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   1. OlePerfesser Posted: July 31, 2006 at 02:30 PM (#2119469)
We might as well all face it: this is not going to be a very productive day at the office.

What do y'all think of the Lugo rumors? My take - if the trade happens - is that the Sox think Mark Loretta can't handle up-the-middle defense, while Lugo would be gold glover at 2nd. What are the Sox rumored to be offering?

That's MCoA's comment from the other thread. I think this could be right. Any reports on how Pedroia looks at SS? I'm also wondering whether the FO has decided Lugo's the long-run solution at SS, with Pedroia at 2B.
   2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 02:49 PM (#2119489)
I'm working under the assumption that Petunia is a 2B, longterm. His tools are considered marginal, and just because Eckstein pulled it off at short doesn't mean others will.

I dunno about Lugo longterm. He's rumored to be looking for 4/30 or 5/40, I believe. He could actually be worth that money given proper defensive estimates, but he's got no upside beyond it. The 06-07 free agent makret will make last year's look like a frickin' cornucopia, and Lugo might be able to get hte contract, but it won't be worth it. My guess, as such, is that Gonzalez and Cora are expected to stay on for '07 and work Petunia in, while Lugo would be a rental who guarantees draft picks.

...ah, just actually read the link. According to one of Edes' sources, I'm, like, wrong:
A Red Sox source said last week that while the Sox liked Lugo, they expected to have more interest in him this winter if he becomes a free agent.
One other thing - how much would you offer for Jason Schmidt? He's the double whammy - a legitimate star at a position where the Sox are running out replacement level players, analogous to Bobby Abreu for the Yankees. That's exactly the kind of guy you have to target. Edes says the Giants' demands are high:
he Giants have "made it clear that for someone to pull this off, it's going to be 'expensive.' They would want at least two players back -- either two top-tier young players they can rebuild around or one player like that and a young starting pitcher who could replace Schmidt in the rotation now and down the road."
Obviously, if the Sox had to give up Lester or Papelbon, that would totally defeat the point of adding Schmidt for this year. Schmidt's obviously better than Lester, but the point of adding a starter is that he'd exile the Snyder brigade to Pawtucket where they belong. Given that, the best package I could see the Sox putting together would be something like Hansen/Bowden/Murphy, and that seems very unlikely to tip the Giants over the edge on Schmidt. The Giants are now 4 back in the west and wild card races, so they are a lot more likely to move Schmidt now than they used to be.
   3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 02:55 PM (#2119498)
Well, looks like Schmidt's K-rate is down significantly this year, so he might not necessarily be the legitimate star I think of his as. If he's not so good no more, obviously the above paragraphs don't apply.
   4. JB H Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:15 PM (#2119518)
I would bet that Schmidt's Red Sox ERA would project to be above 4.50

SOSH is down. That must mean there's some super hot humor I'm missing out on
   5. OlePerfesser Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:15 PM (#2119519)
Also, Schmidt apparently just became a 10-and-5 man, so he'd have to approve a trade.

On his diminished K-rate, I wonder whether that's diminished stuff (his STF rating per BProsp is 22, vs. 19 for his career, but well below his peak 36 figures in '03 and '04) or a change in philosophy. He's logged 144 IP this year, to a 3.18 ERA, and might just be trying to pitch deeper into games by "pitching to contact" more. (I dunno--have only seen two Giants games this year, neither of which involved him.) He is 33, however...
   6. JB H Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:27 PM (#2119534)
How good is Shealy? His Colorado Springs OPS the last couple years is in the mid 900s. That's not very impressive is it? Anyone have any MLEs?
   7. Fridas Boss Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:29 PM (#2119539)
I just heard an Andruw Jones rumor from a usually reliable friend..anyone have any sources/leads?
   8. Nasty Nate Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:34 PM (#2119550)
2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 10:49 AM (#2119489)

I'm working under the assumption that Petunia


go play in traffic
   9. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:36 PM (#2119553)
His line this year translates to: .225/.281/.424
   10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:37 PM (#2119554)
How good is Shealy? His Colorado Springs OPS the last couple years is in the mid 900s. That's not very impressive is it? Anyone have any MLEs?
Good intuition. Chone Smith posted AA/AAA MLEs at his Anaheim Angels blog. Shealy clocks in at 225/280/425. The Sox better have some damn good scouting reports if they're interested, because Shealy looks like he falls short of being a major leaguer.
   11. Mister High Standards Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:39 PM (#2119556)
For what its worth Pecota's comps on Sheely are really favorable.

