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Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Sox Therapy Predictions?

With just over 144 hours until first pitch I have a few items rattling through my head.  Presented with some comment are some over/unders on the coming season (over/unders generated from the warped and often wrong mind of Jose);

Hanley Ramirez Homers - 25.5 - UNDER - We have seen Hanley play with a bad shoulder and it did not go well.

Sandy Leon Most Starts as Catcher - UNDER - I am not sure who winds up with the most but I don’t think it’s Leon.  If Vazquez hits even a little bit I think he wins the job fairly early and Swihart looms in the offing.

David Price Starts - 22.5 - OVER - Despite the uncertainty at the moment even a David Price who returns in mid-May can make 25+ starts.  The best predictor of pitcher health is pitcher health and that is something Price has always had.  I think the Sox are patient with him but when he’s back, he’s back for good.

Mitch Moreland OPS+ - 105 - OVER - I am very excited about Moreland and I don’t know why.  He’s a big dude and seeing him in Fort Myers he seemed to be genuinely looking to benefit from the monster.  I think he becomes a fan favorite.

Jackie Bradley Jr. OPS+ - 110 - OVER - He may be spectacularly streaky but he has an OPS+ of 118 over two years and 220 games.  I think what we are seeing is the real thing with JBJ.

Pablo Sandoval WAR - 2.2 - UNDER - The number isn’t randomly chosen, it is what Travis Shaw did a year ago.  Sandoval looked better and better each time I saw him in the Fort but I’m not buying him.

Robby Scott Appearances - Fernando Abad Appearances - OVER - I will be surprised if Abad keeps his job through Memorial Day.  Scott has done nothing but impress and Abad has done nothing. 

Chris Sale Wins - 15.5 - OVER - His average across five seasons has been 14 wins but a healthy Chris Sale with this team should be eclipsing that number comfortably.

Team Wins - 91.5 - UNDER - I don’t think the Sox will be terrible or anything, don’t get me wrong.  This feels like a high 80s team rather than a low 90s team to me.  Injuries in the rotation (Price, Pomeranz), the bullpen (Thornburg), lineup

Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: March 28, 2017 at 01:12 PM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. villageidiom Posted: March 28, 2017 at 05:40 PM (#5424970)
Mitch Moreland OPS+ - 105 - OVER - I am very excited about Moreland and I don’t know why.  He’s a big dude and seeing him in Fort Myers he seemed to be genuinely looking to benefit from the monster.  I think he becomes a fan favorite.

I think he comes storming out of the gate, starts a slow descent mid-May, and starts losing playing time to everyone possible from the All-Star break onward. And it's that last part that has me taking the over. He'll be at like 108, but the shape of it will be Hillenbrandesque.

Pablo Sandoval WAR - 2.2 - UNDER - The number isn’t randomly chosen, it is what Travis Shaw did a year ago.  Sandoval looked better and better each time I saw him in the Fort but I’m not buying him.
I'm going with the WAY OVER. I'm taking CFBPS to school.
   2. villageidiom Posted: March 28, 2017 at 05:42 PM (#5424971)
Bonus round: rank the infielders by descending 2017 WAR. Go.
   3. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 28, 2017 at 05:47 PM (#5424974)
Pablo Sandoval WAR - 2.2 - UNDER . . .

Saw a bit of a Red Sox exhibition game that was on the MLB Network the other day. Sandoval didn't look as thin as earlier reports had suggested.
   4. Nasty Nate Posted: March 28, 2017 at 05:55 PM (#5424976)
I think you set the lines pretty well. (I'll add some more below for fun)

Hanley Ramirez Homers - 25.5 - OVER
Sandy Leon Most Starts as Catcher - the Field
David Price Starts - 22.5 - UNDER
Mitch Moreland OPS+ - 105 - UNDER
Jackie Bradley Jr. OPS+ - 110 - OVER
Pablo Sandoval WAR - 2.2 - UNDER
Chris Sale Wins - 15.5 - no bet - the gambler in me says that UNDER 15.5 wins is the bet for any SP, but my heart wants to predict 17-19 wins.
----
----
Porcello - Innings - 180
Saves by pitchers other than Kimbrel - 7.5
Positions at which Holt starts a game - 4.5
Bogaerts' batting average - .300
   5. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: March 28, 2017 at 06:02 PM (#5424979)
Seven years in The Bandbox in Arlington and Moreland has produced a .254/.315/.438 line good for an OPS+ of 100. I just don't see him as the kind of contact hitter who's going to be spraying doubles off the wall. Historically he's a fast starter, well... faster than he finishes, so vi's forecast in [1] could well be spot on.
   6. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: March 28, 2017 at 09:26 PM (#5425049)
vi - Bogaerts, Pedroia, Sandoval, Moreland

YC - Yeah, I mentioned this to my father. You get an appreciation for the type of shape athletes are in. The standalone shots of Sandoval this winter you could see him in great shape, but get him next to his peers and you realize he's in great shape compared to you or I, not compared to MLB players. That said he's not morbidly obese like he was in 2015 and 2016, he looks like the San Francisco Giant version.

