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Look, I'm probablly the most pessimistic of anyone here on Lowrie's future potential, but at this point it would be unconscionable not to have him in the lineup.
In other news....who is this Matsuzaka guy? Anybody have a scouting report on him?
This season, I haven't seen it - well, not yet, at least. He took a called third strike against the Yankees, but IIRC it was a good pitch. I don't know if he's getting more respect from the ump, or if he's being less selective, or what. Either way, me likey.
My only other real reservation with Lowrie is his health, not just "is he healthy enough to play?" but "will he break down if he plays regularly?" I have no reason to believe the latter - but it's not entirely refutable, either. I'd just skip that one, note that he's healthy today, and find a way to get him in the game.
1. There is some self-fulfilling prophecy at work here. If you play Lowrie against lefties since he is better against them than Scutaro you put Scutaro in a position where he loses at bats with the platoon advantage. This is going to make Lowrie look better than Scutaro by a degree that is inaccurate.
2. I'm not sold on his defense. I don't think Lowrie is a poor defensive player but rather a limited one. I don't like his range at all, I think Scutaro at the very least should be used in a defensive replacement role.
3. Not to revisit a lot of shouting matches but until Lowrie stays healthy for six months and gets 500+ Plate Appearances I think the expectation should be that he can't. That doesn't mean he doesn't deserve the shot but I think a couple of days off a week is not the worst idea and Sctuaro is a pretty good player.
Just or what it's worth the numbers since 2008;
Scutaro - .274/.350/.383
Lowrie - .263/.344/.436
Advantage Lowrie but not to a dramatic degree. The question is how much faith are we willing to put in recent performance. I think there are some valid reasons to believe Lowrie's post-2009 performances are more in line with his ability than his pre-2010 performances. I think he deserves to be the guy but this feels a bit like Ellsbury/Crisp in 2008 where Ellsbury clearly had the job early on but the natural adjustments of a young player playing everyday for the first time will likely create a spell where the veteran is the way to go.
This rambled a lot more than I meant it to.
Scutaro - .274/.350/.383
Lowrie - .263/.344/.436
I don't think it's worth very much when it includes a bunch of PAs of Lowrie playing with a broken wrist and also Scutaro's career year.
Lowrie of course had a minor league career before his Major League career and 2008 ZIPS projected him as .253/.326/.406 as a 24 year old. ZIPS isn't perfect but that's almost exactly what he put up (.258/.339/.400).
If you don't include those types, than no one is injury prone except those pitchers whose elbows or shoulders keep giving way.
I don't think anyone is calling Lowrie injury prone but until the guy can play six months of baseball without actually missing a chunk of time it seems like a fair question to ask.
I think there is a pretty high likelihood that the last year of baseball is a "career year" for Lowrie unless you think he is a true talent .930 OPS guy which I think even his mom would agree is unlikely. Scutaro's 2010 season was not appreciably worse than his 2008/2009 combined seasons so I think, unless Scutaro has declined which is possible, it's a pretty good estimate of what he'll do.
I'm not his mom, but I agree with that. On the other hand, if I squint a bit he sure looks a lot like an .800+ OPS-ish hitter who's peaking. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think Scutaro--a .725 OPS-ish hitter most likely on the gentle decline--is the kind of guy who should prevent you from finding out. I like Scoots a lot; he's solid. But his ceiling can't be anywhere near Lowrie's at this stage.
Let's see if he stays healthy, they can afford to rest Scutaro or use him against Lefties - or maybe trade him later in the season to a team that could really use him - there will be heaps. Jed is killing it right now - it's the only highlight of the season so far.
And as far as the glove goes, I just did a quick check of several defensive metrics, and over his career they all agree that he's been above average. He also had that long errorless streak in '08, FWIW.
His 2006 season was described, at the time, as "injury-plagued".
In 2007 he came on strong and was promoted quickly. He went to the AFL after the season, where he missed time due to a hand injury.
In 2008 he played most of the season with a wrist injury he'd suffered in May.
In 2009 he was on the DL twice, from 4/13 to 7/8, and again from 8/8 to 9/6.
In 2010 he was on the DL from 3/26 to 7/21.
Sure, if you dismiss his TWO stints on the 60-day DL in five professional seasons, plus the near-full season he played hurt, plus the month he missed in between the DL stints, he's the image of perfect health. Except for his injury-plagued 2006. And the hand injury in 2007.
