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   1. Mister High Standards Posted: August 25, 2007 at 07:20 PM (#2499439)
Lil Dust is pretty clearly the best position player amoung rookies in the AL. Buck and Wilits have been good, but not nearly as good as Lil Dust.

The pitching side is a lot more interesting as after Dice K and Okie you also have pretty good candidates in Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Bannister.

Dice K will likly end up leading AL rookies in Wins, K, Innings while being the numnber 2 starter for the top staff in the AL - thats a tough combination. I think Dust will get overshadowed due his lack of flash.
   2. cminsf Posted: August 25, 2007 at 09:57 PM (#2499645)
For what it's worth, which is admittedly little when it comes to ROY voting, Dice K leads all of those guys in VORP and Win Shares above Bench, so there's some additional justification for choosing him.
   3. GIANTlhbASS Posted: August 25, 2007 at 10:47 PM (#2499712)
Pretty clear that Matsuzaka deserves it and will win it. Next I'd go Guthrie, Bannister (give the Royals some credit), Pedroia (the statistical inverse of the roto-friendly Chris Young) and Okajima (who in July I would've put at the top).
   4. Artie Ziff Posted: August 25, 2007 at 11:30 PM (#2499747)
I would choose Pedroia because of his daily contributions to the lineup. Matsuzaka pitching once a week helped Boston to a current East lead, but I'd take Pedroia's numbers over his. Plus I still cannot bring myself to call Matsuzaka a rookie.
   5. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: August 26, 2007 at 12:32 AM (#2499769)
Plus I still cannot bring myself to call Matsuzaka a rookie.

Me neither but because he's eligible, I'd have to force myself to vote for him, just like Ichiro, Kazuhiro Sasaki (weak year for AL rookies), Hideo Nomo (150 ERA+ to Chipper Jones's 109 OPS+) and Hideki Matsui (111 OPS+) over Angel Berroa (78 OPS+).

I love Dusty as much as the next guy but Daisuke has been one of the dozen best starters in the AL this year.

But yes, if Daisuke wasn't eligible, I'd definitely go with Dusty. As much as I don't want to disrespect the Japanese league, I wouldn't want to take a vote away from the guy who most deserves it just to protest a rule I'm not that passionate about defending.
   6. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: August 26, 2007 at 12:42 AM (#2499775)
Pretty clear that Matsuzaka deserves it and will win it.


I don't know that it's pretty clear he'll win it. I think the writers are willing to vote for a Japanese player if he's head and shoulders above the pack (like Ichiro), but in a close race I think they'll pick a more traditional rookie. And I can't say that I blame them.
   7. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: August 26, 2007 at 01:51 AM (#2499797)
my worry in this whole thing is that the glut of sox candidates will mean that each sox roy candidate will effectively steal votes from the other 2.

in any case, this has been a great year (so far) to be a sox fan.
   8. spycake Posted: August 26, 2007 at 02:41 AM (#2499816)
Hideki Matsui (111 OPS+) over Angel Berroa (78 OPS+).


Since when is future career OPS+ a valid criteria for ROY voting? Matsui won enough points over Berroa in 2003 alone (111 OPS+ > 96 OPS+), I don't think it's necessary to distort it further.
   9. PJ Martinez Posted: August 26, 2007 at 02:59 AM (#2499824)
Speaking of Red Sox players and awards, Josh Beckett has a chance at the Cy Young. I was just comparing his stats to Dan Haren's, though, and a question emerged.

Haren has maintained an ERA of 2.66 over 179 innings, notably superior to Beckett's 3.21 over 160 innings. However, Haren has given up far more HRs (17 to 10), allowed about the same number of hits (155 to 147), struck out fewer batters (147 to 152), and walked considerably more (46 to 33). I guess the hits work out in Haren's favor, as he has the slightly better WHIP: 1.21 to 1.25.

But how to explain the considerable difference in ERA? Just better timing with his hits/HRs? Am I missing something? I'm aware that clutch pitching, according to some smart people, exists; has Haren just been more clutch this year than Beckett?

