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   1. Paxton Crawford Ranch Posted: August 16, 2010 at 03:40 PM (#3617262)
I don't think we can expect Pedroia to play every day when he gets back, not after being in a cast for several weeks and with Lowrie playing as well as he has. That K rate really is something, but almost seems too good to believe. I'm just not sure where 13.5% is coming from after entering the season at 26.8%, although his numbers in the minors were better -- 17.9% overall, 19.3% in AA/AAA. ZiPS rest of season has him at 20.9%, which feels about right. Depending on how much of this improvement is real, the Sox could really have something here. This Edes piece talks about Scutaro having a chronic nerve issue in his neck that was causing him to lose feeling in his arms earlier this year. Perhaps he (and more importantly) the Red Sox would be better served by using him as in a utility role.
   2. Nasty Nate Posted: August 16, 2010 at 04:05 PM (#3617284)
The Sox need to determine whether Lowrie is their shortstop of the future.


I have a big imagination, but I don't think it's big enough for me to imagine that Jed Lowrie is the guy that ends the Sox-shortstop-flux that has been going on for 6 years.
   3. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: August 16, 2010 at 04:14 PM (#3617288)
I don't think this is any kind of problem to worry about. There's going to be plenty of PT for Lowrie. The K rate is great, but what's impressed me is the line-drive power. SSS for sure, and I haven't seen any numbers to reinforce my impression, but goodness he seems to be striking the ball well.

Anyway. Pedroia will need days off coming back from this injury. Scutaro has had what, 3 'routine' days off so far all season? He can definitely afford to get a fair share of rest down the stretch. Then you've got regular days off for Beltre AND somebody to spell Lowell's hip (Lowrie filled in at 1B the other day, not totally sure if the Sox see him as a regular backup there, probably more of a third-string option, but even then Victor can't play every day either)... I'm sure Lowrie will be able to play 4 games or so a week without Tito having to try to find him spots. Basically anything that eats into Eric Patterson's PAs even the slightest bit is a plus to me.

Speaking of which, anybody have any perspective on why Patterson started in CF with Kalish in LF on Saturday, then vice versa on Sunday? I could see potentially flipping LF/RF based on two dramatically different starting pitchers (Lester and Matsuzaka, respectively), but LF/CF?
   4. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: August 16, 2010 at 04:26 PM (#3617296)
I think the Red Sox are trying to figure out if Kalish can play a good CF for them in 2011, either as a starter or as a "supersub" who plays a lot, but at all three outfield positions.

One of the good things that is coming out of this season is that the Sox are getting a chance to give some players who could be a meaningful part of their future enough playing time to get some answers. Kalish has looked, generally, very good. Lowrie has looked very good. Doubront has, on balance, looked good. Richardson and Bowden will chance throughout the rest of 2010. Saltalamacchia will get some looks.

But I think the team wants to figure out what they have here in Kalish...
   5. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 16, 2010 at 06:28 PM (#3617400)
I have a big imagination, but I don't think it's big enough for me to imagine that Jed Lowrie is the guy that ends the Sox-shortstop-flux that has been going on for 6 years.
I mean, it was basically the team's plan heading into the 2009 season. Lowrie certainly appears to be the same guy he was then, except he's hitting better (as is not unreasonable to expect from a 26-year-old). Lowrie's had problems staying healthy, but I don't find it all that hard to imagine a situation where Lowrie's health issues clear up for a few years.

There are obviously major questions with Lowrie - not only his health, but also his ability to play shortstop at a major league level. I don't think that the most likely outcome here is that Lowrie is the everyday shortstop for the Sox from 2011-2014. But I'm not sure why it's unimaginable.

EDIT: also, I'm surprised people expect Pedroia will be resting. Pedroia never rests. Have there been reports he'll get time off?
   6. villageidiom Posted: August 16, 2010 at 06:35 PM (#3617404)
After this season they likely will no longer have a logjam at 3B, if that figures into it. Anyone able to assess whether Lowrie or Scutaro is viable at third? Is it even a good idea?

Regardless, the issue with Lowrie is, and has been, health. Nothing that happens in the next 1.5 months - or 2.5 months? - will resolve that in a way that cements Lowrie as the shortstop (or 3B) of the future.
   7. plim Posted: August 16, 2010 at 06:50 PM (#3617411)
no one's mentioned sss yet?
   8. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: August 16, 2010 at 06:52 PM (#3617412)
I can't imagine either Scutaro or Lowrie hitting enough to carry third.

Frankly, I think shortstop for the Sox is pretty well set for the forseeable future, it is Scutaro in 2011 then Iglesias after that unless he totally craps out. I think there is virtually no chance that Scutaro isn't there again in 2011 (and I've been satisfied with his performance, not sure what others think). Iglesias might crap out but for now, I would expect to see him at shortstop in April, 2012.

