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I think it's worth dividing up the pitching and the hitting. Despite all the injuries, the Sox have a 110 OPS+ as a team. I don't think there's really much to complain about on offense, even after this mini-slump. Cherington did a good job acquiring depth talent, and it's kept the offense afloat even through some nasty injury luck.
The pitching has been terrible, in ways that I just don't see as likely to repeat. (If the pitching is this bad, or even close to this bad, the Sox are going to miss the playoffs.) Right now, the ERA leaders in the rotation are Daniel Bard at 4.38 and Josh Beckett at 4.45.
Here's one way of getting at the problem. The 2011 Red Sox starters had a 4.49 ERA. If the 2012 Red Sox had a 4.49 starter ERA - if they'd just been as good as the 2012 rotation that cost the club the playoffs - they'd probably have two more wins than they've got right now, and they'd be sitting at .500.
The club doesn't have much margin for error, because they aren't a 95-win roster. But I think it's still more likely that they're a high-80s win club than that they're a bad team with egregiously poor starting pitching.
Keep trotting him out there tho...
Heh. Because "lead-awful" just wasn't clever enough.
None of the three are currently BOTH healthy and effective.
Cook to the DL in a corresponding move.
If the Red Sox staff were just a step better than the 2011 rotation, they'd be at .500 or maybe a game above, and no one would be worried. They don't need to be world-beaters for this team to win.
That's what she said.
Ross makes Manny look like the Bill Mazeroski of left field. He has been unbelievably bad in the field (including today jumping for a ball he should have played off the wall).
Edit: Cody Ross exposes a flaw in the BB-REF dWAR calculation, I think. He's at 0.0 WAR. That cannot be right. In the limited number of chances he has ###### up so many playable balls. He's not merely neutral. He's had a net negative effect on the defense.
Blow 9-1 lead to Yanks
...and this.
I'm so glad my team is the most embarrassing team in baseball. SO glad my team has been providing yuks for the MLB Network and the nation since September 1st.
Good, fire him. THe Sox needed to get three more outs then try and get something off Davis there. You can't give the game away like that.
And I noted it in the game thread, it kills me that Dale, Dan, MCoA and everyone else here is more pissed off about this shitshow than the players are.
I'm confident the Os will be fighting for 4th and the Sox will be fighting for a wild card by September.
It was fun chattering as always.
I think the word should be spelled lead-offal.
Nah, this team isn't as good as people thought they were. The injuries, though, are the reason why there's a good chance they finish sub-500.
I have to say, though, it's frustrating to see them do things like bring up Cooke and Miller, bat Punto leadoff, etc. There's no urgency--I thought that was supposed to change.
Fire Valentine, though? Please, stop.
As for Valentine: he was hired to come in and change the losing atmosphere, and has failed spectacularly, while also appearing rusty from his years out of the game, alienating his players, and just generally looking less than competent. I have no issue with them handing him a pink slip.
Maybe so, but for now this is what makes baseball such a great sport: Team ERA+ through yesterday:
Nats 164
O's 147
Yanks 99
Red Sox 78
Throw in Jeter's 169 OPS+ and Pujols' 46, and I'm ready for the ####### funny farm.
1) Rotates four outfielders named McDonald, Sweeney, Ross, and Byrd; and
2) Has a rotation with five guys who ERA+, at the moment, are 91, 94, 48, 81, and 96;
3) Has a closer with an ERA+ of 58;
you're not going to win more than half your games...things will get better.
When they start playing teams like the O's or A's right? At home at least?
18-37.
Isn't making sure the players are playing to their potential and not playing with their heads up their asses part of the manager's job? Or does that argument only work after disappointing Septembers?
(BTW I'm not actually in favor of firing Valentine, at least not yet. But he, like the rest of the team, has sucked so far.)
1. Call up Linares and put him in center.
2. Pick one; send down or disable Buchholz. He's either hurt or sucks and the Sox have to figure out which and make the appropriate move.
3. Put Aceves in the rotation. It's where he wants to be and frankly the bullpen is one of the few parts of the team that is getting the job done. If my math is right their group ERA is 1.01 since the Yankee game (not counting innings pitched by outfielders).
4. New lineup;
Sweeney
Pedroia
Ortiz
Gonzalez
Aviles
Middlebrooks
Saltalamacchia
Ross
Linares
I don't know that this will have any impact but there is a "do something" aspect to this right now that has to happen.
