Reddick / Bailey Trade: Rapid Reaction

This looks like a trade where both players involved may be significantly worse than they’re perceived.  Josh Reddick was a useful regular last year, but his overall track record remains terrible, and ZiPS projects him as basically a replacement level RF with an 85 OPS+.  Andrew Bailey is a fabulous pitcher when healthy (career 2.07 ERA and 2.74 FIP), but he’s pitched a full season of major league ball only once in three tries.  Any projection that incorporates past playing time is going to see Bailey as maybe a 1-1.5 WAR pitcher, not a star. 

I was a big fan of Reddick’s last year – I loved his glove and arm in right, the huge power potential in his bat, and having a potential star with five seasons of team control remaining.  I have to face the fact that Reddick still doesn’t project as a good, or even useful player, and it may be the case that he still isn’t a good or useful player.  Considering Reddick purely from a numbers standpoint, he’s not a terribly valuable piece.  At the same time, considering Bailey purely from a numbers standpoint, he isn’t either. 

The minor leaguers involved are a pair of lottery tickets – Miles Head looks like most likely organizational filler, but Raul Alcantara was an upside arm (still is, I guess) who appeared to be learning to pitch last year.  He’s the sort of guy I’d rather not have given up, though again, projectible arms in short-season A-ball don’t have a ton of value compared to major league contributors.

They’re clearly committed to converting at least one of Bard and Aceves.  They’ve saved money on relievers by spending talent instead – Bailey and Melancon should cost less than $4M combined.  This leaves the Sox with something like $5-8M remaining under the salary cap.  They have enough to acquire one more cromulent SP, and leave Bard and Aceves to fight for the #5 slot in the rotation.  That would just about do it for the offseason – an RHB 4th OF and some back-end filler for the pitching staff and they’re done.

My main reaction to this trade is to say that it’s clear now that the Red Sox have been executing a plan from day one.  They considered the free agent market, the luxury tax threshold, the club’s young talent, and opted for an unexpected, risky, high-upside offseason strategy.  They decided to convert their best relievers into starting pitchers and to trade young near-regulars for young, underpriced relievers to replace them.  The front office part of the plan is now almost done.  Its success rests mostly, from this point forward, on Valentine and McClure to get the most out of Bard and Aceves.  Hope it works.