Frida - what about A JOneS?
   12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:43 PM (#2119564)
New Clemens update from the Globe (linked above):
Roger Clemens' name just won't go away. According to the Globe's Nick Cafardo, a source close to Clemens said today that the Astros pitcher would not ask to be traded even though his frustration level is "through the roof" following another frustrating loss yesterday. Clemens, who struck out nine and allowed just one run in seven innings, earned a no-decision, and though he is 2-4 on the season, owns a 2.09 ERA. Cafardo also reports that the source indicated that Clemens would not exercise a veto (he has a full no trade clause) of a deal as long as he was dealt to a team of his choice. That team would be Boston first and possibly the Yankees.
   13. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:43 PM (#2119565)
According to WEEI, Sox turned down an offer of Lester, Crisp, and Hansen for Andruw Jones last night.
   14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:44 PM (#2119567)
According to WEEI, Sox turned down an offer of Lester, Crisp, and Hansen for Andruw Jones last night.
John Schuerholz joins the pony brigade!
   15. Mister High Standards Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:45 PM (#2119568)
Crisp and Hansen plus I do in a fricking heart beat.
   16. Mister High Standards Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:47 PM (#2119572)
Theo - get Roger. get him now.
   17. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:47 PM (#2119573)
Just not "plus Lester."
   18. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:51 PM (#2119583)
Theo - get Roger. get him now.
For Lester or Li'l Papi? I don't think I'd do that. Anyone else, sure, but not them. I tend to doubt the Sox have the pieces to get an ace, but man I'd love to be proven wrong by 4 pm.
   19. Mister High Standards Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:58 PM (#2119594)
No. Not for either. While I agree the sox don't have the pieces to get an ace without Paps or Lester, however, this Roger situation is a little unique in that the Astros don't have much leverage if he "must" go.
   20. JB H Posted: July 31, 2006 at 04:01 PM (#2119598)
That MLE should underrate Shealy some. The rest of his track record isn't as mediocre as his AAA line this year. His prime might be Daubachish

Unless Roger forces Houston's hand, I really doubt he's coming to Boston. He's getting paid so much money and would probably take a lot of talent
   21. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: July 31, 2006 at 04:01 PM (#2119600)
Here's more from the Clemens update that Matt posted in #12.

"Clemens would love to be dealt to the Red Sox, but doesn't want to antagonize his hometown by asking for a trade. Similarly, owner Drayon McLane, having won the furious bidding war for Clemens two months ago, doesn't want to alienate Astros fans by dealing Clemens. If Clemens could make a trade seem like the Astros' idea, he'd be all for it. And if the Astros got cover from Clemens and could say that a deal was made at Clemens' request, they'd make it. But since neither side is going to accommodate the other, Clemens is stuck."

This is frustrating.
   22. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 04:06 PM (#2119607)
Yeah, it sounds like a junior high school dance or something.

Theo wanted to ask out Roger, but Roger already told Bobby who told Jessica who told Gerry that he'd go with him, so he totally can't be all, "I wanna go with Theo" becuz it would be so mean to Gerry, but Gerry likes Cash better anyway, but he can't tell Jessica because she's at her grandma's...
   23. chris p Posted: July 31, 2006 at 04:07 PM (#2119608)
oh no you didn't!
   24. Jeff K. Posted: July 31, 2006 at 04:27 PM (#2119632)
"Clemens would love to be dealt to the Red Sox, but doesn't want to antagonize his hometown by asking for a trade. Similarly, owner Drayon McLane, having won the furious bidding war for Clemens two months ago, doesn't want to alienate Astros fans by dealing Clemens. If Clemens could make a trade seem like the Astros' idea, he'd be all for it. And if the Astros got cover from Clemens and could say that a deal was made at Clemens' request, they'd make it. But since neither side is going to accommodate the other, Clemens is stuck."

When PR attacks!

Seriously, and people ask how I can hate a fellow Longhorn in Clemens.
   25. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: July 31, 2006 at 04:27 PM (#2119633)
I'm wondering, if the Sox are talking to the Rockies as much as has been reported, if they're talking about someone other than Shealy; namely Jason Jennings. I admit, I haven't seen or heard Jennings' name in any rumors; but, as far as I can tell, he can opt for free agency after this season if he doesn't exercize his option. It's a mutual option for about $6M. If I were Jennings - youngish, league average for several years and having a career year - I'd want to test the market. If the Rockies are thinking he might leave, they might want to see if they can get something useful for him; unless they think he's going to get them to playoffs.
   26. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 04:29 PM (#2119639)
I got a little jolt back to reality - on SoSH, "Soxscout" took down a summary of Keith Law's interview on EEI this morning:
Keith Law from ESPN says:

Sounds like Houston, Jays, Twins, Dodgers are closing up shop unless something pops up out of the blue.