I think Lowrie is a tweener. He doesn't have the glove for shortstop and he doesn't have the bat for third. I think his future is to be what Bill Hall has been this year rather than as an everyday guy.

EDIT: I'm not saying Iglesias is "can't miss" just that unless he hits .207 in the minors he is going to break camp in 2012 as the starter and he is going to have some rope similar to what Pedroia had back in 2007. The Sox are going to give him every chance to prove he does not belong.
   9. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: August 16, 2010 at 08:06 PM (#3617489)
Agree wholeheartedly with #8 - if Lowrie can stay healthy, I can see him playing a lot of games in 2011, all around the diamond. A switch hitter with a little pop, solid defense at almost any poisition, solid command of the strike zone, under team control at cheap dollars...that's a pretty valuable guy. It is also possible another team might see him as a starter at 2B for them, too, if he would be part of a trade this off-season.

FWIW, I've been really pleased with what Bill Hall has delivered this year. He's been better than I thought he would be, and he's made it a little easier during all the injuries to keep a little continuity to the lineup.
   10. villageidiom Posted: August 16, 2010 at 08:26 PM (#3617507)
FWIW, I've been really pleased with what Bill Hall has delivered this year. He's been better than I thought he would be, and he's made it a little easier during all the injuries to keep a little continuity to the lineup.
Harveys told us he'd hit, and he was right. Hall hasn't been as good defensively (subjectively speaking) as I would've liked, but he's made up for quality with quantity - er, versatility.
   11. Textbook Editor Posted: August 16, 2010 at 10:08 PM (#3617589)
Agree that Lowrie may well get a lot of PT all over the place when Pedroia comes off the DL.

The most obvious roster move is to release/demote Patterson, but they seem to like his ability to be a 5th OF/6th IF type, which is all well and good as long as he doesn't play over Hall or Lowrie (who are both better).

I suspect, though, they'll demote Richardson instead (or Bowden, but I much prefer demoting Richardson), since right now they've got 13 pitchers which is more than they usually carry.

The real question for me is what moves to they make when Okajima/Varitek/Cash come off the DL...

Cash - I suspect will end August still on the DL or on a rehab assignment & be called up when 40-man rosters expand. The guess would be they'd keep him on the DL, since they need DL slots filled as of 8/31 to allow for roster manipulations for a possible playoff roster.

Okajima - Again, I sort of suspect he'll remain on the DL as of 8/31 or on a rehab assignment. There's no reason at this point to bring him back before rosters expand.

Varitek - I suppose he'd replace Salty, but here again I suspect he'll be on the DL through 9/1.

Ellsbury's likely done for the year; I do suspect they're going to try to get Kalish PT in CF to see how he does.

Despite how annoying this year has been, I have been quite happy with how we've been able to bring up so many guys and have them at least make useful, replacement-level production (or, in many cases, above-replacement production). This bodes well for 2011.

As I said in another thread, they almost have to go 9-0 on this homestand to have any shot at the WC, barring a complete collapse by TB or NY.
   12. John DiFool2 Posted: August 17, 2010 at 12:31 AM (#3617716)
I think his future is to be what Bill Hall has been this year rather than as an everyday guy.


I think he can be one of those utility everyday guys. Give him some outfield reps somewhere in the offseason, let Papi go, and rotate regulars through the DH slot while Jed fills in for them 5-6 days a week, like Sparky did with Tony Phillips. Or would signing a big thumper for the full-time DH role be a better option?
   13. Dan Posted: August 17, 2010 at 01:01 AM (#3617743)
I imagine that Lowrie and Scutaro will job-share at SS like Crisp and Ellsbury did in CF at the end of 2007 and in 2008. And I'd be fine with that continuing into next season. They're both flexible enough to play anywhere on the infield, and one of them should probably get some reps in the OF to make the situation even more flexible.

I really can't see either of them hitting enough to be pencilled in as a starter at 3B, and I expect the Sox to re-sign Beltre, or failing that they'll probably move Youkilis back to 3B and get Dunn or trade for Adrian Gonzalez or something. I also don't know why anyone would think Lowrie doesn't have the glove to stick at SS and call him a "tweener". He's always looked fine at SS, and the stats like his defense in his limited time in the majors. I think early in his minor league career he was a bad defender, but he's improved and the scouting reports lagged behind that improvement. His minor league totalzone numbers fit this narrative too.
   14. Hugh Jorgan Posted: August 17, 2010 at 01:37 AM (#3617770)
I expect the Sox to re-sign Beltre

Really? I'd be curious as to what you think will be required to get this done...remembering Boras will be whispering in his ear. I'm hoping he'll ignore Boras somewhat and realise that he is made for Fenway and take the fair offer that the Sox throw out there.
   15. Dan Posted: August 17, 2010 at 01:48 AM (#3617787)
I imagine something like 3/36 with a vesting option year for another 12-13M would get Beltre. There's really not much competition in the market for third basemen this year. The only team with money who will be needing a third baseman will be Detroit, unless I'm missing someone obvious. The A's could try and sign him again, but he didn't seem much interested in going there, and it's hard to envision them topping a $12M per year offer.
   16. Hugh Jorgan Posted: August 17, 2010 at 02:06 AM (#3617800)
I imagine something like 3/36