*gets plunked i the ribs with a fastball from Josh Beckett*
Yeah, but BESIDES THAT...
I would have loved to have seen Lowrie take some OF reps in ST, even just so he could play there in an emergency (who is the emergency OF, BTW?), but at this point there's no way either Lowrie or Scutaro is going to be put in the OF unless there's some kind of ejection/injury black hole game... What happened with Youkilis in LF that day at Yankee Stadium has, I think, permanently affected how Francona would handle situations like that, no matter how much someone was raking at the plate.
It doesn't have anything to do with who should be playing shortstop right now, though. There's lots of evidence that Lowrie's better than Scutaro and basically no evidence that Scutaro is better than Lowrie.After today, Lowrie's up to .268/.348/.445. In my book, that's a dramatic difference, especially when one guy's 27 and the other's 35.
For such a SABR-minded crowd the term 'injury-prone' sure is used a lot. Think. It means nothing! Again...unless the guy is Rocco Baldelli, or has "Something" wrong with him like Mauer (Have they even done an MRI yet?) or has weak leg-ligaments like I did (Took me some 25 years to discover it was related to an MS-like disorder), then saying Jed is 'injury-prone' is the same as saying he's 'unlucky'.
But hey...maybe the FO knows something we don't. Maybe he does have weak ligaments.
Youk has played some 3 more games than JD Drew has over the course of JD's Red Sox career. Is there any hesitation in playing Youk?
Personally, I think Jed is a robot like in the Twilight Zone. He always has that goofy grin. I haven't heard peep one about his playing time or his 'injury-proneishnessishness" I know if I were in his shoes I'd have a hard time Shutting TFU.
Scutaro IS a utility player. If it weren't for his one big (unrepeatable) season in Toronto, and the fact that the Sox needed a shortstop so badly last year, he'd have never been seen as anything more.
Whatever Lowrie's eventual upside is compared to Scutaro, does anyone want Marco starting at SS tonight?
Some people ARE 'unlucky' when it comes to injuries. I get sick once every other year - I consider that pretty lucky - whereas a co-worker of mine would always have some random illness/stomach issue/head problem/etc. She doesn't do anything to be unhealthy, if you compared the two of us she has the healthier diet and doesn't really drink, she just has a propensity to illness. Similar thing with a buddy I had growing up, the guy is a fitness freak but would always find a way to injure himself - broken bones, dislocated fingers, frost-bite from icing, constant sprained ankles, black eyes from teammates' elbows, concussions. If you look at the illnesses or injuries separately there isn't much to link them, but take a step back and look at the whole picture (as vi did in #16) and you do notice a trend of fluky, unlucky injuries.
FWIW, probably the best thing they did to preserve Lowrie's health was to let Beltre go. Dude would've steamrolled Lowrie by now. ;-)
Nick Johnson wishes that were true. Of course, Nick was doubly cursed, also being a "slow healer".
I think the Treder experiment (now several years ago) proved that it does not mean nothing. It may not be extremely predictive, but at the extremes there is information there.
Maybe the predictive part is that the mono caused him to miss so many months, instead of weeks.
I know I helped derail this thread, but let's get back to how awesome he has been, and back to hoping his PT increases a ton. I, for one, welcome our new snaggly-toothed shortstop overlord!
Like any label (defensive rep, good/bad clubhouse guy, hard worker, etc) it probablly gets tossed around too often and onto people who may not deserve it, but to think that some people arent more prone to injuries is pretty naive.
Now on Lowrie, wrist/hand injuries are always pretty dicy, but he sure showed what appeared to be lingering effects, lengthy recoveries, and reinjury for a significant portion of his career so far. I dont think its enough to say that Lowrie will always be injury prone but its certainly not a good sign.
I'm more pessimistic because I dont think he can play good enough D to stick at SS. And theres really no other place for him on this roster this year. So really you've got a super sub that wont embarrass you at SS, and wont embarrass you with the bat when he has to fill in at the other IF spots. Its a nice piece, but not one to get really excited about. I mean maybe if he hits well enough, he can slot in at 3B and send Youk to DH, but his bat doesnt really get me excited at 3B.
Discounting his stats this year completly (why I dont know), and going off just last year, he would have been about the third best 3B in MLB over the course of a year offensively.