5. Fire Valentine, Bring back Tito (OK, probably not going to happen but if this keeps up I'm going a full karlmagnus on Tito).
And yes, Tito is on the way to joining Dan Duquette on my list of Great Lost Leaders. Pity they didn't coincide.
No point Duke hiring him in Baltimore though as Showalter is another of my faves (he had the decency to not win with the Yankees in '95!)
I wish being right about this team being incredibly overrated felt better. I am starting to wonder if we're looking at a team that's merely on its way to a disappointing season or one that's going to be spending multiple years in the wilderness before things start to come back around.
Your Depends Adult Underwear have collectively malfunctioned. The urine is pouring straight out onto the floor and it's ankle deep around here.
Sincerely,
Depends Technical Support and Sales
Thank you, do they come with the complimentary rose-tinted glasses?
I skipped the pants pissing and went straight to taking a massive sloppy crap in my drawers. I felt it much more apropos for the current situation.
If the Sox want to upgrade the club, they need to trade prospects for talent.
(Also, everyone freaking out about Ross is being silly. He's been fine, even with a couple misplays, and he projects to be fine, and he'll continue to be fine.)
I don't think he's just in some defensive slump. He really is not good in the field. I'm not freaking out about the team, but I don't think that Ross is good enough in the field to warrant everyday play. He's nearing double digits in messed up plays through only 27 games. Manny never looked as bad as the defensive stats say he was, and Ross doesn't look as good.
How many runs is each out saved worth? And when does his bad play become too much to sustain?
The problem in the outfield is that the Sox are getting 12-15 plate appearances a day from these guys rather than 4-5. The loss of Ellsbury and Crawford is a killer.
I guess it's possible that Linares is actually good, and I shouldn't dismiss him, but I think the dismissal of Byrd looks premature.
The club's batting numbers are still perfectly fine, especially given the injuries they've faced. The bullpen is now sitting at about league average, which is a bit better than they projected, and really is all you could ask for given that no one there is making more than $1-2M. The rotation has been utterly awful, and if they just pitch up to projections, this is a contending club. I don't really know what can be done, other than waiting for the pitchers to pitch good.
-35 runs bad? That's his UZR/150 for 2006. That's just insane. Total Zone has him at a much more reasonable -18. I'm not saying he was good, at all. He just wasn't "worst of all time" bad. On the other hand, Ross does not look average in the field. His bat has been fine. For what it's worth, UZR/150 has Ross at -9.1 so far this year after -8.1 last year for the Giants.
Also, the loss of Crawford is not a loss. This LF/RF combo is still a net positive gain over last year's bunch. Last year was -0.8 BB-REF WAR. This year so far it's 1.4 WAR.
Edited: removed word for clarity.
Yup, had this same thought last night. I don't mind a year or two in the wilderness if there is a plan and youth coming up. For now, I'm clinging to the thought that at least the Red Sox' time in the wilderness will be quicker/faster than the Phillies' will be... (I hope)
I agree though I still want to see Linares but that's more fanboy than logic.
I think Manny was a mess out there. The best thing about going to lots of games is you can watch defense in a way that TV doesn't allow. Manny was very bad out there, I'll never be convinced otherwise. If you put up a string of 1.000 OPS seasons you can be that bad but any idea that he wasn't a bad defensive outfielder is something I'm always going to disagree with.
I think a healthy Crawford paired with a Ross/Sweeney platoon in right would be superior to Ross in LF/Sweeney in RF this year. I didn't (and still don't) expect Crawford to repeat 2011 in any phase of the game. That -0.8 from last year is largely based on J.D. Drew (-1.0) not Crawford who was solidly replacement level (wheeee!!!).
Of course Manny was a mess. The -18 TotalZone rating reflects that. -35 UZR/150 reflects something else that bears no relationship to reality.
Well, at this point, "healthy" Crawford in 2012 is just wishing. Apparently the plasma injection is not working (per Rotoworld). He was apparently not injured last season and sucked. The wrist only flared up as a problem at the end of the season. At least those were the reports. So I don't know what to expect from a healthy Crawford. All I know is that I've seen enough of Ross in the OF. He's not suited to RF in Fenway and has looked pretty miserable in LF.
I'm not spending time trying to determine precision with defensive numbers, if the -35 UZR/150 reflects that he was the worst LF in baseball, I'm fine with that.
