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What do y'all think of the Lugo rumors? My take - if the trade happens - is that the Sox think Mark Loretta can't handle up-the-middle defense, while Lugo would be gold glover at 2nd. What are the Sox rumored to be offering?
That's MCoA's comment from the other thread. I think this could be right. Any reports on how Pedroia looks at SS? I'm also wondering whether the FO has decided Lugo's the long-run solution at SS, with Pedroia at 2B.
I dunno about Lugo longterm. He's rumored to be looking for 4/30 or 5/40, I believe. He could actually be worth that money given proper defensive estimates, but he's got no upside beyond it. The 06-07 free agent makret will make last year's look like a frickin' cornucopia, and Lugo might be able to get hte contract, but it won't be worth it. My guess, as such, is that Gonzalez and Cora are expected to stay on for '07 and work Petunia in, while Lugo would be a rental who guarantees draft picks.
...ah, just actually read the link. According to one of Edes' sources, I'm, like, wrong:One other thing - how much would you offer for Jason Schmidt? He's the double whammy - a legitimate star at a position where the Sox are running out replacement level players, analogous to Bobby Abreu for the Yankees. That's exactly the kind of guy you have to target. Edes says the Giants' demands are high:Obviously, if the Sox had to give up Lester or Papelbon, that would totally defeat the point of adding Schmidt for this year. Schmidt's obviously better than Lester, but the point of adding a starter is that he'd exile the Snyder brigade to Pawtucket where they belong. Given that, the best package I could see the Sox putting together would be something like Hansen/Bowden/Murphy, and that seems very unlikely to tip the Giants over the edge on Schmidt. The Giants are now 4 back in the west and wild card races, so they are a lot more likely to move Schmidt now than they used to be.
SOSH is down. That must mean there's some super hot humor I'm missing out on
On his diminished K-rate, I wonder whether that's diminished stuff (his STF rating per BProsp is 22, vs. 19 for his career, but well below his peak 36 figures in '03 and '04) or a change in philosophy. He's logged 144 IP this year, to a 3.18 ERA, and might just be trying to pitch deeper into games by "pitching to contact" more. (I dunno--have only seen two Giants games this year, neither of which involved him.) He is 33, however...
go play in traffic
Frida - what about A JOneS?
Unless Roger forces Houston's hand, I really doubt he's coming to Boston. He's getting paid so much money and would probably take a lot of talent
"Clemens would love to be dealt to the Red Sox, but doesn't want to antagonize his hometown by asking for a trade. Similarly, owner Drayon McLane, having won the furious bidding war for Clemens two months ago, doesn't want to alienate Astros fans by dealing Clemens. If Clemens could make a trade seem like the Astros' idea, he'd be all for it. And if the Astros got cover from Clemens and could say that a deal was made at Clemens' request, they'd make it. But since neither side is going to accommodate the other, Clemens is stuck."
This is frustrating.
Theo wanted to ask out Roger, but Roger already told Bobby who told Jessica who told Gerry that he'd go with him, so he totally can't be all, "I wanna go with Theo" becuz it would be so mean to Gerry, but Gerry likes Cash better anyway, but he can't tell Jessica because she's at her grandma's...
When PR attacks!
Seriously, and people ask how I can hate a fellow Longhorn in Clemens.
I still expect a league-average starting pitcher to be acquired sometime this afternoon, and I'm intrigued by Livan. He hates his current manager, apparently; if there's one guy who pitches to the level of his circumstances, it might be him. I'd take a chance on putting him in a pennant race and seeing what happened.
Let's say Houston gives up on this season. If so, they have little reason to want to pay the remaining $6 million on Clemens' contract. What they'd want is some set of low-level prospects who make nothing, and might turn out to be something. If multiple teams are motivated to land him, they can demand considerably more than that; but I'm assuming only one team is really making a serious move to get him at this point and the Houston FO, for PR reasons mentioned above, probably isn't actively shopping him to others.
If Houston hasn't given up on this season, they'll want either to keep Clemens, or to deal him for a set of cheap players who can help NOW. I don't think the latter will happen today.
Man, this is turning out to be considerably less exciting than expected.
Sorta like last year's deadline, when so much time was spent shopping Manny that there wasn't time or energy left to make a couple of marginal upgrades.
I sure hope Pantload looks good tonight.
If that's the case, Boston and Tampa Bay must have agreed on the players in a deal that may or may not include additional teams. Lugo was believed to be asking for $40 million over five years from the Rays."
The Providence Journal's Sean McAdam said on WEEI radio that the Red Sox have been in contact with Julio Lugo's agents to discuss a contract extension.
