BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: That was supposed to be hard

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1. Joel W Posted: June 17, 2011 at 02:37 PM (#3855697)

There's that thread I was looking for. The Lowrie and Buchholz injuries put a bit of a damper on it, though the downgrade from Lowrie to Scutaro/Sutton/Navarro isn't that large over a two week span, and the Buchholz injury sounds like nagging back issue more than something long term. I also liked that Clay was smart enough to say "this is throwing me off, I should probably stop."

The schedule looking forward looks pretty soft. Also, Jose Bautista's recent struggles have made Adrian Gonzalez a legit MVP candidate.

2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 17, 2011 at 02:44 PM (#3855703)

the downgrade from Lowrie to Scutaro/Sutton/Navarro isn't that large over a two week span

Well, the dude's shoulder popped out of joint. And the dude is Jed Lowrie. I'd put the over/under on his return at about a month. However, Scutaro's been exactly as good as Lowrie this year. 346/361 for Scutaro, 319/403 for Lowrie. Obviously Lowrie's been hampered by injuries, but it looks like projecting Lowrie based on an assumption that he won't be hampered by injuries is not justified.

There's a downgrade at backup infielder from Scutaro to Sutton/Navarro, but that is quite minor.

3. Dan Posted: June 17, 2011 at 07:15 PM (#3856075)

I'd like to see what Navarro can do. I think Sutton has a decent bat for a bench player, but his glove is scary at SS/2B.

4. Infinite Joost (Voxter)

Posted: June 17, 2011 at 10:23 PM (#3856337)

That was supposed to be hard

THAT'S WHAT SHE SAID!!

Yes!

5. Something Other Posted: June 19, 2011 at 07:55 AM (#3857046)

Is there a thread on Crawford going on the DL?

6. Phil Coorey. Posted: June 19, 2011 at 11:15 AM (#3857062)

Is there a thread on Crawford going on the DL?

No need (my point of view only), I'm glad he is having a break to be honest.

7. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: June 19, 2011 at 11:26 PM (#3857391)

Not too worried about Crawford going on the DL for a few weeks. As long as it is a two-week injury, I think it's an opportunity to:

1) Give Cameron some ABs against lefties;
2) Let Reddick play a little bit.

Crawford's obviously played better lately, but she still hasn't been unbelievable or anything. Since May 1st, he's been playing a lot better (.295 average with a little pop since May 1st)...but he has absolutely ZERO discipline at the plate. He has 4 walks since May 1st - he actually has more HRs (5) than BBs (4) since May 1st. Reddick and Cameron won't kill them for the next few weeks...

8. Dan Posted: June 20, 2011 at 12:33 AM (#3857405)

Once Crawford and Lowrie are back, I'd like to see Cameron's roster spot given to Yamaico Navarro or Sutton if Navarro doesn't seem ready. Having a second bench guy who can play the infield would be really nice, and Cameron is redundant with McDonald on the roster. Plus Navarro and Sutton can both play LF and RF, so you still have the option of sitting two starting OFers against tough lefties if you want to.

Assuming Lowrie goes back to starting at SS, you'd have a bench of Varitek, Scutaro, Navarro, and McDonald. That's really good as far as benches go these days.

9. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: June 20, 2011 at 03:37 AM (#3857513)

Lowrie really is Tim Naehring 2.0 at this point. Hopefully he sheds the injuries at some point.

10. Joel W Posted: June 20, 2011 at 03:50 AM (#3857517)

Since May 1st Carl Crawford has put up a line of .295/.318/.476, with a perfectly sustainable (for him) BABIP of .331. The AL average on the year is .254/.322/.395. So if you're willing to forgive April, and assume that that's a more reasonable approximation of what he's going to do at the plate, it's a significant downgrade from the past month and a half. Sure he's not walking, but if you can get on base 33% of the time the ball is in play and don't strike out too often, in this run environment that's pretty damn good.

11. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: June 20, 2011 at 03:54 AM (#3857520)

Not for the money.

