red Sox for Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury, and asked the Yankees for Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. And those kinds of deals are not happening. "My theory," said one AL executive Saturday, "is that Texas is controlling the market, and may even be stopping the market. They've got the best reliever and the best player on the market. So until they act, everything is stalled.

In the immortal words of Larry David, "What are you f'ing nuts?" Does Texas really think they can pull that?
   41. PJ Martinez Posted: July 29, 2007 at 09:44 PM (#2460856)
I don't think they're nuts at all. They can always re-visit the deal in the offseason. And they'll get great draft picks when/if he leaves. They can probably get lesser prospects at the deadline next year. The only reason to trade him now is if you're going to get a future difference maker.

Of course, Gagne is on a one-year deal, so I imagine there'd be more incentive to deal him-- though, again, he'll probably be a type A or B free agent, right? So they should hold out for something decent, unless they're just looking to save a few million dollars.
   42. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 29, 2007 at 09:51 PM (#2460863)
though, again, he'll probably be a type A or B free agent, right?


I don't think so. He only threw 2 innings last year, and only has 16 saves this year. Maybe he'll be a type B, but even that seems a bit unlikely considering how little he's pitched.
   43. Darren Posted: July 29, 2007 at 11:38 PM (#2460960)
He was type A last year after throwing about 2 IP total the previous two years. Not sure why.
   44. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:21 AM (#2461195)
Worst. Deadline. Ever.
   45. NTNgod Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:43 AM (#2461204)
He was type A last year after throwing about 2 IP total the previous two years. Not sure why.

He pitched 15.1 innings over two seasons with 9 saves and that was enough to put him in the top 30%. Weird.

Batters are ranked by plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, homers and runs batted in, but I don't know what the pitchers are based on.
   46. Joel W Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:34 AM (#2461225)
Are better GMs and better appreciation of prospects killing the trade deadline? It certainly seems like it. I gasp at the idea of trading Bucholz and Ellisbury for Teixera or Gagne, but I can't imagine that I would've felt that way at 14 (10 years ago), or that the GMs of the day would have either.
   47. Dr. Vaux Posted: July 30, 2007 at 08:00 AM (#2461239)
Yes, one of the few changes in baseball strategy--the game on the field as opposed to the accessibility of media coverage--over the past 20 years that's a good thing.
   48. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:42 AM (#2461250)
Are better GMs and better appreciation of prospects killing the trade deadline? It certainly seems like it. I gasp at the idea of trading Bucholz and Ellisbury for Teixera or Gagne, but I can't imagine that I would've felt that way at 14 (10 years ago), or that the GMs of the day would have either.


I woudn't call it a better appreciation of prospects, but an economic adaptation: because of ridiculous FA markets, teams MUST have a stream productive pre-arb 300K players being pumped out from the farm every year, in order to cut payroll and remain profitable. That's the economic truth.
   49. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 30, 2007 at 11:57 AM (#2461268)
It's not "better" GMs. It's parity. Every single team in the National League is within 5 games of the Wild Card. That's not true, but it's pretty darn close to true. (And Houston, one of the teams that actually isn't close, seem to think they're buyers.) There are vanishingly few teams that are out of the race, and they're almost all really bad teams without good players to trade.

There are fewer players available, so there are fewer trades. The issue is structural. "Progress" is always a dubious historical concept.
   50. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 30, 2007 at 11:59 AM (#2461269)
Wok makes a good point, too. The value of prospects has increased because the mean MLB salary, and the salary of an MLB star, has increased at a much higher rate than the MLB minimum. Prospects are worth more than they used to be because pre-FA players have a higher relative value. Again, it's structural.
   51. tfbg9 Posted: July 30, 2007 at 04:42 PM (#2461532)
FWIW:
July 30, 2007
Dye chances 'pretty good'
By Gordon Edes, Globe Staff
While Foxsports.com is reporting that the Braves and Rangers have a deal in place for Mark Teixeira, a major league source said a short time ago that chances were “pretty good” that the Red Sox would complete a deal with the Chicago White Sox for outfielder Jermaine Dye.

In exchange for Dye, the White Sox would get Wily Mo Pena and a minor league pitching prospect (not Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester).

More on this to come ...
   52. Josh Posted: July 30, 2007 at 04:43 PM (#2461534)
Edes
While Foxsports.com is reporting that the Braves and Rangers have a deal in place for Mark Teixeira, a major league source said a short time ago that chances were “pretty good” that the Red Sox would complete a deal with the Chicago White Sox for outfielder Jermaine Dye.

