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MCA said, "Or maybe this suggests that the Tito and Theo think that Mike Lowell will be able to recover and be an effective enough fielder and runner that he deserves to start. (This would then be reminiscent of the Mientkiewicz / Millar deal of '04, where we all were convinced that the trade could make sense because Millar sucked and Minky was an improvement, but then Millar went on a nice little tear and Mientkiewicz became an expensive Dave Stapleton.)"
I agree. I think the other hope is that not playing every day will make him better on the days he does play, at least in the field.
I hope we make a big splash, but I'm frankly content overall if we don't. This is still a damn good team, with very good pitching, and an offense that leaves something to be desired 50% of the time--while crushing the ball the other half of the time. Without a trade, the Sox still win 95 games, and still make the playoffs 75% of the time, and if they can't make the playoffs with 95 wins, well then, that just sucks.
If the rotation is in good shape, then as Darren says, after the LaRoche trade, the interesting deal the Sox would be likely to make would be for a superstar. Which would be Halladay. I'm not opposed to trading Buchholz for Halladay. If that were the cost, I think it would be a good trade for the Sox. I have no idea what the cost would actually be, but Buchholz seems like the chit everyone wants, and Halladay's as good as pitchers get.
On boring trades, Jed Lowrie is not exactly impressing with the bat, still. So a SS is still a possibility.
Mike Lowell still looks to me like he can neither run nor field. I expect LaRoche to start tomorrow, but I think we'll learn a lot from the lineup on Sunday - if it's Lowell then LaRoche is a bench guy, if it's LaRoche then it's a genuine job sharing. The in-game discussion on NESN and LaRoche's interview suggested to me (a) that LaRoche is probably going to be a bench player and (b) that Adam LaRoche just gets uglier and uglier the more you look at him.
I agree on Penny. I've been really high on him lately, previous start to tonight notwithstanding. He's been an above average pitcher since May 1, and is only getting better I think. Smoltz, the peripherals are there, but who knows. I hope so. Regardless, the pitching staff is very very good, as is the bullpen. No reason to think they won't have ridiculous run prevention for the rest of the year (especially if they keep Mike Lowell off the field). It's all a matter of the bats showing up.
I knew he had been doing well but didn't know the actual numbers. Wow.
How generous of you, MCoA.
2) I specifically stated that I don't know what Halladay would cost
3) The last Halladay-Mets thread, a deal of FMart+ was nixed by Mets fans, so y'alls is crazy
I'd be interested in what Blue Jays fans think would be a fair deal. Would Buchholz as a center piece work for them? If so, would they need a guy like Bowden or Anderson as the second prospect in the deal?
This is probably all academic, since the Red Sox are highly unlikely to make a trade like this, and the Jays don't want to trade in the division, but I think the two clubs actually match up relatively well.
Not all, many of them said they would do it in a heartbeat. I thought that was actually lopsided towards the Mets, but Fernando would be a deal-breaker in pretty much any deal for me, since I think he's a future superstar.
I'd be interested in what Blue Jays fans think would be a fair deal. Would Buchholz as a center piece work for them? If so, would they need a guy like Bowden or Anderson as the second prospect in the deal?
I just think that it was funny because you gave Russlan a hard time for proposing Fernando/Wilmer/Niese for Halladay. You said something to the effect of that's delusional.
Now you're asking if you'll need to *include* a 2nd prospect to get Halladay? You don't see the irony in this?
You're right, though. The Red Sox don't have any minor leaguers beyond Buchholz good enough to be untouchable as the #2 in the trade. I should have articulated the question differently - what sorts of secondary prospects beyond Buchholz would be necessary? One of a Bowden / Anderson type, or more?
I think you would have to add more to a Buchholz/Bowden package. And that's counting Halladay at a discount (and not considering that TOR would be heavily disinclined towards trading Halladay within the division.)
It's moot anyway, if the Phillies are really willing to offer in the range of Happ + Drabek + Brown, the Red Sox can't match that.
