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1. Robert S. Posted: September 28, 2005 at 03:48 AM (#1648027)No, I don't feel comfortable w/ him managing the Red Sox this weekend or in the playoffs, but I don't know how much of that is him or the bullpen. Hey, at least the Yankees, Indians, and white sox all lost, but that is what would have made this win so big I know.
But, really, the problems are simpler than that:
The starter tonight has an ERA around 6
The young guys in the pen have been very shaky
The R/L combo are much less effective against expanded rosters
The defense doesn't do any of them any favors
Tito had two good pitchers he could really count on, and he used them to win the first game. The rest of the pitchers did a poor job in the second game.
I'd really like to see Lenny Dinardo get a shot, and I don't understand why he doesn't. But that's just one guy, and I don't think he'd be better than a 4.25 ERA. That's useful, but it's not that good.
In one breath, you're thinking ahead 4 games and in the next you're saying that we can't plan for a game later the same day, because we don't know the outcome. Wake for another inning is as good or better choice than Paps. Saving Paps allows you to use him for as many as 2 Ip in game 2.
I liked pulling Wake early - you win the game you can win, then you plan for the nightcap.
I didn't see where Papelbon gave us a better chance to win than Wakefield. I saw the opposite.
The starter tonight has an ERA around 6
The young guys in the pen have been very shaky
The R/L combo are much less effective against expanded rosters
The defense doesn't do any of them any favors
As for the starter, shouldn't a 6 ERA make Tito give him a short leash? Have the young guys really gotten a chance to prove their shakiness? I don't think the R/L combo is any less effective against expanded rosters--you only deploy against guys who won't be PH for anyways. Agree that the defense is lousy, but it can be helped if you sit Millar after his AB in the 7th.
To the degree that it's Tito's fault that Petagine, Payton, Dinardo and now Hyzdu aren't getting any playing time, I find that a much larger problem. I tend to split that blame pretty evenly between the FO and Tito.
I'm not responding to every question you asked - most of them I basically agree with - but I don't agree with the premise behind questioning whether the young guys have proven their shakiness. It's not provable in a month or two. All we've got is observation, and none of the young guys have been consistently strong in their stuff out of the bullpen. When Hansen locates his slider and fastball in the same night, it'll be a first. When Papelbon comes to the mound knowing which breaking stuff he'll depend on, it'll be, well, a second, I think. When Manny D shows up with a breaking pitch, I'll jump for joy. I love these guys, and I think they'll be really helpful, but for now, they're shaky.
Assuming you have to choose... Is it more important to ride Wake for 8 IP against Toronto on Tuesday, or for 8 IP vs. the Yankees on Saturday? If I had to choose, I'd pick the latter.
Now, perhaps we don't have to choose. Maybe we can expect Wake to go another 8 IP against a relentless lineup, with the season on the line, on three days' rest. And although he's a knuckleballer, and he's done this sort of thing before, and I wouldn't trust anyone else with that situation, I still don't think it's the best option.
Whether he had to go specifically to Papelbon and Timlin to close it out, I don't know. They are the better relievers at this point, and it was a fairly high-leverage situation. I think we should be pretty satisfied with the usage.
As for Trot... I'd have let him play both halves. He'd get plenty of rest today when I'd sit him vs. Lilly, and I didn't think the field conditions were conducive to injury yesterday. I might have considered a defensive sub for health reasons, but Damon, not Trot, would have been my first choice.
As for Trot... I'd have let him play both halves.
But, Trot can't hit lefties. He never has. Adam Hyzdu, on the other hand, can hit lefties.
That one doesn't seem particularly complicated to me. What am I missing?
Game 1 was a tight game, we used good pitchers in high-lev situations, we won.
Game 2, we were ahead 5-4 after 5. On average, the Blue Jays can be expected to score 2 runs over the final 4 innings against our pitching staff, giving them 6. (They in fact scored 3, giving them 7).
Our offense can be expected to score 2 or 3 runs over the final 4 innings, giving us 7 or 8.
The reason we lost Game 2 is not because we gave up 3 runs during innings 6 through 9, but because we scored zero runs during innings 6 through 9.
I don't see that as being in any way Tito's fault. YMMV.
Why use that as your endpoint? Why not, "we were ahead 5-2 after 4?" Or how about, "it was tied 0-0 before the game?"
I'm just using the endpont that everyone else in this thread seems to be using.
You gotta use your best bullpen guys in the 3-1 game, I think. You cant assume game 2 is going to be close, with this team a blowout is likely enough.