In exchange for Dye, the White Sox would get Wily Mo Pena and a minor league pitching prospect (not Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester).

More on this to come ...
Pitching prospects not named Buchholz or Lester... Bowden or Masterson are the only ones, I'd think, that have much trade value (maybe Bard, still, but unlikely). Puffing by Edes? A real deal? Bowden for a couple months of the difference b/w Dye and Wily Mo + the compensation picks sounds more than fair to me...
   53. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 30, 2007 at 04:45 PM (#2461540)
Gabbard has trade value.

I admit to having no understanding of the mechanics of this trade. I can't see myself liking a trade that isn't a pretty big rip-off to the White Sox.

edit: ah, but Gabbard's not in the minor leagues. Then I dunno. Maybe they like Bryce Cox! He has the greatest slider in the history of the world since Craig Hansen!
   54. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 04:55 PM (#2461565)
Ugggh, this trade is terrible. A competent corner OF who has an OBP of less than .300 and is a rental will cost Wily Mo and BOWDEN????

F!@# off Kenny Williams.
   55. Nasty Nate Posted: July 30, 2007 at 04:58 PM (#2461576)
would they just bench JD Drew those 4 days a week he feels up to playing for the rest of the year?
   56. Josh Posted: July 30, 2007 at 04:59 PM (#2461578)
Dye is likely an A comp FA at the end of the year...
   57. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:00 PM (#2461581)
would they just bench JD Drew those 4 days a week he feels up to playing for the rest of the year?

First, a Papi DL visit, then a Drew/Dye platoon? that sounds decent.

NOT BOWDEN OR MASTERSON YOU FOOLS.
   58. Josh Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:04 PM (#2461584)
The link now says "In exchange for Dye, the White Sox would get Wily Mo Pena and one of either minor league pitcher Justin Masterson or Sox reliever Manny Delcarmen."

Masterson I see the reason for hesitation - but if they have a trade lined up for another MR (esp a better one!) I don't see any reason to hesitate on MDC.... no?
   59. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:06 PM (#2461586)
The link now says "In exchange for Dye, the White Sox would get Wily Mo Pena and one of either minor league pitcher Justin Masterson or Sox reliever Manny Delcarmen."

Masterson I see the reason for hesitation - but if they have a trade lined up for another MR (esp a better one!) I don't see any reason to hesitate on MDC.... no?


Oh this is even worse, Manny D is getting outs NOW for the MLB team, and has been pitching really well.

Fail Theo Epstein.
   60. chris p Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:08 PM (#2461588)
there are only 2 reasons i can think of to trade for dye: 1, nobody else wants him and we're going to use him as a backup/ph. 2, we're worried about drew and/or ortiz's health.
   61. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:22 PM (#2461611)
This is what I refer to as "Theo Epstein overthinking himself". Delcarmen? Masterson? Bowden?

Fail.
   62. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:25 PM (#2461620)
OK, NOW it's the Worst Deadline Ever.
   63. Josh Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:36 PM (#2461638)
FWIW - I do'nt think it hard for the Red Sox to get a better MR than Delcarmen. If you aren't willing to trade Declarmen, than you aren't willing to make this team better - that is fine, but that is what it is.
   64. karlmagnus Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:38 PM (#2461643)
Ancient and useless -- typical Theo deal. Probably not better than WMP, who's nearly a decade younger. Can't they confiscate his cellphone in the week before the trading deadline? Also, doesn't someone have to offer Dye a contract for Sox to get draft picks?
   65. John DiFool2 Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:39 PM (#2461644)
The 2 draft picks might pan out as well as any of those guys might. You're just trading a few extra years before those comp pick prospects make an impact.

Frankly I'm not entirely sold on Bowden, and if a gun was put to my head and I was forced to choose I'd go with him, with 2 chances that one of the picks ends up being as good as he will be, as Bowden is the furthest from the majors.

Guys, to get talent you sometimes have to move talent (c.f. Hanley for Beckett). Yeah I'd like to fleece other clubs too, but you rarely get something for nothing anymore.
   66. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:39 PM (#2461646)
FWIW - I do'nt think it hard for the Red Sox to get a better MR than Delcarmen. If you aren't willing to trade Declarmen, than you aren't willing to make this team better - that is fine, but that is what it is.