Still think Soriano will be dealt, but looking at the clock and nothing is imminent…

Really surprised if Oswalt or Clemens is moves, haven’t heard anything on Roger in a few days.

The Sox have been on Lugo for a year and a half, but their last regime made things impossible. Jays and Mets interested also. The Rays want to move him; Boston is probably the most likely destination by other teams dropping out. No guarantees with this.

Marlins interested in Soriano so they can then flip him for minor league bats.
Basically, the far more likely outcomes today are Lugo and the null set.
   27. OlePerfesser Posted: July 31, 2006 at 04:50 PM (#2119674)
And I'm not sure Lugo has much impact vis-a-vis the guys who are already there or a Pedroia call-up.

I still expect a league-average starting pitcher to be acquired sometime this afternoon, and I'm intrigued by Livan. He hates his current manager, apparently; if there's one guy who pitches to the level of his circumstances, it might be him. I'd take a chance on putting him in a pennant race and seeing what happened.
   28. villageidiom Posted: July 31, 2006 at 04:58 PM (#2119688)
No. Not for either. While I agree the sox don't have the pieces to get an ace without Paps or Lester, however, this Roger situation is a little unique in that the Astros don't have much leverage if he "must" go.

Let's say Houston gives up on this season. If so, they have little reason to want to pay the remaining $6 million on Clemens' contract. What they'd want is some set of low-level prospects who make nothing, and might turn out to be something. If multiple teams are motivated to land him, they can demand considerably more than that; but I'm assuming only one team is really making a serious move to get him at this point and the Houston FO, for PR reasons mentioned above, probably isn't actively shopping him to others.

If Houston hasn't given up on this season, they'll want either to keep Clemens, or to deal him for a set of cheap players who can help NOW. I don't think the latter will happen today.
   29. villageidiom Posted: July 31, 2006 at 05:05 PM (#2119696)
Just to clarify my own post... If Houston gives up on 2006, their motivation for trading Clemens is clearing $6 million off the books. Hence the lack of need for top-shelf prospects in return. If they don't trade him, they're stuck with the bill. Houston trading away Clemens, when you get down to it, isn't much different from Philly trading Abreu.
   30. OlePerfesser Posted: July 31, 2006 at 05:08 PM (#2119705)
Latest Soriano rumors, per ESPN:

...The Red Sox rolled their shopping cart through Soriano-ville on Sunday, just for the fun of seeing what happened. Well, the odds are: Not much will. Since the Red Sox are not a team interested in unloading its supply of young, electric arms, they don't seem like a good match with the Nationals. But these are two imaginative franchises doing the talking. So never say never. Meanwhile, the Marlins were another surprise shopper on Soriano. Florida seems like the least likely bidder out there. But if you think creatively -- which is the Marlins' specialty -- it's actually the most likely bidder. If the Nationals want bright young pitching prospects back, there's no team that has more of them than Florida. Heck, the Fish traded for about 12 of them last winter. So the Marlins could lop off some of their pitching depth, reel in Soriano and then spin him to address its position-player needs, to a bidder that couldn't make it work with Washington.
   31. sasquatch83 Posted: July 31, 2006 at 05:13 PM (#2119715)
Some Twins bloggers are mentioning something about Torii Hunter and the Sox, although I don't know the other details. Anyone else hear anything about this?
   32. villageidiom Posted: July 31, 2006 at 05:15 PM (#2119721)
Yeah. Torii Hunter wears socks.
   33. Josh Posted: July 31, 2006 at 05:51 PM (#2119778)
Ponies wear socks, too.
   34. OlePerfesser Posted: July 31, 2006 at 06:32 PM (#2119836)
[sound of crickets]

Man, this is turning out to be considerably less exciting than expected.

Sorta like last year's deadline, when so much time was spent shopping Manny that there wasn't time or energy left to make a couple of marginal upgrades.

