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1. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: October 07, 2008 at 03:49 AM (#2972889)B) Should have gone straight to Papelbon
But who cares? ALCS! Woooooo!
i thought it was pretty obvious that papelbon wasn't really available
Sager asked Papelbon if he was ready to go tonight, and Papelbon replied, "I always got it, baby!" Then he sprayed Sager with champagne and jumped around whooping like a crazy person.
Really.
Gil Velazquez. Yeah. Gil Velazquez. He got a brief pre-game close-up and looked delighted.
Crazy game. Woooooo!!!
as possible to heal.
5 (Thu.), 6 (Sat.), 7 (Sun.) are the other games, for those who didn't know.
Passive voice, #####.
I think if you're going to start Wakefield over Byrd (and I think you should), I think you have to start him in a dome game. Thus, I would defy conventional wisdom and do the following:
Game 1 - Wakefield (Fri)
Game 2 - Lester (Sat) (normal rest)
Game 3 - Beckett (Mon) (extra rest)
Game 4 - Matsusaka (Tues) (extra extra rest)
Game 5 - Lester (Thurs) (normal rest)
Game 6 - Beckett (Sat) (normal rest)
Game 7 - Matsusaka/All hands on deck (Sun) (Mastsusaka on normal rest)
I'll admit, it's damn unconventional, but Wakefield in game 1 makes the most sense to me given all the other variables, and you can do it and still get 2 starts from each of Lester/Beckett/Matsusaka, with none of them on short rest.
Seconded
Cold - ball not traveling well - two run lead and he was batting righty - show some balls for Christ sakes
For his career, Wakefield has a 3.92 ERA in domes, a 4.18 ERA at home, a 4.06 ERA in cold-weather March/April, and a 4.20 ERA in cold-weather September/October. Sure, he has a career 2.86 ERA in Tampa Bay, but in 2008 he has a 5.87 ERA in Tampa Bay.
Suffice it to say, I see little reason to think that the advantage in pitching Wakefield (even if there is one, and I remain to be convinced that there is one) is significant enough to bump him ahead of the three clearly superior starters in the rotation. I mean, I like Mark Bellhorn, but I don't want the Sox to sign him and start him over Dustin Pedroia (though the ALDS version of Pedroia was hardly the MVP of the previous few months).
dERA ERA IPBeckett 3.24 4.03 174.1
Lester 3.78 3.21 210.1
Matsuzaka 4.11 2.90 167.2
Wakefield 4.66 4.13 181.0
Fortunately, I remain confident that Francona won't start Wakefield in Game 1.
Then again...777 OPS in AA. Not the best. Swift drop for him...
My proposed rotation in #19 was based on the following facts:
(1) They need a 4th starter for the series
(2) It seems they prefer to start Wakefield instead of Byrd because of the catching issue, saving Byrd as the long man. This could very well be important if Beckett blows up in his next start (which to me is at least a 25% possibility you need to have a plan B for).
(3) If you're going to start Wakefield against TB, my guess is they'd rather have him start in the dome, where there is less possible variability with winds, etc. for the knuckleball. That leaves only Games 1, 2, 6 & 7 for the start, and I'm guessing they would prefer him not to start a Game 6 or 7 if they could help it.
(4) Starting Wakefield (or Byrd, even, if you wanted to go that way--I prefer Wakefield but couldn't argue with Byrd) in Game 1 allows your other 3 starters to slot in for 2 starts each, while allowing extra rest early in the series for starters they'd prefer to get it (Beckett & Matsusaka).
(5) I don't think the Red Sox think a Game 1 loss is any more or less important than a Game 4 loss (unless you were down 0-3, of course), and so who starts Game 1 is less important in the bigger picture to them then how they slot things for Games 1-7 on the whole.
I'm not saying the Red Sox will do what I'm proposing--I think it's rather unlikely--but it isn't totally crazy, and if you happen to win Game 1 with Wakefield starting, it's a huge boost, because now you're set up the rest of the series. If you lose Game 1, well, it's only Game 1 and you're still set up the rest of the series with the best starters you have (with 2 of them getting extra rest in there). It's at least worth considering, is all I'm saying.
What's a Bellhorn?