I could live with that. I can see him being productive for another 2-3 years.
Though some don't think Lowrie suitable for SS, with Beltre at 3rd, it would make it easier for anyone to play ss.
   17. Srul Itza Posted: August 17, 2010 at 02:06 AM (#3617801)
*By my count, vi’s numbers call for the Red Sox to go 24-9 over the next month. And that’s just to win 96, which may well not be enough to catch Tampa.


By day's end, Tampa and the Yankees will be tied, and given the way the Yankees are playing, it may be more than good enough to catch them.
   18. Dan Posted: August 17, 2010 at 02:11 AM (#3617808)
I really do think the Sox have a better shot at catching the Yankees than catching Tampa Bay. To my eyes, the Yankees rotation isn't looking too good at the moment, but they've got a sizable lead. But if Burnett and Vazquez don't get straightened out they could be in trouble. A lot will hinge on whether or not Pettitte can come back from the DL pitching like he was earlier this year.
   19. Textbook Editor Posted: August 17, 2010 at 02:57 AM (#3617870)
F'ing Valverde. Piece of crap.
   20. Textbook Editor Posted: August 17, 2010 at 03:01 AM (#3617872)
Thank god Jeter remembered how to GIDP.

I agree that NY might be slightly easier to catch, but any discussion of catching either team is going to require at least going 5-1 against them in the 6 head-to-head games left with each.
   21. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: August 17, 2010 at 03:08 AM (#3617876)
I really do think the Sox have a better shot at catching the Yankees than catching Tampa Bay. To my eyes, the Yankees rotation isn't looking too good at the moment, but they've got a sizable lead. But if Burnett and Vazquez don't get straightened out they could be in trouble. A lot will hinge on whether or not Pettitte can come back from the DL pitching like he was earlier this year.

The Yankees have so many holes in their lineup right now it's like a ####### slice of Swiss cheese. They just got shut out for the second straight game by a pitcher facing them for the first time. (OK, they got one run in the ninth on a single and three walks.) A-Rod's hurt, Swisher got replaced by a pinch-hitter, Berkman's hurt, Posada's part time, Cervelli hits like a career AA player and has cost them two games in the past week with bonehead errors, Jeter kills more rallies than Flit kills flies, Vazquez's arm is dead, Pettitte's rehab has been set back, and Cliff Lee is pitching for the Rangers. And stop laughing!

-----------------

Thank god Jeter remembered how to GIDP.

So nice, the ############ did it twice. And wipe that smirk off your face!
   22. Textbook Editor Posted: August 17, 2010 at 03:20 AM (#3617880)
#21--Your handle reminded me: I've been meaning to ask if anyone's caught the Pavement reunion tour, and is it worth going to?
   23. Ray (RDP) Posted: August 17, 2010 at 03:26 AM (#3617883)
The Yankees have so many holes in their lineup right now it's like a ####### slice of Swiss cheese. They just got shut out for the second straight game by a pitcher facing them for the first time. (OK, they got one run in the ninth on a single and three walks.)


Is this the-Yankees-struggle-against-first-time-pitchers thing a real effect, or just selective memory? I've been hearing it for several years, despite all the new hitters in the lineup. Has anyone actually looked into it?
   24. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 17, 2010 at 03:33 AM (#3617888)
Neyer looked at it.

But I don't think Andy was referring to that. The Yanks have been shut down by a pitcher facing them for the first time two times in a row and the lineup has looked unbelievably terrible. I don't think Andy is claiming that this is a consistent occurrence, just that it is a problem right now.
   25. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: August 17, 2010 at 12:04 PM (#3617978)
The Yankees have so many holes in their lineup right now it's like a ####### slice of Swiss cheese. They just got shut out for the second straight game by a pitcher facing them for the first time. (OK, they got one run in the ninth on a single and three walks.) A-Rod's hurt, Swisher got replaced by a pinch-hitter, Berkman's hurt, Posada's part time, Cervelli hits like a career AA player and has cost them two games in the past week with bonehead errors, Jeter kills more rallies than Flit kills flies, Vazquez's arm is dead, Pettitte's rehab has been set back, and Cliff Lee is pitching for the Rangers.

Just to put the cherry on the cake, Nick Johnson re-injured his wrist during batting practice. Like who didn't know that....

And Swisher has "tennis elbow." What do Red Sox fans know about pain?

