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1. Darren--In the 7th/8th, Girardi and Francona had very different takes on the closeness of the game. Francona, in a 2-0 game, replaced RamRam with Enrique Gonzalez, essentially giving up on winning the game. Yet, with the score extended to to 3-0, and after pretty long layoff, Girardi sent Sabathia back out to get 2 outs in the 8th, even after he had thrown more than 110 pitches.
--The ejection of RamRam, without any warning, was odd to say the least. When contrasted with the repeated throwing at Pedroia two nights before, it's even weirder. Hitting a guy in the elbow in a 2-run game doesn't seem like grounds for ejection. I wonder if Bob Watson will decide to suspend Ramirez for this.
Didn't see the last half of the game; location aside did it seem like Ramirez was throwing at him?
The potential for an august sweep at the hands of the Yankees that pushes the team from just-outta-first to a solid deficit, combined with the injuries to Dice-K, Wake and now apparently Bay, are enough to give me some horrible flashbacks to the summer of 2006.
v. RHP:
Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
VMart C
Youk 3B
Drew RF
Bay LF
Kotchman 1B
Lowell DH
SS
v. LHP:
Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
VMart 1B
Youk 3B
Drew RF
Bay LF
Lowell DH
Tek C
SS
(or in both lineups, Reddick/whoever slotted 8th if no Bay)
Slot Ortiz in against weak righties unless it's clear Kotchman can't sustain .800+ OPS.
It didn't seem to me that he was throwing at him. He had a runner on already and threw a pitch that ran way too far inside and hit him in the elbow. Of course, that's probably how I'd throw it if I was throwing at someone, but the context made it seem unlikely. And to re-second-guess that idea, Tito immediately put in our AAA scrub, so I guess they viewed the game as over, which would make it a good time to hit someone.
One thing about Papi--as long as he's not putting up a 1.000 OPS, he has GOT TO make teams pay for using the shift. They play him so far up the middle that any weak grounder to the left side would be a guaranteed hit. That cannot be tough to do.
I'm still curious about Wakefield's status - they showed him in the dugout and the announcers were extremely silent. Noticeably so. I suspect that if they had something on him, they'd have used it.
But we're likely screwed anyway. And just 15-18 since the Brutal Baltimore Bullpen Blowup.
When's football start?
/looks down, sees pants are now wet
That's an interesting point. From what I've seen, he seems focused on reestablishing himself as Big Papi, hitting through the shift rather than exploiting it. It's a bit like watching an older pitcher trying to do what he used to without the tools, rather than adjusting his style to what he's got left. Of course it may well be tough mentally-- in Papi's mind nothing's changed, he's just in a slump. Between that and his decent power numbers (until August), I can see why he'd resist the cheap hit and keep trying to pull himself out of the slump. It's hard for a slugger to accept that almost certainly getting to first might be more helpful than maybe (but probably not) knocking one out, especially when he has had some power left. All the more reason to give Kotch some AB's, IMO.
Re Boston's lineup: there is no good lineup without Manny Ramirez. What a huge difference his absence makes. Obviously, there's no going back, and of course teams look bad when they're losing, but Ortiz is Dead Man Walking. Youkilis is the only guy who bugs me in the lineup, and when that's the case, NY will do what they did this weekend, give him almost nothing to hit.
Buchholz looked ok. Good stuff, not much idea how to use it. What's the problem, there?
Easy now. Losing Manny is huge, obviously, but was (at least initially) offset by Bay's production. Keeping Papi has been much more damaging than losing Manny, since they've had to keep putting him out there. It'll be a while before we see something approaching '03/'04's offense (if ever), but if you convert the DH (and lately LF) black holes into an .800+ OPS, it's a very good lineup.
Nothing, if he keeps pitching like that. It's stuff like his last start (vs. Bal) that worry people:
4.0IP, 9H, 7ER, 4BB, 3K, 2HR
Edit: some seem concerned that he's lost movement on his fastball, and movement/location on his curve. Plus makeup. But starts like today's should allay those concerns.
That's not to ignore some issues with the offense but put a healthy Jason Bay in the middle of the lineup and Friday and potentially Saturday look very different. How many times has Ortiz hit in the #5 slot with men on this weekend and failed? Bay isn't Manny, who is, but he's a damn sight better than the 2009 Papi.
Wasn't one of the main criticisms about Manny is that he was only main healthy veteran for a while, while guys like Ortiz, J.D. Drew, etc were out with injuries, forcing Manny to play every day? If that's a case, of course the Red Sox would have a better run scored average with a healthy Red Sox team with Bay over a non healthy Red Sox team with Manny.
How is this team meant to be a threat with the holy wheelchair trinity of Ortiz, Lowell and Varitek?
Painful to watch would be an understatement.
I was unable to watch the game so it's entirely possible I missed a lot by not watching it, but why would today's start alleviate concerns about Buchholz? Because he only gave up 2 runs? He walked 5 and struck out 3. That's a bad K rate and a terrible walk rate. I understand that he held a good Yankee lineup to only 2 runs today, but I don't think I would view his outing today as a positive just by looking at the line. Do the numbers miss something?
