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   1. Joel W Posted: July 25, 2009 at 03:13 AM (#3266490)
I was going to respond in the other thread about my thoughts on the Laroche deal wrt Lowell, but I'll put them here to get the party started (oh to be young...and in your hometown for the weekend).

MCA said, "Or maybe this suggests that the Tito and Theo think that Mike Lowell will be able to recover and be an effective enough fielder and runner that he deserves to start. (This would then be reminiscent of the Mientkiewicz / Millar deal of '04, where we all were convinced that the trade could make sense because Millar sucked and Minky was an improvement, but then Millar went on a nice little tear and Mientkiewicz became an expensive Dave Stapleton.)"

I agree. I think the other hope is that not playing every day will make him better on the days he does play, at least in the field.

I hope we make a big splash, but I'm frankly content overall if we don't. This is still a damn good team, with very good pitching, and an offense that leaves something to be desired 50% of the time--while crushing the ball the other half of the time. Without a trade, the Sox still win 95 games, and still make the playoffs 75% of the time, and if they can't make the playoffs with 95 wins, well then, that just sucks.
   2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 25, 2009 at 03:37 AM (#3266497)
Brad Penny was kind of awesome tonight. His fastball sat 95-98, and he was breaking off a good curveball. More and more nights he seems to have that stuff = I think he'll be an above average pitcher the rest of the way home. I'm also bizarrely optimistic about Smoltz. He looks very similar to what he was before the injury, and his component numbers back up that observation.

If the rotation is in good shape, then as Darren says, after the LaRoche trade, the interesting deal the Sox would be likely to make would be for a superstar. Which would be Halladay. I'm not opposed to trading Buchholz for Halladay. If that were the cost, I think it would be a good trade for the Sox. I have no idea what the cost would actually be, but Buchholz seems like the chit everyone wants, and Halladay's as good as pitchers get.

On boring trades, Jed Lowrie is not exactly impressing with the bat, still. So a SS is still a possibility.

Mike Lowell still looks to me like he can neither run nor field. I expect LaRoche to start tomorrow, but I think we'll learn a lot from the lineup on Sunday - if it's Lowell then LaRoche is a bench guy, if it's LaRoche then it's a genuine job sharing. The in-game discussion on NESN and LaRoche's interview suggested to me (a) that LaRoche is probably going to be a bench player and (b) that Adam LaRoche just gets uglier and uglier the more you look at him.
   3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 25, 2009 at 03:42 AM (#3266499)
Fly was whining in the game thread about trading Papelbon, and I think it's a case of paying way too much attention to results. The walk was the fault of dumb pitch-calling - back to back sliders forced the count to 3-1 on Reimold for no good reason - and Papelbon's fastball was riding and nasty, generating two swinging Ks and one broken bat popout. Adam Jones and Nick Markakis both put great swings on tough pitches, especially Jones, the fastball he roped to center pops up 95% of big league hitters. It was, to me, another outing in which Papelbon looked like the Papelbon of old.
   4. Joel W Posted: July 25, 2009 at 03:59 AM (#3266505)
MCA, thanks for that, all I saw was that he had loaded the bases. I essentially score pop-ups as Ks, so that was a pretty dominating night. He seems like the old Paps of late. Now if we could only get Francona to start using Bard in the 8th in games like this (the kid has 17Ks, 0BBs, and 2 hits in 8 2/3rds this month).

I agree on Penny. I've been really high on him lately, previous start to tonight notwithstanding. He's been an above average pitcher since May 1, and is only getting better I think. Smoltz, the peripherals are there, but who knows. I hope so. Regardless, the pitching staff is very very good, as is the bullpen. No reason to think they won't have ridiculous run prevention for the rest of the year (especially if they keep Mike Lowell off the field). It's all a matter of the bats showing up.
   5. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 25, 2009 at 04:06 AM (#3266507)
If Brad Penny finishes the year with the Red Sox what are the chances he will become a type B FA?
   6. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 25, 2009 at 05:05 AM (#3266522)
(the kid has 17Ks, 0BBs, and 2 hits in 8 2/3rds this month)

I knew he had been doing well but didn't know the actual numbers. Wow.
   7. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 25, 2009 at 11:29 AM (#3266589)
Now if we could only get Francona to start using Bard in the 8th in games like this (the kid has 17Ks, 0BBs, and 2 hits in 8 2/3rds this month).
I like Dan Bard, but Hideki Okajima is one of the ten best relievers in the league. He's been in baseball for three seasons, and his career ERA+ is 181.
   8. Joel W Posted: July 25, 2009 at 11:35 AM (#3266592)
That's a good point about Oki. I forget how good he is sometimes. Still, I know Francona is handling Bard with care after the Cla Meridith debacle, but it would be nice if he could get him a bit more levered.
   9. Raskolnikov Posted: July 25, 2009 at 11:59 AM (#3266595)
I'm not opposed to trading Buchholz for Halladay.

