So you say you want to piss your pants, well, you know (pt 2)
I’ve recently been posting some aggressively optimistic things about the Red Sox, even as they stumble awkwardly down the stretch like some sort of drunken Kevin Youkilis. I’d like to explain myself in a bit more detail, after yet another ugly loss.
There have been numbers tossed around in the other threads which were clearly based on a poorly calibrated PNOOMA system. 75% chance the Sox make the playoffs. No, it’s 85%. All while the BPro numbers still hold around 99%. One of the things I’ve always liked about baseball is the way it’s just not that hard to put numbers on events. So when I see people putting numbers on baseball without doing the work of opening up a spreadsheet or at least a calculator, my hackles rise. And when I do the work myself and I get very different results, I don’t tend to be very generous in my assessment.
So what I decided to do is run the numbers for a reasonable worst-case scenario. Let’s say that instead of being one of the best teams in baseball, the Red Sox now have such a bad pitching staff that they’re a .500 team. The Sox in their last fifteen games have scored only a few more runs than they’ve allowed, so you can sorta kinda make a case for the Sox being a .500 team if you’re feeling like urinating in your trousers. I simulated the rest of the season using a whole bunch of log5s, accounting for the many Sox-Rays head to heads and accounting roughly for strength of schedule and home/road split.
If the Sox are merely a .500 team, there is about a 90% chance that the Red Sox will make the playoffs. I think that’s a bad estimate of this team’s quality, but I’m trying to be as generous as I can to Jose and Dale here. You can stretch the Red Sox to a 9-to-1 shot to miss the playoffs, but stretching any further is heading well past Wet Pants Junction on your way to Clowntown. I’m not going down that road with you, not even if you come up with funnier town names.
So, I mean, I’m worried. I worry about things that aren’t likely to happen all the time. I want the Red Sox to make the playoffs because this is an excellent team, a team I’ve enjoyed rooting for quite a lot, and it sucks they’ve lost so many good players to injury, again. I think that, healthy, this is the best team in baseball. There’s certainly a real chance they’ll miss the playoffs, but it’s not a large chance, it’s a very small chance. And I won’t have bad numbers make things seem worse than they are.
Matt Clement of Alexandria
Posted: September 10, 2011 at 02:17 AM |
167 comment(s)
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I really hope I look incredibly stupid in two weeks by I'm not feeling it.
Again, worry all you like, but don't get the numbers wrong.
EDIT: The one thing you could argue, against the numbers, is that these games aren't independent events, that things could "snowball". My experience watching baseball is that things almost never really snowball in that way. Think of all the times you've been convinced the club will never win again, or never lose again, and certainly not with tonight's pitcher on the mound, then they go out and do just that.
If it makes you feel any better, I doubt it will even take two weeks to make you feel stupid.
I'm not disputing that your numbers are accurately calculated and I realize all the reasons my feeling here is stupid but...
I do the 50-50 thing all the time when I'm on the other side of the argument. Last year because the Rays and Yanks stumbled at the end, a lot of die-hard fans were pulling out "2004" and saying "If we sweep here, and if this happens, and if goats are sacrificed.." And I just calmly said how to win all these games it's like a 2% chance, etc..etc.. So I know where your coming from.
Sox will lose tomorrow because FORGODSAKEITSWEILANDVSHELLICKSON!!, and Sunday because Lester pitchs very well in these situations but never quite good enough. I predict an extra inning 4-3 loss.
There's also one problem with your logic. You say it's stretching it to call the Sox a .500 team. I said with 22 games to go, they would go 10-12. That's less than .500 and that's before the injury to Beckett, the complications to Youkilis and Bedard and is Lackey allright after tonight?
That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Sox will lose the next two games, then go 9-7. But that seems awful generous right now.
What's the diagnosis/prognosis on Beckett? I missed it, if there was news.
They will be big underdogs tomorrow. Vegas will have them about 35% to win Saturday's game. And then they're one bad Lester start from being 3 games up in the LC with 16 left, 4 head to head with the team bearing down on them. Not to mention the Angels.
If thet get swept, the straight odds outlook will still say they are 80% to take the WC. But then you're looking at a 7-9, 10-6 type situation, and the team will be in serious trouble of blowing this thing. They have one non-horrible SP left. Its not good, boys.