I hate that deal so much. And Brown and Drabek is a very nice package. If the Mets can do anything other than include Fernando, they need to sabotage this potential deal. Hell, if Halladay can't come to the Mets, then I'm rooting for him to go to Boston.
Aha, that's how they made room for LaRoche. Kotsay can now go on to a second career as Vincent Gallo's double.
I don't think that's quite right. There were issues about his maturity and attitude as a HS kid leading up to the draft, but he was considered to be an elite talent by just about everybody. The negativity was almost all about non-baseball stuff. I think it's true that many teams didn't want to touch the kid at all, but without those issues he would have gone right at the top of the draft.
The surgery is still a pretty big negative to me, but the story being peddled is that the long rehab helped with his maturity issues and voila he's the guy with great stuff, a healthy arm (albeit surgically repaired) and a good enough makeup to be a front of the rotation starter.
Actually, you might say that his progression in terms of makeup issues is similar to Buchholz's who also went from a guy who was probably off a lot of team's draft boards to a guy that everyone would want in their system.
Frankly, while I'd love to see Halladay at Fenway I just can't see it happening, but I'm wondering...Does anyone know just what it is that other clubs seemingly see in Buchholz that makes him less attractive than the conventional high opinion people seem to have of him (both here and with mouthbreathing talk radio callers). I'm not sure it's just Ricciardi either, based on other McAdam comments alluding to Cleveland also being completely disinterested in Buchholz (for VMart).
Is this a classic case of hometown fans overrating their own prospects? I don't think that's the case here, I see a lot to like with him, but apparently there are a few people who know more than I who are a bit apprehensive. Any idea why that might be?
Would you think a package headlined by Hughes would be enough for Halladay? No, you'd think they'd need to put Montero in.
Now as a Yankee fan, I'd hate to give up Hughes, but you'd have to do it; Halladay is that good. But, no way I give up Montero and Hughes. But, if I'm Toronto, I'd insist on it, especially for the Yankees. If the Yankees or Red Sox are going to get Halladay they're going to overpay badly.
So, who do you have that's a top-25 prospect to add to Buchholz?
Lars and Kelly were both on the cusp of being in the top 25, and the Sox can offer a better back end of the trade (which, let's not kid ourselves, there will be a third, and probably 4th piece) to balance out not having a guy who was in the top 3 of the latest rankings.
-- MWE
Concur, for the Red Sox and Yankees. I'm not so sure they wouldn't trade with Tampa. But for the "evil empires" TOR will ask a price they'd be fools to pay (e.g. Hughes, Montero, Jackson).
With all the injury issues Martinez has had I'd say Buchholz is at the very least much more valuable as a trade chip.
BA ranked him #24 overall earlier this month.
What? After a hot July, Millar was hitting well when the trade was made.
And with Millar, his hot July was really just 5 crazy days in late July. I think there was a more negative perception of his bat because apart from Jul 20-25th, he didn't really hit in July, either. (This doesn't justify missing that Millar was hitting well, but I think it explains the general negative feeling toward Millar at the time.)
Well, aside from the natural tendency to downplay the value of a potential acquisition (so as to get the other team to add more to the pot), Clay's almost wholesale junking of his curve may be part of it (both in the sense of him hardly throwing it anymore, and the inexplicable changes in what used to be his best out pitch).
I assume people don't like Clay if they don't like his make-up. Its a reasonable reason to think he won't be able to have sustained success. I don't believe it, but its reasonable.
I agree with those who say that Halladay won't likely go in the division, although I'd argue that TB is just as unlikely to receive him as Boston and NY are. Tampa Bay becoming better just makes the "no one can compete in the AL East" story seem less true and would put one more team between the Jays and the top of the division.
Sounds like LaRoche is going to have to solve the offense's problems...