My problems with game two really just concern the use of Hansen. I'd rather he be out there with no one on. This is his third -- third! -- major league game. He is approaching what, 80 innings thrown this year? He had a dead arm just a few weeks ago. I don't see him as anything close to a savior and I'd really rather he be introduced to the league in better situations. For example, even KRod's first introduction to coming in with men on happened with two outs, and in his third appearance.
Anyway, maybe even that is picking at nits.
In about 378 PA Wake: struckout 57, walked 44, and gave up 14 HRs. Needless to say, not good. I think Wake tires a lot more than people think he does. But it also seems observable casually, he seems to be pushing the ball to the plate, it starts falling a lot earlier and he gets behind.
Which is to say that leaving Wake in could have quite possible cost us that game.
Though Darren, you are right, that I was using two very conflicting principles. Regardless, I'll stand by what I've just researched, which is that you get Wake out of the game right when Francona got him out. Or actually, it should have been sooner, but that's not the relevant point.
The blame I think, as our resident Beastie Boy MCA pointed out, lies with our front office and the crappy pen. I think Torre is relatively good w/ his bulpen, but what would he have done on the day of a doubleheader vis-a-vis his pen? I don't know, maybe the best option was to try to get 2 innings out of Timlin or Paplebon in the first game? In fact, I think that is the best strategy, use them each for 2 in each of the games.
He definitely does get tired. In fact, he fell apart in the eighth in his previous start, so I had no problem with pulling him after seven in game one.
In game two, you absolutely have to take Schilling out after six innings though. He'd already thrown about 100 pitches, not terribly effectively, and he's shown almost no ability to pitch deep into ballgames this year.
The Red Sox were lucky to escape that inning at 5-5, and maybe Bradford gives up a run anyway if he pitches that whole inning and it's a moot point, but you can't send Schilling back out there.
The other problems people have with game two just seem to be a reality of how bad this bullpen is. Once it got to second and third with one out in the eighth, I actually said to myself, "Do you go to Hansen here just because you need the strikeout and he can get it if he's on?"
In the ninth, I probably would have gone with Timlin again because he didn't throw that many pitches in game one and there's a big difference between going to the bottom down one and down two.
Lenny DiNardo!
no, but then, I didn't feel comfortable with Lowe starting game 7 of last year's ALCS, either.
At least he was healthy.
LoweSchillingwasis still a better bet thanKevin BrownMike MussinaAt least
wasishealthyhealthier .Dan (Pasadena): What happened with that Cuban 1B that the Red Sox signed? I understand that they're now trying to cut him loose...
SportsNation Jim Callis: (3:00 PM ET ) He turned out to be 30 and not 26. Who knew Cuban defectors lied about their age? I'm shocked.
[Abreu is 30? But Gammo said he wasn't fungible...]
Schill had APPARENTLY tired after the 6th. No question over here in tfgb9land, but we must remember that we're just a bunch a lifeless dweebs on the outside and looking in. Maybe Dinardo was physically unable to contibute last night or something. I always assume that there's something we don't know. For instance, the non-use of Foulke in the blowout the other day elicited howls from these quarters, yet afterwards we all found out that Keith was unable to go. It might be something like that, after all.
I have no explanation on the use of Harville. He walked Shea Hill-in-bred on 4 pitches.
I like that one: SHEA HILL-IN-BRED! I'm a genius!
This was in the Globe a week ago and, I think, mentioned in a chatter or two. The Red Sox are seeking to void the deal. He also can't establish residency, which I imagine was b/c he was using fake papers with a fake age!
That one doesn't seem particularly complicated to me. What am I missing?
They both have around a .300 OBP vs. lefties over the last few years at the MLB level. Hyzdu's SLG vs. lefties is better, but still not enough for me to think I'm causing a significant downgrade to the team in one game by putting Trot in there.
Subjectively, though, I think Lilly vs. Trot is much more of a disaster than Chacin vs. Trot. And I think he gets better rest out of (2 on Tuesday + 0 on Wed) than from (1 on Tues and 1 on Wed). I'd sit him today, but wouldn't see a need for it in game 2 yesterday.
Maybe he is a fake hitter too? In reality, he hits like Rey Sanchez.
That's a sample of about 100 AB for Hyzdu. We know from MGL's research that even full season platoon split stats for RHB do not shed light of their true split. There's no way 100 AB over four years means anything.
