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   1. Rough Carrigan Posted: November 07, 2005 at 02:40 AM (#1721139)
I love the idea of B.J. Ryan in the Sox bullpen beside a resurgent Foulke. Combine that with a smoke throwing rookie, Craig Hansen, and Timlin for the 7th inning and you've got, potentially, one terrific pen.

Why not just make Papelbon the long man to start the season then put him in the rotation at June or so if you want to keep down his innings?

I remember, back in the early 90's writing a letter to the Sox suggesting that with Danny Darwin and Greg Harris, they had two guys who could throw about 120 or so innings really effectively and that they should split one rotation spot between them, Harris starts in the first half and Darwin in the second half or something like that. I don't remember if I forget to send it by Fedex to get Butch Hobson's attention or what.
   2. chris p Posted: November 07, 2005 at 02:41 AM (#1721141)
i agree that papelbon should be in the pen. he's good there, and he clearly needs to work on his secondary stuff before he becomes an effective starter. so where does that leaveu the starting rotation?

clement, wakefield - sure things.
schilling - he will be there at the start of the season, but he needs to be on a shorter leash this year if he sucks.
arroyo - meh. i'm not his #1 fan, but we are shallow at starting pitcher. i'd entertain trade proposals where we get a starter back.
wells - he gone
wade miller - he gone
so we need to fill at least 1 spot in the starting rotation (2 if we send brandon arroyo packing). ... in a perfect world, i'd sign burnett, trade arroyo, put dinardo in the rotation, and call up alvarez if a starter gets hurt. another option would be to keep arroyo and have dinardo be the 6th starter.

in the bullpen, i would still go after ryan. foulke is far from a sure thing, timlin is old, and papelbon has very little major little experience. ryan is an absolute stud--a lefty that gets 12ks/9. a bullpen of ryan, papelbon, and timlin is good. a bullpen of foulke, ryan, papelbon, and timlin is dominant.

bottom line, pitching is hte #1 priority. i wouldn't sign damon ... for center field, i'd like to see the FO get creative-- i like erstad (the manny/erstad/glaus trade intrigues me), but cameron scares me. i would let stern play center before i re-signed damon.
   3. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: November 07, 2005 at 02:59 AM (#1721165)
I'm in for Paps in the bullpen at least for another year.
   4. Toby Posted: November 07, 2005 at 03:42 AM (#1721192)
I don't care where he pitches as long as he pitches. And we call him Johnny Rocket.
   5. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:28 AM (#1721226)
The thing with Li'l Papi is that he's such a good prospect that either plan works.

If we take Darren's premise - and it's quite reasonable - that Papelbon currently lacks the consistent secondary pitches to be a full-time starter, then he'll be really good in the bullpen. If the Red Sox have more faith than we do in his splitter and slider and curve and changeup and good lord kid just pick two... anyway, if they have more faith than we do, then he's probably a good addition to the rotation.

I'd rather not see Papelbon as a long man, though, I think. He's good enough right now that if he's not starting, I'd prefer to see him in high-leverage situations.

One of the reasons I've supported Papelbon in the rotation previously is that I like BJ Ryan quite a bit more than I like most of the SP options. Kevin Millwood at 4/40 scares me quite a bit more than Ryan at 4/27, for instance. Am I crazy?
   6. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:29 AM (#1721228)
Oh, and I should add, excellent use of the little "read more" gimmick.
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:39 AM (#1721229)
I forget, what did Thon-Bon do in college, start or relieve?

wade miller - he gone


I thought they still had rights to Miller?
   8. karlmagnus Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:47 AM (#1721235)
So did I; let's keep Miller, he's cheap and might be good. I think Papi's immediate future can be decided in spring training, when he can work on his secondary pitches. Miller can be the #5 starter for the first few weeks, and DiNardo can backstop any injuries or slot into the rotation if we deal Arroyo.

I think this winter is a very difficult market, and we have temporarily been stricken stupid by Theo's departure. We should make as few changes as possible, allowing kids to fill any holes that appear. This is also yet another good reason not to deal Manny -- it would be a big deal, and we'd mess it up at present (yes, this means YOU, Lucchino!) I'd try for Graffanino, Damon and Muleller but not chase any of them.

If '06 is a rebuilding year, so be it; we'll be smarter by next winter, the market may be better and our prospects will have matured.
   9. chris p Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:50 AM (#1721237)
I forget, what did Thon-Bon do in college, start or relieve?

first base for 3 years, closer for 1.
   10. Old Matt Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:54 AM (#1721242)
Phillies have already decided to make Ryan Madson back into a starter for '06.

