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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
At a moment like this one, I'm liable to post all sorts of crazy stuff in a Chatter thread in a mad gestalt of feelings about my team's plunging chances. I would not post the same thing in another thread; I try (and fail, I'm sure) to be less controlled by emotion and swayed by good argument in the site as a whole. I am far more likely to join in the "mob mentality" in a Chatter than elsewhere.
I apologize if it appeared I was saying anyone other than those two were out of line. They were the only folks I was meaning to argue with.
I get emotional response to tough losses. But Teddy Ballgame seems to have gone around the bend when his team is still in a commanding position. Weird.
How was I out of line? I commented that it was not unreasonable to think he was trolling. I didn't call him names, or cross any line. My tone was quite measured. And I didn't even comment in detail until he pretended it was unfathomable to think he was trolling.
As to the loss, I don't particularly care about it. I don't treat these games as if they're important to my life. They're entertainment, and, as I commented in the game chatter, I don't even mind if Tampa closes the gap further because I would then enjoy the pennant race feel to the games and start watching more. A pennant race for three weeks would be more exciting than playoff games, frankly.
So I don't care whether RR was trolling.
I also would in a heartbeat...were it not Lackey, Miller, Wakefield, and Weiland they were marching out. That's considerably worse than Jason Johnson, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, and David Wells.
The ESPN numbers have the Rays at 6.7% to make the playoffs, I believe it was 4.3% before yesterday's game. To me that passes the smell test more than the 1.x% BPro has them at. They do actually control their own destiny, they can get ahead of the Red Sox from head-to-head matchups alone.
The bigger complaint I have about BPro's odds system is that a couple days ago the Yankees were at 100% to make the playoffs. Now they're at 99.8%. How does that make any ####### sense whatsoever? If they actually had a 100% chance of making the playoffs then there shouldn't be anything that could change that because if anything could make a difference then they wouldn't be at 100% in the first place.
He was trolling, and trying to make it look like he wasn't. He deserves what I gave him. He'll survive.
What team does rr root for, when not trolling?
Probably 10,000 simulations. It takes a freaking long time to run even 100,000 simulations, unless you're just doing some fake binomial tree and ignoring SP, etc.
I'd put that more as giving you ####. Since when can't we give fans of other teams ####? That's a huge part of baseball fandom.
"— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox"
It's always better if we get fans of other teams here who want to chime in on Sox-related issues, but is a blog specifically for Red Sox fans.
Without endorsing tbfg's response, I will ask what the point of RR's post was. I mean, it might make sense as a conclusion to the game chatter, but does it contribute to the discussion going on in this thread? Does it offer some kind of insight? I'm trying to imagine what result, other than the one he got, RR was hoping to get from posting it.
It seems like a post designed to tweak angry Sox fans minutes after a walk-off loss while being able to pretend that it was just an innocent observation.
I don't think that's the usual decorum on Primer, though maybe there's an exception in the game threads sometimes. Still, though, if it's okay to give someone ####, what's wrong with Teddy responding in kind?
That's a hell of a standard. I think about my last ten posts, and I don't know if any of them "contribute to the discussion" or any of that other highfalutin' stuff. Do you maintain that each and every time you hit the "Submit Your Comment" button, your words inspire deep thought?
Nothing, except he should mock Robinred based on how pathetic the Reds are, e.g. 15 games out of first, haven't won a World Series in 20 years, etc.
Personal attacks should be out of bounds.
Is he fat? If he is, I suppose I feel kinda bad about that.
"Contribute to the discussion" is too high of a standard? Okkkaaayyyy.
Moving back to the discussion of the Red Sox implosion, did anyone notice anything about the usage of Papelbon? A couple days ago, they could have brought him down to replace a melting down Bard with 2 outs in the 8th. They didn't, of course, and lost the game. The following day Pete Abraham wrote that they had only used Pap for more than 1 inning twice that season and that using Pap for more than 1 inning was not part of the game plan.
And yet today, the Sox were perfectly okay with using Pap for 2 full innings. So does Abraham go back and reassess his previous claim? No, he just moves the goalposts: "Even though Jonathan Papelbon had thrown only 16 pitches, Terry Francona said that sending out back out for a third inning "wouldn't have been the best idea." Papelbon has not gone three inning since 2005. You don't endanger the heath of your closer to keep your lead in the wild card from falling to 4.5 games."