I'm comfortable expecting a healthy Carl Crawford to do something relatively similar to what he's done in his whole career. I have no reason to believe he just has completely lost it at age 29. Maybe he has, but I'll assume he hasn't.
Fine. I'm putting Ross in the worst LF in baseball category too. He has been brutal out there. And one thing that you miss watching a lot of games in person are replays that show outfielders blowing plays they should easily have made like yesterday's idiotic leap at the ball at the wall. He's not making good decisions or taking good routes.
I don't know anymore. Upthread I made some comment about Manny and Bill Mazeroski. It doesn't matter as long as we agree that Ross sucks (= "is disappointing") defensively. Offense has been fine, as you say.
If this act wasn't getting so silly I'd have to say it was ignorant.
Right now the bullpen looks fine. Who would you replace? The bullpen in may (35 IP, not including tonight I think) has a 1.78 ERA. And how do you open a roster spot for them?
If Crawford last year was replacement level (which is below average), Ross will most certainly be below that.
Sincerity or senility?
I agree with you that the bullpen has been outstanding lately - I literally meant Tazawa for one day, to provide lots of innings if Doubront couldn't get out of the third or something. Buchholz has options - I would've sent him down for whatever the minimum is (48 hrs?) to let Tazawa be up in Boston...but I wouldn't replace anybody in the bullpen on a permanent basis...
Posting this from the Kiss Cam thread because it's interesting. Why were Beckett and Bard in the bullpen last night? Were they the emergency plan? Beckett is usually in the dugout on his non-start days.
I'm going to guess that he meant dugout and not bullpen.
Perhaps LL and/or Cherington didn't have this expectation of Valentine and aren't as disappointed as I am, but to me he's just not been the manager I thought we were getting.
That's right, my bad.
It was just the way Beckett did it, that was hilarious. One, I've never seen Beckett be the slightest bit humorous except to be very sardonic. (Ala' "They gave a friend of mine a free ticket,I don't give a ####\"-2007 ALCS)....and he didn't try and stick his tongue down Bard's throat, he just pursed his lips ever so slightly and moved in.
I was more flipped out about letting Byrd bat then McDonald. Byrd shouldn't be allowed on the field ever again in a Sox uniform.
Youk in LF is a complete no-go.
I think we worry about that when it happens. If it happens.
If you hit for Byrd, then Yost can bring in a lefty. McDonald was the first hitter faced by Herrera, so he'd have had to face Sweeney if Bobby had sent him in to PH.
Seems like a bad idea for either of them - Youkilis seems like he might have a nervous breakdown if he had to play the OF again, and Middlebrooks is still adjusting to major league pitching - it seems unfair to ask him to learn a new position too. Still, if Middlebrooks continues hitting like an insane person, it's hard to take his bat out of the lineup. They'll probably give Youkilis a lot of time to get healthy, and Middlebrooks will eventually have a couple 0-4, 2 Ks days in a row, and he'll get sent back down.
Let's not get too excited that WMB will continue to hit like Babe Ruth (or better, like Kevin Maas's first 92 at bats). He has exactly 21 AB. When Youks comes back, WMB will probably go back to Pawtucket. He'll continue to get regular at-bats, which is what he needs to continue his development. They're not gonna throw him into a new position in the majors.
To put this into perspective, he's on a 122 HR, 324 H, 203 K pace for the season. It will not continue. He's also made two horrible throws to first in 4 games. I think his early success is good, but it's WAY TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT PUTTING HIM AT 3B PERMANENTLY RIGHT NOW. ;) AND HE'S NOT GONNA PLAY LEFT, EITHER.
Edited: for clarity, and added more shouting for good measure.
By ZiPS, he wasn't projected to outhit any of those guys. Toss in a position switch at the big leagues, and that's probably not a recipe for success.
Then we are in agreement!
FWIW Here are some Fenway tix for May 25th I'll be selling in case you know someone who may be interested.
2 tix together in row 10 of section 27 at 3rd base in grandstand. Nice seats. $130/pr
2 Standing room tix on green monster same game, May 25th Friday night. $130/pr
Thanks!
Pete
I guess we can pretend that it wasn't the hitting that made you think of it in the first place. Let's say it was the amazing defensive show he's put on (2 very wild throws!). I just don't know why this would occur as a good idea. AND ONCE AGAIN, if you think WMB/LF/3B/Youkils is the solution, then you don't understand the problem. If you think Ross, Byrd, McDLT are the problem, then you don't understand the problem.