If that's the case, Boston and Tampa Bay must have agreed on the players in a deal that may or may not include additional teams. Lugo was believed to be asking for $40 million over five years from the Rays.
This on ESPN.com.
MLB TRADE UPDATE FROM THE MAG'S AMY NELSON
Three baseball sources say that Pirates RHP Kip Wells is on the verge of being traded to Boston, and that the two sides are ironing out details to get it done. A deal could be done at any minute, a baseball source says.
OTOH, for those of you who might trust two Primates together, you don't know Sam or me.
I could go for that Kip Wells deal provided what the Sox have to give up appropriately reflects that Pitt is selling way, way low on Wells.
Don't some sabermetrically literate folk work in this FO?
Also, since IT'S ALL ABOUT THE VARIANCE (TM), the logic of bringing in someone who is battling injury issues to solve injury problems seems a bit sketchy to me.
Isn't there a healthy-as-a-horse innings eater available at a modest price?
Kip Wells for Abe Alvarez, according to SoSH. I like it - Wells projects as better than Kyle Snyder.
So, well done there, SoSH...
And they said Craig Wilson to the NYY for Shawn Chacon - arrgh.
Never quite figured out why the Pirates were so sour on Craig Wilson - but he must have seriously pissed someone off. Casey ... Burnitz ... then Nady ... finally the trade for a proven mediocrity in Chacon ...
I've rarely seen any team so determined to keep a pretty decent bat off their field.
Never quite figured out why the Pirates were so sour on Craig Wilson - but he must have seriously pissed someone off. Casey ... Burnitz ... then Nady ... finally the trade for a proven mediocrity in Chacon ...
I've rarely seen any team so determined to keep a pretty decent bat off their field.
I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, but this FO's interest in Moving Big Pieces Around seems to prevent them from picking up the occasional Small Piece (at moderate cost) that can lead to a small upgrade or, at the least, provide some useful insurance.
Other than Andruw, I guess...
One of the prospects in the Lugo deal is Joel Guzman, according to ESPN. If that was TB's asking price, I'm glad the Sox didn't give up an equivalent talent.
Herald blog sez: Francona says he spoke to Epstein just before 4 pm, and Epstein said not to expect anything.
I dunno. I can't argue that the Sox had to make a deal, given how few players who could actually help the Sox were available. but, jeez, Kyle Snyder in the rotation and we make no trades?
But the Sox have Kyle frickin' Snyder starting regularly. They needed a starting pitcher, and I'm a bit frustrated they couldn't get one.
Strike the 'an' from the last sentence in #58, I guess. I'm glad they didn't ship off a Lester/Pedroia package or something along those lines. It's kind of a mystery to me why LA felt they needed Lugo to fill in for Kent so badly. I guess it got crowded at third with Betemit coming over from Atlanta and LaRoche continuing to develop, but it still seems like a steep price for middle infield filler. Lugo's better than that, obviously, but LA's situation implies they don't see him as more than that.
It's been a frustrating deadline. The Yankees have made some extremely positive moves, and the best thing that can be said about Boston is they didn't do anything dumb. The Sox don't really need Craig Wilson, but it never hurts to have another solid hitter on the bench, especially since the asking price was basically Jason Johnson or Kyle Snyder.
Says they "came close on a lot of things."
Talks about the importance of sticking to a long-term plan.
Remains the single most boring interview subject in the history of mankind.
both players would have done a good job filling a need, and kept the yankees away.
Theo could have put together better offers for both guys w/o affecting his ML talent (or nl talent( in the least.
He may have lost the division by his lack of moxie the past week.
I will defend them this much: there is no guarantee that anyone is going to want the deal you are offering, even if you offer good deals. You may be doing a reasonably good job and end up with no deals. I just have a hard time seeing that as the case here.
Lidle is a weird thing. If he could've been had cheap, that was a Sox screwup.
Lidle was basicly free.
I checked my park factors to see if anything screwy might be in play here, but what I used was CSPR as just a slight hitters park relative to the PCL, nothing extreme. The extreme park there is Albuquerque. So for whatever reason Shealy just isn't hitting that well. His MLE's from previous years look better:
2004: 262/332/452
2005: 279/337/462
So he's a decent bat, now 27, Daubauch a good comparison. By why on earth would YOU guys want him? He's not going to make Ortiz sit, and he's not as good as Youkilis. I don't think he's got the glove to help in the OF, though I could be wrong.
According to Cashman, he insisted on getting Lidle in the trade, so I don't think he was anymore 'free' than Abreu. Of course, together, they were both pretty close to free.
I'm really glad they came close on a lot of things. I was worried before I heard that.
Theo did a really good job of getting depth on the corners this year. The result is that Craig Wilson and Ryan Shealy don't help the team.