Well, if they trade Halladay Toronto is not competing in 2010. If they think TB can't/won't resign Halladay, maybe they figure he won't be an issue by the time they're competitive. The Yanks or Sox would almost certainly extend him.
Headline sounds more interesting than the content of the article.
What's the guess? Buccholz, Bowden, Lars, and one more. Reddick? I imagine Toronto would ask for a lot from Boston or NY.
I'm with you. The Martinez thing doesn't make any sense, either.
I will stop there. If Coletti thinks Cliff Lee is better than these guys in a substantial way he's ill-suited for his job.
Both are excellent prospects, but Lee is better than you think, especially if you apply any kind of importance to DIPS.
I wrote substantial in that I don't believe getting Lee pushes the team that much further forward.
I like Lee. Good pitcher. But the Dodgers have one of the best staffs in the league. Is sacrificing a pitcher like Clayton or Chad really going to make a notable difference?
I do not believe so.
And it's more than just Lee. You also get Martinez, who's a lot better hitter than Loney is currently and probably for a while.
V-Mart is 30, a poor defender at two positions, has an injury history, has been a catcher for a decade, and can be really streaky and owed big $.
I'm not sure it's worth it
Olney says sox going after A-Gone from SD.
On a seasonal note he has hit 5 homers and driven in 15 runs since June 1st. But that's because he has been walked 47 times in that timeframe. Opponents are simply avoiding him.
As a Mets fan who may have to switch allegiances so long as Tony B is with the organization, I fully support this trade on all fronts.
Halladay, Lester, Beckett, Smoltz. Good to go.
It must be a bit depressing to be there as well. Then to add injury to insult his brother got hit in the head and went on the DL.
I used to love these little "pick up a vet on his last legs" type moves, but I'm trying to hard to think of the last one that worked out well, at leas the "AAAA guy who'll probably fail" moves are cheap.
Laroche at 1st and Youkilis at 3rd with Jed/Green defensive subbing in later innings sounds adequate. Laroche is not kotsay, and we used that to get to the 7th game of the ALCS
Seriously. The Dodgers are about as secure a lock to make the playoffs as you can get at this stage of the season, so they don't really need Lee for the stretch run. So the real question is, how much more likely is Lee to win a handful of playoff starts than Billingsley or Kershaw?
I think the upgrade from either of those two guys to Cliff Lee, if it’s an upgrade at all, is small enough to be ignored when all we’re really talking about is somewhere between one and seven playoff starts. And the Dodgers would be giving up a guy who’s going to be damn good (and cheap) for years to come. Billingsley is already a 200-inning 200-K horse, and Kershaw has a chance to be really special if he improves his control a tick or two. Makes no sense to me to give up either one of them.
I advocated strongly that the Angels should trade for Mark Teixeira last year, when they were in a similar situation: comfortable division lead, nailed on for the playoffs. However, Tex was a massive upgrade to the Angels offense (which was poor) in a playoff series, whereas Lee is probably more of a lateral move for the Dodgers rotation (which is a lot better than poor).
Yes, of course they’d be getting V-Mart as part of the deal as well, but Loney isn’t a liability at all. And he’s five years younger than V-Mart. I’m not convinced that the upgrade there is worth the potential future cost either.
Did he get the save?
As to Smoltz: His K/BB is still quite good, and you could see him getting mad at all the balls getting through. He's getting swings and misses, which I take as positive. Still, he was getting hit really hard when he was getting hit, so it's possible that the BABIP isn't an aberration, but more like when a pitcher is hurt and they're getting beat up and then they go on the DL. Perhaps he needs more time rehabbing?
As to Wake coming of the DL, are we sure we can expect it to happen very soon? And if it does, that he will be any good? He has been awful the past couple years post-DL.
If that is an accurate reflection of his value, then he really isn't worth the bounty in prospects. .907 OPS is good but it isn't worth a massive haul, since the guy can only play 1B.