To paraphrase Bill Clinton: It's the pitching, stupid.
Also: Dan, I don't think you're stupid. I like you, in fact. Don't take the "stupid" as referring to you. I mean it in the sense implied by Clinton, retrofitted to the entire Red Sox nation.
Is that what standing room goes for on the Monster these days? I paid $25 in 2004 I think. Someone wants people to pay $65 for the privilege of standing for 3 to 4 hours?
If you buy a pair of monster SRO's from the Sox via web, it would cost about $40-$45 per ticket after they get you with the fees. For the IF GS, it would be $63 per ticket after the fees. If you got them straight from the box office, the costs are $35 and $55, respectively.
Michael Silverman's twitter:
Well the Red Sox apparently don't find the idea as ridiculous as you do.
Obviously Middlebrooks hasn't shown enough in MLB or AAA to commit to him fulltime or anything crazy like that, but I think he's earned a shot at everyday ABs until he shows he can't do it. The stuff on places like SOSH talking about dumping Youkilis are ridiculous, of course, but I think it'd be a mistake not to give Middlebrooks a real shot now, hence trying him in LF to get both he and Youkilis into the lineup when the latter comes off the DL.
I just don't know what to say anymore. This place has become weird. And wrong. And not fun.
(Thank you.)
Look, if Buchholz is going to suck all year, and Lester/Beckett alternate good/awful starts, we're simply not going to do a whole lot on the pitching side of the ledger, unless Bard/Dubront really go nuts for the next 4.5 months. There are no obvious answers on the pitching side that I can see happening before the trade deadline (aside from--maybe--the return of Dice-K and other hurt pitchers), so all I feel like we're left with is just shrugging and hoping for better results/a run a good luck.
This year doesn't feel like fun because last year ended so awfully and now after a bad 1st month we're 2 months into watching what seems like an average team. I haven't felt the Red Sox had this many holes in the roster since maybe 2002/early 2003. I just wish I knew what the overall plan was. Part of me hopes it's "play the kids" at this rate, simply because that would be fun to watch. Watching a 81-81 team isn't really inherently fun, but you can certainly find fun things to watch to make time pass more pleasurably while lamenting the 81-81ness of your favorite team.
Has there ever been a team that has played as badly as the Red Sox have since 09/01/11: 19-37, either in-season or between two seasons as the Sox have, that _didn't_ , ya' know, subsequently, simply suck?
I disagree with this. Look, I'm not disputing that the offense has been good enough to win more games than they have but at some point you have to deal with the pitching issue. The optimal way of doing that is to have the pitchers (esp. Buchholz and Lester) stop trying to pitch with their heads shoved up their asses, that's a good step. Failing that the other way is to maximize the offense and try to win a bunch of 9-8 games. It's not ideal but given the current roster construction I think it's the best short term plan. The problem here is that these losses matter. If the Sox keep losing by the time Lester (definitely) and Buchholz (hopefully) stop sucking we will be too far back for it to matter.
That the pitching sucks doesn't mean the Sox should ignore other problems.
Yes to this. The point is to score more runs than the other team, whether it's 9-8 or 1-0. I think most of us prefer 5-3 or something close, with a great offense and great pitching/defense, but who really cares how they get there? That Pedroia, Gonzalez, and Ortiz are excellent hitters shouldn't preclude the team from seeking better bats elsewhere if they're available.
Their expected W/L is now 14-15. Increase them to a 1000 run offense and it's 15-14 (or 16-13 if you round up). Increase to a 1100 run offense and its 17-12. Much better. But to get there you need 112 to 212 extra runs of offense over the course of the season. WMB over Ross right now adds 0, exactly zero, to the expected win total. That's because he projects to provide less offense than the current players on the roster. So, unless you have actual suggestions of people who would add more offense than the current crew, you're not talking about "optimizing the offense." You're dreaming. And as we all know, teams don't always conform exactly to their expected W/L. The Sox right now are 3 games worse than expectations. And they seem perpetually to underperform expectations on W/L.
I can think of all kinds of players the Sox should get to make the team better. My guess is that if the Sox could have had them, they would have.