There really wasn't any criticism of Manny's production. There never was, regardless what else might have been going on with him. The point is, the Sox offense can exist fine without him, but not at the 2009 production levels of Drew and Ortiz coupled with Bay's absence and Lowell's incapacitation.
And the thought that the Red Sox will have the lead-footed trifecta of Ortiz, Lowell, and Varitek through next year is scary. It'll take a double to score any of these guys from third base!
Yes. Buchholz held it down for a complete outing, both in the result (runs) and his 'look'. Buchholz has had great numbers in the minors but in MLB has underperformed expectations, while appearing (yeah, yeah) scared/overmatched: taking an excessive amount of time between pitches, getting totally preoccupied by ROB, and some of the most expressionate facial reactions to balls in play since DLowe. It's Boston and people see that stuff, so the general consensus is "kid has stuff, does he have stones?". That his MLB experience is apparently the first 'struggle' in his baseball career lends some extra weight to the psychological angle. It's also possible the Sox's tinkering with his FB and CB may have something to do with things. Whether he's a headcase or not, a quality start in Yankee stadium can only be a good thing for a kids mindset.
Besides, the team just released a guy with a 33-9 K/BB ratio. Eff stats; the Sox need quality starts, not peripherals...
Edit: also, what Dan said.
Thanks for the great memory, Dan. What a terrible game that was. Francona ruined his whole career right there! :)
So Francona thought the game was still close and he went to Gonzalez? And Girardi's sure he was throwing at him?
The pitch to Tex was barely inside, plus it should have not factored in the decision to toss Ramirez. If the ump thought that was intentional, he should have issued a warning at that point.
If the kid needs an actual defense behind him, I'm not sure how having Lowell at 3B and then playing Youks in LF was supposed to help anything. Trading Papi's bat for Reddick's doesn't seem to be much of a trade off to me, especially with the defensive improvement the switch brings.
It was definitely a signal, I'm only guessing that it was to hit him, but it was pretty obvious when I rewound and played it again. I understand the young pitcher taking it upon himself to do something dumb at the wrong time, but I find it hard to believe that Martinez thought that was the thing to do in that situation. Very odd.
#### me
Not sure, but I know an MLB shortstop doesn't catch the balls hit by Teixeira and Damon.
The Sox effing should. Yeah I'm pissed Tito went with Bard but the bullpen remains a strength. The fact that a AAAA tweaker has been our starting SS for most of the year is fricking ridiculous.
edit: LOUD NOISES.
So sick of this team
Sox are now 1-14 against .500 or better teams since July 1.
Schedule doesn't get any easier going forward. DET in for 4, @ TEX for 3, @ TOR, NYY, CWS, TOR again, @ TB, @ CWS. That's a very tough stretch of games. They don't get a cupcake until BAL in town September 8.
Tied for the WC for the moment. But it's tough to see them holding on to the position unless their play dramatically and immediately improves from what they've been doing over the past 6 or 7 weeks. Only positive taken out of this NYY series was that they got 3 excellent starts from Beckett, Buchholz, and Lester. Unfortunately the offense and Dan Bard ensured those good starts didn't result in wins.
Very difficult to watch.
come on. you don't think they'll have some sort of regression back to the mean? christ, they were 8-0 against the yanks this year. the series in isolation looks bad, but they have beat the #### out of the yanks until this series.
are you ready to send bard back to AAA? your comment is absurd.
A little perspective: The Red Sox have improved their playoff chances from where they were on opening day
Ellsbury - .308/.354/.429
Pedroia - .289/.356/.444
Youkilis - .341/.426/.561
Ortiz - .208/.271/.377
Drew - .242/.333/.333
Varitek - .153/.254/.220
Bay - .204/.377/.296
Lowell - .352/.422/.500
Lowrie - .184/.233/.316
Martinez - .324/.390/.541 (Sox only)
Green - .118/.184/.206
Baldelli - .192/.192/.346
Kotchman - .111/.200/.444 (Sox only)
I see one player on that list likely to regress from what he's been doing (Lowell) while there are two almost certain to improve (Drew/Bay) and two more (Varitek and Green) likely to improve just based on the fact that it's almost impossible to be THAT bad.
This isn't going to be 950 run monster offense from 2003/2004 obviously but I'll be stunned if this team doesn't start producing more fairly soon.
What if this *is* the regression to the mean?
I wouldn't say "fire sale," but I think I'm against any more mortgaging of the future right now. I wish we still had Justin Masterson.
I'm waiting until after the Texas series to consider opening the little plastic cover on the panic button. But besides still leading the WC, there's the issue of what's to sell? Bard has made a strong recent case that Paplebon isn't expendable just yet. Penny (and Saito?) might still bring something back, I guess. Otherwise it's a bunch of good younger/cheaper guys we'll need next year, and decrepit corpses that nobody else wants anyway.