By the way, I'm aware that Johan Santana should be considered the favorite over both those guys, as well as Lackey and Sabathia, whom I imagine to round out the top five.
   10. PJ Martinez Posted: August 26, 2007 at 03:01 AM (#2499825)
Well here's something: Haren has allowed 11 unearned runs, to Beckett's 3.

Unearned runs for the other three guys: Lackey, 12; Santana, 6; Sabathia, 8.
   11. Mister High Standards Posted: August 26, 2007 at 03:26 AM (#2499831)
The AL cy young will be determined in the next 5-6 starts. Haren, Beckett, Lackey, Escobar, Sabathia and Johan are all in the game.

I don't think Haren is the favorite.
   12. chris p Posted: August 26, 2007 at 03:44 AM (#2499843)
But how to explain the considerable difference in ERA? Just better timing with his hits/HRs? Am I missing something? I'm aware that clutch pitching, according to some smart people, exists; has Haren just been more clutch this year than Beckett?

how many more outs on foul pop-ups did haren get compared to beckett?
   13. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: August 26, 2007 at 04:05 AM (#2499858)
Haren, Beckett, Lackey, Escobar, Sabathia and Johan are all in the game.


I'd though Bedard in there for fun
   14. chris p Posted: August 26, 2007 at 04:14 AM (#2499862)
if there was a 2nd half cy young award, scott kazmir would be in the running.
   15. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: August 26, 2007 at 02:38 PM (#2499968)
Since when is future career OPS+ a valid criteria for ROY voting? Matsui won enough points over Berroa in 2003 alone (111 OPS+ > 96 OPS+), I don't think it's necessary to distort it further.

You're right, dude. I didn't look carefully and took Berroa's 15 games in 2001 as his rookie year.
   16. PJ Martinez Posted: August 26, 2007 at 02:42 PM (#2499969)
"I don't think Haren is the favorite."

No, I don't think so either-- Santana, I think, probably leads the pack now, but he's vulnerable given that the Twins will likely not make the playoffs. (That hurts Haren, too, of course, and Bedard, whom I forgot, but who has been awesome.) If Beckett or Sabathia or one of the Angels pitchers steps it up in September and helps lead his team into October, that could be the difference.
   17. PJ Martinez Posted: August 28, 2007 at 03:00 AM (#2501669)
I've just barely started reading this, but it's pretty awesome so far:

http://hackswithhaggs.com/2007/08/26/did-you-hear-the-story-about-pedroia.aspx
   18. The NeverEnding Torii (oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh) Posted: August 28, 2007 at 05:33 PM (#2502021)
As an Angel fan, it's frustrating to see Lackey still involved in Cy Young talk after a run of bad starts. Meanwhile, Ol' Reliable (Kelvim Escobar) - who continues to be just as good, if not better - isn't even in the conversation. Escobar's right behind Haren in ERA and the rest of his numbers are pretty comparable to Lackey's.

Also: Fausto Carmona and Erik Bedard aren't getting anywhere near the Cy Young talk they should be getting, while Beckett and Sabathia continue to get way too much support, despite cooling off quite a bit in the second half.
   19. The wet leg of Darrell Porter Posted: September 03, 2007 at 01:15 AM (#2509276)
The days of not picking the 'veteran' foreign player are gone with the downfall of Angel Berroa. Dice-K came in with a lot of pressure and has performed.
   20. Xander Posted: September 03, 2007 at 01:18 AM (#2509277)
I'm almost positive Pedroia has this award locked up.
   21. Dr. Vaux Posted: September 03, 2007 at 01:46 AM (#2509288)
I hadn't seen the Red Sox on TV very much this year until this past week, when the White Sox series was on FOX and WGN, and then they played the Orioles. And every time I saw them before this, Alex Cora started at second base. I like Pedroia a lot. I moved to the Boston area in 1997, just when Nomar came up. Pedroia isn't quite the same thing, but he's a little bit comparable, at least.
   22. Darren Posted: September 03, 2007 at 03:17 AM (#2509331)
I'm almost positive Pedroia has this award locked up.