So he was fine using him for 2 full innings, so that's not the problem. So what is?
Francona gets it half right here. You _don't_ endanger the health of your closer to keep your lead from falling to 4.5 games. But there is absolutely no evidence that a third inning when he's only thrown 16 pitches "endagers his health." And he was pitching on 4 days rest, and had pitched once since August 31st.
I will note that Bard is a perfectly good pitcher, but he's not as good as Papelbon, and Papelbon had only thrown 16 pitches, and you don't know how many innings the game is going to go.
Because it's not really 100%. It's 99.95-99.99%. It's never actually 100% until a spot is clinched.
It would look stupid to have everything displayed to three or four significant digits, so they round off.
That's the Stone Temple Pilots/Velvet Revolver guy.
KISS AND MAKE UP!! NOW!
Ray "never heard a word of his broadcast" DiPerna lecturing me about tone and context issues, is, as he likes to say, amusing, particularly since Ray, to my knowledge, has never admitted that there was any reason for people to take his making that remark on an Ernie Harwell eulogy thread in the wrong way. As I said at the top, if I actually wanted to show up here and troll the Boston guys, I would have said something sophomoric and obvious. I am not that clever. And I edited out the insult because, as I said, I thought better of it. And while Ray seems pretty concerned about my edited insult, he seems unconcerned about the unedited things said to me.
I appreciate Jose's comments, (and those of other guys) and I will keep it in mind. My comment would have been better in Game Chatter. I would like to add, though, particularly since Jose IIRC brought up the 2004 ALCS, that last night's game, while a tough loss for Boston in a very bad patch, was neither a postseason game nor an elimination game. It wasn't a game that tied the race or put them behind. No key Boston players were injured during the game or anything of that nature. Boston is no longer dragging the 86-year anchor. It was merely a very exciting game that reduced the Boston lead over TB to 4.5 games. Even I had been doing some obvious trolling, don't see it as blow-up worthy--unless the issue is personal.
Back to the BOS/TB race: Now that he has had a couple of bad outings and this thing has tightened up, I think the "Farnsworth Factor" will be part of the picture. The two guys Maddon brought in after Farnsworth both got the job done. Certainly Farnsworth will be out there again at the next opportunity to close, but I think his leash will be short.
Sure. Come here.
Missed this. I was not hoping for any result. I was not attempting to provide any insight. It was intended as an entirely innocuous observation, and again, as you and I have some history, you would tend to look at it in a certain light.
"Still, though, if it's okay to give someone ####, what's wrong with Teddy responding in kind?"
Hmmm. You think that what he said was "responding in kind" to "heck of a game?"
Wait, that's not true. I kissed Dial when I saw him in Westchester Co. a few weeks ago. I guess I won't kiss you because I'm not mad at you?
On the other hand, we should all probably not be dicks to each other outside the game chatters.
And we should all recognize that Ray is hardly a troll; he's simply a lone dispassionate, objective observer in a world full of sloppy-thinking Ichiro! fanboys......
Finally, rr, you are either a fat son of a ##### or a skinny-ass ############. take your pick.
Only if you're the sort that lives under a bridge and eats children.
Kiper is a momsbasement guy just like the rest of us. He happened to get lucky and assimilated into the mainstream. Not sure what that says about baseball versus football, but there you are.
I don't think we're that different on this issue. I think if you go back and read ST (which you clearly do as you are about as regular a non-Red Sox fan poster there as anyone) I think you'll find the blow ups and over the top responses are the exception, not the rule. I think if you read through the posts from last night here (Teddy and Ray excepted) you'll find they were both clearly frustrated and reasonably worded on the whole. If you read the game chatter, well, I know my posts there were borderline art in their level of insanity.
Edit - not sure where it's coming fro but you are certainly not a bad fan. Again, if I suggested that I assure you that was inadvertent and not my belief.
Rays are in Baltimore for 3, we get the Blue Jays for 2. At this point, I'll just assume the Rays take 2 of 3 and we get 1 of 2, which would leave them 3 back going into the 4-game series. At that point, a split would leave them still 3 back, only now there's be just 10 to play and 7 of those 10 for the Rays are against the Yankees. Now, by that time the Yankees may well have wrapped up the division, but (a) they might not have, and (b) the Yankees might still be fighting to clinch home field. On top of this, the first 4 games against the Yankees are at YS and include a day/night DH in the middle day of the 3-day series and it's likely the Yankees won't have clinched anything by that point.
