The Dumber-than-Marcels: Free Agent Hitters
Last offseason I ran a short analysis of the available FA hitters and I concluded that the Red Sox should go after exactly none of them. Adrian Beltre looked like the one positional FA who would be a good gamble. I ended up getting talked into Carl Crawford over the remainder of the offseason, and that turned out less than well. I did, at the time, make a case against Jayson Werth that I still feel pretty good about. Given that we have three data points, sufficient to demonstrate that this method of analysis is nearly foolproof, I figured I should run it again.
The method is really simple – I’m doing a regressed weighted average of the value stats from Fangraphs WAR and CHONE WAR, and converting to a dollar value for a dumber-than-Marcel projection.
I’m looking at the three big FAs – Pujols, Fielder, and Reyes. My first conclusion is that folks need to stop talking about Pujols and Fielder as if they’re interchangeable. They are not, and it isn’t close.
Pujols +47 Bat -1 Run +20 Rep -10 Pos +3 Def = +59 Runs, $28M
Fielder +42 Bat -5 Run +21 Rep -12 Pos -5 Def = +41 Runs, $20M
Reyes +13 Bat +2 Run +15 Rep + 5 Pos -3 Def = +32 Runs, $15M
Fielder and Pujols are pretty close as hitters, with a small edge to Pujols, but Pujols is an acceptable fielder and baserunner, while Fielder is quite poor. It adds up to almost a $10M difference in their projections. Reyes looks like he could be an acceptable bet at the right price, but between his injury history and the BABIP fluke that drove his 2011 (.353 vs a career .314), I think Reyes is a significantly worse option than these numbers suggest.
I mentioned in the first offseason thread that the Red Sox could consider making a play for Pujols and moving maybe Gonzalez, Youkilis, or Crawford to make room. I am now convinced that would not be a good idea. These are the projections for Gonzalez, Youkilis, and Crawford:
Gonzalez +41 Bat -4 Run +22 Rep -11 Pos +7 Def = +55 Runs, $26M
Youkils +23 Bat +2 Run +17 Rep - 3 Pos +3 Def = +42 Runs, $20M
Crawford + 9 Bat +4 Run +20 Rep - 6 Pos +5 Def = +32 Runs, $15M
I enjoy the serendipity there – the Red Sox kind of already have a Pujols, a Fielder, and a Reyes. I have a lot of trouble seeing how they’d get value back for Crawford – his current projection would make him the third best free agent on the market, but no chance you’d get even a quarter of that value back in trade – or for Youkilis, who has been an underrated near-superstar for several years. And trading a $25M player is basically never a good idea for a team that plans to contend.
But what about DH? The other option, if the Red Sox want to go after a big bopper, is to make him DH. So, I ran the projections for Pujols, Fielder, and the other DH options on the market. I modified the numbers to give them all DH positional adjustments. (I’m assuming they’d play a few games in the field.)
Pujols +47 Bat -1 Run +20 Rep -14 Pos = +51 Runs, $24M
Fielder +42 Bat -5 Run +21 Rep -14 Pos = +43 Runs, $20M
Ortiz +22 Bat -5 Run +20 Rep -14 Pos = +23 Runs, $11M
Willingham +15 Bat -1 Run +16 Rep -14 Pos = +16 Runs, $8M
Making Pujols DH changes his projection by about half a win, although Pujols’ ability to fill in competently at other positions, in the case of injury, makes him a somewhat better option than these numbers suggest. I don’t know why the Red Sox would go for Fielder if they could get Pujols, and I don’t know why the Red Sox would re-sign Ortiz if they could add Josh Willingham. Willingham is a right-handed bat, which the Sox lineup badly needs, and his projection would be just about equal to Ortiz’ if we projected them to equal playing time.
I have a simple conclusion, then. If the Sox aren’t making any big trades, I like two options on the free agent market. Either go big for Pujols and make the new manager figure out a playing time / defensive rotation that keeps him and Adrian happy, or snatch up Josh Willingham as a full-time DH and save the club’s money to spend on pitching.
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1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 30, 2011 at 06:36 PM (#3982816)It's a 5/4/3/2 weighted average, with "2" as the regression-to-the-mean weight. In my spreadsheet, this means that I'm adding a regression component to the weighted mean of the Fangraphs and B-Ref batting, baserunning, and fielding numbers, but not to the replacement level and positional adjustments.
Based on the fact that runs scored per game dropped under 10 this year, I'm using a factor of 9.7 runs per win. Based on a guess projection of low salary inflation, I calculate projected $$ value at $4.6M per win.
I am assuming, looking over this, that Fielder will get a very large contract. If he's available for much less than Pujols, he becomes a more attractive option in theory. Even then, though, I really hate the idea of dropping that much money on a guy who's already a DH and is kind of a big fatty.
I also think these numbers suggest that Theo will make a big, big play to bring Pujols to Chicago.
+11 Bat -3 Run +16 Rep - 14 Pos = +9 Runs, $4M
Aramis Ramirez projects at about league average as a 3B, which makes him a below average DH.