How generous of you, MCoA.
   10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 25, 2009 at 12:06 PM (#3266599)
How generous of you, MCoA.
1) I expected snark, so it's cool.
2) I specifically stated that I don't know what Halladay would cost
3) The last Halladay-Mets thread, a deal of FMart+ was nixed by Mets fans, so y'alls is crazy

I'd be interested in what Blue Jays fans think would be a fair deal. Would Buchholz as a center piece work for them? If so, would they need a guy like Bowden or Anderson as the second prospect in the deal?

This is probably all academic, since the Red Sox are highly unlikely to make a trade like this, and the Jays don't want to trade in the division, but I think the two clubs actually match up relatively well.
   11. Raskolnikov Posted: July 25, 2009 at 12:13 PM (#3266601)
3) The last Halladay-Mets thread, a deal of FMart+ was nixed by Mets fans, so y'alls is crazy

Not all, many of them said they would do it in a heartbeat. I thought that was actually lopsided towards the Mets, but Fernando would be a deal-breaker in pretty much any deal for me, since I think he's a future superstar.


I'd be interested in what Blue Jays fans think would be a fair deal. Would Buchholz as a center piece work for them? If so, would they need a guy like Bowden or Anderson as the second prospect in the deal?


I just think that it was funny because you gave Russlan a hard time for proposing Fernando/Wilmer/Niese for Halladay. You said something to the effect of that's delusional.

Now you're asking if you'll need to *include* a 2nd prospect to get Halladay? You don't see the irony in this?
   12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 25, 2009 at 12:16 PM (#3266603)
Buchholz is so many miles better than Fernando, the comparison is useless.

You're right, though. The Red Sox don't have any minor leaguers beyond Buchholz good enough to be untouchable as the #2 in the trade. I should have articulated the question differently - what sorts of secondary prospects beyond Buchholz would be necessary? One of a Bowden / Anderson type, or more?
   13. Raskolnikov Posted: July 25, 2009 at 12:27 PM (#3266606)
Perhaps Buchholz is better than Fernando, although I can see that there's not much that's going to change your mind on that stance. But Fernando + Wilmer + Niese is unreasonable, whereas Buchholz for Halladay is reasonable? I'm trying to give you some leeway towards Red Sox centricity, but don't you think that's lopsided even taking that into account?

I think you would have to add more to a Buchholz/Bowden package. And that's counting Halladay at a discount (and not considering that TOR would be heavily disinclined towards trading Halladay within the division.)
   14. Darren Posted: July 25, 2009 at 12:27 PM (#3266607)
Too bad the Red Sox don't have an top prospect like Parnell who they could trade for Halladay. :)
   15. Raskolnikov Posted: July 25, 2009 at 12:28 PM (#3266609)
Well, you could put Bard in a package.
   16. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 25, 2009 at 12:31 PM (#3266610)
But Fernando + Wilmer + Niese is unreasonable, whereas Buchholz for Halladay is reasonable?
I honestly wasn't talking about a one-for-one trade. Buchholz is way better than any of the Red Sox prospects - and "perhaps" "perhaps" he's better than Fernando - so the secondary guys really aren't the point. Bowden and Anderson are nice, but the real question is whether a package headed by Buchholz is good enough or not.

It's moot anyway, if the Phillies are really willing to offer in the range of Happ + Drabek + Brown, the Red Sox can't match that.
   17. Raskolnikov Posted: July 25, 2009 at 12:40 PM (#3266613)
It's moot anyway, if the Phillies are really willing to offer in the range of Happ + Drabek + Brown, the Red Sox can't match that.

I hate that deal so much. And Brown and Drabek is a very nice package. If the Mets can do anything other than include Fernando, they need to sabotage this potential deal. Hell, if Halladay can't come to the Mets, then I'm rooting for him to go to Boston.
   18. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: July 25, 2009 at 01:20 PM (#3266632)
(T)he DFA of Kotsay (who has really been a poor fit for this team since last year, when he took away Casey’s spot).

Aha, that's how they made room for LaRoche. Kotsay can now go on to a second career as Vincent Gallo's double.
   19. Darren Posted: July 25, 2009 at 02:14 PM (#3266656)
Can someone explain to me the unbridled love for Drabek? He's a nice looking prospect but he's coming off surgery and he just made it to AA and everyone's talking about how the Phillies are trying to decide if they'll ever consider trading him. I don't recall reading that BA or Sickels are particularly high on him. What gives?
   20. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 25, 2009 at 02:24 PM (#3266662)
I would like Roy Hallady to kindly leave the AL. That is it.
   21. philly Posted: July 25, 2009 at 02:25 PM (#3266664)
I don't recall reading that BA or Sickels are particularly high on him. What gives?