Look, my pants aren't wet just yet, but the forecast is calling for possible drizzle on Monday should we lose the next two games.
Seriously, it's a sure thing.
...4 games ago they scored 14 runs. 3 games ago they scored 10 runs. The bats are "suddenly silent" and they are "pressing" just because they scored 4 two games ago and 2 last game?
I was about to answer you. The short answer was, "No."
The Rays have a pretty good team, of course, but as Wisinski pointed out in the other thread, they have some holes, and I don't see them as a 100-win team that has been held up by injuries or bad luck and is just hitting its stride.
GTFOOH...I don't buy it.
Don't kid yourselves. They could easily blow this thing. They have certainly set themselves up nicely for a Mets-type collapse. You can't win games when you're always down 6-0 after 3 innings.
So yeah, I'm worried.
Are you giving 25:1 on B-Ref sponsorship bets? I'll take the Rays/Angels side of that action.
4% feels about right. I think 2-4% is a little bit on the low end, but 3-5% or 4-5% is probably about right.No one's arguing that they can't miss the playoffs. The question is how likely it is, and how worried people feel about it. I don't really know who you think you're arguing against. I'm guessing by your tone that you think 4% is too low, or maybe that 10% is too low?
Or are you arguing that people should feel more worried regardless of the numbers? I can't tell.
Look at that dark spot on his pants--it's getting bigger!
I'd say that's been a fairly common argument recently. That's really the only reason to call someone crazy/stupid/pants-wetting for thinking they could miss the playoffs.
They've hit well enough to win 33% of the time in their Sep. games.
Nice nitpick Biffer.
10% seems too low in light of just looking at the schedule and seeing one unfavorable starting pitching matchup after another.
Allright, you all want drama? I am officially wishing for an Angels-Rays-Red Sox tie at the end of the season.
I guess I'm making the wrong point in the wrong place. I thought the pants talk was a reference to the argument that people who are worried are insane. If your analysis shows anything, to me, it shows that being worried is reasonable because a 10% chance of a historic collapse is pretty bad news.
It's funny that you misremember the argument this way.
I was talking about more than just this title, though, when I asked what was up with the titles to these threads. Like the title: "So, Jacoby Ellsbury."
The One About The Pants Pissing
"So, Jacoby Ellsbury" is what happens when I decide to post something without coming up with workable post title. I am not a particularly hard-working blogger.
I totally missed that, which makes me feel stupid :-)
I was just noting that the titles were unique; obviously, it's the blog post and discussion that are relevant.
Heh.
And, actually, though, I meant it. It was a good game. Not trolling at all. If I wanted to taunt Boston fans, I would have tried to say something funny. Boston is still in great shape, but I can see why some of their fans are getting nervous, like I said in the other thread.
Jeff Mathis just hit a HR--Angels up 5-0. That race will presumably be 1.5 now.
Nice join date BTW, must've been a fun night for you.
I see you edited out the insult. You can put it back if you want, you fat f*ck. Troll.
Thank God for 2004...that's what I say.
Also, 2007. Anguished in adolesence, spoiled in my 30s.
I assume Maddon will stay with Farnsworth, but I am sure he is thinking about the recent outings and Farns' history.
Yeah, thought better of it. Not sure what set you off like this, but this seems personal. Don't have a personal issue with you, although I have given you a little shitt at times, to be sure, but I do that with a few people. Time to chill it out. Peace, etc.
"Great shape" is a stretch. They have exactly one functional starting pitcher, and a major cog from their lineup gone missing again. The only solace is that they've got 7 left vs. the Orioles and if they win five of those games it's pretty tough for Tampa/Anaheim to catch them no matter what they do.
You may be right. But I think TB will lose a few and the Boston lineup will put enough runs on the board to get Boston home. If TB catches them, well, I will admit I was wrong.
Heh. This is a new meme. I edited out the insult because I just lit up the objective pipe.
68-made me laugh. But a "baseball historian" ought to be aware of Ted Williams flying combat missions.
Back to the matter at hand. Are we choking? If TB wins the next one, you bet your ass we are.