Adam Hyzdu, last I checked, looked like he had a projection (including MLE) in the 720 OPS range. That's looking like a useful 800 OPS vs lefties. Trot, on the other hand, has terrible stats and looks subjectively terrible.
I'm not worried about resting Trot. I'm worried about the fact that he can't hit lefties.
Let me refer you to post #28, re: A Slow Gun, as authored by notable tool tfbg9.
Pathetic.
Nothing is simple this year , Biff.
I'd also like to point out that the burial of Adam Hyzdu helped kill at least two rallies last night. Would either have grown into the gamebreaker I was waiting for before giving up and watching Lost, which was good but somewhat repetitive, and didn't answer the Desmond question at all? Hard to say. But there's little doubt in my mind that having someone in the lineup who could hit lefties would have improved the Red Sox chances of scoring runs against a lefty.
Lost is very good at not answering questions, that's for sure.
1. DiNardo was pretty damn good in relief (I'm not surprised); and
2. KFF still sucks.
I just keep telling myself, it's always darkest before the dawn (which, I admit, is a bit overwrought for the situation, but so is McNally's "no good thing ever dies." Have I become my enemy?)
DB
What's his MLE OBP, though... Around .300, right? And, given that I've been told to dismiss the only splits I have, is there any reason I should assume his MLE OBP vs. lefties should be higher than .300?
Again, Hyzdu's power numbers vs. lefties are better than Trot's; I'm simply trying to make the point that - against lefties - Trot isn't making more outs than Hyzdu would.
Of course, my argument for letting Trot play 2 on Tuesday was that he'd get Wednesday off. And he didn't. So I'm with you on the Hyzdu Freedom Campaign. While I'm OK with giving Trot some opportunities vs. LHP, I certainly don't think he should get all the opportunities.
Why not a Cleveland loss?
To paraphrase one of my favorite despair.com bits, it's also darkest before it goes pitch black.
17.2IP 8.66ERA 20H 17R 17ER
8.15K/9 5.09BB/9 1.60K/BB .282BAA
Can DiNardo pitch again tonight?
Look Clement can pitch well, I still really hate the way Varitek catches him. Why, oh why, don't we have a better game plan w/ Clement? He did it w/ Lowe last year, and I'm sick of it, and I'm sick of nobody noticing. Get up 0-2 and 1-2 on hitters, move to the corner, take two pitches when they move out of the zone, and then you have to put it over the plate.
LET THE MAN THROW OVER THE PLATE. He has great movement, just sit on the plate and let him throw. Am I wrong about this? Varitek it seems thinks too much when he has pitchers w/ great movement. With a guy like Schilling or Arroyo, he's great, they need location and knowledge of the hitters to be effective.
Not with Clement or Lowe. When you're up on a hitter, throw the ball with movement through the zone, they'll have to swing. Sometimes they'll get hits, sometimes they'll strike out, sometimes they'll ground out. But they won't walk.
And breathe.
The best assumption is a normal split. A normal split means, for an RHB, an increase in both OBP and SLG against a left-handed pitcher. So, yes, there is a very good reason to project Hyzdu to a significantly better OBP.
The best assumption is a normal split. A normal split means, for an RHB, an increase in both OBP and SLG against a left-handed pitcher. So, yes, there is a very good reason to project Hyzdu to a significantly better OBP.
The projected split is, iirc, 1.08:1, right? So, assuming lefties are about 30% of the ABs in normal season, that is about a 315/290 split to get a OBP of 300, right?
The projected split is, iirc, 1.08:1, right? So, assuming lefties are about 30% of the ABs in normal season, that is about a 315/290 split to get a OBP of 300, right?
Right.
And Trot's OBP vs. LHP in his MLB career is .308.
So, Mikael, why are you throwing words like "significantly" around?
I thought - and I need to look this up - but I thought Hyzdu's MLE OBP was much more in the .330 range, with relatively low power - sub-400.
Either way, I see little reason to restrict our discussion to OBP. Isn't a significant difference is SLG an important thing? Why are we dividing offensive value into components instead of looking at a comprehensive picture? Does it matter if Hyzdu is +5 or +10 in SLG rather than OBP?
I argue that based on statistics and observation, Adam Hyzdu should take the majority of starts against LHP.
That's what ESPN radio is reporting.
Well, he didn't get the start tonight, again.
All according to plan...
As much as we slag on the guy, Tito deserves credit for leaving in Papelbon to finish the game tonight, and even for bringing him in when we were down by one run. Ace reliever!