I don't think that's quite right. There were issues about his maturity and attitude as a HS kid leading up to the draft, but he was considered to be an elite talent by just about everybody. The negativity was almost all about non-baseball stuff. I think it's true that many teams didn't want to touch the kid at all, but without those issues he would have gone right at the top of the draft.

The surgery is still a pretty big negative to me, but the story being peddled is that the long rehab helped with his maturity issues and voila he's the guy with great stuff, a healthy arm (albeit surgically repaired) and a good enough makeup to be a front of the rotation starter.

Actually, you might say that his progression in terms of makeup issues is similar to Buchholz's who also went from a guy who was probably off a lot of team's draft boards to a guy that everyone would want in their system.
   22. Phil Plantier's Famous Toilet Seat Stance Posted: July 25, 2009 at 02:50 PM (#3266683)
Listening to McAdam on the radio yesterday he repeatedly pointed out that Ricciardi isn't a Buchholz fan and seemingly has less than zero interest in him. So, if McAdam knows what he's talking about then centering a Halladay trade on Buchholz may well be a non-starter.

Frankly, while I'd love to see Halladay at Fenway I just can't see it happening, but I'm wondering...Does anyone know just what it is that other clubs seemingly see in Buchholz that makes him less attractive than the conventional high opinion people seem to have of him (both here and with mouthbreathing talk radio callers). I'm not sure it's just Ricciardi either, based on other McAdam comments alluding to Cleveland also being completely disinterested in Buchholz (for VMart).

Is this a classic case of hometown fans overrating their own prospects? I don't think that's the case here, I see a lot to like with him, but apparently there are a few people who know more than I who are a bit apprehensive. Any idea why that might be?
   23. Joel W Posted: July 25, 2009 at 03:03 PM (#3266691)
Well, he stunk last year when he came up, for an extended period of time, and it had a lot to do with mental makeup. It's possible people think he's a guy w/ great stuff who just won't put it together in the majors, and would like to see him prove it first.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 25, 2009 at 03:45 PM (#3266720)
Buchholz and Phil Hughes are basically the same guy. Hugely touted 2 years ago, both had their struggles, and now both are throwing like aces.

Would you think a package headlined by Hughes would be enough for Halladay? No, you'd think they'd need to put Montero in.

Now as a Yankee fan, I'd hate to give up Hughes, but you'd have to do it; Halladay is that good. But, no way I give up Montero and Hughes. But, if I'm Toronto, I'd insist on it, especially for the Yankees. If the Yankees or Red Sox are going to get Halladay they're going to overpay badly.

So, who do you have that's a top-25 prospect to add to Buchholz?
   25. OCD SS Posted: July 25, 2009 at 04:19 PM (#3266743)
So, who do you have that's a top-25 prospect to add to Buchholz?


Lars and Kelly were both on the cusp of being in the top 25, and the Sox can offer a better back end of the trade (which, let's not kid ourselves, there will be a third, and probably 4th piece) to balance out not having a guy who was in the top 3 of the latest rankings.
   26. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 25, 2009 at 04:20 PM (#3266746)
There is no chance that the Blue Jays will trade Halladay to a division rival.

-- MWE
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 25, 2009 at 04:25 PM (#3266752)
There is no chance that the Blue Jays will trade Halladay to a division rival.


Concur, for the Red Sox and Yankees. I'm not so sure they wouldn't trade with Tampa. But for the "evil empires" TOR will ask a price they'd be fools to pay (e.g. Hughes, Montero, Jackson).
   28. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 25, 2009 at 04:36 PM (#3266757)
Buchholz is way better than any of the Red Sox prospects - and "perhaps" "perhaps" he's better than Fernando - so the secondary guys really aren't the point.


With all the injury issues Martinez has had I'd say Buchholz is at the very least much more valuable as a trade chip.

I don't recall reading that BA or Sickels are particularly high on him. What gives?


BA ranked him #24 overall earlier this month.
   29. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: July 25, 2009 at 05:02 PM (#3266781)
(This would then be reminiscent of the Mientkiewicz / Millar deal of '04, where we all were convinced that the trade could make sense because Millar sucked and Minky was an improvement,

What? After a hot July, Millar was hitting well when the trade was made.
   30. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 25, 2009 at 05:56 PM (#3266821)
The argument - I think MGL made it at the time - was that Millar and Mientkiewicz project as about equivalent hitters, but Mientkiewicz was saving 10-15 runs that Millar was letting in with his glove.

And with Millar, his hot July was really just 5 crazy days in late July. I think there was a more negative perception of his bat because apart from Jul 20-25th, he didn't really hit in July, either. (This doesn't justify missing that Millar was hitting well, but I think it explains the general negative feeling toward Millar at the time.)
   31. John DiFool2 Posted: July 25, 2009 at 07:56 PM (#3266949)
Does anyone know just what it is that other clubs seemingly see in Buchholz that makes him less attractive than the conventional high opinion people seem to have of him (both here and with mouthbreathing talk radio callers). I'm not sure it's just Ricciardi either, based on other McAdam comments alluding to Cleveland also being completely disinterested in Buchholz (for VMart).