(/ducks)
   26. tjm1 Posted: August 17, 2010 at 12:22 PM (#3617980)
Maybe I'm crazy, but I'd like to see Pedroia play left field when he comes back, with Lowrie sticking in the lineup at second. They definitely should have both of them in the lineup almost every day. Lowrie's not as good a 2B as a healthy Pedroia, but Pedroia's going to come back at 85-90% because that's the kind of guy he is, and I'd rather get him fully healed before he gets slid into on the double play. When he's 100%, flip them back.
   27. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: August 17, 2010 at 02:13 PM (#3618088)
Maybe I'm crazy, but I'd like to see Pedroia play left field when he comes back,


Anything that brings Pedroia closer to Beltre should be avoided. Think about it - novice LF, who has a reputation for going all out, comes charging in to catch a pop up...and breaks a few ribs slamming into the very solid 3B who happens to have great range. No thanks. You are crazy.
   28. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: August 17, 2010 at 02:53 PM (#3618136)
Yeah. That's crazy. Lowrie's bat isn't so phenomenal that you want to move around an MVP-caliber player to a brand new position when he's among the best in the majors at his real position.

And [7] - yes they have.
   29. qwrfr Green Posted: August 18, 2010 at 08:54 AM (#3619005)
“Dustin Pedroia returns on Tuesday, and surely will play just
about every game at 2B from here to the end of the season”
Finally, there is good news that can cheer me up.
I've been down for a long time,
and really need to cheer myself up
and have some fun.
Calcium Hypochlorite Suppliers
sodium dichloroisocyanurate Manufacturers
   30. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: August 18, 2010 at 11:57 AM (#3619023)
#29 has a koan quality to it.

I think the Sox can catch the Yankees, but it'll take some doing. I'd be a lot more confident if Youkilis weren't gone for the season.
   31. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 18, 2010 at 02:12 PM (#3619094)
I assumed that those chemicals were something that people make money off, like pain meds or viagras or something.

It turns out they're disinfectants and water purifiers. Where, exactly, is the angle in spamming those?
   32. tfbg9 Posted: August 19, 2010 at 03:01 AM (#3619963)
Four thoughts:

Lowrie's lifetime line in 380ish PA's: .245/.330/.395/.724. That's good for a 86 OPS+
Settle down boys. He's already 26 as well.

They need to pick-up Papi's option. Bite your tounge John Difool!

I don't think they get to keep Beltre for 3/36 with a vesting 4th, but that'd be a good move
I believe. He's colorful and good.

Sadly, Hall is gone, I think. Somebody's gonna offer him a lot more than the Red Sox are going to. Too bad, he's my favorite new Sock. The Sox will probably fill the utility role with Lowrie.
   33. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: August 19, 2010 at 11:10 PM (#3620811)
Lowrie starting at second tonight because Pedroia is sore...and Salty goes on the DL (and to the hospital) with an infection??
   34. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: August 19, 2010 at 11:16 PM (#3620815)
Re:Hall...Voros predicted in a thread dated 2/21/10 that Hall would put up an OPS+ of 93 this year, which was his career average. Right now I believe he's at 105.
   35. tfbg9 Posted: August 19, 2010 at 11:32 PM (#3620835)
Brilliant 1st sentence in that topic into paragraph, MCoA.
   36. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: August 20, 2010 at 01:26 AM (#3620935)
Ignorance is bad enough, but apparently you have to kick a team while they're down, too.
   37. Spaceman Posted: August 20, 2010 at 02:56 AM (#3621021)
If the Sox win every series for the rest of the season they'll wind up with 96 wins, while also gaining 2 games on TB and NY. That's not enough. Beckett and Lackey simply must step up. I realize that's tough for both right now, for whatever reasons, but if they fail, the team fails.
   38. Dale Sams Posted: August 20, 2010 at 03:06 AM (#3621033)
At 53 games out, I predicted the Sox would go 28-25. They're one game ahead of that right now.
   39. Textbook Editor Posted: August 20, 2010 at 03:42 AM (#3621046)
#37--Spaceman, they simply have to go 5-1 or 6-0 against either TB or NY--possibly both--in addition to winning the rest of the series... coupled with a mini-collapse by either NY or TB. Sure, in theory it could happen, just like the 1995 Angels blew the AL West, but you don't want to lay good money down on those odds.

We're another couple of Beckett starts away from playing the kids in September and to be honest that's fine by me. We need to especially sort out what might be useful internally for the pen next year, and for starter #6 and #7 when Beckett and Dice-K go in for their annual 15-day DL trip due to suckiness. I don't want any MDC around next year, for starters...

