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   1. villageidiom Posted: January 14, 2019 at 09:22 AM (#5805218)
I suspect they will go with 13 pitchers to start the season. Their schedule starts with an 11-game road trip with no travel days: 4 in Seattle, 4 in Oakland, 3 in Phoenix. Given their desire not to overtax the starters, plus their likely inability to go too deep into games that early in the season, and an inability to skip a start with a day off, I'd be surprised if they didn't go with an 8-man bullpen to start the year. Maybe if Wright were available they could rely on him for relief depth and go with just 7 relievers.
   2. Nasty Nate Posted: January 14, 2019 at 10:00 AM (#5805227)
Minors: Chandler Shepherd, Bobby Poyner, Marcus Walden(?)
Another guy to keep an eye on is Durbin Feltman. Admittedly, I had never heard of him until a few weeks ago. He was just drafted last year, but in his first 23 pro innings, he struck out 36 guys and didn't let up a HR.
   3. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: January 14, 2019 at 10:44 AM (#5805252)
That's a good call. I probably should have mentioned Travis Lakins too. The bullpen is such a wide open thing, I'm sure there is someone I haven't even thought of or possibly heard of that is going to pitch meaningful innings.

Feltman is a curious dude. There was actually talk when he got drafted that he might be a Craig Hansen type who gets called up in the same year. It's a good point to mention him because I expect him to be pushed and won't be shocked if he's in town by August.
   4. jmurph Posted: January 14, 2019 at 10:56 AM (#5805257)
Their schedule starts with an 11-game road trip with no travel days: 4 in Seattle, 4 in Oakland, 3 in Phoenix.

Wow, didn't know that. That will be interesting.
   5. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: January 14, 2019 at 01:08 PM (#5805369)
Yeah, I'm not sure if that's good or bad. I mean they get the west coast trip out of the way then only have to go out there once (end of August) the rest of the season. That feels like a pretty low travel schedule.
   6. karlmagnus Posted: January 14, 2019 at 01:11 PM (#5805371)
It's the opposite of 2018, when they started against weak teams and zoomed ahead, then had a tough schedule at the end (winning only 108, when it looked like they might win 115 or so.) If they emerge above .500 from that West Coast tour, they should be in great shape for the season.
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: January 14, 2019 at 02:00 PM (#5805393)
Infield: Mitch Moreland, Steve MVPearce, Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt, Rafael Devers


My first thought was, Good Lord, that's awful. My second was, oh, he left out Xander.

   8. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: January 14, 2019 at 02:06 PM (#5805394)
My ability to leave someone out EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. I do this is really impressive. So yeah, call it 13/12 hitter to pitcher and why the hell didn't the rest of you notice? That probably makes Colton Brewer the odd man out though if the Sox punt Leon he cold squeeze in.
   9. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 14, 2019 at 02:33 PM (#5805401)
Even with significant regression to the mean across the board AND a correction to their Pythagorean luck, this is still going to be a 90+ win team. Also, Mookie is now the 4th best paid player on the club, behind Price, Martinez, and Porcello. (PORCELLO! *shakes fist*). Though he's still earning less than the dead money owed to Rusney and Panda.
   10. jmurph Posted: January 14, 2019 at 03:05 PM (#5805408)
What's the Betts contract going to look like and when will it happen? Next winter?
   11. Nasty Nate Posted: January 14, 2019 at 03:12 PM (#5805412)
What's the Betts contract going to look like and when will it happen? Next winter?
These are total spur-of-the-moment guesses, but I think it's this winter or never for an extension (although he may sign with Sox as free agent), and it might look like:

'19 - $25m
'20 - $35m
'21 - $35m
'22 - $35m w/ opt out afterwards
'23 - $35m w/ opt out afterwards
'24 - $35m
   12. jmurph Posted: January 14, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5805414)
These are total spur-of-the-moment guesses, but I think it's this winter or never for an extension (although he may sign with Sox as free agent), and it might look like:

'19 - $25m

They've already agreed to $20 for 2019, I think?
   13. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: January 14, 2019 at 03:19 PM (#5805417)
Yeah he's signed for this year at $20 million but I think if you bump the years up by one on Nate's list it's probably pretty close. Probably need to add a year or two on the end.
   14. Nasty Nate Posted: January 14, 2019 at 03:20 PM (#5805419)
You guys, they don't have to keep the $20m amount if they agree on a new contract...
   15. jmurph Posted: January 14, 2019 at 03:48 PM (#5805433)
Yeah that's true. I would think the latter years would need to be more money, but I could see the overall shape looking like that. I hope it happens soon.
   16. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: January 14, 2019 at 03:49 PM (#5805435)
I don't think anything happens this year, but I highly doubt he's going anywhere.
   17. jmurph Posted: January 14, 2019 at 04:00 PM (#5805444)
Both sides seem happy, and the Red Sox are rich and I can't imagine them being outspent, especially given the amount of money coming off the books soon.
   18. Nasty Nate Posted: January 17, 2019 at 02:33 PM (#5806357)
Ottavino to NYY. Of the free agent RP's, Cody Allen and Kimbrel are the most interesting remaining.
   19. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 17, 2019 at 03:33 PM (#5806367)
Both sides seem happy, and the Red Sox are rich and I can't imagine them being outspent, especially given the amount of money coming off the books soon.


There's not a ton of dead or bad money coming off though. #'s reflect their 2019 salary:

Porcello - $21.125M
Sale - $15M
Bogaerts - $12M
Pearce - $6.25M
Moreland - $6.5M
Nunez - $5M
Holt - $3.575M
Fat Panda - down to $5m for 2020 after $18.445M in 2019, then done

Between Porcello & Sale the Sox could use a frontline starter, and depth, assuming some step forward from Ed Rod. So, pencil $20M per for a starting pitcher.
Either resign X or get a new starting SS - no clue.
I am assuming Devers will move to 1st, saving some money there, but then there's a hole at 3B. Do the Sox go big with someone? There is so much good talent at 3B in MLB right now.
Nunez/Holt - will need to be replaced, maybe a $5M savings if the Sox go internal.

