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   1. Toby Posted: December 01, 2006 at 04:51 AM (#2248812)
And for what it's worth, ZIPS likes both Loretta and Trot to improve:

Loretta
ZIPS 302/367/404/771
2006 285/345/361/706

Trot
ZIPS 272/371/415/786
2006 268/373/394/767
   2. 1k5v3L Posted: December 01, 2006 at 04:54 AM (#2248815)
Well, ZIPS loved Loretta in 2006 as well. Ditto for Pedroia. ZIPS must like scrappy BOS infielders.

I can't believe Trot slugged under .400 last year. The steroid withdrawal must have really hit him.
   3. HowardMegdal Posted: December 01, 2006 at 04:55 AM (#2248816)
I certainly believe when things get woolly, you need to try a little tenderness.
   4. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 01, 2006 at 04:59 AM (#2248818)
My quick take is that the Sox shouldn't off to either of them. Neither has a role on the roster - do you take atbats away from Wily Mo or Drew and give them to Nixon? The Sox already have Eric Hinske for the role that Trot would play, and Hinske's ok with being a part-timer. Having Hinske and Trot under contract would be a waste of a roster spot. Similarly with Loretta/Cora/Pedroia.

I'd choose to let both of them go, no arbitration.
   5. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:11 AM (#2248829)
1998 was the most recent time that I found a Red Sox platoon; and that's sort of cheating. Reggie Jefferson (Hit Cat!) and Jim Leyritz shared DH duties for 70-something games that year.

Jimy Williams seemed to give everyone playing time, but I don't think that he really platooned. Why haven't there been many platoons lately? Bigger bullpens might have something to do with it.
   6. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:16 AM (#2248833)
1998 was the most recent time that I found a Red Sox platoon
Am I missing something? Trot Nixon has been platooned for about five years.
   7. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:16 AM (#2248834)
I probably wouldn't offer Trot.

I'd offer Loretta, even if he accepts and they don't want him I think they'd be able to trade him for something.
   8. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:16 AM (#2248835)
I said it in another thread - I'd like to see both of these guys not in Sox uniforms for selfish Yankee-bashing reasons. Particularly Loretta.
   9. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:24 AM (#2248840)
Am I missing something? Trot Nixon has been platooned for about five years.


It's more likely I'm missing something, MCoA. A cursory glance at 1999 reveals a 3 way Buford/Lewis/Nixon platoon. And '03 looks like a Millar/Nixon platoon with Kapler thrown in later in the year. But wasn't most of Trot's recent time off due to injuries? He seemed to start against alot of lefties.
   10. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:30 AM (#2248841)
a 3 way Buford/Lewis/Nixon platoon.

They won 94 freakin' games. Even with the best Pedro year ever, on talent alone I have no idea how they did that. They let Jose Offerman have 586 ABs, John Valentin 450, and Troy O'Leary 596.

Other than Petey, just take a look at that starting pitching staff!
   11. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:32 AM (#2248842)
Also in '03 they had a defensive platoon at 2b in the latter part of the year. Walker was sat for Jackson when Lowe pitched. I'm not sure how common that type of manuever is.
   12. PJ Martinez Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:35 AM (#2248844)
If you offer, and they accept, can you then trade them? I guess Nixon's a 10-5 player now, but Loretta obviously is not. And I imagine Nixon might consider a trade to some place he could play every day.

I'd be inclined to offer arbitration to both. But maybe that's because the Mike Myers thing still bothers me, and the Graffanino thing doesn't. What happened with Graffanino again? Was it really a problem?

I think both are likely to sign elsewhere, and I don't see any disaster if they don't. That said, the decision on Nixon may depend on what the plans are with all the other OFs.
   13. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:41 AM (#2248847)
Garciaparra was really good that year (99).
   14. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:56 AM (#2248855)
I'd be inclined to offer arbitration to both too. Me likey Draft picks.
   15. Raskolnikov Posted: December 01, 2006 at 06:02 AM (#2248859)
People don't give him enough credit, but Duquette was pretty good with the Moneyball personnel moves too. Daubach, O'Leary was really good, and Offerman was actually a very good player in those days. Duquette also picked Saberhagen off the scrap heap, IIRC, and he contributed a lot.
   16. 1k5v3L Posted: December 01, 2006 at 06:48 AM (#2248878)
from rotoworld

The Red Sox are believed to be leaning toward offering free agent Trot Nixon arbitration.