2) Pujols has played a couple games at 3B, and has DH'd in interleague once. Fielder has DH'd several games.
3) The difference appears larger than it really is due to rounding. If I went to one decimal place, it'd be -10.5 for Pujols and -11.6 for Fielder.
What about the RF market? Pretty lean, it would seem.
At his first press conference, Cherington said that he expected Kalish and Reddick to compete for the RF job. I think it makes sense for the Sox to go cheap in right - they'll need an RHB caddy - and hope one or both of the kids develop. I don't like the idea of signing a free agent who blocks both of the club's best prospects.
Here's the dumber-than-Marcel for Beltran:
+19 Bat +0 Run +13 Rep -2 Pos -1 Def = +29 Runs, $14M
I think Fielder makes more sense than Pujols for the Sox. But I wouldn't sign him either. He's oscillated between being a 130 OPS+ guy and a 165 OPS+ guy, and if recent history has taught us anything it's that the Sox would most assuredly be getting the 130 OPS+ guy if they sign him for big bucks. Also, you'd have to wonder if being a full-time DH would reduce the incentive for Prince to keep his weight under control.
It seems pretty clear to me that the club's money would be better spent on pitching. Then use whatever's left to try to bring back Ortiz or sign Willingham to DH.
PeteAbe had the above note in the Extra Bases post about Mackinin and Sveum yesterday. Maybe I'm overreading it but I wonder if he has a source that tells him that they are moving forward on Ortiz and that a deal is likely or is he just guessing?
Andruw Jones too.
I'm not keen on the idea of the round version of Andruw Jones trying to cover right field at Fenway.
Ah, well... Have fun in MN, Mike!
If you could play him at 1B, I think he could be a 2.5 WAR player and worth the contract. He looks like a ~+10 bat, and should be avg. defensively.
I'd worry about putting him in the OF, though. The defense could get ugly.
Why would you project Willingham differently than Ortiz assuming they would be the starting DH? Are you suggesting that Willingham would get hurt and that would positively affect his value to the team? I'm missing something here...
The positional adjustment is based on position played and playing time. If someone who starts a full seasons of games at 1B would have a -10 positional adjustment, then someone who missed the first half of the season and then played a half season at 1B would have a -5 positional adjustment. In the numbers in the original post, I used the same positional adjustment for all the players, regardless of projected playing time. That was wrong - the projected positional adjustment for potential DHs should be adjusted for their projected playing time.
But, can he play 3B?
Montero's getting a majority of the DH time. You'd have to be comfortable giving Cuddyer 60 games at 3B.
2) Is Grady Sizemore's body capable of playing baseball?
3) I hate everybody not Pujols, that's my projection right there
I don't see him as any kind of fit in Boston, though, without either trades or undue roster disruption. For the right price, Fielder might make a fine DH choice. I doubt Pujols would want to move off 1B.
I don't know why I'm having such a difficult time grasping this concept, but I am. What you're saying is that the guy who plays fewer games is more valuable -- fewer negative runs -- than the guy who plays more games. I guess I'm confused as to why this adjustment takes place in the positional part of WAR, as opposed to the fielding defense portion. I can see it making sense for defense (although the DH part also throws a bit of a wrench in here, too) -- more games for a poor fielder, more accumulation of 'negative' runs -- but like I said, I can't wrap my head around the positional adjustment. Can you try and explain it a little differently?
Their "RRep" goes up the more games they play, more than their "Pos" goes down.
Think of the numbers this way. First you have Batting runs, which are calculated simply relative to league average. For every run better (with the bat) than an average player you are, you get a run, for every run worse, you lose a run. Baserunning and Fielding runs work the same way.
Second, obviously, an average player doesn't have 0 value. The Replacement Level adjustment now gives players credit for their playing time - it's the difference between replacement level and average. Over a full seasons, an average player is about 20 runs better than a replacement level player. So you get players who play a full season getting a +20 replacement level adjustment, and players who play less than a full season getting a somewhat lower replacement level adjustment. (A true replacement level player, who gets a full season of playing time, will get a +20 replacement level adjustment, but will also have a -20 value above average, to even it out.)
Third, you have to adjust for position. An average (or replacement level) shortstop hits worse than an average (or replacement level) 1B. This adjustment also has to be relative to playing time - an average SS is 15-20 runs worse than an average 1B over a full season, so he's only 7-10 runs worse over a half season.
My mistake in the above calculations was that I didn't adjustment the DH position adjustment for playing time. The DHs who project to play a full season of games should have a larger positional adjustment than the DHs who project to play less than a full season of games.
As JJ says, this doesn't mean that it's better for a DH to play fewer games - the positional adjustment is smaller than the replacement level adjustment. I had already given the 150 game DHs credit for their projected durability in the Replacement level adjustment, but I should have made the (somewhat smaller) positional adjustment relative to projected playing time as well.