*scratches head*
Did Erik Bedard go off and join a monastery or something? Why does he not qualify as a "functional starting pitcher"?
And Beckett's injury doesn't appear serious.
Because he's hurt and is going to miss at least one more start.
Though he'd doubtless qualify, I've yet to be convinced Bedard's actually healthy.
98.5%!
"Amusing" is what Ray says when he misses stuff and is buffaloed by his biases. So I will explain:
I admitted I have given the guy some crap, just like I have given you some crap. And you have given me some crap, as you did in that last post. This seems to be beyond that, however.
And, if you said that because you think "heck of a game" was trolling, well, you're wrong.
I guess if Boston fans piss their pants, Yankee fans have to actually shitt their pants to top them, right?
"LYING ON THE INTERNET".
Whadda fat, beady-eyed doosh.
I don't really care about this silly issue, but you popped into a Red Sox thread 2 minutes after they lost to comment "heck of a game." Then you acted shocked that someone thought you were trolling. Then you uttered an insult, before thinking better about it and deleting it.
Troll all you want - I couldn't care less - but pretending you're shocked that someone took it as a troll is pretty weak.
The Mets fan says you have nothing to worry about. No one could lose a lead that big.
And, I watched. It was a heck of a game.
You people need help, generally, and tfbg9 needs medication, specifically.
Heard this very thing from my brother tonight. It scared me.
Was Game 7 of the 75 Series a heck of a game?
Were Games 6 and 7 of the 91 Series both great games? (Asked as a die-hard Braves fan).
If you answer no to either of those based on who you root for, you have no reason to be discussing baseball. Go buy a pom-pom and a foam finger. The game tonight was a great game. Crushing, I'm sure, for the Sox and their fans but still a great game. If you think "Heck of a game" is a troll, then you should probably leave the internet as soon as possible because you aren't going to make it.
These forums are not reserved for fans of certain teams. And, certainly, no one who is a huge fan of El Fato DH should be using weight as an insult toward anyone.
In other words, grow the #### up.
Don't think it makes the post "trolling" exactly though. Just being a bit of a dick.
Hey, it was undeniably a great game and the personal stuff is completely uncalled for. But really, too expect reasoned discussion seconds after a crushing loss is optimistic to say the least.
I dont think I made any personal attacks last night but if I did (in any thread) I apologize.
Edited for clarity
If your fan's spirit is too fragile to take that go to ESPN Boston or New York or to your local bar.
That others piled on is really bizarre and, I think, backs up RR's statement that it seems personal. Which is also fine. If you don't like RR, call him an a$$hole. I have no problem with that (well, I don't agree with it, but you can think whoever is an a$$hole). But if commenting, objectively, on a baseball game is troll-like behavior, this entire site is trolling.
Well, technically...
We're fans. Part of being fans is the complete loss of self, of saying and doing things in the "heat of the moment" that you wouldn't otherwise do. A further example of this - I am not a yeller. I don't raise my voice at work or at home, because the logical side of me knows that it's not productive and can lead to hurt feelings down the road. But I yell at my TV when the Yankees are playing.
So, I need a password, separate from that to logon to BBTF to get in here?
But I yell at my TV when the Yankees are playing.
Me, too, Erik. Me, too.
I agreed with that statement before and I'll agree with it now. I'm just saying I wouldn't have gone to a Yankee blog 3 minutes after the 2004 ALCS and said "well, this was a thrilling series" and expected reasonable responses.
I think it should be noted that only Teddy and Ray got on RR with Teddy in particular crossing the line. I don't think anyone else said anything even remotely critical of him.
The Game Chatters frankly suck. I rarely go in there because it is generally nothing but ########, whining and moaning. I was there last night because I was ########, whining and moaning but they are like that from game one of the season. They aren't the least bit fun but I wasn't looking for fun last night during the chatter, I was just pissed. I wish they were as you described but they are not.
In 1999, my neighbors told me they nearly called the cops, concerned there was a domestic issue.
I want an anonymous group of people who are smart yet emotional, who are subject to the same great swings of feeling that I am: from elation to horror in minutes. That's what the sports experience is for me. I can't be at many Yankee games and I don't live around NYC, but in 2003/2004 I found the Chatters to be the place to go in order to find informed passion.
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