Really? Why? .324 is a big plus for him, but he's got only 6 HR, 42 RBI, and 68 Runs. He will benefit from the gutty, gritty, short white guy thing, but I have a hard time seeing writers picking him over All-Star Okajima or 200-IP ace Matsuzaka.
   23. Xander Posted: September 03, 2007 at 03:58 AM (#2509362)
Really? Why? .324 is a big plus for him, but he's got only 6 HR, 42 RBI, and 68 Runs. He will benefit from the gutty, gritty, short white guy thing, but I have a hard time seeing writers picking him over All-Star Okajima or 200-IP ace Matsuzaka.
It's mostly just a feeling. But Matsuzaka has almost been under the radar for the last 2 months, while I see Pedro getting a lot of face-time and fluffery from the media. He's an everyday player, he's age-appropriate, and he's also had an excellent year (probably the 2nd best overall player on this team this year next to Lowell). I just have a feeling these are all going to help him out come vote time. I don't think his size or grittiness will have much to do with it.
   24. bibigon Posted: September 03, 2007 at 04:49 AM (#2509373)
He's an everyday player, he's age-appropriate, and he's also had an excellent year (probably the 2nd best overall player on this team this year next to Lowell).


This got me thinking - it seems like the Sox have a lot of legit team MVP candidates.

I could see reasonable cases for giving votes to Pedroia, Youkilis, Lowell, Beckett, and Ortiz. Somehow Matsuzaka actually leads the team in WARP3, but I don't really see a case for him over Beckett without relying too heavily solely on WARP3.

If I were more confident in Lowell's defense, he'd be a pretty easy pick.
   25. Darren Posted: September 03, 2007 at 11:56 AM (#2509411)
Passan's take: Bannister/Pedroia/Daisuke/Okajima. He's on board with your line of thinking apparently.
   26. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: September 03, 2007 at 12:09 PM (#2509413)
You'd consider team MVP honors for Youkilis? There's no question that he's having a nice year (though with his first-half numbers and his current numbers, I have to imagine that he hasn't done much the last month or two).
   27. Dan Posted: September 04, 2007 at 04:37 AM (#2510843)
I dunno, after the past week, Pedroia's raised his stock a nice bit and Daisuke has exhibited more streaks of mediocrity.
   28. Darren Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:06 AM (#2512348)
Pedroia's making Temple look smart(er).
   29. TomH Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:28 PM (#2512737)
it seems like the Sox have a lot of legit team MVP candidates.

The Red Sox, like the Yankees of the late 90s, have a LOT of players having fine years, who might deserve to be called some of the best 25 or 50 players.

But none of them have a SNIFF at the MVP award. No one big year guy. No chance.
   30. chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:52 PM (#2512767)
But none of them have a SNIFF at the MVP award. No one big year guy. No chance.

pedroia!
   31. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 05, 2007 at 04:22 PM (#2512833)
Ortiz is 3rd in the league in OPS and has no shot at MVP.
   32. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: September 05, 2007 at 04:56 PM (#2512887)
Dice-K is having a nice first season in the majors, but some voter's perceptions will be that he's not a "real" rookie will cost him a few votes. Statistically this season, he's Tim Wakefield with a much better K rate. Being compared to Wakefield this season is certainly not a black mark. If he has a really good September and has a shot at 19 wins, that's another matter.

I don't see anyone in the AL giving Pedroia a hard run at RoY. He's in the top ten in BA (which doesn't hurt among the electorate) and shows up on Web Gems enough to get noticed.

As far as the MVP voting, I think the Red Sox will have the most players receiving votes somewhere on the ballot, but it'll be hard to argue against A-Rod first and Ordonez second.
   33. Valentine Posted: December 01, 2007 at 03:31 AM (#2630308)
Just wanted to resurrect this thread to remind people that Matsuzaka WAS NOT A MISTAKE!

He tired in September and scuffled through the end of the season, but through mid-August he was among the top pitchers in the league.
   34. Darren Posted: December 01, 2007 at 03:35 AM (#2630311)
He was among the top pitchers in the league for the year. Durable and above average--a rare combination that placed him 12th in PRC.

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