I sure hope Pantload looks good tonight.
   35. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: July 31, 2006 at 06:41 PM (#2119844)
It seemed like last year's marginal upgrades were all a few weeks before the deadline - Graffanino, Cora, Payton/Bradford - all those moves were pre-deadline. I think the bizarre flirtation with Jose Cruz was their real only deadline deal.
   36. Hungry Hungry Hipolito Pichardo Posted: July 31, 2006 at 06:54 PM (#2119874)
From Rotoworld: "The Providence Journal's Sean McAdam said on WEEI radio that the Red Sox have been in contact with Julio Lugo's agents to discuss a contract extension.

If that's the case, Boston and Tampa Bay must have agreed on the players in a deal that may or may not include additional teams. Lugo was believed to be asking for $40 million over five years from the Rays."
   37. Famous Original Joe C Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:01 PM (#2119888)
from rotoworld.com:


The Providence Journal's Sean McAdam said on WEEI radio that the Red Sox have been in contact with Julio Lugo's agents to discuss a contract extension.

If that's the case, Boston and Tampa Bay must have agreed on the players in a deal that may or may not include additional teams. Lugo was believed to be asking for $40 million over five years from the Rays.
   38. Sam M. Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:03 PM (#2119890)
Three baseball sources say that Pirates RHP Kip Wells is on the verge of being traded to Boston, and that the two sides are ironing out details to get it done. A deal could be done at any minute, a baseball source says.

This on ESPN.com.
   39. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:06 PM (#2119898)
Posted on the chat on ESPN.com:

MLB TRADE UPDATE FROM THE MAG'S AMY NELSON
Three baseball sources say that Pirates RHP Kip Wells is on the verge of being traded to Boston, and that the two sides are ironing out details to get it done. A deal could be done at any minute, a baseball source says.
   40. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:08 PM (#2119904)
For those of you who don't trust a single Primate, there's corroberation that ESPN.com said it.

OTOH, for those of you who might trust two Primates together, you don't know Sam or me.
   41. scotto Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:16 PM (#2119924)
Edes has had the same Wells rumor posted for an hour or so on boston.com
   42. Mattbert Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:27 PM (#2119978)
Lugo would certainly project to be an upgrade over Gonzalez. I doubt the wisdom of making him the next Renteria by giving him Varitek money, but I also doubt the Sox would give him that kind of contract. At least I hope not. The guy's already 30.

I could go for that Kip Wells deal provided what the Sox have to give up appropriately reflects that Pitt is selling way, way low on Wells.
   43. OlePerfesser Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:29 PM (#2119985)
Kip Wells of the 3.96 K/9 and 0.89 K/BB rates this year?

Don't some sabermetrically literate folk work in this FO?

Also, since IT'S ALL ABOUT THE VARIANCE (TM), the logic of bringing in someone who is battling injury issues to solve injury problems seems a bit sketchy to me.

Isn't there a healthy-as-a-horse innings eater available at a modest price?
   44. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:39 PM (#2120010)
What the latest on Trot's arm injury? Is there a public report from the MRI this morning?
   45. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:45 PM (#2120022)
Whoa, Keith Law is kinda hot.
   46. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:46 PM (#2120026)
Isn't there a healthy-as-a-horse innings eater available at a modest price?
Well, there are some healthy ponies...

Kip Wells for Abe Alvarez, according to SoSH. I like it - Wells projects as better than Kyle Snyder.
   47. scotto Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:49 PM (#2120029)
Kip Wells to Texas, according to another thread.
   48. scotto Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:50 PM (#2120034)
Kip Wells to Texas, according to another thread.
   49. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:51 PM (#2120035)
Robothal reports: Wells to Texas (not Boston).

So, well done there, SoSH...
   50. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:59 PM (#2120057)
Good. I don't think much of Wells. Hell, I may rather just put Alvarez in the rotation.
   51. karlmagnus Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:59 PM (#2120061)
Good, Kip Wells is not worth Alvarez. For a bag of balls, maybe, but even balls are getting pricey!
   52. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: July 31, 2006 at 08:00 PM (#2120065)
ESPNEWS just said Kip Wells to Texas, if I heard correctly (if not, they were rumoring it).

And they said Craig Wilson to the NYY for Shawn Chacon - arrgh.
   53. phil bball Posted: July 31, 2006 at 08:18 PM (#2120107)
And they said Craig Wilson to the NYY for Shawn Chacon - arrgh.

Never quite figured out why the Pirates were so sour on Craig Wilson - but he must have seriously pissed someone off. Casey ... Burnitz ... then Nady ... finally the trade for a proven mediocrity in Chacon ...