And I'm going to say it here now: I almost wish they went out and made a F'ing-A trade for a 3rd ace. Right now we have two #1s and three #4s and a knuckleballer. I'd go all-in again and try to get King Felix. As I said in the chatter, my fear now is 2011 is like 2002 all over again.
   40. Dan Posted: August 20, 2010 at 04:54 AM (#3621068)
If you really want another top end starter, I think you're better off breaking the bank for Cliff Lee than trading the farm for Felix Hernandez. It'd be really nice to have another lefty in the rotation too, with how the Yankees and Rays are both worse against LHP. But of course the Yankees are probably going after Lee too, so the Sox probably won't be willing to top their offer (think Teixeira). Apparently they'd rather pay $18M to #2 starters who are past their prime than step up and pay a little more for truly dominant guys, since they preferred Lackey and Beckett to going after CC, etc.
   41. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: August 20, 2010 at 05:34 AM (#3621078)
I'd still go after Lee if I were the Sox - just to drive up his price.

Another great Beckett effort today btw
   42. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: August 20, 2010 at 05:56 AM (#3621084)
Go after Lee, and pay the price.
   43. tjm1 Posted: August 20, 2010 at 10:35 AM (#3621106)
Lowrie's lifetime line in 380ish PA's: .245/.330/.395/.724. That's good for a 86 OPS+
Settle down boys. He's already 26 as well.


Sure, but that includes an awful stretch last year when he was trying to play through hand problems. That never works. The question is whether he's a better hitter than Darnell McDonald, not whether he's a star player. His career record to date, majors and minors, suggests that something like .285/.375/.450 is quite a reasonable expectation. That makes him one of the Red Sox top 9 hitters right now, and I think he's a good enough athlete that he could slide into any position but pitcher and catcher well enough that he needs to be playing every day right now. When everyone's back and healthy, yeah, he's probably a utility guy. Maybe he should be in a Tony Phillips role both now and next year, playing all over the field, but playing almost every day.
   44. Spaceman Posted: August 20, 2010 at 12:32 PM (#3621125)
they simply have to go 5-1 or 6-0 against either TB or NY--possibly both--in addition to winning the rest of the series

Agreed, that's why it ain't over - they do control their own fate. But they're not going to go 5-1 or 6-0 vs either of those two unless Beckett and Lackey step up. Farrell needs to fix this ####; they're both too good for this to be happening week after week.
   45. Dave Cyprian Posted: August 20, 2010 at 09:02 PM (#3621629)
Pedroia returns to DL
"Today it was a lot worse" than it was on Thursday, he told reporters before Friday's game... To fill Pedroia's roster spot, the Red Sox called up 22-year-old infielder Yamaico Navarro from Pawtucket.
   46. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 20, 2010 at 11:21 PM (#3621800)
Jesus shitballs.

I had no idea the power of the jinx was so strong with me. Even after this season, I just assumed that Pedroia was coming back healthy.
   47. Dale Sams Posted: August 21, 2010 at 12:14 AM (#3621831)
Whad Lester do to you Matt? Hasn't he suffered enough?
   48. Textbook Editor Posted: August 21, 2010 at 12:58 AM (#3621869)
I'm waiting for the rain of frogs to settle in over Fenway. Should happen any day now.
   49. Dale Sams Posted: August 21, 2010 at 01:41 AM (#3621894)
The Blue Jays have just single-handedly cost the Jimmy Fund about $200,000.
   50. Srul Itza Posted: August 21, 2010 at 02:05 AM (#3621900)
Well, at least that resolves the logjam.
   51. tfbg9 Posted: August 22, 2010 at 05:09 AM (#3622583)
suggests that something like .285/.375/.450 is quite a reasonable expectation


This seems awfully high...maybe for his best year or two, perhaps.
   52. Darren Posted: August 22, 2010 at 01:49 PM (#3622633)
Logjam solved!

I agree that the 285/.375/.450 is a crazy high expectation for Lowrie. I'd say it's more like 340/430, which if pretty good, considering that he's a perfectly decent SS by just about all measures we have.
   53. Textbook Editor Posted: August 22, 2010 at 02:03 PM (#3622639)
And Craig Breslow costs us a game on TB... 38 to go and 5.5 back. Yup, we basically need to go 11-1 or 12-0 against TB and NY to have a realistic shot at this, barring a complete collapse by TB/NY.
   54. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 22, 2010 at 03:22 PM (#3622669)
I think I take a backseat to no one in having given up on this team, but I disagree that they need to go 11-1 or 12-0. What they need, most likely, is to go 6-0 or 5-1 against one of the Yankees or Rays, and not get killed by the other. They only need to catch one.

I've really liked what I've seen from Lowrie this year. He's been patient, but he seems more aggressive in good counts, and he's making more contact when he does swing. It's a great combination. 375/450 is all-star stuff from a middle infielder, and I don't think that's a realistic expectation for anything other than a career year. But I watch him up there, and it's easy to start thinking he's pretty great.