Well, aside from the natural tendency to downplay the value of a potential acquisition (so as to get the other team to add more to the pot), Clay's almost wholesale junking of his curve may be part of it (both in the sense of him hardly throwing it anymore, and the inexplicable changes in what used to be his best out pitch).
   32. Josh Posted: July 25, 2009 at 09:53 PM (#3267035)
Clay hasn't junked his curve. He was throwing in while in AAA. He didn't have a feel for it, according to Tito's press conference, and so he didn't throw it recently. That isn't a trend - its an adjustment.

I assume people don't like Clay if they don't like his make-up. Its a reasonable reason to think he won't be able to have sustained success. I don't believe it, but its reasonable.
   33. Dr. Vaux Posted: July 25, 2009 at 10:22 PM (#3267055)
I thought that his giving up only 3 runs in Texas was a good sign.
   34. Darren Posted: July 26, 2009 at 02:45 AM (#3267218)
Thanks Philly. The latest Rosenthal piece says Drabek, Brown, and Happ will do it. Happ's good and in the Majors. But the other 2 are basically in A ball or just out of it. This a really weak deal that Philly should jump on. I just can't believe that Riccardi would do this for so little ML-ready talent.

I agree with those who say that Halladay won't likely go in the division, although I'd argue that TB is just as unlikely to receive him as Boston and NY are. Tampa Bay becoming better just makes the "no one can compete in the AL East" story seem less true and would put one more team between the Jays and the top of the division.
   35. OCD SS Posted: July 26, 2009 at 02:21 PM (#3267337)
The tribe apparently turned down Masterson, Bowden, + a minor league OFer for VMart (according to Carfado).

Sounds like LaRoche is going to have to solve the offense's problems...
   36. Joel W Posted: July 26, 2009 at 03:11 PM (#3267358)
Good start for LaRoche last night...I had forgotten that it will also be nice to get Youkilis a day off once and awhile. The way that home run went over the Monster, I wonder if anybody has done a LaRoche hit chart analysis. Possible Fenway hitter?
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 26, 2009 at 03:23 PM (#3267370)
I agree with those who say that Halladay won't likely go in the division, although I'd argue that TB is just as unlikely to receive him as Boston and NY are. Tampa Bay becoming better just makes the "no one can compete in the AL East" story seem less true and would put one more team between the Jays and the top of the division.

Well, if they trade Halladay Toronto is not competing in 2010. If they think TB can't/won't resign Halladay, maybe they figure he won't be an issue by the time they're competitive. The Yanks or Sox would almost certainly extend him.
   38. Darren Posted: July 26, 2009 at 08:42 PM (#3267610)
I'm just saying that as far as appearances go, it would look really bad to have Tampa springing past the Jays (with Halladay) into the mix for the division/WC.
   39. Darren Posted: July 26, 2009 at 08:57 PM (#3267641)
Robothal: Red Sox going after Halladay

Major league sources told FOXSports.com on Sunday that Boston and Toronto remain engaged in trade discussions centered on Halladay. The talks are serious enough that the Jays made a formal, multiple-prospect request during negotiations over the past several days.


Headline sounds more interesting than the content of the article.
   40. jmurph Posted: July 26, 2009 at 09:18 PM (#3267655)
Via MLB Trade Rumors, Robo also has Lee and Martinez possibly going to the Dodgers in exchange for Loney, one of Kershaw/Billingsley, and prospects. That seems to me like too much for the best team in the NL to give up, especially with Martin already behind the plate.
   41. jmurph Posted: July 26, 2009 at 09:20 PM (#3267658)
The talks are serious enough that the Jays made a formal, multiple-prospect request during negotiations over the past several days.


What's the guess? Buccholz, Bowden, Lars, and one more. Reddick? I imagine Toronto would ask for a lot from Boston or NY.
   42. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 26, 2009 at 09:25 PM (#3267662)
If the Dodgers trade either one of those pitchers they are crazy.
   43. nick swisher hygiene Posted: July 26, 2009 at 09:26 PM (#3267663)
40--Would you rather have Cliff Lee's next 50 starts over either Kershaw's or Billingsley's? I wouldn't....
   44. jmurph Posted: July 26, 2009 at 09:29 PM (#3267664)
40--Would you rather have Cliff Lee's next 50 starts over either Kershaw's or Billingsley's? I wouldn't....


I'm with you. The Martinez thing doesn't make any sense, either.
   45. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 26, 2009 at 09:45 PM (#3267672)
Those two guys are 10 and 11 in strikeouts per nine innings. Kershaw leads the league in fewest hits per nine innings ans Billingsley is 12th.