12. Joel W Posted: June 20, 2011 at 04:09 AM (#3857526)

Well Steve was saying that it "won't kill them", and it won't, but it's definitely a downgrade and it's not my money. Anyhow, for the money: a .794 OPS in a .717 OPS environment from a good fielding, good baserunning left fielder is really valuable. Since May 1st he's been worth .8 fangraphs WAR. That's a 3 win player over the course of a season, and it's not "worth the money" but it's still quite good, and that's while getting neutral fielding and baserunning value which I won't project into the future, even if you project the hitting into the future.

13. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: June 20, 2011 at 07:52 PM (#3857958)

Yeah. I don't think he's bad--merely useful. I think the monetary waste offends me more than the production. If they continue to blow huge money on merely above-average players, they're even more like the Yankees than they were before.

Also, the Crawford situation might get a lot worse. The fans already think he's (their impression of) J.D. Drew the Second. I hope he's not the kind of guy to wilt under negativity.

When does Kyle Weiland get called up to start? When Miller gets hurt?

I'm a tremendous optimist today, I see...

14. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 22, 2011 at 03:50 PM (#3859513)

This is from Nick Cafardo's latest blog entry;

Well, it sure sounds as if Adrian Gonzalez is going to see some time in the outfield.

Gonzalez has been working out there and Terry Francona and his coaches will next map out the possibility of where it would best suit Gonzalez to play. Both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia don't have a huge, ominous rightfield, and he may get some time in those venues on the next 9-game interleague road trip which begins Friday.

The more I think about this, the more I hate the idea. Ortiz should be able to stay sharp getting one start per series plus a couple of pinch hitting appearances and the risk here...I mean even if it's a very very very small risk, the damage of an injury to Gonzalez far outweighs the small benefit of this manuever.

15. TomH Posted: June 22, 2011 at 04:29 PM (#3859559)

only slightly offtopic....

The NYY have played about 10 more home games than road games to date. They'll have a really tough "away" stretch coming up later this summer; 30 or 31 and only 15 at home from Aug 1 to Sep 15ish. Bethca the team HR output goes doooowwwwn.

16. Dan Posted: June 23, 2011 at 01:17 AM (#3860037)

I don't know if it's because his elbow is hurt or just because he sucks, but Lackey needs to be out of this rotation.

17. tfbg9 Posted: June 23, 2011 at 03:19 AM (#3860157)

One more stinker and he will be.

18. Dan Posted: June 25, 2011 at 02:17 AM (#3861959)

This team has now gotten 45 men on base over the last 3 games, yet only managed to score 6 runs. Incredibly frustrating to watch them right now. It's the same formula as April.

19. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: June 25, 2011 at 02:26 AM (#3861962)

I have a sinking feeling this "that was supposed to be hard" entry will soon be matched by a "that was supposed to be easy" one.

20. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 25, 2011 at 06:44 PM (#3862217)

It's the same formula as April.

They didn't do a great job of cashing in opportunities back in April, but this really understates how badly the Sox played for most of the first month of the season. They had like a 600 OPS through the first ten games or so, and only picked it up 700 by the end of the month. They were mostly just bad at hitting, and their poor hitting in the clutch wasn't any much worse than their hitting in lower leverage situations.

It's frustrating to see the team lose three games where they couldn't buy a clutch hit, but it's just three games. There's no reason at all to think clutch hitting is going to be problem going forward.

21. Dan Posted: June 26, 2011 at 01:46 AM (#3862434)

It's frustrating to see the team lose three games where they couldn't buy a clutch hit, but it's just three games. There's no reason at all to think clutch hitting is going to be problem going forward.

0-16 with RISP now in the Pirates series. I'm not suggesting that it's a skill or that it's predictive, but it's so far beyond frustrating to constantly see pop ups and groundouts any time there's a runner on second and/or third.

22. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 26, 2011 at 02:08 AM (#3862457)

The last two nights are frustrating, but a somewhat predictable offshoot of interleague play. The Sox are top heavy right now with Drew toasty (see how I integrated another ST thread?) and Crawford out so taking out Ortiz hurts.

