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   1. Joel W Posted: April 29, 2006 at 04:01 AM (#1995490)
I have to say, Loretta is unbelievably disappointing. However:

1) Pena is a fine fit. He's a platoon man and a pinch hitter and a back up for Manny and Ortiz. But Coco got hurt. I've been really upset by this team during some games, but we do have to remember that our starting CF is hurt and that hurts the team and the offense a good amount.

2) I am excited about Foulke's performance.

But I'm not that optimistic. This what your certified optimist has pulled out. Bring up Pedroia.
   2. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: April 29, 2006 at 08:53 AM (#1995612)
Well Coco is out for 3 weeks still, right??

I'm worried already...

We could end up too far behind to catch up to anyone. Unless they play at home like they did last year...
   3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 29, 2006 at 11:35 AM (#1995621)
Good post, Darren.

The stuff last night was game chatter wailing. I still think enough of the struggling players will turn it around that this will be a playoff contending team. But I do think that the front office and Theo are quickly approaching another set of decision points in the season. I should be clear here that I am fully aware that none of the following statistics bear much, if any, predictive utility. The question is whether they record a real change in talent and expected production that the Red Sox will need to respond to, and which the Red Sox would need to respond to before the stats reach a level of statistical significance.

Loretta: 219/279/292 (96 AB)
Sea Bass: 194/292/242 (62 AB)
Cora: 235/350/353 (17 AB)
Petunia: 275/383/425 (AAA, 40 AB)

How long do we stick it out with a 550 OPS from the keystone? There were some troubling indicators for both guys last year. Much more so for Gonzalez, whose elbow injury sapped hte power that had made him an ~average hitter for his position. The lack of power from Gonzalez, to me, is the most worrisome thing, because it suggests that the power outage last year might be an unrecoverable loss. I still think Loretta will turn it around, but he's not contributing much to my optimism at the moment.
-how soon does Cora start taking a larger percentage of PA?
-how soon does Petunia earn a starting job just by default?

Pena: 256/341/513 (39 AB)
Harris: 067/263/067 (15 AB, sucked in AAA, too)
Mohr: 197/209/429 (28 AB, 13 K)
Nixon: 250/357/500 (v. LHP, 12 AB)

There's no one in Portland or Pawtucked to help out here. Pena can't field CF. But neither Harris nor Mohr have hit MLB pitching. And if Pena does start a game or two in CF, is Mohr any better than Trot against lefties? I think that Mohr might well have nothing left. I still think Harris will turn it around - he'll leg out a few singles, find the line for a triple, and be back to 330/330. But with Clement and Dinardo on the mound, I think getting Wily Mo's bat in the lineup and punting OF defense is the right move.
-when should Wily Mo start in CF, if ever?
-is Mohr so bad that he shouldn't take PA vs. lefties away from Trot?

Clement and Dinardo: 42.2 IP, 6.54 ERA

They've looked pretty damn bad, too. Matt Ginter is tearing #### up in AAA, and while he's definitely a 4A kinda guy, your typical 4A pitcher can at least get you a 5 ERA in the majors - and yaneverknow, Ginter could be better than that. Alvarez isn't ready, and Lester appears to be on Craig Hansen's pitch count for some reason. Foulke has looked recently like he's ready to dominate again, which could in theory free up Papelbon, but I tend to think that the Sox don't want to jerk the kid around, and that the Sox don't have the confidence in his secondary stuff to make him a starter right now. For me, I'm probably more confident that this problem will sort itself out than with any of the others - I still think the over/under on the combined ERA+ of Clement/Dinardo for the rest of this year should be in hte 95 range.
-how long do the Red Sox stick with poor performances from the back of hte rotation?

Kevin Youkilis: 304/406/418 (79 AB)
Mike Lowell: 296/352/469 (81 AB)
JT Snow: 158/333/158 (19 AB)
Hee Seop Choi: 306/469/531 (AAA, 49 AB)

JT Snow appears to be toast. But if the Sox call up Choi, do they just rot him on the bench? Despite all the players the Red Sox have who could use a push from a good player in AAA, Choi finds himself behind two guys who have been earning their playing time. I don't really have a solution here, but the Sox will need to figure it out at some point.
-when does Choi get hte call, and where does he play once that happens?