Mets face a similar decision with Aaron Heilman this offseason. I'm intrigued by both cases.
   11. Darren Posted: November 07, 2005 at 06:13 AM (#1721272)
One of the reasons I've supported Papelbon in the rotation previously is that I like BJ Ryan quite a bit more than I like most of the SP options. Kevin Millwood at 4/40 scares me quite a bit more than Ryan at 4/27, for instance. Am I crazy?

No, you're not crazy. Millwood was excellent last year, and I think in signing him, you're basically getting Clement only a little better with a little more injury risk. The thing about Ryan is, he seems to be at the top of Boston, NYYs, and ??? lists. Who knows what that gets him?

Remember, though, even if there are reasons to prefer Ryan over a SP in general, Papelbon's background and other issues could tilt it back the other way.

Oh, and I should add, excellent use of the little "read more" gimmick.

I learned it from listening to Michael Kay. "A lot of people think the Yankees' big problem is pitching. When we come back, I'm going to tell you why I think it may be in... the outfield!"
   12. Darren Posted: November 07, 2005 at 06:16 AM (#1721275)
Boy, I didn't even look at that. Somehow I butchered my intro and lost the opening paragraph. That cliffhanger was totally not where I thought it would be. What a mess.
   13. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 07, 2005 at 12:52 PM (#1721408)
Oh please bring BJ.

I'd love to see the Sox bullpen as this:

CL: Fixed Ketih FOulke. Won't be as brilliant as before, wont' use him as "fireman", but hopefully can get 3 outs without giving up 3 runs.
SU: Ryan - Comes in and cleans people's krap up
SU: Papelbon - ditto
LOOGY: Myers
MR: Timlin - Will only come on in situations where there are no baserunners
LR : Bradford
   14. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 07, 2005 at 01:01 PM (#1721409)
Btw, why am I not allowed to call him "The Papsmear?"
   15. villageidiom Posted: November 07, 2005 at 02:50 PM (#1721436)
Please Put Pap in the Pen.

Lastly, I think there’s a real possibility that Foulke comes back strong this year.

Anything is possible. And I think there's a better chance of it happening in 2006 than there was in 2005. But I'm not holding my breath.

Oh please bring BJ.

I imagine you'd get 8 million Google hits on that one, only one of them involving Ryan.

LR : Bradford

If LR means Long Relief, no. They need someone in that role who can eat innings, and potentially spot start.

If LR means Lefties Rake, yes. But I don't really want that with their bullpen.
   16. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 07, 2005 at 03:10 PM (#1721447)
Bradford can eat innings... right?

Garbage innings. Spot start is definitly a no no.

I suppose JEremy Gonzalez would be good for LR, but Bradford IMO is too valuable to go to waste. The guy is still a good pitcher.
   17. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 07, 2005 at 03:11 PM (#1721448)
My WAG would be 80-90 IP, 3.50 ERA as a reliever, 150-170 IP, 4.30 ERA as a starter.

Does anybody have the CFBPS projection for Papsmear?
   18. chris p Posted: November 07, 2005 at 03:16 PM (#1721451)
I imagine you'd get 8 million Google hits on that one, only one of them involving Ryan.

Upton?
   19. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 07, 2005 at 03:47 PM (#1721489)
SU: Ryan - Comes in and cleans people's krap up

Ryan is not going to go anywhere where he's not the closer.

-- MWE
   20. RobertMachemer Posted: November 07, 2005 at 08:06 PM (#1722096)
His brief stint as a starter last year was pretty rocky, and it appears that his secondary pitches may not be reliable enough for him to be a consistently good SP.

Papelbon
as starter: 16 IP, 15 H, 2 HR, 9 UIBB, 15 SO, 71 BF, 2.25 ERA, 4.96 dERA
in relief:  18 IP, 18 H, 2 HR, 6 UIBB, 19 SO, 77 BF, 3.00 ERA, 3.46 dERA


Were his relief innings really THAT rocky compared to his innings as a starter? I can't comment on whether or not he has the pitches to reliably start or not, but it's certainly not clear to me from looking at the above numbers that Papelbon's relief numbers were significantly better than his starter numbers (not given the small number of innings he pitched overall). Better, possibly, but not all that significantly so.
   21. RobertMachemer Posted: November 07, 2005 at 08:08 PM (#1722101)
Oi. And because the preview apparently lies...

Papelbon
as reliever: 18 IP, 18 H, 2 HR, 6 UIBB, 19 SO, 77 BF, 3.00 ERA, 3.63 dERA
   22. RobertMachemer Posted: November 07, 2005 at 08:09 PM (#1722103)
Ok, that's just weird
   23. RobertMachemer Posted: November 07, 2005 at 08:12 PM (#1722113)
My typing in more "pre"-tagged stuff apparently causes there to be a weird scroll-bar in the middle of the post (or not). The first one didn't show the reliever numbers until I posted the second attempt (which as of this post, doesn't show its numbers at all). But I'm betting that I can get the reliever numbers to show up if I try this...