I will stop there. If Coletti thinks Cliff Lee is better than these guys in a substantial way he's ill-suited for his job.
   46. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 26, 2009 at 10:10 PM (#3267686)
I will say the Angels going for Halladay makes sense. Nobody has noticed but LA is scoring 5.5 runs per game. Some of that may be regarded as fluke but it's clear that run scoring is not an issue. Better to focus on run prevention.
   47. Darren Posted: July 26, 2009 at 10:17 PM (#3267689)
Cliff Lee has been one of the top, what, 3-4 SP in the American League over the past 2 years. Kershaw's still figuring it out and still walks way too many batters, despite his other exciting attributes. Billingsley, you might have a better argument for.

Both are excellent prospects, but Lee is better than you think, especially if you apply any kind of importance to DIPS.
   48. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 26, 2009 at 10:23 PM (#3267691)
Darren:

I wrote substantial in that I don't believe getting Lee pushes the team that much further forward.

I like Lee. Good pitcher. But the Dodgers have one of the best staffs in the league. Is sacrificing a pitcher like Clayton or Chad really going to make a notable difference?

I do not believe so.
   49. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 26, 2009 at 10:24 PM (#3267692)
And these guys are no longer prospects in that they have passed through the first trial by fire quite well.
   50. Darren Posted: July 26, 2009 at 10:35 PM (#3267695)
Understood, Harvey. I think that the idea of this trade isn't so ridiculous. It would be understandable if, considering how they've performed and the leagues they pitch in, that someone would think Lee is considerably better than either of those guys. Factor in age and it's a lot more likely that Lee finishes the season strong (the other 2 are young enough to fade or need limits on their innings).

And it's more than just Lee. You also get Martinez, who's a lot better hitter than Loney is currently and probably for a while.
   51. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 26, 2009 at 10:52 PM (#3267702)
is he?
V-Mart is 30, a poor defender at two positions, has an injury history, has been a catcher for a decade, and can be really streaky and owed big $.

I'm not sure it's worth it
   52. Darren Posted: July 26, 2009 at 10:57 PM (#3267704)
I'm not sure they're worth it either. But I'm not as sure that they're not as others here seem to be.
   53. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 26, 2009 at 11:02 PM (#3267706)
It's an odd deal, kinda weird you know?

Olney says sox going after A-Gone from SD.
   54. Darren Posted: July 26, 2009 at 11:20 PM (#3267714)
Gonzalez is a great player (GREAT!), and if he's at all available, the Red Sox should pay just about whatever it takes to get him.
   55. Textbook Editor Posted: July 26, 2009 at 11:21 PM (#3267717)
Would LaRoche be part of an A-Gone deal? It would seem like he'd have to be, or else there's be a heck of a lot of 1B-types on the roster...
   56. Textbook Editor Posted: July 26, 2009 at 11:23 PM (#3267720)
#54--great and really cheap, all things considered. A huge upgrade over Lowell for the next 2 months, I think, but then do we eat the Lowell contract next year?
   57. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 26, 2009 at 11:25 PM (#3267721)
Gonzalez has hit an OPS of .907 away from Petco in his career.

On a seasonal note he has hit 5 homers and driven in 15 runs since June 1st. But that's because he has been walked 47 times in that timeframe. Opponents are simply avoiding him.
   58. Raskolnikov Posted: July 26, 2009 at 11:31 PM (#3267732)
What's the guess? Buccholz, Bowden, Lars, and one more. Reddick? I imagine Toronto would ask for a lot from Boston or NY.

As a Mets fan who may have to switch allegiances so long as Tony B is with the organization, I fully support this trade on all fronts.

Halladay, Lester, Beckett, Smoltz. Good to go.
   59. Darren Posted: July 26, 2009 at 11:53 PM (#3267747)
What about Smoltz qualifies as 'good to go?' Good to go to hell in hand basket?
   60. puck Posted: July 26, 2009 at 11:53 PM (#3267749)
Opponents are simply avoiding him.


It must be a bit depressing to be there as well. Then to add injury to insult his brother got hit in the head and went on the DL.
   61. Dr. Vaux Posted: July 27, 2009 at 12:01 AM (#3267757)
Smoltz is no good.
   62. Textbook Editor Posted: July 27, 2009 at 12:41 AM (#3267792)
When Wakefield comes off the DL, it will be interesting to see what happens/who gets bumped.
   63. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 27, 2009 at 06:54 AM (#3268058)
it has to be Smoltz right?

I used to love these little "pick up a vet on his last legs" type moves, but I'm trying to hard to think of the last one that worked out well, at leas the "AAAA guy who'll probably fail" moves are cheap.
   64. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 27, 2009 at 07:21 AM (#3268070)
Can Nick Green/Jed play well defensively at short?