I'm also wondering to what degree Varitek is hurt, or whether he'll be able to play through this injury?
   4. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 29, 2006 at 11:54 AM (#1995624)
Also, because I'm sure tons of people care, it was Pythagoras with an "a". He was Greek, not Roman.
   5. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: April 29, 2006 at 12:28 PM (#1995630)
I’m not especially worried about this team, no matter what wrestling fan MCOA says. It’s just painful to watch them right now, as they struggle through some injuries and spells of suck.

I'm not worried either, and think they'll be fine. But the team they lost to last night (Tampa), has had even worse injury issues and the pitching makes Boston's look like one of those old APBA All-Time All-Star teams they put together.
   6. Darren Posted: April 29, 2006 at 12:36 PM (#1995631)
Thanks, jerk. I can't believe I spelled that wrong.

I think your concerns about Mohr and Snow are premature (although Choi is a better option than the latter). The ones that are really concering to me Loretta and Seabass. Those guys aren't just having a bad month. They're tacking on another bad month to the bad seasons they had last year. I'd feel a lot better if they were stinking in a slightly better way than last year. Heck, I'd take Loretta's 05 at this point.

On Wily Mo, am I remembering wrong that his defensive is considered on par with Manny's? Doesn't his offense then make him a very average player? I think that's fine in the platoon role, but wouldn't see the big upside to having him as a fulltime OF, especially since most players have peaked defensively by his age.
   7. jim in providence Posted: April 29, 2006 at 01:34 PM (#1995646)
Well Coco is out for 3 weeks still, right??

I read last week that Crisp is scheduled to begin "baseball related activities" this coming Monday. I guess that means catching, throwing, and taking BP in order to get ready for rehab games in Pawtucket.

Here's the link: Red Sox Notebook (from the Projo, but no password required, it seems)
   8. PJ Martinez Posted: April 29, 2006 at 02:43 PM (#1995659)
The OF seems fine to me, albeit weakened in the absence of Crisp. I like giving Pena starts in CF for now when Clement and Dinardo pitch, and using him in RF against lefties. That's a pretty weak OF defensively, but it will improve when Crisp gets back, and in the meantime Pena gets some ABs.

In the IF, I'd love to see them mix and match Youkilis, Lowell, Loretta, Choi, Gonzalez/Cora, and Pedroia. I say Gonzalez/Cora because I'm not sure how easy it is to keep both on the roster if Pedroia comes up, and I'm not sure who's the more valuable player at this point. Also, Choi would probably have to replace Snow on the roster, and, as I understand it, Snow can't be released until June, and can't be traded without his consent until... when? So, the IF seems fixable but not too easily and probably not before June.

The C situation seems fine to me. Perhaps Bard's trouble with the knuckler will cost us a game at some point. But it hasn't yet, despite the runs he's let in, and perhaps he'll improve. In any case, either Miller or Huckaby might replace him, and I'm not terribly about offense from the backup catcher. Varitek will hit better than this.

No one's really over-performing on offense, are they? Lowell, perhaps, but hey may keep this up. Maybe Youkilis by a little. Take a look at Jeter's and Giambi's numbers, and some of the Jays players. The Sox offense is under-performing right now. It may not be the powerhouse it has been the last few years, but it will be better than this.

Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon and Foulke are the anchors of a good pitching staff. I think Clement will do better than this eventually, if not great. Wakefield's been pitching well. According to the Globe, Dinardo may lose his spot to Ginter if he doesn't perform well soon.