(Incidentally, if this doesn't work, there's a typo in the first set of reliever numbers -- I believe Papelbon had a 3.63 dERA as a reliever).

Papelbon in relief 3.63 dERA
note: I accidentally mistyped his walks into the spreadsheet before
   24. RobertMachemer Posted: November 07, 2005 at 08:12 PM (#1722114)
I'll go back to: that's just weird.
   25. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 08, 2005 at 01:14 AM (#1722646)
Papsmear is just terrible. No.
   26. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 08, 2005 at 01:42 AM (#1722662)
Would you name your dog "cumstain"?

That's actually pretty funny... "Come here cumstain, c'mon boy..."

Ryan is not going to go anywhere where he's not the closer.


Well it's not like that we have to TELL Him or anything...

I know i know bad way to do business.
   27. chris p Posted: November 08, 2005 at 01:44 AM (#1722666)
Ryan is not going to go anywhere where he's not the closer.

I have no problem demoting foulke and signing ryan, based on their 2005 performances. might be nice to ease foulke back in with a lower leverage role anyway.
   28. 1k5v3L Posted: November 08, 2005 at 01:49 AM (#1722673)
I'm sure Foulke can't wait to go back to sixth inning duty...

Maybe then Billy Beane can reacquire him for Huston Street and Jairo Garcia.
   29. Darren Posted: November 08, 2005 at 02:29 AM (#1722707)
Ryan is not going to go anywhere where he's not the closer.

Well, his two biggest bidders are Boston and the NYY. I have a feeling if they both want him as a setup man, he'd at least consider it.

Btw, why am I not allowed to call him "The Papsmear?"

Because it's gross and unfunny. If it was gross and funny, it might be okay. But by merely being repulsive, it's not going to work.
   30. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 08, 2005 at 09:01 AM (#1723149)
Because it's gross and unfunny. If it was gross and funny, it might be okay. But by merely being repulsive, it's not going to work.

Too bad he doesn't throw a knuckleball. Otherwise we coudl call him "The Papillion" or something... you know, French for "Butterfly", although I'm not sure sure how French woudl fly around here.

I guess if "Papsmear" won't work, than "Papilloma" won't work either.
   31. Norcan Posted: November 08, 2005 at 10:15 AM (#1723194)
I would stay away from Millwood. In his eight full seasons, only two have been good and they have never come back to back. He also gave up a lot of hits last season (8.53 per 9) for someone with such a good ERA. Whether it was from timely good luck, defense or getting more groundballs than usual, I wouldn't expect him to repeat those numbers next year.

Like Saberhagen, Millwood seems to have a pattern: Two middling years followed by a very good season. That's hardly a foolproof pattern but it's something to be leery of, especially considering his ratios last year and the likelihood that he wants many years for big dollars.

Furthermore, I really dislike watching him pitch. His painfully slow delivery. The endless time he takes between pitches with men on base. With Clement and his similar actions already on staff, I mercifully beg a pass.
   32. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 08, 2005 at 10:45 AM (#1723208)
If we gave somebody like Abe Alvarez a chance to start would he be hammered out of oblivion?
   33. chris p Posted: November 08, 2005 at 03:04 PM (#1723304)
If we gave somebody like Abe Alvarez a chance to start would he be hammered out of oblivion?

If by "somebody like Abe Alvarez" you mean Dinardo, then I'd say there is a pretty good chance thaht he'll be effective.
   34. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 08, 2005 at 04:08 PM (#1723366)
If by "somebody like Abe Alvarez" you mean Dinardo, then I'd say there is a pretty good chance thaht he'll be effective.

You know what I meant... is there somebody in the system we can promote to the 5th starter spot and not be hamemred out of oblivion? YOu know, something like 170 IP, 97*ERA+... instead of having to spend money and assets, just bring somebody up that won't suck the joint up completely and use our resources to get bullpen pitchers/real first baseman?

Just throwign it out there. I like J-Gon for 5th starter though.
   35. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 09, 2005 at 07:51 AM (#1724718)
97 ERA+? That's pretty damn good for a 5th starter, and much much better than "not hammered out of oblivion"...
   36. chris p Posted: November 09, 2005 at 03:19 PM (#1724853)
is there somebody in the system we can promote to the 5th starter spot and not be hamemred out of oblivion?

yeah. his name is lenny dinardo.
   37. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 10, 2005 at 04:00 AM (#1725930)
yeah. his name is lenny dinardo.

Alright, then let's USE HIM as teh 5th starter.

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