Of course, right after the Rays series we have a day/night DH and 4 games in 3 days against the Orioles--but at least it's at home.
...and of course our pitching for the entire Rays series is basically TBD at this point, and we're looking at Weiland or Dubront or someone like that to start one of the Orioles DH games... [sigh]
My question: Aceves has to get the Thursday start, right? No way Weiland gets it if they need an extra arm for the Orioles DH on 9/19. What about this for the pitching:
Thurs: Aceves
Fri: Lester
Sat: Beckett
Sun: Wakefield
Then for the DH on Monday you throw Lackey/Weiland and for the Tuesday game (9/20) you go to Aceves for the start. At this point Miller/Bowden's the mop-up man you bring in when Lackey gets shelled. Albers is the guy you bring in if you want to give up a big hit with the bases loaded.
I confess picking between Lackey/Miller is tough right now (would I like to be poisoned or electrocuted?), but I think Lackey gives you more chance of getting through 5 innings down just 5-0, whereas Miller could put you in a 7-0 hole after 2 IP.
(I don't hate Sox fans, but I don't particularly care about you guys much, either (as a group). You were cute until 2004 and I was happy for you for a few months. Since then you've been just another annoying powerhouse. I'll not weep for any of you if, as you think likely, your team fails at the end.)
I could be wrong, Ray, but in the internet sites I habit, "troll" is a more vile insult than "a$$hole" or "pedophile" or "Republican".
If Robin had said today's game was a "heck of a game" it would have been trolling. Because today's game was a group of mouth-breathers quitting on the season.
(Yes, if you're curious, this post could well be labeled trolling. Watch it or I'll eat your ####### dog.)
Good question. Do they talk about that on the site?
They claim to have some kind of depth chart thing, but since the nature of the injuries to Beckett/Youkilis/Buchholz/Bedard are unclear, I'm not sure how it would be of much use. Their number seems falsely high, or at least contains a lot more variability/error than they indicate.
Not many good options given the state of the Sox rotation, but a Lackey/Weiland double-header seems likely to involve the long reliever(s) at some point.
Even if these things are worth another 10 percentage points - so make it 85% instead of 95% - they're not losing the wild card unless they plan to bring back Wes Gardner and Tom Bolton and have them make all the remaining starts.
Have you looked at the rotation?
ERA+
John Lackey - 66
Andrew Miller - 75
Tim Wakefield - 83
Wes Gardner - 94 (1988 & 1989)
Tom Bolton - 99 (1990 & 1991) in both cases their two fullish seasons as starters with the Sox
According to their report, they set Boston and New York as a .577 wpct team and Tampa Bay as a .540 wpct team. Tweaking those can make a major difference.
If I set Boston and New York as .500 teams and Tampa Bay as a .700 team and run through the rest of the season 10,000 times I get:
New York: 56.5% Div, 27.5% WC, 84.0% PL (Div + WC)
Boston: 26.0% Div, 39.0% WC, 65.0% PL
Tampa Bay: 17.5% Div, 33.5% WC, 51.0% PL
My guess is that the gap is smaller than that, so Tampa Bay's odds are lower across the board, but I do think B Pro is under-selling them.
You do realize these guys have been in the rotation pretty much all year (Wake 2/3 and Miller half the year). They've sucked all year, and the Sox have gone 32-28 in their starts. Yes, you'd rather send competent pitchers to the mound instead of this dreck, but their names don't actually equate to automatic L.
Second, 2/5ths of the Rays' rotation have sub 100 ERA+ (though not quite as far down). Where is the assumption that those clowns can't win.
Let's keep it dry fellas.
Sox could do wonders for themselves in this scenario by sweeping TOR or splitting the Rays.
* 1-1 vs TOR
1-3 vs TB
3-1 vs BALT
1-2 vs NY
1-2 vs BALT
** 2-1 vs BALT
3-1 vs. BOS
2-2 vs. NY
2-1 vs. TOR
2-1 vs. NY
Keep in mind NY has a lot of injury problems right now, if you didn't already know that.