What's a N**** gotta do round here?
There's every reason to be cautious and none to rush, so I think the Sox will wait a couple months -- see how Lowrie holds up, what develops on the farm, what Scutaro's got left and if they can safely flip him for a live arm in July, go for it.
Put up numbers over something greater than a third of a season. Do you really think he's a true .900 OPS guy? If so that's great but that seems pretty unlikely to me.
Hanley put up an .853 last year. Stephen Drew in third place put up an .810....so does it really matter if he's a true .900?
1. Can he hit righties? He has hit them well so far this year and last year. If the last year is a true reflection of his ability then that is good news indeed.
2. Can he field shortstop sufficiently? I think his career line of a .793 OPS is about in line with what can be expected of him. If he is even modestly competent defensively then that becomes quite good. If he has to move off shortstop his bat at that level becomes pretty mediocre anywhere else he might play.
Obviously he should get the lion's share of the starts right now but I think there should be some skepticism around him. This is not a proven player by any stretch of the imagination.
You're a smart guy but this is a stupid argument (at least Hanley is). Do you honestly think he is remotely comparable to Hanley Ramirez? Ramirez is much faster and is a considerably better hitter.
What do you think Lowrie is? You seem content to dismiss the first two years (shortened that they were) and his minor league track record. Maybe he has become a superior player to what he was but that seems a bit fanboyish.
Unless they have some glaring hole at that point or are 15 games out of the playoffs, why would they trade Scutaro in July? He seems like a perfect backup for this team if contending. Trading him would make no sense to me.
Rk Player OPS BA OBP SLG PA1 Troy Tulowitzki .956 .307 .384 .572 1230
2 Hanley Ramirez .896 .319 .393 .503 1324
3 Robinson Cano .895 .319 .365 .531 1429
4 Chase Utley .874 .279 .393 .481 1198
5 Jed Lowrie .845 .278 .356 .489 306
6 Dustin Pedroia .836 .294 .372 .464 1131
7 Rickie Weeks .835 .269 .360 .475 990
8 Dan Uggla .834 .262 .355 .479 1410
9 Ben Zobrist .812 .262 .369 .443 1317
10 Ian Kinsler .809 .263 .350 .459 1170
11 Martin Prado .803 .303 .348 .456 1228
12 Neil Walker .800 .288 .348 .452 580
13 Brian Roberts .789 .281 .351 .437 1044
14 Kelly Johnson .788 .257 .341 .448 1081
15 Starlin Castro .786 .315 .358 .429 580
16 Stephen Drew .783 .271 .338 .445 1270
17 Derek Jeter .780 .299 .370 .410 1516
18 Maicer Izturis .774 .293 .351 .422 741
19 Brandon Phillips .772 .278 .333 .439 1386
20 Ryan Roberts .768 .271 .350 .418 457
21 Jason Bartlett .766 .284 .354 .412 1150
22 Jeff Baker .764 .285 .337 .427 499
Is Lowrie a .900 OPS hitter?
Is he really a.845 OPS hitter?
What about Scutaro, 2009-2011 he's at .748: .276/.354/.394
Lowrie for his MLB career is at .793, Scutaro at .719
Scutaro is 35, Lowrie is 27, frankly the idea that Scutaro should play over Lowrie is nuts- not that I'd get rid of Scutaro, Lowrie seems fragile to me, it seems to me that whenever someone claims that some one's injury history is flukish - bad luck and has no predictive value- they're usually wrong- I remember years ago one primate kept insisting that JD Drew was not injury prone, that the time he'd missed in Stl was due to LaRussa, that his injuries in 2003 & 2005 were unrelated... yada yada yada.
Some guys just break and tear easier than others, some guys heal more slowly, not everyone has the same immune system. One guy gets hit by a bad bounce in the finger and his finger swells up and he can't grip a bat properly for days (or weeks) - another guy- the same hop has no effect on performance
His minor league track record is fragmented, but was quite good. I think his minor league stats are comparable to Pedroia. John Sickels gave Jed Lowrie a A- as a prospect, which he got flack on at the time. I think his major league hitting in the long run will be similar to Pedroia.