Fair enough. A see-saw battle, giving up two in the 8th, seems par for the course in a Sox-Yankees game; whereas giving up four, well @*(@##. Win probability %'s aside, the extra runs felt way more crushing since there's no way the team as it's playing now comes back from that.
wow. ok.... this place gets weirder by the week.
and also, doesn't fire sale mean selling veterans, and not, you know, the farm or rookies?
And the scoreless streak would still be intact!
Yeah. A team that's selling is trying to get payroll flexibility, give younger prospects a chance to play, or both. A fire sale implies that a team is going to unload it's best and/or most costly players at deep discounts. I'm certainly not in favor of that, and it's not clear to me what most such players would even fetch at this point.
i was being sarcastic. i know what a fire sale is. but you put "fire sale" next to "mortgaging the future." i don't see how shedding veterans/contracts is mortgaging the future.
There will probably be a time of reckoning this offseason where some things will need to be sorted out. I don't see any major contracts coming off the books either apart from the option on Varitek.
EDIT: Jason Bay is up. I am guessing someone else will overpay for him.
Of course not. But Bard blew two leads this week against key division rivals at a time when the Sox could've badly used the wins. It doesn't make him a bad pitcher, but it does make his struggles extremely ill-timed. This past week absolutely sucked.
As far as fire sale, it was in reference to dealing vets unlikely to be with the team next year if the Sox should continue falling in the playoff race. Such a scenario is not here just yet, but the Sox have a very difficult upcoming schedule and if they don't start winning some games they may start thinking about trading away some vets (Penny and Saito would be the likeliest candidates to go). If the Sox fall out of the race they would need to keep their young players and perhaps try to acquire more.
Problem is that I see little trade value there from the perspective of other teams. Plus this team already has a bit of a hole in the rotation even with Penny, if you're going to see (without much downside) if you can somehow hold onto a wildcard spot. (I'm not optimistic right now, but things could break their way.) There will be opportunities to start Bowden or whomever down the stretch should things turn ugly in the next couple of weeks.
It is kind of weird how every Red Sox fan has no confidence in Delcarmen. He keeps on putting up good ERAs and Fangraphs doesn't think he's THAT unclutch. When he's on the mound I sure feel like everyone else does though.
I do think they have every intention of bringing up Bowden at some point (and perhaps before 9/1), but for the moment they didn't want to lose the services of either Cabrera or Tazawa for the next 15 days by sending one of them down now.
Of course, this could also mean they're not counting on Wakefield to join the rotation anytime soon (Matsusaka already was pretty much a given to stay on the DL until 9/1), despite him throwing soon, etc. It could also mean they simply wanted Cabrera to remain up to see what he had, and to get a look at a Tazawa start or 2 to see if he had a Bob Walk v.September 1980 in him, and would thus ride the hot hand into September and beyond.
What we really need is far less Varitek and Ortiz in the lineup. Green/Lowrie is a complete loss of a lineup spot from here on in, I'm assuming, but the other 2 giant sucking holes in the lineup we do have options for. Granted, this all assumes Casey Kotchman > Ortiz > Varitek, but at this point I'm willing to assume this and roll with it. I'd really like to see more Mike Lowell at DH, but I'm guessing this won't happen unless we happen to run into a stretch of LHP.
All relievers suffer from small sample-size problems. Unless you can explain to me why his strikeout rate is so far down when his plate discipline numbers are right in line with his career rates, I'll continue to chalk it up some back luck and a lot of real bad pitch selection by Tek.
The default position of all the game-calling mavens online. I find it fascinating how knowledgable we are about pitch selection.
I thoguh he was just not worth his rotation spot, but if that was the case wouldn't they rather try him again than go with a rookie?
.554 is his OPS, not his SLG...
Kotsay went for Brian Anderson. I think Dan meant Kotchman.
Edit: or Kotteras? We gotta lotta Kots.
Man, what the hell was I looking at? That sucks.
.256 AVG, .341 OBP, .563 SLG
Ortiz since the ASB:
.239 AVG, .322 OBP, .522 SLG
And, apparently, last night Ortiz moved into a tie for 7th-most all-time career walk-off home runs.
Jimmie Foxx 12
Mickey Mantle 12
Stan Musial 12
Frank Robinson 12
Babe Ruth 12
Tony Perez 11
Dick Allen 10
Harold Baines 10
Reggie Jackson 10
Mike Schmidt 10
David Ortiz 10
player AVG OBP SLGLowell .356 .412 .604
Youkilis .331 .417 .554
Martinez .326 .400 .543
Bay .250 .382 .509
Pedroia .294 .364 .490
Ortiz .239 .322 .522
Drew .274 .374 .462
Gonzalez .275 .275 .475
Ellsbury .291 .327 .418
Varitek .181 .284 .289
The bullpen is still excellent, Wakefield is back, and that's a very good offense. Honestly, I'll be shocked if Texas makes the playoffs ahead of the Red Sox. I'm actually still more worried about Tampa of anyone.
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