Laroche at 1st and Youkilis at 3rd with Jed/Green defensive subbing in later innings sounds adequate. Laroche is not kotsay, and we used that to get to the 7th game of the ALCS
   65. Mattbert Posted: July 27, 2009 at 12:44 PM (#3268143)
If the Dodgers trade either one of those pitchers they are crazy.

Seriously. The Dodgers are about as secure a lock to make the playoffs as you can get at this stage of the season, so they don't really need Lee for the stretch run. So the real question is, how much more likely is Lee to win a handful of playoff starts than Billingsley or Kershaw?

I think the upgrade from either of those two guys to Cliff Lee, if it’s an upgrade at all, is small enough to be ignored when all we’re really talking about is somewhere between one and seven playoff starts. And the Dodgers would be giving up a guy who’s going to be damn good (and cheap) for years to come. Billingsley is already a 200-inning 200-K horse, and Kershaw has a chance to be really special if he improves his control a tick or two. Makes no sense to me to give up either one of them.

I advocated strongly that the Angels should trade for Mark Teixeira last year, when they were in a similar situation: comfortable division lead, nailed on for the playoffs. However, Tex was a massive upgrade to the Angels offense (which was poor) in a playoff series, whereas Lee is probably more of a lateral move for the Dodgers rotation (which is a lot better than poor).

Yes, of course they’d be getting V-Mart as part of the deal as well, but Loney isn’t a liability at all. And he’s five years younger than V-Mart. I’m not convinced that the upgrade there is worth the potential future cost either.
   66. Nasty Nate Posted: July 27, 2009 at 01:40 PM (#3268214)
I had a weird dream last night that the Sox traded Laroche and Bard for Shane Victorino. Also in the dream Coco Crisp (?) was pitching the 9th in a 4-2 win and I went out drinking beer and smoking cigarettes with Francona after the game.
   67. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: July 27, 2009 at 01:47 PM (#3268227)
Also in the dream Coco Crisp (?) was pitching the 9th in a 4-2 win and I went out drinking beer and smoking cigarettes with Francona after the game.


Did he get the save?
   68. Joel W Posted: July 27, 2009 at 01:47 PM (#3268229)
That's a great dream Nate.

As to Smoltz: His K/BB is still quite good, and you could see him getting mad at all the balls getting through. He's getting swings and misses, which I take as positive. Still, he was getting hit really hard when he was getting hit, so it's possible that the BABIP isn't an aberration, but more like when a pitcher is hurt and they're getting beat up and then they go on the DL. Perhaps he needs more time rehabbing?

As to Wake coming of the DL, are we sure we can expect it to happen very soon? And if it does, that he will be any good? He has been awful the past couple years post-DL.
   69. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: July 27, 2009 at 01:50 PM (#3268236)
Gonzalez has hit an OPS of .907 away from Petco in his career.


If that is an accurate reflection of his value, then he really isn't worth the bounty in prospects. .907 OPS is good but it isn't worth a massive haul, since the guy can only play 1B.
   70. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: July 27, 2009 at 01:51 PM (#3268240)
I had a weird dream last night that the Sox traded Laroche and Bard for Shane Victorino. Also in the dream Coco Crisp (?) was pitching the 9th in a 4-2 win and I went out drinking beer and smoking cigarettes with Francona after the game.
Something tells me that this is how Gammons writes his columns.
   71. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: July 27, 2009 at 01:59 PM (#3268251)
Gonzalez has hit an OPS of .907 away from Petco in his career.


If that is an accurate reflection of his value, then he really isn't worth the bounty in prospects. .907 OPS is good but it isn't worth a massive haul, since the guy can only play 1B.


But most players (not all obviously) play a bit better at home. If Gonzalez is a true .907 road hitter and the league average is to improve by 5-7% at home then you're looking at a guy who, in a "fair" park, is looking to post about a .960 OPS resulting in a .935 OPS overall. That would be 7th in the AL right now admittedly behind 3 1st baseman (Youk, Cabrera, Morneau, Teixeira is .934).

From the Red Sox perspective though you'd get the .930 OPS at 1st AND a .950 or so OPS at 3rd by moving Youkilis which is a huge upgrade. Even if you put him at the .907 level that still would be a pretty big net gain and in a lineup that is heavily right-handed he would be a pretty nice fit.
   72. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: July 27, 2009 at 02:05 PM (#3268263)
From the Red Sox perspective though you'd get the .930 OPS at 1st AND a .950 or so OPS at 3rd by moving Youkilis which is a huge upgrade. Even if you put him at the .907 level that still would be a pretty big net gain and in a lineup that is heavily right-handed he would be a pretty nice fit.


I suppose that's true. Now that I'm thinking about it, it may also be true that Pads ownership wants to move salary at any cost. If the Sox kick in some cash, maybe SD would accept a bit less talent prospect-wise.