Trading Delcarmen makes the team WORSE. Who's going to eat those 7th innings now? Tavarez? Snyder?

More overwork for Okajima! YAY!!

Jermaine Dye makes this team better, but by how much? He's having a krap year, he's not even that much better than Wily Mo at the plate. This is supposed to cost a younger cheaper Wily Mo and a Delcarmen?

Pass

If we have to DL Ortiz, can't we just ride it out somehow? Manny DH, Wily Mo in LF with Moss platooning? SOMETHING?

This is ridiculous.
   67. 1k5v3L Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:48 PM (#2461657)
mlbtraderumors claims the pitcher will be delcarmen or masterson.

Ironchef, wok off the ledge. You're seriously underrating Dye and overrating Delcarmen. The Sox not only find a taker for Wily Mo, they also get two draft picks next year. It's a great trade for Boston.
   68. chris p Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:49 PM (#2461659)
The 2 draft picks might pan out as well as any of those guys might. You're just trading a few extra years before those comp pick prospects make an impact.

Frankly I'm not entirely sold on Bowden, and if a gun was put to my head and I was forced to choose I'd go with him, with 2 chances that one of the picks ends up being as good as he will be, as Bowden is the furthest from the majors.


agreed. but i really like masterson.
   69. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:50 PM (#2461660)
Let's not get carried away with Wily Mo. His only value to the Red Sox is trade value - he won't start, and he can't play defense. He very well could turn into a great DH someday, but he was never going to do so for the Red Sox. Jermaine Dye is obviously wildly superior to Wily Mo.

The problem is that I don't see where the value will be realized. Dye could add regular season value if the Red Sox plan/expect to DL at least one of Papi or Drew. but I doubt they plan on either Papi or Drew being unavaiable in October, and my basic baseline question for a Red Sox trade remains, how does this help in October? Dye's advantage over Wily Mo is half defensive, and as a 4th OF / pinch-hitter, he's just not adding all that much.

I don't get this trade.
   70. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:51 PM (#2461662)
Manny D in his career 82 IP: 107 *ERA+ 74K, 31BB, and only 4 HR. Cheap, young, healthy, and can only improve.

Jermaine Dye is a rental. A sub .300 OBP rental. We might not even get the picks, we have to offer him arbitration. What if he accepts?

Edit: Why are we calling up Bucholtz? He's not dominating AAA, why would we expect him to be ready?
   71. Josh Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:52 PM (#2461665)
i really like masterson
Me too - I'd rank (from most desirable to keep to least): Masterson/Bowden/Delcarmen.

I may be very irrational - but I think Buchholz or even Masterson would be as good as Delcarmen for the rest of the season. Certainly Buchholz.
   72. 1k5v3L Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:57 PM (#2461672)

Jermaine Dye is a rental. A sub .300 OBP rental. We might not even get the picks, we have to offer him arbitration. What if he accepts?


One, it's silly yo assume that Dye will post sub .300 OBP for the remainder of this season. He's far more likely to post .900 OPS than .300 OBP. Two, he won't accept arbitration. Three, he'll be a type A free agent. Four, he's cheap for the remainder of this season. In short, the Sox upgraded from Wily Mo to Dye, and traded Delcarmen, a generic middle reliever, for two top draft picks next year. Wake up and smell the coffee, kid. This is a very solid trade for Theo.
   73. chris p Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:57 PM (#2461673)
I may be very irrational - but I think Buchholz or even Masterson would be as good as Delcarmen for the rest of the season. Certainly Buchholz.

i like masterson as a reliever, but it seems buchholz really struggles in his first inning of work ... that wouldn't work in short relief.
   74. tfbg9 Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:58 PM (#2461676)
If Dye can more or less match his career rate stat levels for the rest of 2007 as a Red Sock, I will probably like this deal. What do scouts say about him, Dye? His problems this year seem to be mostly BABIP issues, as per FanGraphs (a useful site). Last year, everything he hit in the air seemed to carry out of the park so we can't expect anything like '06, but his 2007 power and line drive data are about in line with a typical year for him, mid 30's in doubles, high 20's in HR's; in other words, his singles have not been falling in this year, so maybe he's just been Lugo'd all year? His BB rate's kind of lowish for him, and he's 33, an age where a lot of really good ballplayers suddenly Age.

Manny D. strikes people out. I like that too.

