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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

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   1. alkeiper Posted: December 12, 2006 at 03:00 AM (#2258394)
The difference is that Drew is very good when healthy. Gagne, we don't know what the heck he'll do if and when he's healthy.
   2. Free Rob Base #4 Posted: December 12, 2006 at 03:05 AM (#2258404)
Also, Gagne was probably on steroids.
   3. Darren Posted: December 12, 2006 at 03:45 AM (#2258443)
The difference is that Drew is very good when healthy. Gagne, we don't know what the heck he'll do if and when he's healthy.

Gagne is the best reliever in the game when healthy.
   4. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 12, 2006 at 03:48 AM (#2258448)
Second best.
   5. Darren Posted: December 12, 2006 at 03:50 AM (#2258451)
Nah, Lidge was close, but 06 set him back. Gagne's the best when healthy.
   6. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 12, 2006 at 03:53 AM (#2258453)
"Nah, Lidge was close, but 06 set him back."

Well played.
   7. Darren Posted: December 12, 2006 at 03:55 AM (#2258456)
I knew you'd appreciate that.
   8. Darren Posted: December 12, 2006 at 03:57 AM (#2258457)
God, I just looked at Mariano's stats again. Ever since I got my hopes up that he was finished after 02, ugh! That's perverse, what he's doing there.
   9. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 12, 2006 at 03:58 AM (#2258458)
Hasn't he had 2 elbow surgeries? Can you expect him to still be the best after that?

Of course the Sox probably have the $6 mil available to take that risk.
   10. Darren Posted: December 12, 2006 at 03:59 AM (#2258463)
Hasn't he had 2 elbow surgeries? Can you expect him to still be the best after that?

Of course the Sox probably have the $6 mil available to take that risk.


Exactly. You can't expect anything of the sort, but it's a big risk/big reward deal. If you could expect that performance, you'd being paying twice that.
   11. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:01 AM (#2258466)
"That's perverse, what he's doing there."

That's pretty much exactly what my reaction was when I looked at his stats a few minutes ago, only on the complete other side of the positive/negative feeling spectrum.

If the Sox do sign Gagne, they should learn from the Dotel signing last year, make it a team option or a multi year deal. I mean, if its six mil a year, it might be not be worth the risk to sign him to two years, but I would fighting for a team option, even if that team option is like 10 or 12 million.

BTW, I believe Dotel has know said he would pitch for two teams for free and is pitching for neither one of them this year.
   12. Darren Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:06 AM (#2258471)
BTW, I believe Dotel has know said he would pitch for two teams for free and is pitching for neither one of them this year.

But to be fair, he's not asking either of them to pay him either. So, if he spends the whole year on the DL again, it'll be the same as if he 'pitched' for those teams for free.

More seriously, I don't put much stock in statements like "I'll pitch for X for free next year" or "it's not about the money" or "size doesn't matter."
   13. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:36 AM (#2258512)
I think Robothal reported that the Rangers were shopping Otsuka, looking for young pitching.

The Sox don't really have young pitching to trade (Hansen?), and I don't have any idea why the Rangers would trade one of their good pitchers. But he'd be a totally great option at closer if it weren't for all the reasons that the Sox won't get him.
   14. chris p Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:39 AM (#2258517)
otsuka's better than any of hte available closer options. if he's available for a reasonable price, get him.
   15. 1k5v3L Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:51 AM (#2258532)
well, otsuka isn't young anymore. and he suffers from migraine headaches which can land him on the disabled list. hardly the guy you overpay for in trades
   16. Darren Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:54 AM (#2258535)
I think Robothal reported that the Rangers were shopping Otsuka, looking for young pitching.

How young? The Sox have a few very young pitchers in the minors and they've got Delcarmen. And Hansack!
   17. Mister High Standards Posted: December 12, 2006 at 05:00 AM (#2258551)
But Hansack is going to be the closer.

What a mess this bullpen is. Sign DK and keep Super Bon Bon in the pen, where he belongs.
   18. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: December 12, 2006 at 05:07 AM (#2258563)
"What a mess this bullpen is."

Boston's bullpen is always a mess, which is what explains the Drew/Gagne Disconnect. Epstein is very good at evaluating hitters. Epstein is horrible at evaluating relievers. Ergo, Epstein's bosses give him a lot more leeway in spending money on hitters than they do in spending money on relievers.
   19. Mister High Standards Posted: December 12, 2006 at 05:11 AM (#2258570)
rgo, Epstein's bosses give him a lot more leeway in spending money on hitters than they do in spending money on relievers.


Which may be the exact wrong way to approach it. All though this wasn't a particularly good market for relievers, the SOx should just buy relievers and pay a premium because otherwise they get #### for production.
   20. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: December 12, 2006 at 07:27 AM (#2258643)
the sox may have gone harder after gagne if boras would have allowed him to pitch in front of scouts. so it's at least possible that his "stuff" hasn't returned, and that's why boras held him out.
   21. villageidiom Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:31 PM (#2258726)
Epstein has gone on record saying that there are very few relievers who can repeat good performance year after year, and that those few relievers are understandably not available. He has continued that it doesn't make sense to spend a lot of money on the bullpen because most of it will be wasted money.

Two things to that:

1. Well, with THAT kind of attitude, we're pretty much doomed to failure.

2. That being said I agree with him.
   22. OlePerfesser Posted: December 12, 2006 at 03:57 PM (#2258779)
What strikes me as odd is that they are leery about this small risk, but not about giving JD Drew, whose health is also in question...

With the mantra "it's all about the variance" audible in the background...

I agree w/ Darren it seems odd. In fact, it seems odder when you look at it this way: Drew is a high-variance player, and now you've committed major PT to him, and long-term at that. Granted that Wily Mo is still on the roster as a "hedge," I think you want to reserve your long-term, guaranteed, big-money deals for low-variance guys, in general, 'cause these contracts are difficult to dispose of if they go awry (see, e.g., Dreifort, Belle, etc.).

A one-year deal for a bullpen stud, OTOH, is a little different. You can pile up lots of high-variance guys for 'pen roles (while "stockpiling" position players is tougher and more expensive). The ones who are under-performing relative to expectations can be relegated to mop-up roles or, in some cases, discarded completely; the positive deltas can win you a pennant.

So, unless the Sox have an Ace up their sleeve (as Darren notes), walking away from Gagne might be the wrong move.
   23. Toby Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:59 PM (#2258866)
In other news, we have apparently signed Albert Castillo to compete for the job of catching Wakefield. It's in this mailbag.
   24. Josh Posted: December 12, 2006 at 05:13 PM (#2258876)
The difference b/w Drew being a good player when healthy and Gagne being a good player when healthy is that we know what kind of a player Drew will be when healthy. But, even assuming health in 2007, no one expects the old Gagne - people hope for a new, Trevor Hoffman-lite Gagne.
   25. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 12, 2006 at 10:49 PM (#2259267)
Kapler has retired and will take Alicea's old job as the manager of Greenville (Sally).
   26. wily mo Posted: December 13, 2006 at 02:40 AM (#2259517)
i am not a hedge!

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