What worries me is that Mussina has been pitching very well, and though he hasn't done it lately, he's capable of keeping that up. And if V. Wells and Rios step it up this year, then Toronto is scary even if they do have to wait a while for Burnett. This is a tough division, and the Sox are a ways off right now from their 03-04 form.
   9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 29, 2006 at 02:52 PM (#1995665)
In the IF, I'd love to see them mix and match Youkilis, Lowell, Loretta, Choi, Gonzalez/Cora, and Pedroia.
What do you mean by this, specifically?

-what's the overlap, ie, do you see Lowell playing significant innings at 2B?
-who loses playing time to Choi?

I was thinking about this mix'n'match thing while I was posting. While I think they're gonna need to make a move to Petunia relatively soon, unless they're very confident in Loretta/AGonz to turn it around, that's not really "mixing and matching", it's just calling up a new starter from AAA. 1B/3B seems complicated for any mix/match scheme. I'm not sold on cutting Youkilis' playing time, and I'm concerned about the defensive downgrade in moving Youkilis to 3rd and Choi to 1st. They could go even further and try Lowell at 2nd when Schilling or Wakefield is pitching. I think that would be fun, too, but it seems like more of a Joe Maddon idea than something Tito would do, and it depends greatly on whether Lowell could handle the position in any longterm kinda way.
   10. tfbg9 Posted: April 29, 2006 at 03:39 PM (#1995678)
In their last 8 games they are hitting .160 or something with RISP. There's half the offensive problem right there.
   11. rr Posted: April 29, 2006 at 03:57 PM (#1995679)
We could end up too far behind to catch up to anyone.

Toronto 12 9
Boston 13 10
Baltimore 13 11
NY Yankees 11 10
Tampa Bay 10 13

Yes, I know the Red Sox are 5-1 in one-run games and the Yankees are 0-4, but geez...

The Red Sox are not a great team and have a few key guys in their 30s but:

No one else in the AL is great either, except perhaps the White Sox.
The Yankees are very old

The Red Sox have:

massive revenue streams
a good front office
a solid farm system

I root for the Reds, who are looking great but, well, you know, and the Padres, who really should be worried.

I'd say Red Sox fans have less to worry about than any fan base in the majors.
   12. chris p Posted: April 29, 2006 at 04:02 PM (#1995681)
am I remembering wrong that his defensive is considered on par with Manny's?

i think it's that his defensive instincts are on par with manny. he's much quicker and he has a vvery strong arm.
   13. Maine John Posted: April 29, 2006 at 04:09 PM (#1995684)
When Coco returns, we should see an overall improvement.

Hasn't Loretta had a lot of loud outs right at people lately? His season-to-date BABIP is .220, and he's making solid contact so it's just a matter of time until we see that start to rise towards his non-injured season average of .340. He'll probably be the least of our worries over the next 4-5 months.

SeaBass is the real concern as MCoA insightfully noted. His BABIP norm is .280 and he's currently around .250 while striking out above his usual 20% PA rate.

Knowing that Theo divides the season in thirds, we're about half way through the evaluation period, IOWs, equal distance to the transaction period. Pedroia and Hansen will be closely evaluated during May in order to see if they are close to ML-ready. The fan-boy in me would love to see both contribute in a major way in the summer! The analyst in me doesn't think that's far fetched either. If Lowell keeps showing signs of rebirth, could he be used as trade bait (even if we have to absorb some salary) for another starter?
A FA-to-be may be targeted (partial list):

RHSP:
Paul Wilson (Team Option)
Jeff Weaver
Ramon Ortiz
Jason Johnson (Mutual Option)
Gil Meche
Joe Mays
Byung-Hyun Kim (Team Option)
Sidney Ponson
Tony Armas Jr.
Jose Contreras
Kevin Jarvis
Jason Schmidt
Jeff Suppan
Woody Williams
Cory Lidle
Kelvim Escobar
Chan Ho Park
Jason Marquis
Vicente Padilla
Adam Eaton


LHSP:
Ted Lilly
Brian Anderson
Mark Redman
Shawn Estes
Tom Glavine
Kevin Appier
Jamie Moyer
Andy Pettitte
Mark Mulder
Barry Zito
Doug Davis

The only team where Lowell would be an upgrade at 3B would be the..... Phillies? for Lidle? ... this probably isn't going to work for us. To quote Emily Litella...."never mind".