I've felt most of the year that we need another bat.
   75. chris p Posted: July 30, 2007 at 05:59 PM (#2461678)
In short, the Sox upgraded from Wily Mo to Dye, and traded Delcarmen, a generic middle reliever, for two top draft picks next year. Wake up and smell the coffee, kid. This is a very solid trade for Theo.

if that's the trade, i agree. is delcarmen even a generic middle reliever? he's put a couple good months together ... that's it. sell high.
   76. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:00 PM (#2461679)
One, it's silly yo assume that Dye will post sub .300 OBP for the remainder of this season. He's far more likely to post .900 OPS than .300 OBP.

How is it silly? JD Drew has stunk for almost an entire year, and we all thought he was goign to turn it around with his hot June. Jermaine Dye has had a hot month. How do we know he's turning it around?

Two, he won't accept arbitration. Three, he'll be a type A free agent.

You better be right. I'm goign to assume Dye will land a sandwich pick and a pick after that.

raded Delcarmen, a generic middle reliever

You realize Delcarmen is our 3rd best reliever right now, and he's pitching the 7th innings? Who's going to throw those innings now, Tavarez? Snyder? Timlin? Donnelly with an unknown ETA?

I wanted to Free Craig Breslow, but not at this price.
   77. JC in DC Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:02 PM (#2461683)
I thought MLB was getting rid of the compensation picks; what happened to that?
   78. 1k5v3L Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:10 PM (#2461701)
You realize Delcarmen is our 3rd best reliever right now, and he's pitching the 7th innings?


Sure, because that's how you determine the true value of relievers. In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king

Dye's line after the all star break: .318/.392/.727 1.119 OPS in 66 at bats. I say he looks to have turned the corner
   79. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:12 PM (#2461704)

Sure, because that's how you determine the true value of relievers. In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king


Oh F!@# off. He's got 74K's in 82 career innings and has only given up 4 dingers.

Dye's line after the all star break: .318/.392/.727 1.119 OPS in 66 at bats. I say he looks to have turned the corner

OOOOOHHHHH!!!! 66 AB'S!!!! HE'S BACK AND BADDER THAN EVER!!!!

We thought JD Drew had turned the corner too with an .950 OPS in June.
   80. chris p Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:13 PM (#2461706)
You realize Delcarmen is our 3rd best reliever right now, and he's pitching the 7th innings?



Sure, because that's how you determine the true value of relievers. In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king


not even. 3rd best? whoa! then he MUST be good!
   81. chris p Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:14 PM (#2461709)
btw, levski, i'm trying to ignore wok, so could you stop quoting him?
   82. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:15 PM (#2461710)
Dye's line after the all star break: .318/.392/.727 1.119 OPS in 66 at bats. I say he looks to have turned the corner
Right, so a team with an open corner outfield slot should pay a lot for Dye. I totally agree.

The Red Sox, though, are buying him as a 4th outfielder. Unless the plan is to bench Drew, this is strange.

The #3 reliever in the bullpen is more valuable than the 4th outfielder. Why would you trade your #3 reliever for an upgrade at 4th outfielder?

Obviously in the abstract, Jermaine Dye is worth at least Manny D and Wily Mo. The problem is that the Red Sox aren't the abstract, the Red Sox are a team with 15 million dollar contracts at each of RF, LF and DH.
   83. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:18 PM (#2461712)

btw, levski, i'm trying to ignore wok, so could you stop quoting him?


Then put me on ignore and quit whining jackass.


not even. 3rd best? whoa! then he MUST be good!


Who would you want throwing Manny D innings right now? Tavarez? Snyder? Timlin?
   84. 1k5v3L Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:20 PM (#2461716)
Sorry, chris p, I didn't understand I was supposed to ignore him.

Theo & Co. must have decided that offense is a greater need than pitching (especially a reliever) going into the stretch run. It's a lot easier to replace your third or fourth best reliever than to upgrade with someone like Dye. With Schilling back and Lester in the rotation, the Sox can move Sicko in the bullpen, and Gabba Gabba Hey can also be slotted in there as the long reliever. And guys like Delcarmen, believe it or not, are fungible (to quote Gammo).
   85. tfbg9 Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:21 PM (#2461718)
If one of Papi, Manny or Drew, gets hurt, then MCOA's objections and reservations go away, no?
   86. tfbg9 Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:24 PM (#2461722)
Hey oil's fungible too, but try telling that to the Afrika Corps! :)
   87. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:26 PM (#2461724)
If one of Papi, Manny or Drew, gets hurt, then MCOA's objections and reservations go away, no?