Sorry Pads fans--right now, your team is in the worst position on the planet. At least once the new ownership fully takes over, things should improve (they'd have to, right?).
   73. Joel W Posted: July 27, 2009 at 02:07 PM (#3268269)
It's not just that, he's at worst an average fielder, and just turned 27 this season. He's 6th in the NL in OPS+. He never misses games. I don't think there's a chance they get him, but Adrian Gonzalez is one of those players that you kill to get.
   74. Mattbert Posted: July 27, 2009 at 02:28 PM (#3268305)
Gonzalez would be a fine addition, but I wonder how serious the Sox are about getting him since we just bagged LaRoche. Maybe that was the plan all along; get the LaRoche deal done quickly and cheaply to increase our leverage when negotiating with the Padres. If things don’t work out on the Gonzalez front, then at least we’re not totally screwed. Also, would they want LaRoche as part of a potential deal if the Sox ate most or all of his salary? I don’t know if that would be attractive to them at all or whether they’d just say, don’t bother we’ll take another prospect instead.
   75. plim Posted: July 27, 2009 at 04:07 PM (#3268478)
But most players (not all obviously) play a bit better at home. If Gonzalez is a true .907 road hitter and the league average is to improve by 5-7% at home then you're looking at a guy who, in a "fair" park, is looking to post about a .960 OPS resulting in a .935 OPS overall. That would be 7th in the AL right now admittedly behind 3 1st baseman (Youk, Cabrera, Morneau, Teixeira is .934).


let's also not forget that the NL west sits on the extremes of hitters/pitchers parks with LA, SD and SF being notorious pitchers' parks and COL, AZ being notorious hitters' parks, so even a good majority of his away games are still in notorious pitchers' parks.

the fact that he's hit 30+ hr in the last 2 years (and 32+ 2b) while hitting primarily in petco is nothing short of remarkable.

And he's only 27.
   76. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: July 27, 2009 at 04:25 PM (#3268512)
Tazawa up to Pawtucket.
   77. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 28, 2009 at 02:42 AM (#3269872)
Maybe we shoudl call for David Wright. The Mets are a joke right now, they were days away from having a Lugo-Cora tandem at middle IF
   78. Joel W Posted: July 28, 2009 at 03:47 AM (#3269984)
Because I can't get enough Daniel Bard in my life, his current streak: 11 1/3, 20Ks, 0 BBs, 3 hits.
   79. Darren Posted: July 28, 2009 at 03:51 AM (#3269987)
Tazawa to Pawtucket was due. I would think they'd have been glad if he could have tread water this year at AA. He's really doing well. Same for Doubront.

And yes Joel, Bard is a just ton o' fun.
   80. Joel W Posted: July 28, 2009 at 04:13 AM (#3270009)
If I don't see a Sox game, one thing I make sure to do is see Bard's inning on MLB.TV. The amount of silly he makes hitters look is great. I never would have thought I'd consider Papelbon so expendable, but that's how he makes me feel, and Papelbon has been really good despite all of our griping.

Now, if only this LaRoche thing were real....

As for Tazawa, where does he fit in the plans for the team? Finish out the year at Pawtucket, start there next year, and spot start if the team needs it, becoming a full time starter in 2011?
   81. JB H Posted: July 28, 2009 at 12:10 PM (#3270107)
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/red-sox/alex-speier/2009/07/28/worlds-apart-red-sox-and-matsuzaka-struggle-find-middle

I think this could get really ugly.
   82. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: July 28, 2009 at 12:50 PM (#3270126)
As for Tazawa, where does he fit in the plans for the team? Finish out the year at Pawtucket, start there next year, and spot start if the team needs it, becoming a full time starter in 2011?


If a perfect storm of crap happens (Smoltz continuing to suck, Buchholz not getting it done and an injury elsewhere on the staff) I can see Tazawa being a guy who pitches every fifth day by the end of August (assuming he succeeds in Pawtucket). Just reading between the lines on some stuff going back to the original signing I get the impression the organization is very high on him.
   83. Sean Forman Posted: July 28, 2009 at 02:39 PM (#3270230)
If the Sox got A-Gone. Lowell to Philly for something (Marson, reliever) might make sense.

I don't know who backs up third in that scenario.
   84. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: July 28, 2009 at 05:18 PM (#3270467)
I don't know who backs up third in that scenario.


Can Lowrie still handle 3rd defensively? Nick Green would in effect be the back-up infielder for all spots.
   85. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 28, 2009 at 05:28 PM (#3270487)
The Red Sox are apparently involved in three or four different sets of talks, likely overlapping, to produce a trade that is too complex to properly understand before it occurs. I'm just happy that Theo is still Theo, that getting a big one done last year hasn't changed him.