Obviously, it's "SSS", but I think Lowrie's going to be extremely hard to project, statistically, due to the way injuries destroyed his last season. While one can't expect Lowrie to remain at full health, his numbers while playing (idiotically) through a wrist injury can't really be seen as predictive either. So we don't really have any good data on Lowrie that's less than two years old, and he's cut down his strikeouts by a huge amount, which is the sort of change that is possible, and would have a huge impact on his projected quality going forward.
   55. chris p Posted: August 22, 2010 at 03:39 PM (#3622676)
I've really liked what I've seen from Lowrie this year. He's been patient, but he seems more aggressive in good counts, and he's making more contact when he does swing. It's a great combination. 375/450 is all-star stuff from a middle infielder, and I don't think that's a realistic expectation for anything other than a career year. But I watch him up there, and it's easy to start thinking he's pretty great.

lowrie's been flat out destroying the ball since he's been up. he's showing patience, good contact ability, and power to all fields ... from both sides of the plate. what's not to like? i mean, pitchers are probably going to adjust a little bit once the scouting reports catch up, but i don't see why he can't hit 375/450 if he's healthy. they've got to play him as much as possible from here on out and find him playing time next season.
   56. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: August 23, 2010 at 05:57 PM (#3623563)
Lowrie has looked fantastic, no question about it but SSS has to be the phrase that pays right now. If he can do 375/450 then giddy-up but in 1600+ minor league PA he has a .380/.445 line so that seems optimistic to me.
   57. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 23, 2010 at 06:32 PM (#3623641)
suggests that something like .285/.375/.450 is quite a reasonable expectation

Yeah, I'm a Lowrie fan, but I think this is jumping the gun quite a bit too. I tend to think .270/.350/.425 or so is more where we're headed - which, mind you, is fine production from a middle infielder. .375/.450 seems closer to the top of his range. Still, his stats (and 13/7 BB/K ratio) are encouraging.
   58. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: August 25, 2010 at 09:26 AM (#3625094)
Jed's not dead baby, Jed's not dead.
   59. OCD SS Posted: August 25, 2010 at 12:13 PM (#3625113)
I'm a big Lowrie fan (and more than a little late to this thread), but to me the comparison should be if he'll be better than Scutaro next year. Even if Scutaro's problems stem from playing through an injury, I haven't been convinced that he's going to go back to his 2009 heights and would give Jed a shot at the starting SS job.

I think the Sox's big problem going forward is 3B. I don't think I'd sign Beltre to a long enough contract to satisfy Boras, and the rest of the options are not appealing (especially since I don't think Youk is really viable at 3B anymore).
   60. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: August 25, 2010 at 01:11 PM (#3625138)
How much is Beltre going to be asking for? And how much would you give him? I think he's going to age well, seems athletic enough and he seems very well matched for Fenway.
   61. OCD SS Posted: August 25, 2010 at 03:02 PM (#3625247)
Boras is his agent, so I think you have to assume it will be a hefty price tag. If he could be had for 3 years I'd be fine with it, but I'd be worried that if his reflexes or athleticism drop a tick the corresponding performance drop would be magnified. I'm not sure his approach bodes well for holding his value into is mid to late 30's.

I guess it really depends if there are other teams who really feel like they need a 3Bman. The Angels might be in, and I can see the Tigers (always a Boras favorite to give extra years to an aging player) being in as well...
   62. tfbg9 Posted: August 26, 2010 at 02:39 AM (#3626071)
Tough loss toight.

The Sox are are now 5-12 in games they have seen fit to let Wakefield to start. They are 6-21(!) in games
where he has been allowed to pitch at all.

THAT'S SIX AND TWENTY ONE!!!

In games not started by Tim Wakefield, the Boston Red Sox have played to a .615 winning percentage, despite
the crazy ammount of hurt ballplayers they've had. Beckett has been hurt, and when he's been healthy enough to pitch, he's stunk. But Wake's simply killed this team.

And BTW, Tim Wakefield, when you neutralize his stats, is a lifetime .493 pitcher..."solidly average" my ass. More accurately,
solidly mediocre.
   63. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 26, 2010 at 03:31 AM (#3626086)
Isn't average about .500 by definition? And isn't mediocre also pretty much average?
   64. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: August 26, 2010 at 03:48 AM (#3626091)
And BTW, Tim Wakefield, when you neutralize his stats, is a lifetime .493 pitcher.


Damn, he must be one clutch son of a ##### then.
   65. Textbook Editor Posted: August 26, 2010 at 03:58 AM (#3626095)
What about overpaying for Beltre for a 2-year deal? 2 years, $38 million. Boras gets to claim a high AAV, the Red Sox aren't hamstrung long-term...

As for Lowrie, I would love, love, love him to perform as a Gil McDougald-type for the Red Sox in 2011, filling in at all 4 IF spots. That assumes we bring back Beltre, of course. If not, Lowrie as a starting 3B wouldn't be the worst thing in the world--his upside is probably less power than the 2003/2004 version of Mueller, but he's a guy who could get you 30-40 doubles and a good OBP.