That they'd even think it would seem to suggest that a Manny Ramirez deal is going to happen. With seemingly no teams aggressively pursuing him, Nixon could very well accept the $6 million-$8 million he'd likely receive in arbitration. That's pricey for Boston, but he'd sure be nice added insurance if the Red Sox are planning on an outfield of Wily Mo Pena, Coco Crisp and J.D. Drew.
Source: Boston Globe
   17. Raskolnikov Posted: December 01, 2006 at 06:59 AM (#2248885)
I think teams are starting to figure out the value of those 1st round picks. Even sandwiches are pretty valuable.

Omar, please offer arb to Oliver and Kool-Aid. Even one sandwich would cover the price of absorbing the other.
   18. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 01, 2006 at 07:10 AM (#2248891)
It's a no brainer to offer arbitration to Oliver. How much could he possibly make if he accepts? He didn't even pitch in the majors in 2005. More importantly, the team that signed him wouldn't be giving up anything as he's a TYPE B free agent. The Mets would just get a sandwich pick.

Kool-Aid is more complex. He's been pretty good the last two years so he'd get more in arbitration and a team that signed him would have to give up a draft pick because he's a type A.
   19. 1k5v3L Posted: December 01, 2006 at 07:20 AM (#2248897)
Yay, Mets fans hijacking a Red Sox thread...

From Newsday's Davidoff:

The Mets aren't expected to offer arbitration to any of their other elite free agents, including Cliff Floyd, Roberto Hernandez, Guillermo Mota and Darren Oliver. But under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, they can still negotiate with these players.
   20. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 01, 2006 at 07:27 AM (#2248905)
I can understand not offering Floyd arby because he'd make more than he'd get via free agency so he'd accept. Mota would accept as he's not going to get a lot because of the 50-game ban. Not offering Oliver makes no sense to me IMO.
   21. villageidiom Posted: December 01, 2006 at 08:28 AM (#2248926)
People don't give him enough credit, but Duquette was pretty good with the Moneyball personnel moves too. Daubach, O'Leary was really good, and Offerman was actually a very good player in those days. Duquette also picked Saberhagen off the scrap heap, IIRC, and he contributed a lot.

He also found on the scrap heap some guy named Wakefield. And he (well, his staff) converted Tom Gordon into a closer.
   22. John Walsh Posted: December 01, 2006 at 11:16 AM (#2248940)
But wasn't most of Trot's recent time off due to injuries? He seemed to start against alot of lefties.


Very few players are on a strict platoon -- they always get some PAs against the "wrong-handed" pitcher, it's a question of how many. Nixon over his career has 609 PAs against lefties and 2676 against RHP. His fraction of PAs against LHP is then 18.5%. A non-platooned left-handed batter, say David Ortiz from 2004-2006, will have about a third of their PAs against LHP pitchers. So, Nixon has definitely been platooned to some degree.

Actually, Nixon has really always been platooned: here are his yearly fraction of PAs against LHP:
yr   LHPfrac
 [1
,] 1998 0.036  
 [2
,] 1999 0.112  
 [3
,] 2000 0.125  
 [4
,] 2001 0.197  
 [5
,] 2002 0.217  
 [6
,] 2003 0.212  
 [7
,] 2004 0.096  
 [8
,] 2005 0.211  
 [9
,] 2006 0.249 

He was actually platooned less this past season, due to Pena's injury, than in any previous season.
   23. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: December 01, 2006 at 01:55 PM (#2248952)
He also found on the scrap heap some guy named Wakefield. And he (well, his staff) converted Tom Gordon into a closer.


There was also some trade with the Mariners that he pulled off. Slocumb for a couple of kids.
   24. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 01, 2006 at 02:07 PM (#2248956)
I think that searching for small moves is the worst way to rehabilitate the Duke. What he did well was the big stuff. His trade-and-sign of Pedro and his signing of Manny were huge. He also signed Damon. Much of the 2004 core was his work, and it was great work. Few contracts have paid off for the Red Sox like Pedro's and Manny's, and that's where championships are won and lost.

Now, I say that, but I think that Duquette's inability to fill in around his core is exactly what prevented him from building a championship team on his own. Yes, he had some nice moves with Troy O'Leary and Tim Wakefield, but take another look at those teams from 99-01. 2000 in particular. That should have been a championship contender - Pedro and Nomar were arguably better than in 1999, but they had a succession of Manny Alexanders at 3B, no real answers at the other corners, and Jose Offerman booting every other chance at second.