Before the season we were talking about how to get the most out of this offense: platoon advantages, L/R matchups, etc. Now we're pretending we can "outlast" the pitching problems by adding a few runs to the offense. In order to turn this team back into a 94 win team, that is, if this staff continues to pitch like this, you need an 1100 run offense. At this rate, the pitchers will allow 931 runs. Constructing an offense that can support this staff and still make the playoffs is so unlikely as to be unrealistic. So yes, by all means, let's continue to discuss the wrong solution to the problem.
What does offense optimization look like in this fantasyland? I think we should start with improving LF by 66 runs. Then we need to improve CF by 66 runs. And catcher by 66 runs. Then all we need to do is improve RF by 16 runs. There's our magical 212 runs. Problem solved!
Where I quibble with you (or at least what I think you are saying) is that just because the pitching is catastrophically bad we don't try to fix other problems. Everyone agrees that the number one problem is the pitching. I think most of us believe that there are very real fixes to the pitching problems (specifically Lester and Buchholz pitching better). If that starts happening this becomes a dramatically better team.
But it's erroneous to sit back and say "the pitching sucks, so let's accept these other lesser problems." I agree that Middlebrooks (or Youk) to left is a bad idea. But there are improvements to be made in center, on the bench and in the manager's chair. If you want to argue that improvements in those places are expected by the people currently in those roles I don't agree but fair enough. Ignoring lesser but still meaningful flaws is a bad idea though.
Valentine is not the problem. STOP SAYING VALENTINE NEEDS TO BE FIRED, ALL OF YOU. YOU SOUND LIKE MORONS. As I said last night in the Game Chatter, this is BaseballTHINKFactory and "fire Valentine" is not a thinking man's thought. Cut the crap already.
I'd like to see Ellsbury back in center. That would solve whatever problem you seem to think Byrd is the cause of in CF. Byrd is an interim solution and for that purpose, he's as good as can be expected. Linares or whatever flavor-of-the-day you want to choose will not be meaningfully better in the short term. There's no point of trading for a great, very good, or even good CF because you have an all-star coming back in a few short weeks.
The bench could use a righty with some pop, but WMB is not the answer because he needs regular at-bats. So, if that's "optimizing the offense," then yes, the bench needs a righty bat with some pop. That will make everything better.
I fail to see how thinking Valentine has been a problem is not considered a "thinking man's thought." I don't think it is at all unreasonable to note the many mistakes Valentine has made already, his age and his extended period away from MLB and think that the game has passed him by.
Is it a snap judgment that could be proven wrong? Perhaps. But you are dismissing it out of hand with no evidence whatsoever that Valentine has been anything other than poor. We have a team with multiple people performing below expectations and several questionable moves on the tactical front. This isn't "Jon Lester sucks and should be released", there is a track record there, Valentine has no such track record of any relevance.
And if you're an idiot for thinking this after 29 games, then I'm an idiot for trying to have a discussion with you about it. But more importantly, if you're an idiot and you have keys to the place, then the lunatics are running the asylum.
One of the things I loved about Sox Therapy, and I said this a few weeks ago, was that it was eminently reasonable. Mostly I guess that was just MCoA that I was referring to. You people are ruining this place. It's turning into Sons of Sam Horn with all this ######## about Valentine and Linares and WMB. Absolutely ruining it. It used to be that I knew the exact dividing line between SOSH and Sox Therapy. And in a few short weeks, I can't see it anymore. Insane.
So, I guess I'm done with Sox Therapy for a while.
Also, I don't know why you think the quality of starting pitching automatically has nothing to do with the manager and coaching staff.
You keep telling me I'm an idiot re: Valentine but you have said nothing in Valentine's defense. You have noted (correctly) that he is not the primary problem. That does not absolve him of his many mistakes. I do not understand why you seem so personally offended by this. If a player who hadn't playing in the Majors for many years was starting in center field and hitting .143 I think we'd probably assume he was done. Valentine has been away from the Majors for a long time, so far he has not done anything to make me believe he hasn't lost his fastball. I hope I'm incredibly wrong and he's holding a shiny new trophy in October but I don't see it.
For what it's worth I agree on Middlebrooks, it's far too early to anoint him as the next big thing.
Middlebrooks doesn't have to be the next big thing. Sox fans just need something to be hopeful about right now. It might as well be Middlebrooks. As long as the team doesn't do anything irrevocably stupid in response (like trading Youk for magic beans) I fail to see the harm.
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