I've rarely seen any team so determined to keep a pretty decent bat off their field.
   54. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: July 31, 2006 at 08:19 PM (#2120110)
So, the Sox do Nady - I mean, Nada.
   55. phil bball Posted: July 31, 2006 at 08:19 PM (#2120111)
And they said Craig Wilson to the NYY for Shawn Chacon - arrgh.

Never quite figured out why the Pirates were so sour on Craig Wilson - but he must have seriously pissed someone off. Casey ... Burnitz ... then Nady ... finally the trade for a proven mediocrity in Chacon ...

I've rarely seen any team so determined to keep a pretty decent bat off their field.
   56. OlePerfesser Posted: July 31, 2006 at 08:24 PM (#2120122)
Nada indeed.

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, but this FO's interest in Moving Big Pieces Around seems to prevent them from picking up the occasional Small Piece (at moderate cost) that can lead to a small upgrade or, at the least, provide some useful insurance.
   57. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 08:25 PM (#2120124)
radio has Lugo to LA for prospects, so that pretty much scotches all hte Red Sox rumors.

Other than Andruw, I guess...
   58. Mattbert Posted: July 31, 2006 at 08:36 PM (#2120145)
I have to tip my hat to Brian Cashman. He's made the Yankees substantially better in the last few days without giving up much of anything.

One of the prospects in the Lugo deal is Joel Guzman, according to ESPN. If that was TB's asking price, I'm glad the Sox didn't give up an equivalent talent.
   59. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 08:42 PM (#2120159)
If that was TB's asking price, I'm glad the Sox didn't give up an equivalent talent.
Hell, I'm not sure we have an equivalent talent.

Herald blog sez: Francona says he spoke to Epstein just before 4 pm, and Epstein said not to expect anything.
   60. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 08:48 PM (#2120174)
So, WEEI is a big ###########, with the hosts defending Epstein and telling the critics to shut up. Kinda fascinating.

I dunno. I can't argue that the Sox had to make a deal, given how few players who could actually help the Sox were available. but, jeez, Kyle Snyder in the rotation and we make no trades?
   61. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: July 31, 2006 at 08:54 PM (#2120192)
That does seem to be the July M.O. for Theo, O.P. However, in the offseason, he stockpiles depth like crazy. For example, look at the 1B guys they had at various points: Snow, Petagine, Choi.
   62. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 31, 2006 at 08:57 PM (#2120207)
This is random, but I just noticed that Cla Meredith has a 1.76 ERA and a 10/1 K/BB ratio in 15.1 IP for the Padres. Good for him.
   63. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:01 PM (#2120220)
That does seem to be the July M.O. for Theo, O.P. However, in the offseason, he stockpiles depth like crazy. For example, look at the 1B guys they had at various points: Snow, Petagine, Choi.
But they have no rotation depth. Of course it's easier to collect depth in the offseason (unless you received the Eye of Hypnotizo from an old crone in the wailing woods, like Cashman, apparently).

But the Sox have Kyle frickin' Snyder starting regularly. They needed a starting pitcher, and I'm a bit frustrated they couldn't get one.
   64. Mattbert Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:07 PM (#2120231)
Hell, I'm not sure we have an equivalent talent.
You haven't been reading the Jeff Natale threads, have you?

Strike the 'an' from the last sentence in #58, I guess. I'm glad they didn't ship off a Lester/Pedroia package or something along those lines. It's kind of a mystery to me why LA felt they needed Lugo to fill in for Kent so badly. I guess it got crowded at third with Betemit coming over from Atlanta and LaRoche continuing to develop, but it still seems like a steep price for middle infield filler. Lugo's better than that, obviously, but LA's situation implies they don't see him as more than that.

It's been a frustrating deadline. The Yankees have made some extremely positive moves, and the best thing that can be said about Boston is they didn't do anything dumb. The Sox don't really need Craig Wilson, but it never hurts to have another solid hitter on the bench, especially since the asking price was basically Jason Johnson or Kyle Snyder.
   65. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:09 PM (#2120236)
Theo press conf on EEI...

Says they "came close on a lot of things."

Talks about the importance of sticking to a long-term plan.

Remains the single most boring interview subject in the history of mankind.
   66. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:10 PM (#2120242)
That does seem to be the July M.O. for Theo, O.P. However, in the offseason, he stockpiles depth like crazy. For example, look at the 1B guys they had at various points: Snow, Petagine, Choi.
   67. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:11 PM (#2120245)
so, I don't get why Theo didn't jump into the Lidle or Craig Wilson deals?

both players would have done a good job filling a need, and kept the yankees away.