A team with playoff aspirations should not be getting worse and more inexperienced just to save a couple million (even at a backup spot). I guess if they had a guy who could play as well, and play 2B and 3B and SS, and for whom inexperience wouldn't manifest itself, they should look at trade options. But I would much rather Scutaro for depth down the stretch and in the playoffs than the Eric Pattersons of the world, even if he is overpaid for a few months.
i'm right in line with this. From my limited vantage point, I'm not impressed with him as a defensive SS.
I love the idea of Lowrie as an occasional starter at SS and a backup for all other IFs. I'm just scared that his defense will drag if he's left to be your every day SS. Obviously if he hits anywhere north of an .800 OPS it would be dumb not to find out what you've got defensively.
Or, given much of the source of debate in the thread, he hits an actual wall.
I don't really know how the scale works for wOBA, but that seems like Scutaro projects to be a slightly better hitter. And I know he's just an example, but Patterson's infield experience is only at 2B. Therefore Scutaro is a much better fit in the field given the health issues of Youkilis and Lowrie.
Just sayin...
He does now. Similar looking upper cut swing, good power for a middle infielder, iffy defensively. I can see it.
Lowrie SS
Pedroia 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Youkilis 3B
Ortiz DH
Cameron RF
Crawford LF
Saltalamacchia C
McDonald CF
I don't get why McDonald is in CF with Cameron in RF. McDonald is not a CFer; Cameron has been a gold glove caliber CF in the recent past and has looked decent out there this year (unlike last season). Also not too happy to see Salty starting against a LHP, but I guess Francona felt he needed to get him some action, esp if he's now not going to catch either Daisuke or Beckett.
My guess would be arm strength. Cameron doesn't exactly have a cannon, but I think his is a little better than McDonald's. There's a lot of extra foul territory to cover in Oakland, and with Crawford and Cameron in the corners, CF defense isn't as critical.
Mike Cameron is easily at the top of my "He's giving me the shits list"
That's not really fair to Scutaro. From 2005 to 2010, he was essentially an average or better player. The fact that he didn't get to play fulltime in those years shouldn't be held against him. That was the great thing about his Sox contract. They were getting at least an average player for cheap and he was finally getting paid.
I'd still make Lowrie the starter mainly, but there's no reason you couldn't get also get Scutaro 80+ starts.
Dear John,
Until last night you have sucked, sucked, sucked so far this season. Your manager was trying to get you to have some confidence in yourself and to prevent you from going to your John Lackey Face, so he took you out on a high note. Please shut your pie hole and pitch better and you'll get the longer leash. Right now, you're lucky you're not in the bullpen.
Sincerely,
Textbook Editor
Did NESN have a better replay angle on the balk than the A's broadcast did? That's the one they used for the MLB.com highlights and it was either a centerfield angle or a home plate angle, neither one providing any clarity.
Don't see it.
Lowrie is only 8 months younger than Pedrioia.
at age 21 he hit .328/.429/.448- in the NY Penn League (short season lo-a)
at age 22 he hit .262/.352/.374 in the Carolina League
at age 23 he hit .298/.393/.503 between AA and AAA (mostly AAA)
at age 24 he hit .268/.359/.434 in a 1/3 of a year at AAA
his career Minor league numbers are .284/.380/.445, he's at .268/.350/.458 in about a full year in AAA
Pedroia at 20, hit .357/.435/.535 between the Sallie League and the FSL (only 42 games)- think about that- the Sox started Pedroia out at 20 in a higher league than they did Lowrie at 21: who did they regard more highly at th time they drafted them?
At 21 Pedroia hit .293/.385/.452 between AA and AAA- at the same age Lowrie was in the NYPenn League
At 22 Pedroia hit .305/.384/.426 in the IL- same age Lowrie was scuffling in the Carolina League.
At 23 Pedroia was hitting .317/.380/.442 in the Show- Lowrie was doing well- in AA
Pedroia's career minor league numbers are .307/.392/.452- superficially close to Lowrie- but Pedroia did it at younger ages and in tougher leagues- he had 50% more PAs at AAA than Lowrie, Lowrie had some 290 PAs in the NYPEnn League- lower then any league Pedroia played in.