That said, I'd still like to see Youks/Petunia/Loretta/Choi.
   14. RobertMachemer Posted: April 29, 2006 at 05:33 PM (#1995715)
is Mohr any better than Trot against lefties?
In a word, yes.

(Copying and pasting a table I made on usenet. I hope this works...)

OPS (ABsagainst lefties:
player    2006       2005       2004       2003       2002       2001
Nixon
:  .964 (10)  .639 (85)  .321 (15)  .671 (96)  .656 (115.604 (105)
Mohr:   .932 (19)  .907 (113.738 (115.801 (117.631 (133.774 (17)
Pena:   .620 (19)  .881 (110)1.039 (86)  .635 (54)  .714 (7)    --- (--)

player  career:   2003-2005
Nixon .638 
(526)  .632 (196)
Mohr  .771 (514)  .815 (345)
Pena  .861 (276)  .883 (250
   15. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 29, 2006 at 05:41 PM (#1995733)
There's no question that Mohr projects better statistically. (Though with a player whose track record is as limited as Mohr's, I'd rather take his full line and apply a normal split than use the actual split stats. MGL showed those numbers have basically no predictive utility.) But either way, yes, I basically agree about the stats.

The question is whether the new information we have from watching Dustan Mohr should affect the projection. I think it might be the case.
   16. RobertMachemer Posted: April 29, 2006 at 05:49 PM (#1995745)
Offense-wise, the team is in trouble if Varitek and Loretta don't turn things around. Right now (roughly), this is how the team shakes out...

great: DH
good: rf, lf
acceptable: 1b, 3b
bad: c, cf (Crisp good, Stern/Mohr/Harris godawful)
godawful: ss, 2b

Center field should bump up to good if/when Crisp returns. Shortstop can be bumped up to acceptable (give or take) if/when Pedroia gets called up. But catcher and second base have no real backup plans. And both were assumed to be at least two slots higher than they are (i.e., catcher was assumed to be good, second base was assumed to be at least acceptable).

Seriously, right now, the lineup has two holes and two mega-holes. Even if Manny Ramirez returns to being great offensively, even if Nixon/Pena continue being as good as they have been, they're still not enough to compensate for pretty much everything up the middle stinking thus far.
   17. RobertMachemer Posted: April 29, 2006 at 05:54 PM (#1995753)
There's no question that Mohr projects better statistically. (Though with a player whose track record is as limited as Mohr's, I'd rather take his full line and apply a normal split than use the actual split stats. MGL showed those numbers have basically no predictive utility.) But either way, yes, I basically agree about the stats.

The question is whether the new information we have from watching Dustan Mohr should affect the projection. I think it might be the case.
I'm not sure I understand. Mohr has a limited sample, so you suggest we ignore his splits to look at his overall numbers (okay, I get that, and am fine with it).

But then you suggest being more affected by "new information" (I assume you mean 'what he's done this year') -- aren't you just letting an even smaller sample influence your decision? (And, hey, it's not like Mohr hasn't hit lefties just fine so far this year anyway).
   18. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 29, 2006 at 06:11 PM (#1995773)
But then you suggest being more affected by "new information" (I assume you mean 'what he's done this year') -- aren't you just letting an even smaller sample influence your decision?
Not exactly, becuase I'm not talking about statistics. I'm talking about how he has gotten those stats rather than the content of the stats. We watch every game, so we have a lot more information about these 40 Dustan Mohr at-bats than we do about his numbers in Colorado, for which we have mainly the raw stat lines.

The question is not what the stats say, because as you rightly note they don't say much of anything, but what we see in the play that underlies the stats.
   19. PJ Martinez Posted: April 29, 2006 at 06:51 PM (#1995819)
As for the mixing and matching: I was thinking that Pedroia could get some ABs at SS, and some ABs at 2B. Choi might get a few starts at 1B, mostly with Youks across the diamond, perhaps once or twice with Lowell at 2B, to see how that goes. Otherwise, Choi pinch-hits. If Cora and Gonzalez are both on the roster, Choi could pinch-hit in every game he doesn't start.