I still think playing Gonzalez in right is a bad idea though.

23. Dan Posted: June 26, 2011 at 09:23 PM (#3862965)

Managed to salvage a win, but went 1-26 with RISP in the series with the lone hit being an infield single that didn't score a run.

Darnell McDonald left a small village on base over the course of the series.

24. Dan Posted: June 29, 2011 at 01:52 AM (#3865035)

With Lackey going tomorrow and Hamels pitching Thursday for the Phillies, it sure feels like the Sox will be lucky to win one game in Philly, especially if Thursday's lineup includes both Cameron and McDonald again.

Worley isn't a bad matchup for this lineup but the lefties and switch-hitters in the Phillies lineup are probably going to tee off on Lackey.

25. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 29, 2011 at 03:00 AM (#3865077)

Extra Bases says Gonzalez in right, Ortiz at first tomorrow.

This team is far too streaky for my liking. They are exposed on a regular basis. Seven shutouts already after just four last year.

26. Dan Posted: June 29, 2011 at 07:17 AM (#3865154)

Guessing at tomorrow's lineup:

CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
RF Gonzalez
3B Youkilis
1B Ortiz
C Saltalamacchia
LF Reddick
SS Scutaro
P Lackey

That's a damn sight better offensively than any of the lineups on this road trip, though obviously the defense will suffer a little. I'm okay with that. Dropping off from 4th to 5th from Youk to McDonald or Drew has just killed rallies all trip long, so hopefully having Ortiz in the lineup can give the lineup the depth it needs to produce some runs. I think people are freaking out way too much over Gonzalez playing the OF. I see people here and at SOSH absolutely decrying it as if Gonzalez getting hurt playing the OF is a certainty. I just don't see how playing RF is an injury risk at all. It's not as if Gonzalez is going to be playing RF so aggressively that he runs into a wall at full sprint.

27. Mattbert Posted: June 29, 2011 at 12:35 PM (#3865195)

Even at a full sprint, Gonzo should have around 3 minutes from the time he hits the warning track to throw on the brakes before hitting the wall. Narf!

28. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 29, 2011 at 12:45 PM (#3865197)

I'm not worried about him banging into a wall so much as I'm worried about some kind of muscle pull or back strain.

Look, the reality is that there is a very low likelihood of injury but the effect of a significant injury to Gonzalez is so bad for this team that I don't see the benefit of taking the risk.

29. Dan Posted: June 29, 2011 at 04:05 PM (#3865354)

Why is he any more likely to strain or pull something in the outfield than running the bases?

30. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 29, 2011 at 04:12 PM (#3865364)

Why is he any more likely to strain or pull something in the outfield than running the bases?

I totally agree. He's a 29 year old professional athlete. I think he can play nine innings in RF, and that most of the handwringing over it is overwrought.

31. Dan Posted: June 30, 2011 at 02:00 AM (#3865917)

This team is just depressing to watch at the moment. The offense just can't get anything going.

32. John DiFool2 Posted: June 30, 2011 at 12:42 PM (#3866084)

I'd recommend a wholesale swapping out of the deadwood and calling up a bunch of kids, but that isn't Theo's/Tito's modus operandi (tho of course they'll call this guy or that guy when they think he's ready).

33. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 30, 2011 at 01:12 PM (#3866091)

I'd recommend a wholesale swapping out of the deadwood and calling up a bunch of kids

The problem is what kids are we calling up? Reddick for Drew is a reasonable argument (though I'm not sold on Reddick but at this point give it a whirl) but after that the positions where an upgrade might feasibly exist (shortstop, catcher, left field) there are no options. The truth is that this is fundamentally the same group that scored about eleventy billion runs a week and a half ago and waiting it out is probably going to be the right call. They are hitting .120 w/RISP since last Tuesday.

The bigger issue in my mind is that this team is flawed. This has been the streakiest team I can recall. When they play poorly, they don't seem to have the ability to make anything happen. This is a team on a 92 win pace and that feels about right which is frustrating given what we were expecting.

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