Justin Turner* is 7 months younger than Lowrie, Turner's career minor league line is .309/.373/.443, and that includes 928 AAA PAs where he's hit .307/.368/.440
As a hitter Lowrie is somewhere in between Turner and Pedroia
Drew RF
Pedroia 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Youkilis DH
Lowrie 3B
Scutaro SS
Crawford LF
Varitek C
Ellsbury CF
I'm not in love with it, but I looked at Gonzalez's career splits and he has a very minor reverse split over his career so I suppose I can live with it. And after how bad Cameron and McDonald looked last night I don't really want to see either of them again today anyway. Hopefully Buchholz has his #### together today, because I don't think the Sox are getting more than 2 or 3 runs today, if they can even muster that.
1: I was responding to someone who said that "I think his minor league stats are comparable to Pedroia." and "I think his major league hitting in the long run will be similar to Pedroia."
2: I said BETWEEN Turner and Pedroia.
You know like:
Pedroia
Lowrie
Turner
which, hey, ZiPS agrees:
Pedroia: .300/.370/.471
Lowrie: .252/.333/.422
Turner: .267/.320/.377
That makes no sense considering 1) Cameron took a step right in front of Suzuki that looked like clear interference, 2) the homeplate umpire looked like he called interference immediately and appeared to signal that the ball was dead, 3) the 2B umpire didn't actually make a call, instead looking back to the homeplate umpire, 4) Ellsbury was safe at 2B, and 5) the Sox coach came out to argue with the homeplate ump, who told him it was interference.
Yes, I agree with all of these things. But the crew chief explained in this Boston Globe article:
In as much as you could tell from the camera angle they had, it looked pretty darn different to me. He practically stopped in the middle of his motion and still stepped toward home more than first.
Maybe he wasn't sure if it was ball four in which case he wouldn't call the runner out. Bizarre though for him to stand there and make no call.
Long may it be part of the game.
Nah. He's still not quite right but he did fine today. And he wasn't even getting calls on ANYTHING. The umpire was a complete joke.
Buchholz will be fine.
We don' have a Sox News Thread (we ought to, no?) So I post this Projo item here:
PAWTUCKET -- Ryan Kalish left Thursday's game with an apparent injury after he made a diving catch in center field in the second inning.
Kalish dove to his left to catch a sinking line drive off the bat of Michael Aubrey, and he appeared to jam his shoulder or wrist when he braced himself for his impact. He walked slowly off the field with a trainer holding onto his left arm.
The outfielder played in 53 games for the Red Sox last season and is widely expected to be preparing to slide into an everyday role in the major leagues in 2012. He missed the second half of the 2007 season when he broke the hamate bone in his right hand, an injury that sapped his power at the plate in 2008, too.
Hope its minor. Wrist injuries can be really really bad for development.
If all the balls in this plot that are IN THE ZONE were called strikes, would you still be saying this? By my count there are easily FOURTEEN pitches in the strike zone that were called balls. That is only counting pitches that are inside or touching the box denoting the zone. What the #### was Buchholz supposed to do with that umpiring? Just groove pitches right down the middle? Or throw good pitches and pray the umpire makes a call?
I'm looking forward to someone coming in and jumping on me for ######## about the umpiring once this appears on the Hot Topics sidebar, but this level of incompetence from an umpire is ridiculous. Mike DiMuro has no business behind the plate calling balls and strikes.
It doesn't change the fact that Buchholz has rather poor control. For a guy who is a low K/groundball pitcher a walk rate that is consistently above average seems like a bad combination. I think his stuff is good enough that he is going to be a low-BABIP guy and that will make him useful on a regular basis. That's not bad but it limits his ceiling in my opinion.
Beats the crap out of me. I think from what I've seen that he nibbles and screws around a bit too much out there. Typical problem of a guy (particularly a young guy) with a wide array of pitches he can't come back with the same pitch twice to get people out. I don't want to see him limit his arsenal because I think it is one of his strength but too often it seems like he lets hitters back into an at bat by missing with off speed stuff when his fastball, particularly ahead in the count, seems to be a weapon that should be sufficient.
This is why I don't find thte Carmona comparison very useful. There's a limit to how effective you can be throwing just a sinker. There's no real limit on a guy with Buchholz' arsenal.
It looks like Chatwood had about 10 pitches in the zone called balls as well.
Umpiring is getting to be so bad that it is actively lowering my enjoyment of watching ballgames.
Chatwood's plot suggests bad umpiring, not a smaller zone - there were 10 pitches in the zone called balls and 11 outside of it called strikes. Beckett is 13 to 8 - still not too much suggesting the ump was consciously trying to tighten the k-zone.
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