Theo could have put together better offers for both guys w/o affecting his ML talent (or nl talent( in the least.

He may have lost the division by his lack of moxie the past week.
   68. Dave Cyprian Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:15 PM (#2120267)
It may not be pretty but I for one am still happy we didn't deal any of the young arms.
   69. Darren Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:18 PM (#2120272)
I stick by my statement that those Yankees deals make the Red Sox look bad. The Red Sox had the bullets to make either trade and would have been helped by either one. I have to say, I'm severely disappointed, not the Yankees were able to make a huge deal (they will always have the resources to do so) but that the Red Sox didn't make the deals they could have.

I will defend them this much: there is no guarantee that anyone is going to want the deal you are offering, even if you offer good deals. You may be doing a reasonably good job and end up with no deals. I just have a hard time seeing that as the case here.
   70. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:19 PM (#2120275)
What hole does Craig Wilson fill? How is he not wildly redundant on top of Wily Mo, Youkilis and Kapler?

Lidle is a weird thing. If he could've been had cheap, that was a Sox screwup.
   71. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:23 PM (#2120285)
the hole Nixon's injury just made.

Lidle was basicly free.
   72. AROM Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:27 PM (#2120294)
The Sox better have some damn good scouting reports if they're interested, because Shealy looks like he falls short of being a major leaguer.

I checked my park factors to see if anything screwy might be in play here, but what I used was CSPR as just a slight hitters park relative to the PCL, nothing extreme. The extreme park there is Albuquerque. So for whatever reason Shealy just isn't hitting that well. His MLE's from previous years look better:


2004: 262/332/452
2005: 279/337/462

So he's a decent bat, now 27, Daubauch a good comparison. By why on earth would YOU guys want him? He's not going to make Ortiz sit, and he's not as good as Youkilis. I don't think he's got the glove to help in the OF, though I could be wrong.
   73. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:28 PM (#2120295)
the hole Nixon's injury just made.
4th OF? Adding offense and defense and playing exclusively against LHP, I don't see a difference between Kapler and Wilson. The upgrade would have been tiny, at best - neither will play in more than 15-20 or so games down the stretch.
   74. Darren Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:28 PM (#2120296)
What OGF said WRT to Wilson. He comes in and takes Nixon's spot. At the cost of a pitcher with a 7.00 ERA, he's well worth it.

According to Cashman, he insisted on getting Lidle in the trade, so I don't think he was anymore 'free' than Abreu. Of course, together, they were both pretty close to free.

I'm really glad they came close on a lot of things. I was worried before I heard that.
   75. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:32 PM (#2120306)
I just don't see how Wily Mo / Kapler is any worse than Wilson / Wily Mo or Wily Mo / Wilson.

Theo did a really good job of getting depth on the corners this year. The result is that Craig Wilson and Ryan Shealy don't help the team.
   76. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:34 PM (#2120312)
The Sox needed pitching, mainly starting pitching. They didn't get it. To me, that's where the criticism fits.

Trying to block the Yankees is a sucker's game, and the Yankees filled needs where the Red Sox were already well-prepared.
   77. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:35 PM (#2120315)
I dunno, beyond Youk the options at first look pretty bad.

are we supposed to think Kapler's going to keep playing out of his mind like this?
   78. Darren Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:36 PM (#2120318)
Okay, let's say you're right, MCoA. At the cost of a replacement level pitcher (Jason Johnson? Abe Alvarez?), what would the harm have been? This guy is going to replace Williams/Melky/Phillips for the Yanks. Not letting them do that is worth a lot.
   79. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:41 PM (#2120334)
Okay, let's say you're right, MCoA. At the cost of a replacement level pitcher (Jason Johnson? Abe Alvarez?), what would the harm have been?
He doesn't have a position. He kicks the team mascot (Kapler) off the roster. Making a change that doesn't involve an actual upgrade is a good way to get nailed by unexpected externalities in the clubhouse.

Theo was very clear that the Red Sox do not take the Yankees into special consideration in building their team. I think he's right.
   80. Darren Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:43 PM (#2120344)
Trying to block the Yankees is a sucker's game, and the Yankees filled needs where the Red Sox were already well-prepared.