MCoA--I think this sentiment:

What they need, most likely, is to go 6-0 or 5-1 against one of the Yankees or Rays, and not get killed by the other. They only need to catch one.


while true in the abstract, cannot be the approach the Red Sox take. They need, really, to try to catch BOTH teams, because there's no way of knowing which team might be the one to falter enough to allow them to catch them. (You also don't want to rely on either TB or NY having to go 6-1 or 5-2 against the other in their 7 games remaining to help us catch whoever the odd team out is.)


The other problem is that the BOS-TB games--all 6--take place BEFORE the 7 games that NY-TB have left between them (and BEFORE the 6 games the Red Sox have left with NY). So the Yankees can more or less sit back and see what develops in the BOS-TB games and then plan accordingly. Should the Red Sox be lucky enough to go 5-1 or 6-0 against Tampa, it would utterly transform the WC race (we'd assume), but it would also leave NY--assuming it plays decent baseball--in a rather commanding position with regard to a playoff spot/the division... So much so that--perhaps--the Yankees would have such a commanding lead on a playoff spot that they start resting guys, etc. for at least the last 3 of those TB games--and those 6 games we would really, really need NY to win, preferably at least at a 4-3 or (better) 5-2 rate.

I still think it's more likely that the Yankees falter than the Rays, but again, if we don't beat up on TB in the next 2 weeks, TB won't go into NY really desperate for wins, and if TB can go 5-2 against NY while we win against other teams, and then we go 5-1 against NY at the end of the year... Maybe we have a shot at either team.

But none of this changes the fact it's likely we'll need at least 98 wins to even get a playoff game out of this. To get to 98 wins, we need to go 25-9 from here on out. Not impossible, but you can't go 5-1 against TB and then 3-3 against NY (or vice versa); that would mean you'd have to go 17-5 against everyone else to get to 98 wins, and I have no confidence we won't blow 5 games against the other teams on the schedule from here on out.

Sorry for the long post; I think I'm struggling to come to grips with the increasingly likely fact that this ain't gonna be our year.
   66. dirk Posted: August 26, 2010 at 04:03 AM (#3626097)
in a spot start by wake against one of the best pitchers in baseball it was one hell of a close game. i'm not going to crap on a guy that can show up last minute and keep us in a game that by all accounts should be a gimme for the mariners.
   67. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: August 26, 2010 at 04:28 AM (#3626113)
So tired of these #### umps who keep making worse and worse calls until somebody snaps, then throwing them out of the game.
   68. Chip Posted: August 26, 2010 at 05:02 AM (#3626127)
Here's a fun cherrypicked tidbit: since the weekend in San Francisco when Buchholz, Pedroia, and Martinez all went on the DL, in starts by the putative top three in the rotation coming into the season - Beckett, Lester, Lackey - the Sox are only .500. Not even Dice-K level of production. On the pitching side, Buchholz has been carrying this team by himself since coming back from the hamstring injury. (6-1 team results in his starts, 1.90 ERA).
   69. Textbook Editor Posted: August 26, 2010 at 05:31 AM (#3626132)
BTW--If Pedroia winds up having to have surgery on that foot, someone in the medical staff needs to be fired.

I'm getting a bit worried Lester's either running out of gas or might be a bit hurt. If they jigger things to allow him extra rest the rest of the way, that's fine by me.

Beckett simply should be on an 85-pitch limit the rest of the season. Wakefield is going to be needed to pitch some key innings. A spot start by him in the right spot could give the whole rotation a blow, and he's likely to be needed to come in on those days Beckett gets to 85 pitches in 3+ innings.

A 25-9 run is not impossible, but it's improbable. While I'm upset we're likely to miss the playoffs, the fact that so many call-ups helped us/have proved useful makes me hopeful for the future in a way I haven't been in a while; it's taken a bit of the sting out of it.
   70. villageidiom Posted: August 26, 2010 at 10:55 AM (#3626154)
They are 6-21(!) in games where he has been allowed to pitch at all.
The team is 1-9 when he pitches in relief. He's 1-1 (the one loss being his one pitch 11th inning performance), and in the other 8 appearances the team was behind when he entered. So... it's all his fault?
BTW--If Pedroia winds up having to have surgery on that foot, someone in the medical staff needs to be fired.
I assume someone will be fired anyway.
   71. Spaceman Posted: August 26, 2010 at 04:18 PM (#3626462)
But none of this changes the fact it's likely we'll need at least 98 wins to even get a playoff game out of this

I appreciate your writeup but I don't get that statement. In order for the Yankees/TB to win 99 games they must go 21-13. That number alone would be difficult for either, and is made even more difficult with their remaining series vs the AL East.