I am assuming the $33.325M for the infielders gets spent, as they'd need a starting SS, starting 3B (or 1B based on where Devers plays) and a utility/caddy backup infielder.

So, really, maybe a savings of $25M between Sale and Panda? Great, but as of now they are anticipated to be $31M+ over the 2019 cap. Maybe they hold off on replacing both Sale and Porcello in 2020 so they can reset their luxury tax repeat offender status, but if they sign a frontline starter for 2020 I don't see how they are under.

   20. Nasty Nate Posted: January 17, 2019 at 03:44 PM (#5806370)
It's not dead or bad money, but JD's also comes off the books if he has a good 2019.

Edit: Also, you may be doing it backwards. Instead of allocating cash all over the place and then see what's left for Mookie, they would probably prioritize getting a long-term agreement with him in place, and then building around it.
   21. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: January 17, 2019 at 03:53 PM (#5806371)
The thing with Sandoval is the Sox (and most big money teams) don't really care about the individual numbers so much as the AAV so in Sandoval's case that's about $19 million coming off the books. And I'm with Nate, you figure out Mookie and then fill in from there.
   22. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: January 17, 2019 at 08:32 PM (#5806435)
(winning only 108, when it looked like they might win 115 or so.)


Once they clinched they took their foot off the pedal.
   23. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 18, 2019 at 08:52 AM (#5806493)
I wasn't trying to say the Sox weren't going to have money for Mookie - his $20M is off the books at the end of the year as well, so obv they have at least that much right there to spend on him. Just trying to point out that if they Sox want to get under the cap they are going to have to sacrifice somewhere, whether it's the infield or a top line starting pitcher. They do have money coming off, but their good young players are eating all that up and more as they progress through arb and into FA.
   24. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: January 18, 2019 at 09:10 AM (#5806499)
Mookie Betts (after 2020)
J.D. Martinez (after 2019 - opt out)
Xander Bogaerts (after 2019)
Rick Porcello (after 2019)
Chris Sale (after 2019)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (after 2020)


This is how I ranked the "want" list in a previous thread this winter. I think Mookie and JD are definitely sticking around and Sale and Bradley are definitely done when their contracts are. I think Bogaerts and Porcello are the question marks. Obviously if Sale signs a team-friendly deal then the Sox will keep him but I assume he will go all in (and I can't blame him).
   25. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 18, 2019 at 11:11 AM (#5806544)
Assuming no crazy changes in their numbers anybody have any idea what sort of deals Xander and JBJ could expect? What does a 2-3 WAR per year streaky 29 year old CF with a slightly below average bat and great defense get? Or Bogaerts, a 26 year old 3-4 WAR slightly above average bat at SS with acceptable defense?

Seems like Bogaerts is really the question, if he repeats his 135 OPS+ he could get paid, but if he drops back, he could lose a significant amount of money.
   26. Darren Posted: January 20, 2019 at 02:53 PM (#5806959)
Evan Drellich is saying the Sox were trying to lock up Xander but it didn't work out. Any guesses on the offers/counteroffers involved?

My guess: The Sox made the case that he was similar in value to JD but younger, so they offered him a similar deal but longer. 7 years, $150MM. That would be his current 1/$12MM plus 6 years at $23MM per. Xander sees himself somewhere close to Machado in value and would want a deal close to whatever he ends up getting.
   27. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: January 30, 2019 at 09:39 AM (#5810348)
Sox have signed formerly banned for life reliever Jennry Mejia. I suspect this will be a nothing pickup but it's a mildly intriguing low risk/high reward move.
   28. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: February 04, 2019 at 08:41 AM (#5811835)
HAPPY TRUCK DAY Y'ALL!!!
   29. villageidiom Posted: February 04, 2019 at 09:20 AM (#5811841)
I always picture Jose on Truck Day™ to be like Buddy the Elf when he hears that Santa is coming to Gimbel's.
   30. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: February 04, 2019 at 09:33 AM (#5811846)
That's nonsense, Buddy doesn't get nearly as excited as I do.
   31. jmurph Posted: February 04, 2019 at 10:25 AM (#5811866)
Happy Super Bowl to those who celebrate. What a miserable 3ish months that was for us between championships.

EDIT: I think I read that this was the 2nd shortest gap, for the record. Apparently the 86 Mets to Giants was slightly quicker, although my understanding of NY area sports allegiances leads me to believe there isn't quite the same overlap.
   32. Nasty Nate Posted: February 04, 2019 at 10:41 AM (#5811874)
If Lucchino were around, he would make sure truck day was a day after the Patriots parade...
   33. dave h Posted: February 04, 2019 at 12:19 PM (#5811905)
Truck Day! I won Disneyworld tickets at a silent auction. The other time I've been, we timed it to catch a couple spring training games. Might have to schedule it that way again.
   34. villageidiom Posted: February 04, 2019 at 08:19 PM (#5812103)
Jose walking around the office today: MikeMikeMikeMikeMike... Guess what day it is!

Mike: (sigh) It's truck day.

Jose: TRUCK DAYYYYYYYYYYYYY!
   35. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 04, 2019 at 09:36 PM (#5812118)
Pffft, no point in getting too excited. They just won again and we'll have to wait the usual 3-5 years for it to happen again. I'd be totally stoked though if they win the AL East for the 4th time in a row. That would be more then enough for my fandom to be satisfied this year.

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