Blocking the Yankees would have got them Lidle for peanuts. Plus a guy with a .400 OBP. If that's not enough, it wouldn't have allowed the Yankees the 4-win improvement that is being bandied about. What's 4 wins worth? What is it worth if you subrtact it from the Yankees while adding 1-2 wins to your own team?
   81. Darren Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:46 PM (#2120350)
I'm pretty annoyed with this right now, but I think you're wrong here MC. I generally think blocking the Yanks is a fool's errand. I wouldn't want them to do it all the time. But in these cases, both of these trades were such no brainers, such complete talent ripoffs, that they made sense.
   82. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:47 PM (#2120353)
This guy is going to replace Williams/Melky/Phillips for the Yanks. Not letting them do that is worth a lot.
(a) I bet that Dave Littlefield, being a massive idiot, likes Chacon better than the Sox replacement level options.
(b) Wilson was not necessarily the only option there, and quite possibly they'd have gotten in on Shealy or somebody just as good.
(c) The Sox can't know up-to-the-minute what the Yankees are doing. It's not necessarily true that the Sox knew this was going on, or that they can be expected to know every move hte Yankees might make. Feasibility is the other problem - I don't think they can do what you're suggesting as a systematic thing, given how many wildly many trade possibilities are flying around.
   83. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:54 PM (#2120368)
I definitely think they should have been in on Lidle, and that looks like hte main big mistake that we can point to.

I don't think that spending on players who don't fit the roster in order to block the Yankees is a feasible or helpful strategy.
   84. Mattbert Posted: July 31, 2006 at 10:00 PM (#2120377)
The upgrade would have been tiny, at best - neither will play in more than 15-20 or so games down the stretch.
You're probably right, but I have a hunch that there will be more situations where having Craig Wilson available to pinch hit for somebody would make me feel better than having Gabe Kapler available to play RF in the late innings.

That's not even really the reason I wish the Sox had gotten Wilson, though. It's because Wilson simply has more value (to the Sox and pretty much every other team except Pittsburgh) than guys like Snyder and some of the other chaff currently taking up space on the 40-man. What's the worst case scenario? Wilson rots on the bench and forces Theo to try to slip him through waivers for pitching help after the deadline, or maybe you flip him for something more useful after the season's over. As for positives, it would've kept the Yankees from upgrading their bench and offered some additional insurance for RF since Trot is doing the gimp thing again and Pena's just coming back from the DL now.

I'm surprised Seattle didn't find a way to work out a deal for Wilson prior to giving up some decent young talent for Cleveland's bland 1B/DH platoon. I guess the M's just couldn't spare a thoroughly uninspiring starter that the Bucs so coveted.
   85. Mattbert Posted: July 31, 2006 at 10:05 PM (#2120393)
FYI, re: Shealy

The Colorado Rockies acquired left-hander Jeremy Affeldt and right-hander Denny Bautista from the Kansas City Royals for infielder Ryan Shealy and right-hander Scott Dohmann.
   86. OlePerfesser Posted: July 31, 2006 at 10:13 PM (#2120408)
If Trot is hurt--even for only a 15-day DL stint--the guy they should've been after is Matt Stairs. He can job-share with Wily Mo against tough righties, then can be an occasional starter at 1B or lefty PH once Trot gets healthy. And he cost little.

The Abreu acquisition made little sense baseball- or economics-wise.

But not getting anyone to firm up the rotation or bullpen when there are some below-replacement-level talents there is vexing.

Combined with Cashman's Brilliant Weekend (TM), it's OK to be a little frustrated right now.
   87. AROM Posted: July 31, 2006 at 10:15 PM (#2120411)
Royals find another reason to keep Justin Huber in AAA.
   88. Darren Posted: July 31, 2006 at 10:24 PM (#2120429)
(a) I bet that Dave Littlefield, being a massive idiot, likes Chacon better than the Sox replacement level options.
(b) Wilson was not necessarily the only option there, and quite possibly they'd have gotten in on Shealy or somebody just as good.
(c) The Sox can't know up-to-the-minute what the Yankees are doing. It's not necessarily true that the Sox knew this was going on, or that they can be expected to know every move hte Yankees might make. Feasibility is the other problem - I don't think they can do what you're suggesting as a systematic thing, given how many wildly many trade possibilities are flying around.


Point by point:
(a) That's a possibility. Or maybe he liked our guys more. Heck, maybe he's a real idiot and loves Abe Alvarez. We just don't know, so it's hard to judge.
(b) Sheally's nowhere near as good of an option as Wilson. He's not as good as a hitter and he cannot play the OF. If there were other good players the Yankees would have gotten for Chacon, I'd love to hear who they are.
(c) I find it hard to believe that any team dealing with the Yankees is not keeping the Red Sox updated, and vice versa.