I'm not sure if this would really work, of course, but the idea behind mixing and matching is that, at this point, it's not clear whether 1) Loretta will bounce back; 2) Lowell will keep it up; 3) Pedroia will handle SS defensively in the majors; 4) Gonzalez will ever hit for power again.

On a separate note, I wouldn't be surprised if Youkilis gets moved to 2nd in the order when Crisp gets back, with Loretta getting moved down. That will depend, of course, what happens in the next few weeks, and it's quite possible both Loretta and Youkilis will regress (the first positively, the second negatively) to the mean during that time. I haven't really noticed a lot of loud outs from Loretta lately, but I haven't seen all his ABs, and if his BABIP is that low, perhaps he'll come around at least a little. But the really dramatic decline for Loretta last year was in SLG-- has he shown any signs of getting that back?
   20. tfbg9 Posted: April 29, 2006 at 06:59 PM (#1995827)
I'd like to see Youks in the 9th spot when Coco comes back, with Seabass/Cora/kevin's binky in the 8th spot.

Leave Lorretta alone in the two, when the weather gets hot and the Fenway games pile up, he should be reasonably "ZIPPY."

Speaking of Fenway, I'll be in Section 30 on Sat. 5/6 against the O's.
   21. John DiFool2 Posted: April 29, 2006 at 09:22 PM (#1995995)
I think everyone here is overreacting to small sample sizes, tho the recent stinkfests do have me worried too.
   22. RobertMachemer Posted: April 29, 2006 at 10:11 PM (#1996028)
I think everyone here is overreacting to small sample sizes, tho the recent stinkfests do have me worried too.
Absolutely. This could well be like the start of the 1996 season (where the offense was seriously offtrack for the first month and a half) -- once it turned back on, the Sox were the best team in baseball for the rest of the year (falling just short of the playoffs). There's no compelling reason so far to think that this isn't a very good team; that said, it'd be silly not to consider the possibilities that...

(1) Varitek is returning to the form he had in 2000 and 2002.
(2) Loretta's years of being one of the best second basemen (and even a good second basemen) are over.
(3) Gonzalez is even worse as a hitter than we'd imagined.

If Crisp comes back to hit as he did before getting injured, that's one hole down. Pedroia can replace Gonzalez's bat and (assuming he's not godawful as a fielder) improve the team there. But there's little the Sox can do for Loretta and Varitek but give them time and hope that the early showings are not representative of how well they're going to do this year.

Meanwhile, go DiNardo! Show all the nay-sayers that you're better than you seemed last outing!
   23. chris p Posted: April 30, 2006 at 02:21 AM (#1996672)
Pedroia can replace Gonzalez's bat and (assuming he's not godawful as a fielder) improve the team there. But there's little the Sox can do for Lorett

petunia could replace either gonzo or loretta. i'd prefer to put him at 2nd and leave gonzalaz at short.
   24. ekogan Posted: April 30, 2006 at 02:23 AM (#1996679)
Does Wily Mo Pena have something personal against Keith Foulke? Today is the second time he bumped up Keith's ERA.
   25. Darren Posted: April 30, 2006 at 02:55 AM (#1996746)
I think everyone here is overreacting to small sample sizes, tho the recent stinkfests do have me worried too.

I'm not, I'm only picking on the guys who have stunk for 1 year and 1 month.

If Tampa drops out of it pretty soon, they should be willing to deal Lugo, who's a free agent at the end of the year. If the new crowd there has realistic expectations in a trade, he would be a great addition for the Sox. Simply great. If Loretta keeps tanking and Pedroia manages to round back into form, then you bring the little guy up too.
   26. tfbg9 Posted: April 30, 2006 at 03:24 AM (#1996798)
Isn't Lugo a wife-beater?
   27. Darren Posted: April 30, 2006 at 03:27 AM (#1996805)
No, he's just misunderstood like Tavarez and Wells.
   28. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: April 30, 2006 at 05:04 AM (#1996945)
Does Wily Mo Pena have something personal against Keith Foulke? Today is the second time he bumped up Keith's ERA.