And a lot of the doubt about the Rays seems to be based on the assumption that right now, the Red Sox are a better team. Why would you think that a team that has gone 19-21 in Aug/Sept. is better than one that has gone 25-13? I think 6 weeks is a good sample size of the present state of a team. And the Rays are upgrading slightly with Moore. Is Tazawa gonna kick Albers out of the BP?
At the end of the day if I'm being kind it looks like a coin-flip between the two team. 93% is beyond absurd.
I'm sure everyone has gone thru the permutations, but aren't the 7 TB-NY games a blessing? Tampa has to play a good team, or if they just steamroll NY and everyone else, the Sox only have to catch NY.
a) Because we have more than six weeks of data to go on.
b) Actual W/L over a stretch can be misleading, and runs scored/allowed may tell us more
c) If there's some basis to believe this, the question is one of degree, because even if Tampa Bay is better than Boston right now, the question is whether or not they're better enough that they can make up the remaining deficit between them.
If we go by actual runs scored and allowed since August 1:
Boston: 197 runs scored, 195 allowed, Pythagenpat wpct: .502
Tampa Bay: 171 runs scored, 122 runs allowed, Pythagenpat wpct:.647
If we go by the linear weights of batting events for and against since August 1:
Boston: 203 runs scored, 182 allowed, Pythagenpat wpct: .552
Tampa Bay: 173 runs scored, 134 runs allowed, Pythagenpat wpct:.614
If we assume actual runs scored/allowed is a good proxy for how good both teams are right now, and assuming a .525 Yankee team, the postseason odds for them look like:
Boston: 14.2% Div, 49.5% WC, 63.7% PL
Tampa Bay: 11.3% Div, 31.3% WC, 42.7% PL
Using the linear weights instead:
Boston: 25.2% Div, 53.8% WC, 79.0% PL
Tampa Bay: 5.7% Div, 18.2% WC, 23.8% PL
Anything can happen over 20 games, so any postseason odds at this point are more for illustration than utility. It really doesn't take much to swing these things widely, especially given the way all these teams' fates are intertwined.
If NY wern't reeling, I'd say so. I don't see the Sox recovering quite enough and NY to tank enough for the Sox to catch NY, But wouldn't that be awesome?
####, if it comes down to the last game and a healthy Lester or Beckett arn't scheduled to start, I say start Paps till his arm falls off, send in Bard, then let Aceves finish it.
Pretty much. The Red Sox are guaranteed to not lose ground on one of their two competitors seven times in the next 20 days. It looks like on the six days where the Yankees and Rays are playing, Boston is playing Baltimore on five of them and has an off day on one of them.
A. Extremely. I could see them blowing this. 70.38%
B. A little. They just don't seem quite right. 23.89%
C. Not at all. They'll get in gear when it counts. 3.42%
d. I'm keeping the faith. 2.3%
2011, the year the River Charles runs yellow?
EDIT: to be clear, that'd be trolling whether it were on Sox Therapy, the Newsblog, or the comments area at Jezebel. I guess you could say that more properly it's fanboy taunting, and not exactly trolling. Either way, it's something that we're usually lacking at BTF, and BTF is usually better for it.
I doubt anyone would feel that way if the screen name posting # 163 didn't show a certain affiliation. The post consisted of factual information on the extent of concern among Red Sox fans (to be taken with the usual caveats about online polls), followed up with an attempt at humor in keeping with the pants pissing meme in the title of the thread, which has also become a staple of numerous recent BBTF threads. Are only some people allowed to use it?
A. Extremely. I could see them blowing this. 70.38%
B. A little. They just don't seem quite right. 23.89%
C. Not at all. They'll get in gear when it counts. 3.42%
d. I'm keeping the faith. 2.3%
These poll options are terrible. C and D appear to be identical viewpoints. B is vague and arguably non-responsive. How does "they just don't seem quite right" equate with any particular level of confidence? A is so broad that it could encompass almost any fan's opinion.
I'd think the options should be more like this to get a realistic sense of the cumulative reader perspective:
How worried are you about the Red Sox?
A. Extremely. I expect them to miss the playoffs at this point.
B. Somewhat. They'll probably make the playoffs, but I could easily see them blowing this and falling short.
C. A little. They'll almost certainly make the playoffs, but this doesn't feel like a championship-caliber team.
D. Not at all. They'll get in gear when it counts. I'm keeping the faith.
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