I figured out Hyzdu's MLE for the year and it was something like .320 OBP/.400 SLG. Coming into the year, he was projected by ZIPS to hit .360/.480.
I tried using the new ZIPsPlus thing, which said that he should be expected to put up .314/.500 for the rest of the year, which seem wrong to me. Also, if I changed the number of games left, it changed his projection drastically.
Regardless of the details, there's no reason to believe that Nixon will out hit Hyzdu against a lefty, and there's plenty of reason to think Hyzdu will be better. Of course, there's also plenty of reason to think Petagine could outhit Millar and Olerud, but when has reason entered to Tito's thinking.
Exciting game tonight. Hope we will tomorrow because Saturday will be big Unit vs. Trot.
The Greatest Hero in American History. I'm watching him on postgame now.
What's he been worth? I'm figuring 17 wins above replacement. Maybe 60, though.
Well, I guess I was wrong. I guess the Red Sox should have just promoted some 33 year old who stunk at AAA, and then had the Rockies hand them a decent starter for nothing (probably the same as we paid for Stanton).
Chacon and Small are a combined 17-3, 150ish IP, sub-3.00 ERA. Small doesn't even belong on a major league roster. It's been a truly amazing run of luck for the yanks.
Small and Chacon are not good pitchers. They're not. I just get indignant.
What did you think of the game tonight?
I watch Wang, and I can see the case that he's actually a pretty good pitcher.
I dunno. His Ks are terrible. Maybe he's THE pitcher who can succeed with a K rate under 4/9 IP, but somehow I doubt. Especially considering he was thought to be done earlier in the year.
The thing that kills me about these guys is that they're succeeding despite allowing balls in play in front of a terrible defense. I was sure the bottom would fall out sooner or later, but it just never did.
The thing that kills me about these guys is that they're succeeding despite allowing balls in play in front of a terrible defense. I was sure the bottom would fall out sooner or later, but it just never did.
No justice in this world. No justice. Aaron frickin' Small.
True, but you see the same sort of thing in guys like Daniel Cabrera and Ervin Santana, both of whom actually do strike guys out, but haven't gotten nearly the results that Wango has. If Wang was doing all this with a high-4.00s ERA, it wouldn't be as ridiculous.
Darren, I know it seems obvious to just leave Papelbon in, but not many managers do that, I think it's pretty good.
As frustrating as this team has been, they're really not all that good and they've got a shot at a playoff birth. Also, it would be really nice if there's a playoff for the red sox to take a big f'ing deuce on chacon (it'd be chacon, right). I mean monstrous in the first inning, like Florida 2003 big, and have it all be for naught for the yanks.
Asians don't need strikeouts because we're inscrutable.
Or is there a playoff to determine division leader?
I hadn't realized we were 6-10 against them this year, god 8-8 would be nice and take the two losses against tampa or something.
For Letier, part of it was without a doubt the lefty factor. Ortiz is much less effective against LHPs, Damon isn't as good against LHPs, and Trot should be (but usually isn't) benched against them. In previous seasons, Manny and Nomar offset all that, but Nomar's gone and Manny had IIRC a reverse platoon split this season. Millar was good against lefties but this year's he's sucked against everyone. There's still Varitek (switch hitter who's better from the right) but that's really it, at least in '05 - and he's really fallen off lately.
Look the Red Sox have a better OPS v. lefties this year than righties. That game sucked, he struck out 8, walked 3, and gave up 1 run. The sox swung at everything. It was painful to watch, and they've had performances like that from so many pitchers. G-Ross.
1. I was making the point that Trot won't really make significantly more outs. Hence my focus on OBP.
2. I thought - and maybe I'm remembering this wrong - SLG MLE's are more fluky than OBP MLE's. This makes intuitive sense; the numerator of SLG varies much more than that of OBP, for a given number of PA's. (More variation) = (less certainty) = (need more PA's to achieve same level of certainty).
And if they're more fluky, I'm less inclined to believe the observed differences are real. It doesn't mean they're not real; it means that they're less reliable for decision-making purposes, because they're more likely not real than similar differences on OBP.
Now, that's on the objective side of the ledger. On the subjective side... I've seen for years that Trot's weak swings vs. LHP are going to keep his SLG low. But I don't have the same degree of observation on Hyzdu. I have a really small sample to draw from, and that sample is quite unremarkable.
I'm pretty sure the team OPS vs. RHP and vs. LHP are essentially equal.
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