I wanted to mention that in chatter but had a customer in the shop. That play was butchered from what I saw on the replay.

It looked also on that hit that Gomes had Manny-itis and thought it was a home run of the bat.

Other than Gomes, Foulke was was great today. Tavarez was OK as well after his meatball to Hall.

Sorry bout the pessimism above, I just sleep better when I worry a lot.
   29. Darren Posted: April 30, 2006 at 05:20 AM (#1996950)
That ball was pretty well hit by Gomes. I think a very good CF gets it but it wasn't a horrible play for it to drop. When you allow the hitter to smash the ball 370 ft., it's hard to blame the OF for not catching it.
   30. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: April 30, 2006 at 05:37 AM (#1996957)
C'Mon Darren, we need to be harsh and firm on our beloved Red Sox!!
   31. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 30, 2006 at 04:17 PM (#1997084)
I caught parts of the Sox game last night. Sadly missed the bottom of the 9th, sounds like Papelbon was awesome.

So, can we get a Kevin Youkilis is so great thread? What I'm liking the most about Youkilis lately has been his situational walking - sometimes, when a pitcher is missing his spots and no one is on base, Youks actually does play for the walk. It's not something a hitter should do usually, but in the right situations, and with a hitter who isn't a sure thing to get extra bases even if he absolutely rips the ball, it's good baseball.

Dinardo looks like a pretty replacement-level pitcher to me. I can see a possibility for a bright future, but with his stuff, he can't afford to miss. Right now, he throws a couple pitches every game that don't go where they oughta or move like they're supposeda, and any reasonably competent MLB hitter will destroy those balls coming in at 80-82. I'd say he's one more notch of command/control and one excellent pick-off move away from being Kirk Rueter, which is a pretty good thing to be, but he isn't there yet. I think, all else being equal, the Sox should return him to Pawtucket to work on his development, and try out Matt Ginter.

Foulke is back. I don't think he's a 180 ERA+ pitcher like he was at his peak, but he's good enough to be closing on a large percentage of MLB teams. That's pretty great.

We still don't have a middle infield, and Petunia went 0-3 last night and has a 770 OPS.
   32. Dave Cyprian Posted: April 30, 2006 at 05:06 PM (#1997120)
Woah, are you guys aware of this "Boston Newsbeat" page on BTF, seperate from Sox Therapy? This site is getting confusing. Personally I'd rather get all my Sox news on one page.
   33. villageidiom Posted: April 30, 2006 at 06:45 PM (#1997497)
So, can we get a Kevin Youkilis is so great thread?

MCoA -

With the BBTF Forums it's pretty easy to set up your own topic. Like, for example, this one.

In Forum Land, everyone has keys.
   34. PJ Martinez Posted: April 30, 2006 at 08:15 PM (#1998007)
On the subject of Youkilis: he's looked great, but he needs to protect the inside on 2-strike counts. How many times has he struck out looking this year on inside pitches? I haven't counted, but I'd say at least five, maybe more. Some of them may have been slightly generous, but he's a young guy and he can't count on getting those calls. And most of them, like the one he struck out on today, have been pretty good pitches.

His strike recognition is great, but with two strikes, you can't be quite so picky.
   35. Darren Posted: April 30, 2006 at 08:39 PM (#1998080)
Dinardo looks like a pretty replacement-level pitcher to me.

Second time MCoA has called a Red Sox player pretty. Not trying to say anything here, I'm just pointing it out.

On a more serious note, MCoA, you seem to be putting a lot more stock in your observations of players than in their statistical record of late. Why this shift (if indeed there was one)? I often find myself thinking that if someone other than you had made comment X about a player, I'd be likely to scoff at them for letting their eyes fool them. Since it's you, I of course just blindly agree.