Nate - Over on Porcelo, under on Saves, over on Holt (2b, 3b, ss, RF, LF), and over on Bogaerts.

Pat - Nothing really to offer, just didn't want to leave you out.
   7. villageidiom Posted: March 28, 2017 at 11:02 PM (#5425086)
vi - Bogaerts, Pedroia, Sandoval, Moreland
I am going with Bogaerts, Sandoval, Moreland, Pedroia. For some reason I expect Pedroia to have an injury-plagued year.
   8. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: March 29, 2017 at 12:23 AM (#5425096)
For some reason I expect Pedroia to have an injury-plagued year.


Ah, the reverse curse....smooth. Hoping for a 5 WAR season really though, right?
   9. madvillain Posted: March 29, 2017 at 01:24 AM (#5425102)
Chris Sale is going to win a lot of games for you guys. Take the over.
   10. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: March 29, 2017 at 08:46 AM (#5425146)
mad - Is Moncada making the Opening Day roster in Chicago?
   11. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: March 29, 2017 at 08:46 AM (#5425147)
Bailey, Hanrahan, Smith, Thornburgh...maybe we stop trading for relievers? At least Thornburgh isn't going for Tommy John surgery (so far).
   12. villageidiom Posted: March 29, 2017 at 12:33 PM (#5425312)
At least Thornburgh isn't going for Tommy John surgery (so far).
No, that's next year, after he sucks while trying to pitch through his issues this year.
   13. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: March 30, 2017 at 08:46 AM (#5425787)
Alex Speier tweeted yesterday that Robby Scott is going to be on the Opening Day roster so they can carry 8 relievers. Sounds like just a chance to get Pomeranz some work and make sure he's 100% before his first start.
   14. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 30, 2017 at 10:32 AM (#5425850)
Hanley Ramirez Homers: UNDER, I think he'll be around 120 OPS+, but I feel like last year was as good a power year as he'll have.

Sandy Leon at C: UNDER, I don't think he's repeating his insanely hot stretch from last year and at that point Vasquez becomes the better option.

David Price Starts: UNDER, I think he'll have at least one setback in recovery even if I think he should be fine for the stretch run.

Mitch Moreland OPS+: UNDER, I just don't see it happening.

JBJ OPS+: OVER, the dude will have at least two stretches where he looks like Mickey Mantle circa 1958, and at least two others where he looks like Mickey Mantle circa 1998. It'll equal out to a 115 OPS+ or so.

Pablo Sandoval WAR: UNDER, I'd be pleasantly surprised if he provided even 1/2 that much.

Robby Scott Appearances > Fernando Abad Appearances: OVER, the only reason I think I'll be wrong is if Scott gets hurt.

Chris Sale Wins: OVER, dude is going to win 20. Mark it down.

Team Wins: UNDER, 92 wins is a lot and I think the AL East's worst team will probably still win 75... the Sox won't have any creampuffs to pad the record with.

Saves by pitchers other than Kimbrel: OVER

Positions at which Holt starts a game: OVER, I think he'll get at least one game at 3B, 1B, RF, LF, and 2B. And probably SS. And maybe CF.

Bogaerts' batting average: OVER, Bogaerts is going to be a line drive machine.

Porcello Innings: OVER, with a 95 ERA+. HE'S A BUM.

Number of times Rick Porcello drives me crazy during the regular season - 32.5 - OVER. HE'S A BUM!

Bonus Round: Bogaerts, Pedroia, Moreland, Panda. Bogaerts and Pedroia will probably be around 10 combined WAR, Moreland and Panda around 0.
   15. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 30, 2017 at 11:00 AM (#5425876)
CFBPS renoobulating. Please wait...

Error. Dumping partial computations to file.


Andrew Benintendi: .315/.375/.500, Rookie of the Year and also winner of this season's Bachelorette.