What's sad is that I'll be in New York, hanging out with non-baseball-fan friends on the 31st, so I won't be alone at home with NESN, internet, and beer when the deadline passes.
   86. Textbook Editor Posted: July 28, 2009 at 05:40 PM (#3270511)
Sean, Isn't Feliz basically having a career year at 3B for the Phillies? Why on earth would they trade a chip like Marson for Lowell at this point? I'm all for trying to get Marson, as we need a C for the future, but I suspect it would take more than Lowell to get it done.
   87. Joel W Posted: July 28, 2009 at 05:43 PM (#3270513)
MCA, I'd like to introduce you to Twitter and the iPhone.
   88. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 28, 2009 at 05:46 PM (#3270518)
If the Phils (or anyone else) were paying Lowell's salary, I assume they could pretty much have him for free.

EDIT (on Lowell): this is in the case where the Red Sox have acquired an All-Star 1B in trade. Lowell has real value to the Red Sox playoff roster right now, but almost none if we get Gonzo.

EDIT (to Joel): sure, I can find out what happens at the deadline, but I won't be posting and researching obsessively and trading snark with my internet friends. Sad.
   89. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: July 28, 2009 at 05:52 PM (#3270526)
Since there's no good Yankee centric thread, I was pondering today whether a Lee/Martinez blockbuster for the Sox would, given there were enough time remaining, spur the Yankees to go all out for Halladay after all (Joba, AJax, Montero).
   90. The Original SJ Posted: July 28, 2009 at 05:55 PM (#3270534)
I could see them moving AJax. I just can't see them moving Montero, unless they are convinced he would never stick at C
   91. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 28, 2009 at 05:58 PM (#3270539)
The Red Sox and Yankees don't have a lot of history of one-upsmanship at the trade deadline. I can't remember any - can you? If Theo's Smile remix happens (odds: 4-to-1), it will happen precisely at the deadline, which doesn't leave much time for a Yankee counterstrike.
   92. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: July 28, 2009 at 06:01 PM (#3270545)
How much would you give up for the Mets' Shake Shack stand? I'd say it's worth at least a B level prospect. Let's say a Lars Anderson + Sausage Guy and cash package.
   93. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 28, 2009 at 06:07 PM (#3270559)
What's sad is that I'll be in New York, hanging out with non-baseball-fan friends on the 31st, so I won't be alone at home with NESN, internet, and beer when the deadline passes.

That's nothing. I'll be in an internet-and-cable-less apartment in Washington DC unpacking on the 31st. And everyone I know in DC will be at work so I will only be able to follow the deadline through other people texting me.

I just can't see them moving Montero, unless they are convinced he would never stick at C

I will be heartbroken if they move Montero. Supposedly he's made enough improvements that some scouts think there's a glimmer of a hope that he might catch in the Majors, which is a big improvement over previous reports. He's thrown 30% of runners in AA and doesn't have an error. 7 passed balls though.
   94. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: July 28, 2009 at 06:11 PM (#3270565)
And everyone I know in DC will be at work so I will only be able to follow the deadline through other people texting me.
Well, I know how I'm spending Friday afternoon.
   95. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 28, 2009 at 06:12 PM (#3270567)
Well, excellent as it is, I wouldn't want Shake Shack precisely - part of the greatness of the new Mets stadium is that they got actual high-quality New York vendors. What I want to see are Chacarero, Flat Patties, and Famous Speed's at Fenway. Maybe Anna's too - they've got a solid combination of institution and food that's never bad.

Do any other clubs actually do what the Mets did and get real local stuff at the park? Both the Red Sox and Yankees are almost certainly too corporate to ever do that, but have other clubs?

EDIT: let's see, a Pizzeria Regina that's not one of their shitty chain expansions, but a real second location of the original, a Clam Box or a Lobster Pool, I know I'm missing something obvious...
   96. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 28, 2009 at 06:15 PM (#3270570)
Well, I know how I'm spending Friday afternoon.

Ha, I was hoping you would see that post.
   97. Joel W Posted: July 28, 2009 at 06:22 PM (#3270586)
Wow Anna's at Fenway MCA, I never thought of that, and good god, it would be perfect.

As to the food at Citi, it's just great. That whole stadium is great. Intimate, new, nice. Shake Shack is severely overrated but still good.
   98. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: July 28, 2009 at 06:25 PM (#3270591)
MCA, well done. Chacarero and Speed's would be awesome. I'd love an India Quality stand as well.
   99. Textbook Editor Posted: July 28, 2009 at 07:00 PM (#3270640)
Red Sox apparently trade for Brian Anderson of the White Sox. No word on who was dealt to get him. Here's the story:

Red Sox Trade for Brian Anderson

I'll need someone more in the know than me to explain this one... Does this mean Baldelli's hurt or something and no one's said anything about it? Or that Ellsbury may be a cog in a big deal? I'm really confused.
   100. jmurph Posted: July 28, 2009 at 07:05 PM (#3270649)
Or that Ellsbury may be a cog in a big deal? I'm really confused.


I'd say it has to be this, only I can't imagine Boston thinks Anderson can be the regular CFer. Wow. I'm lost.
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