Trying to block the Yankees is a sucker's game, and the Yankees filled needs where the Red Sox were already well-prepared.
are we supposed to think Kapler's going to keep playing out of his mind like this?
Theo was very clear that the Red Sox do not take the Yankees into special consideration in building their team. I think he's right.
Blocking the Yankees would have got them Lidle for peanuts. Plus a guy with a .400 OBP. If that's not enough, it wouldn't have allowed the Yankees the 4-win improvement that is being bandied about. What's 4 wins worth? What is it worth if you subrtact it from the Yankees while adding 1-2 wins to your own team?
(b) Wilson was not necessarily the only option there, and quite possibly they'd have gotten in on Shealy or somebody just as good.
(c) The Sox can't know up-to-the-minute what the Yankees are doing. It's not necessarily true that the Sox knew this was going on, or that they can be expected to know every move hte Yankees might make. Feasibility is the other problem - I don't think they can do what you're suggesting as a systematic thing, given how many wildly many trade possibilities are flying around.
I don't think that spending on players who don't fit the roster in order to block the Yankees is a feasible or helpful strategy.
That's not even really the reason I wish the Sox had gotten Wilson, though. It's because Wilson simply has more value (to the Sox and pretty much every other team except Pittsburgh) than guys like Snyder and some of the other chaff currently taking up space on the 40-man. What's the worst case scenario? Wilson rots on the bench and forces Theo to try to slip him through waivers for pitching help after the deadline, or maybe you flip him for something more useful after the season's over. As for positives, it would've kept the Yankees from upgrading their bench and offered some additional insurance for RF since Trot is doing the gimp thing again and Pena's just coming back from the DL now.
I'm surprised Seattle didn't find a way to work out a deal for Wilson prior to giving up some decent young talent for Cleveland's bland 1B/DH platoon. I guess the M's just couldn't spare a thoroughly uninspiring starter that the Bucs so coveted.
The Abreu acquisition made little sense baseball- or economics-wise.
But not getting anyone to firm up the rotation or bullpen when there are some below-replacement-level talents there is vexing.
Combined with Cashman's Brilliant Weekend (TM), it's OK to be a little frustrated right now.
(b) Wilson was not necessarily the only option there, and quite possibly they'd have gotten in on Shealy or somebody just as good.
(c) The Sox can't know up-to-the-minute what the Yankees are doing. It's not necessarily true that the Sox knew this was going on, or that they can be expected to know every move hte Yankees might make. Feasibility is the other problem - I don't think they can do what you're suggesting as a systematic thing, given how many wildly many trade possibilities are flying around.
Point by point:
(a) That's a possibility. Or maybe he liked our guys more. Heck, maybe he's a real idiot and loves Abe Alvarez. We just don't know, so it's hard to judge.
(b) Sheally's nowhere near as good of an option as Wilson. He's not as good as a hitter and he cannot play the OF. If there were other good players the Yankees would have gotten for Chacon, I'd love to hear who they are.
(c) I find it hard to believe that any team dealing with the Yankees is not keeping the Red Sox updated, and vice versa.
Your defense of the non-deal here is based on a lot of assumptions that I don't agree with. But I will agree that if the Pirates just love Chacon, or if the Yankees had their pick of good OF they could get for Chacon, or if the Pirates kept their asking price very secret from the Sox, then the Red Sox could be excused here. I just don't think any of those things are likely to be true.
On the Kapler thing, I will grant that Sox have gone to great lengths to keep him on the team. But just because they have, doesn't mean that they were right to do so.
One last thing. Here's a comparison of the OF in question, by their ZIPS coming into the season:
Wily Mo .260 .310 .534
Nixon .294 .381 .499
Kapler .273 .322 .391
Wilson .266 .363 .482
When you consider parks and defense, I'd say Wilson's arguably the second best one of this group.
Then it's too bad we didn't snag him & trade Wily Mo for a decent SP, like Bronson Arroyo or somebody. ;-)
All joking aside, that would have been a very good move. I would have loved to use him as the center of a deal for a good SP (not Arroyo obviously for a number of reasons). LAA has those available and were looking for an impact bat.
For Pena? What are you smoking and why aren't you sharing?
Stoneman would have traded Santana in a deal for Tejada. I'm pretty sure he could have had Carlos Lee or Soriano if he was willing to trade Santana for them (glad he didn't). I'm pretty sure Weaver was going nowhere period.
Plus we already have Juan Rivera, who is Wily Mo + ability to make contact + some defensive skills.
We don't need or want Pena's bat. Didn't the Angels hit enough balls over the monster last night to make that point clear?
Still... somebody wanted Lester?
FRAK YOU
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