Mookie Betts: 40 DRS, .370/.450/.670, wins the triple crown, MVP, most all star votes, and is made President of the United States after his walk off World Series winning home run (coming the inning after stealing a potential walk off home run) to the acclaim of every single person in America and the world, including Donald Trump (impeached) and Vladimir Putin. Retires during the postseason to save the free world and to join the pro bowling tour.

Xander Bogaerts: 0 DRS, .350/.400/.500. Releases his mix tape, "Laser Show Part II: Straight Outta Orangjestad," to critical acclaim.

Jackie Bradley Jr.: 25 DRS, .335/.380/.530, while only having ONE swoon at the plate so bad that he looks like he's never seen a baseball before.

Craig Kimbrel: 55 Saves, 1 Blown Save. Blown save comes after the Red Sox allow a Make A Wish child to hit an "inside the park home run" in the bottom of the 9th at a game in Baltimore, but Kimbrel gets the win as he proceeds to strike out the next six batters. Child immediately signs with Scott Boras, Jon Heyman rates child as #1 upcoming prospect in baseball.

Dustin Pedroia: 25 DRS, .351/.401/.501, 162 games played. The success of Bogaerts mixtape sees Pedroia's competitive fires stoked, as he demands everyone recognize the ORIGINAL Laser Show. Goes 6 for 6 on the final day of the season to see his slash line pass that of the upstart Bogaerts.

Rick Porcello: 34 GS, 18-11, 220 IP, 190 Ks, 3.60 ERA, 5.20 xFIP. Leading cause of karlmagnusitis on small Sox fan board "Sox Therapy."

David Price: 30 GS, 20-6, 200 IP, 280 Ks, 2.25 ERA, and is an absolute stud in the postseason, leading Fangraphs to rank him amongst the best values for contract.

Chris Sale: 34 GS, 27-0, 220 IP, 310 Ks, 1.88 ERA, 32 tacky gimmick jerseys destroyed after doing so on opening day leads him to pitch a perfecto in his Red Sox debut.

Error. Renoobulations incomplete.
   16. karlmagnus Posted: March 30, 2017 at 01:31 PM (#5426045)
Hanley: OVER More Hitters called Ramirez are what the Sox need.

Leon: UNDER. Man's a waste of space; blocking Swihart. Get rid of him, in order to prevent Dombrowski trading Swihart for a stray reliever

Price: UNDER. I'll bet he ends up requiring surgery by mid-season.

Moreland: OVER, but only just. I agree he appears competent.

Bradley: Again, OVER, but only just. I think we may get some regression from last year.

Sandoval: OVER, but it depends what WaR does with his fielding. I think he'll put up 3 or so as a hitter, but WaR may ding him.

Scott: OVER I agree Abad seems a lost cause

Sale: OVER. All pitchers are injury risks, but Sale looks like the type of capable egotist who flourishes in Boston.

Team Wins: OVER I don't think they'll get to 100, but Sale minus Ortiz looks like a clear win to me, and the youth movement getting better is also a factor. Porcello and EdRod are major pluses for me.


   17. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: March 31, 2017 at 09:34 AM (#5426551)
Wow, we've entered an era of optimistic karl. This will take some getting used to. :-)

How ya' been karl? I don't know about you but I am SO ready for baseball to start.
   18. karlmagnus Posted: March 31, 2017 at 10:56 AM (#5426635)
Hi Jose, so am I ready for baseball to start, finally.

I like this Red Sox team, one of the best. The mix of Cherington and Dombrowski looks like working well. I suspect I won't like 2019 as much, with 2 more years of Dombrowski and the prospect closet absolutely bare. So my optimism is strictly temporary!
   19. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 31, 2017 at 12:27 PM (#5426739)
The mix of Cherington and Dombrowski looks like working well. I suspect I won't like 2019 as much, with 2 more years of Dombrowski and the prospect closet absolutely bare. So my optimism is strictly temporary!


This, 1000 times. Cherington got a lot of #### for trades, but he did amazingly well amassing an impressive crop of young talent. And Dombrowski probably was the right guy to come in and start trading for established talent. Pomeranz is the big question for me. I've got no issues with the Sox bowing out early on the potential of Espinoza, but I really hope Dombrowski didnt whiff on Pomeranz, especially considering they had the opportunity to retract the trade.
   20. villageidiom Posted: April 22, 2017 at 09:13 PM (#5440658)
I am going with Bogaerts, Sandoval, Moreland, Pedroia. For some reason I expect Pedroia to have an injury-plagued year.
I have taken over jinx responsibilities from Jose, apparently.

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