I think I'm with MCoA on this. The Sox must continue winning series and also take control of their fate; they must put a beat-down on NY or TB, either of which is certainly possible with their pitching.
   72. TomH Posted: August 26, 2010 at 04:40 PM (#3626489)
Tampa Bay 78 49
NY Yankees 78 49
Boston RSx 73 55

If Bos wins 97 games, they will have gone 24-10 to get there.
Which means, likey, 4-2 vs each of NY and TB.
If NY and TB split their 6 (?) head-to-head, that leaves

Tampa Bay 83 56
NY Yankees 83 56
Boston RSx 97 65

Meaning Bos makes the playoffs if EITHER one of them goes 13-10 or worse in other games. Which is somewhat likely. if one of them goes 16-7 and the other 14-9, there is a playoff.

97 wins should do it. 96 might.

Neither of those is likely, given the DL list. I'd peg it 12% for Bos, 95% Tampa, 93% for NY.
   73. SoSH U at work Posted: August 26, 2010 at 04:43 PM (#3626491)
The team is 1-9 when he pitches in relief. He's 1-1 (the one loss being his one pitch 11th inning performance), and in the other 8 appearances the team was behind when he entered. So... it's all his fault?


Yup, including the game the Sox trailed the Yanks 7-5 when he entered, Wake threw 2.1 scoreless innings and Boston grabbed the lead, and then Papelbon coughed up four runs in the ninth for the loss. You don't truly appreciate the negative waves that Timmy radiates through the entire roster when he toes the rubber.

Teddy has moved beyond his simple irrational dislike for Wake into what I can only imagine is intentional self-parody. At least I hope it's intentional.
   74. villageidiom Posted: August 26, 2010 at 05:01 PM (#3626507)
Teddy has moved beyond his simple irrational dislike for Wake into what I can only imagine is intentional self-parody. At least I hope it's intentional.
I didn't have a problem with what he wrote this time, other than lumping in the team's record in his relief appearances. Much of Tim Wakefield's lack of success this year has been due to Tim Wakefield.

I also agree with dirk in #66, especially considering they effectively played without Beltre, and had possibly their worst defensive 1B in V-Mart.
   75. Spaceman Posted: August 26, 2010 at 05:08 PM (#3626515)
Much of Tim Wakefield's lack of success this year has been due to Tim Wakefield's age and health

But, you know, I doubt Timmah held Theo at knifepoint to get the gig, which means he was asked, and then signed for very little money.
   76. SoSH U at work Posted: August 26, 2010 at 05:15 PM (#3626527)
I didn't have a problem with what he wrote this time, other than lumping in the team's record in his relief appearances.


You mean the part he repeated for emphasis, complete with boldface, all caps and exclamation points.
   77. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: August 26, 2010 at 05:58 PM (#3626585)
since the weekend in San Francisco when Buchholz, Pedroia, and Martinez all went on the DL


That's where it all went to hell. Teams are going to have injuries and slumps to overcome but starting that day the Sox have basically played everyday missing at least 2 of their expected 4 best hitters (Pedroia, Youkilis, Martinez).

thru June 24 (arrival in San Francisco)

44-30 (96-66 pace)
5.5 runs/game

since June 25

29-25 (87-75 pace)
4.4 runs/game

It's not that hard to see that series in San Francisco as the moment things went to hell. Yeah, injuries to Cameron and Ellsbury and the like hurt but you can't lose 2/3rds of your core and expect to play at the same level.
   78. Spaceman Posted: August 26, 2010 at 06:23 PM (#3626614)
The Yankees essentially lost Arod(.818 OPS), Jeter(.727 OPS) and Posada(Cervelli) for the entire year, but I don't hear them whining. Of course it's helped that the team actually pitched to expectations, or possibly better than.

Anywho, Wakefield. By the heat maps, it's looks to me as if knuckler ain't dancin as in the past.
   79. Spaceman Posted: August 26, 2010 at 11:33 PM (#3626898)
Lester
Beckett
Lackey
Buchholz
Dice

If you can't finish it with that staff, don't beitch, don't whine and don't cry.

Red Sox vs Cardinals. It will be done.
   80. Bad Fish Posted: August 27, 2010 at 02:50 AM (#3627017)
I feel like our rotation is starting to finally settle in, the guys from Paw have shored up the pen, and Lowrie arrived in a nick of time. Everything feels like it is starting gel, despite all the hardship. I am still confident.

All they can do is focus on their effort. If they win series after series they will have done all they can do to make the playoffs. Obviously we need one of NY or TB to stumble some, but we can't control that. If the Sox are within 3 with two weeks out they have a legit shot at a playoff spot, if they don't make it then the risk associated with constructing a team that will win 95 games will be exploited.
   81. Darren Posted: August 27, 2010 at 07:17 PM (#3627834)
The Yankees essentially lost Arod(.818 OPS), Jeter(.727 OPS) and Posada(Cervelli) for the entire year, but I don't hear them whining. Of course it's helped that the team actually pitched to expectations, or possibly better than.


By this standard, the Red Sox have lost Beckett, Drew, Martinez, Lackey, Ellsbury, Cameron.... etc. for the whole year.

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