Velazquez is an average fielder commiting few errors. He is a shortstop that always pays attention of what is happening so he can field the ball. He has average run speed, which also helps him field balls easily and is able to run bases well and steal bases well on occasions.
That's some damn fine scouting!
nice.
You can replace him, but then the guy (Lowell, in this case) is automatically unavailable for the next series.
B) Reggie Willits played a fascinating role in this ALDS. Has a defensive replacement / pinch runner ever been involved in so many key moments? The really weird thing was it appeared that Scioscia was pushing all the right Willits-buttons but it just wasn't working out for the Halos... He got him in there as a defensive replacement in game 2, only to have Ortiz's blast bounce out of his glove. Then he pinch ran but couldn't outrun a catcher back to 3rd base last night, although that play was hardly Reggie's fault. Then he makes a great effort at Bay's slicer 5 minutes later, but comes up just short. Of course Lowrie singled to right two batters later, so that it was on Willits to make the miracle throw, which he could not do. Wow.
C) Manny Ramirez now has a super chance of earning a WS share... If Dodgers and Sox advance, will he be the first player, or at least the first starter, to have a financial stake in either team winning?
Isn't a share voted on by players after the series? Manny's not guaranteed one (and as TomH says, it would be an interesting vote), so I don't think there's any conflict involved.
Our favorite retired homophobic relief pitcher pretty much confirms your take .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
But I suppose in theory if the Sox gave him the 60% he "earned" and the Dodgers--feeling grateful for all that Manny did for the team--gave him a higher percentage than his games played, Manny could earn something like a 110% share.
That is very interesting and the kind of thing we don't pay enough attention to.
Sounds like the players have complete control over who gets what. Sure a player should probably *expect* to get something if he played for the team - but it doesn't sound like they are guaranteed anything.
I'm pretty sure Nomar got a full share in 2004. I would be really surprised if Manny doesn't get a full share from the Sox - they've always seemingly been generous with those types of things. (The new truck for the bullpen catcher comes to mind)
Yes, it is. Congrats to Red Sox and fans. So, if we get the FOXgasm matchup of LAD/BOS, who will karlmangus be pulling for?
49. Grady Little Posted: October 07, 2008 at 12:24 PM (#2973402)
NOW you tell me!
49: post spoofing numbering fail
Oh, and no Wakefield start, I'm rooting for the Dodgers!
I've read an edited textbook. Well, part of it.
He also has a 6.36 ERA in the postseason. (sorry km)
With '99, that also makes 5 out of 10...
The way he described it also seemed to indicate that it was a pretty close call in his mind.
game 2 - Beckett
game 3 - Lester
game 4 - Wake
interesting.
I wouldnt be surprised if, in the case of one of the first 2 games being an extra-inning marathon (as the Sox are known to be involved in during the LCS), Wakefield ends up being used in relief and then Byrd will go in game 4.
Game 1 - Matsusaka (Fri)
Game 2 - Lester (Sat) (normal rest)
Game 3 - Beckett (Mon) (extra rest)
Game 4 - Wakefield (Tues)
Game 5 - Lester (Thurs) (normal rest)
Game 6 - Matsusaka (Sat) (7 days rest)
Game 7 - Beckett/All hands on deck (Sun) (Beckett on 5 days' rest)
Matsusaka pitches both games away from Fenway (where he's better); Lester pitches 2 of the first 5 games on normal rest, we steal extra rest for Beckett for both starts, as well as for Matsusaka. I don't get this extra rest for Lester issue that's come up--unless he has an injury that has not been disclosed, he should be fine. Pitching him in 2 of the first 5 games is a decided advantage and we're pissing it away throwing him in Game 3 and a Game 7 we may not get to see. Worse, if Beckett blows up for good in Game 2, then you're totally screwed and start Paul Byrd in Game 6. At least if you find out he's toast in Game 3 you can punt such a move to a Game 7, when presumably it would be all hands on deck anyway.
I'm probably missing something here; I just don't see the rotation setup in #62 as optimal.
[Edit: I had Lester pitching in Games 3 & 6 in the scheme in #62, when it is likely it would be Games 3 & 7; edited accordingly.]
I agree. Your post pretty much sums up my thoughts when I saw the rotation setup on the Globe's website. My first, visceral, reaction was that it reflected an overconfidence bordering on arrogance.