I don't know if Theo is as capable at building a core as Duquette was - he seems to be trying now, with Ortiz, Matsuzaka and Beckett - but what he added immediately was the ability to find complementary talent. Mueller, Millar, Ortiz (maybe not so complementary), Arroyo, Bellhorn - those were the guys who woulda won a World Series in 2000. I think that bringing in Theo to fill in around the core that Duquette built was just about the best way to create a winner. Whether Theo will be able to build his own is what the next few seasons will tell.
   25. villageidiom Posted: December 01, 2006 at 02:22 PM (#2248959)
Oh, I'm certainly not saying that Duquette was King of the Scrap Heap. He did well in the early years, but in his last 5 years he had a knack for finding just the wrong person. As a result, for every Troy O'Leary there was an Ed Sprague.
   26. jim in providence Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:21 PM (#2249371)
Per 790 The Score here in Providence, the Sox will offer Nixon arbitration. I didn't catch their source for this (probably the always reliable "reports out of Boston"), so a grain of salt and all that.
   27. chris p Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:09 AM (#2249720)
They won 94 freakin' games. Even with the best Pedro year ever, on talent alone I have no idea how they did that. They let Jose Offerman have 586 ABs, John Valentin 450, and Troy O'Leary 596.

offerman (.391 obp), stanley (.281/.393/.466), o'leary (28 home runs), daubach (.294/.360/.562), saberhagen (2.95 era in 119 innings), and lowe (2.63 era in over 100 relief innings) ... also garces and rod beck had eras under 2. meanwhile, nomar and pedro were at their best.
   28. Darren Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:10 AM (#2249721)
Tendering Trot seems like the right idea. He has lousy counting stats and I can't imagine him getting much. Since he's type B, they also don't have to worry about the arb offer discouraging other teams. Loretta, I'd say no because I don't think anyone will want to surrender a 1st rounder to sign him and I think he'd get a kind of hefty arb award. I also don't want him on the team.

There was also some trade with the Mariners that he pulled off.

Jamie Moyer for Darren Bragg?
   29. chris p Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:10 AM (#2249722)
Or worse, Mike Lansing.

heh. the lansing trades were duke's favorite type of move. without a farm system, he'd take on mike lansing to get rolando arrojo. rinse. repeat.
   30. Darren Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:11 AM (#2249725)
hi chris p, long time no see. What ever happened to your hilarious handles?
   31. NTNgod Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:12 AM (#2249726)
Tendering Trot seems like the right idea.

Only Foulke was offered arb.
   32. chris p Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:21 AM (#2249737)
hi chris p, long time no see. What ever happened to your hilarious handles?

hi darren. i've bene aroudn the lounge a bunch but not much of interest at the main site recently ...and when something does happen, somebody else says what i was going to say. i got rid of my last "hilarious" handle when i got suspended ... i think i'll wait until i think of something new to change my handle.
   33. chris p Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:23 AM (#2249739)
you can't offer loretta arbitration for the simple reason that he's not very good. man, it would have been nice to have the cla back.
   34. Darren Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:26 AM (#2249742)
Wait, you were suspended? WTF? Is this place turning into SOSH or something?

Speaking of SOSH, the guys over there were talking like Trot would get $7 mil in arbitration. Why do they think that?

Cla'd be nice to have for sure. Him and the other 58 relievers that have gone on to be excellent after sucking for Boston.
   35. chris p Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:30 AM (#2249748)
Wait, you were suspended? WTF? Is this place turning into SOSH or something?

i informed jeff k that he was heading into a trap.
   36. Buzzards Bay Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:32 AM (#2249751)
there was no cache to Duquette's Casbah
a Casper Sobersides, Thurston Howell III collision

the Henry Group had That 70's Show

Port? Beane,Theo/Jed and Ben/Theo
04'doesn't happen without the duke

i'd vote against Loretta and Nixon------being a card carrying KMangus apprentice
   37. Darren Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:33 AM (#2249752)
Sounds familiar somehow but I don't get it. Got a link? Whatever the case, it's good that you're back. You and phil are the life of this party--don't forget that. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise, you got it? YOU GOT THAT???!!!
   38. PJ Martinez Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:44 AM (#2249761)
So, no arb for Trot. Manny stays?
   39. Darren Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:49 AM (#2249766)
Why would that mean Manny stays? If they sign Drew, Boston has Drew, Coco, Wily Mo, Hinske, and Murphy in addition to Manny. That's plenty o' outfielders.
   40. chris p Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:49 AM (#2249767)
darren if you are relying on me to be the life of the party, the party is in trouble. i don't roll like that. i'm much too mellow.

manny stays. jeebus. i thought it could happen last year, but i'm not buying it this year.
   41. Toby Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:22 PM (#2249997)
I guess I missed the boat here in several respects.