I'm not saying Jermaine Dye woudlnt' help us. His 110 *OPS+ line against lefties this year would help us. If Papi needs an extended DL (something I've advocated), I'd put Dye in LF, Drew in RF, and Manny at DH.

Somebody explain to me how giving Manny D's innings to Tavarez/Timlin/Snyder won't be a disaster waiting to happen. And somebody give me a concrete explanation on how Manny D's value is so little. Don't give me this "fungible" krap. Explain to me how a reliever with his numbers, stuff, and age/price is supposed to be "easily replaceble".
   88. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:27 PM (#2461726)
Good rule of thumb for internet baseball discussion: ignore the guy saying relievers are "fungible".
If one of Papi, Manny or Drew, gets hurt, then MCOA's objections and reservations go away, no?
That's fair enough. I will say that doing it for one 15-day DL stint with little to no effect on October wouldn't be worth it. One of those guys better go down hard.

I mean, for hte trade to work. Not, like, in general.
   89. 1k5v3L Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:29 PM (#2461729)
Explain to me how a reliever with his numbers, stuff, and age/price is supposed to be "easily replaceble".


You just import a random reliever from Japan. Just make sure to administer some psychological tests to ensure he doesn't sound like IronChef Wok. Otherwise, you're going to have a chicken with its head cut off running around in the clubhouse after the first home run he gives up.
   90. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:30 PM (#2461731)
I think the Red Sox are in "what could screw this thing up" mode. An injury to any of the folks tfbg9 mentions derails the ship. So too does an injury to Varitek, which is why I am surprised they did not step up more for Salty. I now look for them to make a play for Melhuse, Laird or another 2nd tier C.

Other than that, I think they have pretty good internal solutions to the problems that could come about. There are enough live arms to replace MDC, Cora is solid enough to fill in at middle infield, Dye being able to play 1st covers injuries there and at 3rd, depth in PAW allows for an injury in the rotation.

With this rationale, the Dye deal makes sense. Sporting the game's best record and having as legit a shot at the 2007 WS title as anyone, trading some future talent for depth and injury insurance is a good move.
   91. chris p Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:30 PM (#2461733)
That's fair enough. I will say that doing it for one 15-day DL stint with little to no effect on October wouldn't be worth it. One of those guys better go down hard.

well, it also depends on how convinced you are that mdc's last month or so is for real. the curveball/fastball combo is nice ... when he can control both.
   92. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:31 PM (#2461734)
You just import a random reliever from Japan.

RANDOM reliever? He just came of a great year winning the NPB Championship with the Ham Fighters, where he had a career year! And he picked up a new pitch which has really helped him, not to mention an "unorthodox" delivery which is probably smoke and mirrors.

Speaking of Japanese relievers, we should get Kobayashi. That guy is awesome in Japan.
   93. 1k5v3L Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:35 PM (#2461739)
Well, he was a random reliever to me, and 99% of Red Sox Nation as well. Not everyone on this side of the Pacific keeps up with the Japanese league. The Red Sox do, and they're benefiting.
   94. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:38 PM (#2461749)
Sully's is the most convincing argument I've seen for this trade. I'm still skeptical, though.

-I don't like these bald assertions of the existence of equally good #3 relievers - even if one exists, how many medium- and high-leverage innings of #### will we have to sort through before he emerges?

-Dye's played one game at 1st in his MLB career - is he and not Hinske really the most likely choice in event of emergency?

-How good is Masterson? If it isn't Manny D, I can see the case for trading Masterson, a guy with quite a few really big question marks on his resume - but the Sox have to be confident enough in ignoring the exclamation points he's put on his AA career.

-How likely are the Sox to lose one of Manny or Papi for a significant period of time? Drew's been bad enough that replacing him with Ellsbury/Murphy probably wouldn't kill the team. I don't know how the equation works, but Manny/Papi insurance is pricey, with a low likelihood of use.

-How's Dye going to be used? This would be a real test for Tito, who has shown in the past that he loves simple structure in playing time and has managed almost no PT rotations. Dye would necessitate such a rotation.
   95. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:39 PM (#2461751)
I've got a Japanese Satellite dish, I try to watch one NPB game a week, and maybe spot a reliever that can help the Sox. I also really enjoy when the Japanese National Team puts out their full lineup.