The team had a chance to throw their best pitcher in games 2 and 5 on full rest, and didn't do it. If the series goes 5, you pitched Dice twice and your best pitcher once. Series goes six, you still only pitched your best guy once.
I confess, I don't get it. I understand the Dice K on the road thing. But I don't understand Beckett in game two unless they truly believe his troubles in the ALDS were rust related.
I didn't see rust. I just saw a short fastball. Who knows. I hope I'm wrong and Dice K leads the charge to victory and a Lester game 1 WS start. The pessimist side of me says 0-2 hole going to Boston and a five game ALCS loss.
Granted, I'm not that smart, but I don't get it.
Correct. Ignoring the other factors, pitching Dice-K/Beckett/Lester in 1-3 and 4-7 is no different than Dice-K/Lester/Beckett in those games, even if Lester>>Beckett.
I do wonder if, as noted in #63, it would be preferable to have Beckett pitching the "all hands on deck" G7, since he seems to be more likely to be taken out early at this point.
Hell, I saw both!
Francona's playing the home/road splits. Beckett's better on the road, Lester's better at home, so he's pitching them so that, at least in their first respective starts, Beckett's on the road and Lester is at home.
IIRC, guys who come to a team late in the year and are key contributors usually are voted a full share. So the Sox would vote one to Bay, and the Dodgers to Manny, though Manny's potential for a Sox share as well could have sway.
I'll be there next tuesday night!
Wake's been marginally better indoors over his career. at the Trop, he's had a 2.86 career ERA, although up until this year he was always facing atrocious teams.
He's had a varied League Championship Career: 2 complete game wins in 92 for the Bucs. Left off the roster in 1999. 2 wins versus the Yankees in 2003, but of course the relief appearance in game 7. In 2004: bad stats for the series after getting lit up out of the pen in games 1 & 3, but a season-saving 3 shutout innings in the magical soul-quaking game 5 (which happens to be Wake's last relief appearance). And then last year he got lit up by the Indians in his only LCS game.
give them to me for free
and if you want good karma, there are hundreds of thousands of people who would buy them for face value.
Correct. There is an illusion that the order matters, since Game 7 will often not be played, however that only happens when it wouldn't make a difference anyways. In retrospect, did the Angels win in Game 3 of the Division Series matter? Or the three Indians wins in the ALCS last year? The only difference between Game 7 and the other games of the series is that you know AHEAD of time whether or not Game 7 will make a difference.
The ordering of your starters might matter to "momentum" or "confidence", and it can definitely affect whether the series finishes in six games or seven, but mathematically it shouldn't make any difference to the outcome.
My goals for the post-season rotation:
(1) Get Lester, Matsuzaka, and Beckett two starts each. They are the Red Sox best pitchers.
(2) Get Lester into as many home games as possible. Matsuzaka is slightly better on the road than in Fenway. Beckett is MUCH better on the road than in Fenway, and has been in each of the last two years.
(3) Get Matsuzaka extra rest as much as possible. He is a good pitcher on "normal" rest. Excepting the horrendous start in which he was rushed back from the DL (officially 24 days rest, but actually just five days after his one and only rehab start), Matsuzaka has a 3.07 ERA on normal rest, a 2.49 ERA with 5 days rest, and a 1.66 ERA with 6 days rest (13, 8, and 7 GS respectively). You don't want to piss away an advantage like that over lesser considerations.
(4) Avoid having Lester make any unnecessary starts. He is already ~60 innings over his previous career high, and we want him to remain healthy and effective for 2009 and beyond.
Seems that these goals are pretty much what Francona is achieving with his chosen rotation, no?
She's a bit giddy. (I didn't tell her about Timlin.)
In the playoffs, I don't expect to see Timlin before the 12th inning of any close game.
He will nonetheless likely be more useful than Gil Velazquez.
Not that Ive heard. In the ALDS Maddon stayed away from using him in logical spots, though... so maybe.
I think its a big karmic mistake on Tampa's part... you gotta give Hinske a revenge chance. Not that he has any reason to take revenge on the Sox, but the way players regularly torch their former teams... you need that karma on your side. Also, he's a better player than whoever replaced him and has a lot of uses.
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