Your defense of the non-deal here is based on a lot of assumptions that I don't agree with. But I will agree that if the Pirates just love Chacon, or if the Yankees had their pick of good OF they could get for Chacon, or if the Pirates kept their asking price very secret from the Sox, then the Red Sox could be excused here. I just don't think any of those things are likely to be true.

On the Kapler thing, I will grant that Sox have gone to great lengths to keep him on the team. But just because they have, doesn't mean that they were right to do so.

One last thing. Here's a comparison of the OF in question, by their ZIPS coming into the season:

Wily Mo .260 .310 .534
Nixon .294 .381 .499
Kapler .273 .322 .391
Wilson .266 .363 .482


When you consider parks and defense, I'd say Wilson's arguably the second best one of this group.
   89. OlePerfesser Posted: July 31, 2006 at 10:30 PM (#2120442)
I'd say Wilson's arguably the second best one of this group.

Then it's too bad we didn't snag him & trade Wily Mo for a decent SP, like Bronson Arroyo or somebody. ;-)
   90. Darren Posted: July 31, 2006 at 10:35 PM (#2120451)
OleP,

All joking aside, that would have been a very good move. I would have loved to use him as the center of a deal for a good SP (not Arroyo obviously for a number of reasons). LAA has those available and were looking for an impact bat.
   91. Mattbert Posted: July 31, 2006 at 10:57 PM (#2120495)
I would have loved to use him as the center of a deal for a good SP (not Arroyo obviously for a number of reasons).
Him being Pena or Wilson? I like having Pena's upside, but as I was trying to get at in #84, Wilson had value to the Sox not necessarily because he would contribute to the team directly, but because he should have value to somebody else. If you have a chance to acquire a decent power hitter for a pitcher who can't beat out Jaret Wright for a rotation spot, you pull the trigger and figure out what you can flip him for later. I'm optimistic that Theo could land someone better than Shawn Chacon if he was shopping Wilson.
   92. AROM Posted: July 31, 2006 at 11:14 PM (#2120523)
LAA has those available and were looking for an impact bat.

For Pena? What are you smoking and why aren't you sharing?

Stoneman would have traded Santana in a deal for Tejada. I'm pretty sure he could have had Carlos Lee or Soriano if he was willing to trade Santana for them (glad he didn't). I'm pretty sure Weaver was going nowhere period.

Plus we already have Juan Rivera, who is Wily Mo + ability to make contact + some defensive skills.

We don't need or want Pena's bat. Didn't the Angels hit enough balls over the monster last night to make that point clear?
   93. Darren Posted: July 31, 2006 at 11:18 PM (#2120527)
Sorry, ARM. I was under the impression that they were looking to trade pitching for hitting. It was just one example, but I guess the Angels juggernaut offense is all set with Garrett Anderson slamming the ball around the yard and covering ground in the OF.
   94. Mattbert Posted: July 31, 2006 at 11:27 PM (#2120552)
Pena would've hit those balls over the parking garage on the other side of Lansdowne. That's gotta be worth at least Weaver and Shields.
   95. Darren Posted: August 01, 2006 at 03:06 AM (#2120973)
No deal on Pena. We're keeping him. Besides, we don't need any stinking skinny punk pitchers. We have the ONE!
   96. Mattbert Posted: August 01, 2006 at 03:35 AM (#2121022)
Besides, we don't need any stinking skinny punk pitchers. We have the ONE!
Darren, I know you're having difficulty accepting it, but it's going to be three years this November since the Sox traded Casey Fossum. Don't let this become your white whale, buddy. It's just not worth it.
   97. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 01, 2006 at 04:01 AM (#2121050)
Pena would've hit those balls over the parking garage on the other side of Lansdowne. That's gotta be worth at least Weaver and Shields.
Did they ever get a measurement on Pena's ball? It looked like it carried the Coke bottles by about the height of the coke bottles, but I couldn't quite trust my eyes from the RF grandstand.
   98. Darren Posted: August 01, 2006 at 04:05 AM (#2121055)
That ball was mothertrucked.
   99. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 01, 2006 at 06:18 AM (#2121125)
I had to work all dya... missed everything.

Still... somebody wanted Lester?

FRAK YOU
   100. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: August 01, 2006 at 07:09 AM (#2121136)
David Ortiz.
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