With the BBTF Forums it's pretty easy to set up your own topic. Like, for example, this one.

That's fantastic. Now in addition to the Newsblog and Boston Newsbeat, where I can see articles about Youkils, and here in Sox Therapy, where I can read blogs about Youkilis, I can now go over to the Forums, where I can read more about Youkilis. Thanks goodness these aren't all located in one spot--that'd be confusing.
   36. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 30, 2006 at 09:56 PM (#1998149)
On a more serious note, MCoA, you seem to be putting a lot more stock in your observations of players than in their statistical record of late. Why this shift (if indeed there was one)? I often find myself thinking that if someone other than you had made comment X about a player, I'd be likely to scoff at them for letting their eyes fool them.
Well, it's pretty much a combination of two things. The first is ideological - I've become convinced that there's a huge amount of important characteristics about baseball players that escape statistical recognition. I don't mean that in terms of intangibles or something - let's bracket those for now - but rather that statistics only bear meaning over a large sample, and a lot of important stuff happens in small samples that evade statistical understanding. Dinardo's only got ~150 IP the last two years, for instance. Just by basic rules of statistics, that data can't give us very much specific knowledge. So, if we're going to understand what this guy is about, we need to get information beyond his stat line.

So, following from that, I've been trying to pay closer attention to what ballplayers do on the field, trying to train my eyes to it. I've got quite a bit of experience to draw on, having watched baseball like my whole life, so I don't think I'm particularly terrible at this.

But I am wildly amateur, so I try to put "it looks to me" and "from what I see" as disclaimers, because as much as I might like everyone to blindly agree with my observations, I'm more trying to open up the topic for discussion and I figure that other people see things differently from me. And when more of us agree on something (like last year, when Millar's power drain became apparent), that's really useful information beyond the stats.
That's fantastic. Now in addition to the Newsblog and Boston Newsbeat, where I can see articles about Youkils, and here in Sox Therapy, where I can read blogs about Youkilis, I can now go over to the Forums, where I can read more about Youkilis. Thanks goodness these aren't all located in one spot--that'd be confusing.
I'm feeling similarly, though I'm not as funny.

I'm willing to wait and see how it works out, and I am of course grateful to Jim for all the work he's put in to building this site and providing the space for this community, but I have to admit that I don't plan to use the forums or the newsbeat unless those become the only way to participate in BTF conversations.
   37. Darren Posted: April 30, 2006 at 11:41 PM (#1998232)
So, following from that, I've been trying to pay closer attention to what ballplayers do on the field, trying to train my eyes to it. I've got quite a bit of experience to draw on, having watched baseball like my whole life, so I don't think I'm particularly terrible at this.

I can see trying to fill the gaps left by a dearth of stats with personal observation, but it seems to me that trusting your eyes too much is how things like Derek Jeter, Gold Glover happen. (Actually, that's a bad example. Even I can SEE how bad he is in the field.)
   38. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: May 01, 2006 at 12:45 AM (#1998284)
If the Mets didn't trade Kazmir they would be leading by about 10 games already and could set their rotation for the playoffs.

Glad I was asleep for what looked like another fantastic loss. Saenez is a joke, can't they bring up Hansen and take winning seriously and create an awesome bullpen around Paps, Foulke and Hansen???

Just a thought, but these cheap losses are a joke.
   39. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 01, 2006 at 01:38 AM (#1998315)
I can see trying to fill the gaps left by a dearth of stats with personal observation, but it seems to me that trusting your eyes too much is how things like Derek Jeter, Gold Glover happen.
Oh, sure. It's really important to recognize the limitations of whatever mode of evaluation you're using, and in this case, my limitations are many. If Dinardo pitches well for a while, I'll want to reconsider my observations, and certainly if we reach a point with Dinardo where there's a convincing statistical record (as with Jeter), that would need to play a major role in any evaluation.

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