Edit: I thank whomever granted us the power of Edit in Therapy.

-How's Dye going to be used? This would be a real test for Tito, who has shown in the past that he loves simple structure in playing time and has managed almost no PT rotations. Dye would necessitate such a rotation.

Francona is not up to this. He's just not that smart.

-How likely are the Sox to lose one of Manny or Papi for a significant period of time? Drew's been bad enough that replacing him with Ellsbury/Murphy probably wouldn't kill the team. I don't know how the equation works, but Manny/Papi insurance is pricey, with a low likelihood of use.

I think Papi will need an extended DL visit, which I will support 100%. Manny DHing will reduce his wear and tear and improve outfield OF, which I again, will support. What I will not support right now is giving up Masterson or giving Manny D innings to Tavarez, Timlin, nor Snyder.
   96. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:40 PM (#2461753)
I'm smart enough to know that I'm wrong a lot so I read a lot more than I post on here. My first thoughts are usually, "Wait, that's not true...." and if I post that first thought, I'm immediately corrected and by the time I'm usually able to to articulate a coherent response and do quick research to back up my statements, someone has already beaten me to the punch with the point I'm trying to make. That's something I admire about the vast majority of posters on this site so I rarely post at all and instead just watch and listen (and learn) to you guys.

But seriously, Wok, you make me question why I even bother looking at message boards at all if people are going to be all, HAY F#$* OFF JACKASS YOUR STUPID PUT ME ON IGNORE IF U DON'T LIKE IT SO SHUTUP DAMMIT. I know we're all just faceless handles on here and I don't know you from Adam Stern but dude, you seem to have this immature hostility that's not a little disturbing.
   97. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:44 PM (#2461755)
But seriously, Wok, you make me question why I even bother looking at message boards at all if people are going to be all, HAY F#$* OFF JACKASS YOUR STUPID PUT ME ON IGNORE IF U DON'T LIKE IT SO SHUTUP DAMMIT. I know we're all just faceless handles on here and I don't know you from Adam Stern but dude, you seem to have this immature hostility that's not a little disturbing.

ChrisP's been on my ass for awhile. He was also the first to be hostile, so I merely told him to shove it.

That being said, you should post more. I like your posts.

It IS 3:15 am here. And I'm HOPPED UP ON STEROIDS BABY!!!
   98. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:55 PM (#2461768)
-I don't like these bald assertions of the existence of equally good #3 relievers - even if one exists, how many medium- and high-leverage innings of #### will we have to sort through before he emerges?

I mean, if all else fails, Buc will be fine. And Timlin has been great for a while too now.

-Dye's played one game at 1st in his MLB career - is he and not Hinske really the most likely choice in event of emergency?

For whatever reason, they are really confident in his ability to play 1st.

-How good is Masterson? If it isn't Manny D, I can see the case for trading Masterson, a guy with quite a few really big question marks on his resume - but the Sox have to be confident enough in ignoring the exclamation points he's put on his AA career.

Masterson is really good, but so are a bunch of other Sox farmhands. If you want Jermaine Dye, you have to give more than WMP.

How likely are the Sox to lose one of Manny or Papi for a significant period of time? Drew's been bad enough that replacing him with Ellsbury/Murphy probably wouldn't kill the team. I don't know how the equation works, but Manny/Papi insurance is pricey, with a low likelihood of use.

But you're trying to win a championship. Insurance is not that pricey. Championship insurance is.

How's Dye going to be used? This would be a real test for Tito, who has shown in the past that he loves simple structure in playing time and has managed almost no PT rotations. Dye would necessitate such a rotation.

Maybe a Papi DL stint to start. Platoon w/ Drew. Spell Papi every now and then against LHP as well. Spell Youk and Lowell once each every other week or so. Spell Manny too.
   99. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:59 PM (#2461776)
Championship insurance is.

Championship Insurance is Johan Santana (i'm being facetious, but you get my point. Jermaine Dye guarentees a championship? Jermaine Dye doesn't even guarentee a playoff spot)
   100. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: July 30, 2007 at 07:02 PM (#2461785)
Wok - you are way too down on Dye.

He is 33 and has a recent track record vacillating anywhere between MVP candidate and very good. He had a rough start to 2007. Big deal.
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