But most players (not all obviously) play a bit better at home. If Gonzalez is a true .907 road hitter and the league average is to improve by 5-7% at home then you're looking at a guy who, in a "fair" park, is looking to post about a .960 OPS resulting in a .935 OPS overall. That would be 7th in the AL right now admittedly behind 3 1st baseman (Youk, Cabrera, Morneau, Teixeira is .934).
From the Red Sox perspective though you'd get the .930 OPS at 1st AND a .950 or so OPS at 3rd by moving Youkilis which is a huge upgrade. Even if you put him at the .907 level that still would be a pretty big net gain and in a lineup that is heavily right-handed he would be a pretty nice fit.
I suppose that's true. Now that I'm thinking about it, it may also be true that Pads ownership wants to move salary at any cost. If the Sox kick in some cash, maybe SD would accept a bit less talent prospect-wise.
Sorry Pads fans--right now, your team is in the worst position on the planet. At least once the new ownership fully takes over, things should improve (they'd have to, right?).
let's also not forget that the NL west sits on the extremes of hitters/pitchers parks with LA, SD and SF being notorious pitchers' parks and COL, AZ being notorious hitters' parks, so even a good majority of his away games are still in notorious pitchers' parks.
the fact that he's hit 30+ hr in the last 2 years (and 32+ 2b) while hitting primarily in petco is nothing short of remarkable.
And he's only 27.
And yes Joel, Bard is a just ton o' fun.
Now, if only this LaRoche thing were real....
As for Tazawa, where does he fit in the plans for the team? Finish out the year at Pawtucket, start there next year, and spot start if the team needs it, becoming a full time starter in 2011?
I think this could get really ugly.
If a perfect storm of crap happens (Smoltz continuing to suck, Buchholz not getting it done and an injury elsewhere on the staff) I can see Tazawa being a guy who pitches every fifth day by the end of August (assuming he succeeds in Pawtucket). Just reading between the lines on some stuff going back to the original signing I get the impression the organization is very high on him.
I don't know who backs up third in that scenario.
Can Lowrie still handle 3rd defensively? Nick Green would in effect be the back-up infielder for all spots.
What's sad is that I'll be in New York, hanging out with non-baseball-fan friends on the 31st, so I won't be alone at home with NESN, internet, and beer when the deadline passes.
EDIT (on Lowell): this is in the case where the Red Sox have acquired an All-Star 1B in trade. Lowell has real value to the Red Sox playoff roster right now, but almost none if we get Gonzo.
EDIT (to Joel): sure, I can find out what happens at the deadline, but I won't be posting and researching obsessively and trading snark with my internet friends. Sad.
That's nothing. I'll be in an internet-and-cable-less apartment in Washington DC unpacking on the 31st. And everyone I know in DC will be at work so I will only be able to follow the deadline through other people texting me.
I just can't see them moving Montero, unless they are convinced he would never stick at C
I will be heartbroken if they move Montero. Supposedly he's made enough improvements that some scouts think there's a glimmer of a hope that he might catch in the Majors, which is a big improvement over previous reports. He's thrown 30% of runners in AA and doesn't have an error. 7 passed balls though.
Do any other clubs actually do what the Mets did and get real local stuff at the park? Both the Red Sox and Yankees are almost certainly too corporate to ever do that, but have other clubs?
EDIT: let's see, a Pizzeria Regina that's not one of their shitty chain expansions, but a real second location of the original, a Clam Box or a Lobster Pool, I know I'm missing something obvious...
Ha, I was hoping you would see that post.
As to the food at Citi, it's just great. That whole stadium is great. Intimate, new, nice. Shake Shack is severely overrated but still good.
Red Sox Trade for Brian Anderson
I'll need someone more in the know than me to explain this one... Does this mean Baldelli's hurt or something and no one's said anything about it? Or that Ellsbury may be a cog in a big deal? I'm really confused.
I'd say it has to be this, only I can't imagine Boston thinks Anderson can be the regular CFer. Wow. I'm lost.
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