Granted, he's hitting the market as a RF. And granted, he played 142 games in 2011 after a couple of major-injury years. But if you can argue a RHB in Willingham is better than a LHB in Ortiz, you could make the argument that a BHB in Beltran, plus someone who could be at least competent in the field, would be even better. Putting Beltran in a transitional role as RF/DH, splitting time with Kalish and/or Reddick in both spots, could work.
The drawback - and I have to state it before I go all-in on irrationalization - is that you might overpay both in AAV and years for Beltran. On AAV, it would be for paying RF prices for a DH; on years, anything beyond 2 is a major risk for a player with his injury history. Heck, one could argue that even 1 year is an unacceptable injury risk. But the market is also aware of his injury history, and his age. If the market has the same trepidation with Beltran that they did with Beltre (after Seattle), Boston might be able to put together an acceptable offer to both sides.
willingham wouldn't cut it in rf, right? beltran makes a ton of sense to me. you could essentially platoon reddick or kalish with lowrie or aviles with youk and beltran splitting time between 3b/rf and dh. to me, a huge key to 2012 will be to get right handed bats that can stay in the lineup, and the easiest way to do that is to open up the dh spot, at least part of the time. as good a hitter as ortiz is, i just don't see a spot for him on this club any more.
I just don't think the numbers work out to Papi being the best DH option for the Red Sox this offseason. Willingham projects as just about the same player, but right-handed and a good deal cheaper. Beltran projects as just about the same player, but with a good glove in RF.
$20-30 M p.a. for 6+ years for a DH?
That seems like a huge waste of resources.
You'd have to massively overpay Pujols to move off 1B, and even then I don't think he does it. I mean, if St. Louis would give him 220/8, you'd have to go at least 270/9, I'd think to make him move.
there are two things missing here. the first is that i think youk has shown that he has trouble staying healthy, especially last year when he was asked to play 3b. so, the option to have him dh should keep his bat in the lineup. second, the beltran option provides sort of a mirror image of youk, but in right. iow, he should also be able to stay in the lineup more if the dh option is available.
now, this all falls apart if they both need to dh for some reason, but this also falls apart if ortiz or another dh-only type is on the roster. with youk and beltran dh-ing part time, you only have to play lowrie/aviles part time at third. of course, you'd rather have them as backups ... so, having youk play every day at 3rd looks good on paper, but in practice, it's likely to end up as either lowrie or aviles being the full time 3b for september again.
expecting youk to play 140 games at 3rd is foolish, so if they want his bat in the lineup every day, they are going to have to choose between him or ortiz.
How often is this really done? Give a guy rest by having him DH? I only really watch the Sox, so it's an honest question.
i was surprised that arod hasn't gotten more time at dh--10 games last year, 12 the year before. vlad guerrero got a lot of time at dh in his last few years in anaheim--30 in 06, then 41, then 44, before becoming a full time dh (when he could even do that) in 09. joe mauer had been dh-ing in his days off behind the plate before this past year's disaster. i think the most interesting case is michael young, who dh-ed in 69 games this past year--less than a half of the season--and saw his offensive numbers spike.
the michael young case is interesting not only b/c of the offenseive spike, but also b/c of youk's positional flexibility. tell him to bring his 3b and 1b gloves to the park every day and be ready to fill in if need be, but that the most important thing he can do for the team is to be healthy enough to hit every day. combine that with a few role players that can hit a little if you play the matchups right, and i think it could work really well.
Yes, but the situation looks quite different when you don't just pull numbers and motivations out of a hat.
Are we now officially establishing that 3B is a need? That probably warrants a completely separate thread. If 3B is a need, then it would seem either that Youkilis becomes the DH - which shifts the solution away from Beltran entirely - or Youkilis should be traded. The other alternative is to get a backup who can share time, but I don't think we want to go get, say, Scott Rolen and have a repeat of Mike Lowell 2010. In concept it's easy to define what they need, but in reality it's beyond impractical to arrange something ideal.
vs RHP: Reddick/Kalish RF, Beltran DH
vs LHP: Beltran RF, empty spot at DH
Getting Youkilis his semi-rest seems like a good use of that spot, especially given the platoon splits of Aviles and Lowrie. So:
vs RHP: Reddick/Kalish RF, Beltran DH, Youkilis 3B
vs LHP: Beltran RF, Youkilis DH, Aviles/Lowrie 3B
our top prospect plays 3b, so it's not a long term need, but i think given youk's injury track record, having a good backup there is a short term need. fortunately, we have aviles and lowrie on hand, so i think everything sort of works out.
Willingham's certainly below average in the OF, but he's not horrible. He has a career -5 UZR/150 and -3 TZ/150 in the OF, and his arm seemed strong enough that he could play RF. A -5 OF is about a full win more valuable than a DH who can't play the field.
The other consideration is the draft picks--the Sox would lose a first rounder for Willingham, but likely gain a first rounder and a sandwich pick for Ortiz.
Yeah, but the Yankees have been carrying four or five genuine DH candidates for a decade now.
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