The source I was looking at said Foulke was type C, not B.

And the Sox ended up offering arb only to Foulke, not to Trot or Loretta.

Ah well, you win some, you lose some ...
   42. tfbg9 Posted: December 02, 2006 at 04:59 PM (#2250014)
So long Dorf! All this Dec. stuff is almost as good as the real season.

"You missed the Saturday Night Massacre?"

I sure did. Link? Synopsis?
   43. tfbg9 Posted: December 02, 2006 at 05:37 PM (#2250034)
Toby, From Today's Globe.com:

"But the Sox don't expect Foulke to accept arbitration after already turning down the option on his contract. By offering arbitration, though, the team can receive a supplemental draft pick after another club signs Foulke, who, like Gonzalez, is a Type B free agent.

The Sox declined arbitration to Nixon (a Type B), catcher Doug Mirabelli, second baseman Mark Loretta, and outfielder Gabe Kapler. Of that group, only Loretta was classified as a Type A free agent,"

but maybe they just got it wrong? I dunno.
   44. Toby Posted: December 02, 2006 at 07:32 PM (#2250093)
tfgb9,

yeah, I think the chart that I was reading the other day was wrong, Foulke really is type B.
   45. Darren Posted: December 02, 2006 at 11:25 PM (#2250229)
I think it's a safe assumption that Foulke won't return. $3.75 mil is about what he should expect in arb or FA, so if he didn't take that, he's not going to take arb.

When are we going to here about ####### Brocktoon!?! I want him on the team now, dammit!
   46. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 04, 2006 at 02:15 PM (#2251186)
My ideal dream Manny trade would be Jered Weaver, Scot Shields, and Orlando Cabrera.

But that would never happen.

But then again, 2 weeks ago, I would have never imagined that GMJ would get 50 million dollars either
   47. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 04, 2006 at 02:37 PM (#2251195)
When are we going to here about ####### Brocktoon!?! I want him on the team now, dammit!
Is it possible that the Red Sox don't actually have the money for Drew, and he's merely the backup plan if they get the package they want from the Dodgers? All the early reporting suggested otherwise, but now with all the delays and the "this time it's real" Manny rumors, I wonder a bit.

Where does payroll stand now, anyway? What is hte point of having SoSH around if it can't answer this basic question for me?
   48. RobertMachemer Posted: December 04, 2006 at 05:46 PM (#2251326)
Offhand...

C:  Varitek   9.0
1B
Youkilis  minimum+
2BPedroia   minimum
SS
:
3BLowell    8.0
LF
Ramirez  18.0
CF
Crisp     4.5
RF
Pena      2-3?
DHOrtiz    12.5

C
:  Kotteras  minimum
UT
Cora      1.5
UTHinske    2.5?
UT:
UT?

SPSchilling 13.0
SP
:
SPPapelbon  minimum+
SPBeckett    8.0
SP
Wakefield  4.0

RP
Timlin     2.8
RP
Delcarmen  minimum
RP
Tavarez    3.1
RP
Okajima    1.25?
RP:
RP:
RP?
DLClement    9.5 


I think that's everyone so far. That puts the Sox (roughly) at $103 million or so (give or take a couple hundred million). There is still (theoretically, given past years' payrolls) plenty of money left, but there are still (practically) plenty of positions left to fill. Drew and Matzusaka alone might raise the payroll over $130 million, and then there are still relief slots and possibly a shortstop position to fill. The bullpen looks very weak as of right this second, so the team may be tempted to pay premium prices to fill it out with veterans (which will be expensive, of course).
   49. Toby Posted: December 05, 2006 at 03:05 AM (#2251769)
Personally, I have begun to suspect that the Drew leaks about being close to a deal at 4 yrs / 14 per year are not true. It's just a conventional wisdom that the various writers are passing around. I think there actually isn't a market for Drew as high as that. But we'll see. If the Sox end up signing him, my money's on the under.
   50. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 05, 2006 at 03:33 AM (#2251801)
Graffanino was re-signed right?

He woudl have been nice to have back.
   51. Darren Posted: December 05, 2006 at 04:08 AM (#2251846)
Graff was offered arb and said that he'd likely take it because arb would likely scare off other interested teams. It's funny how no price is too high these days, but teams are being mroe careful than ever about draft pick compensation.

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