I think in a perfect world Aceves is the guy. There have been a few times (particularly lately) where Aceves was unavailable due to having pitched multiple innings the night before. That should not be a huge problem in the playoffs with half the starts going to Beckett/Lester and the offdays for travel between cities I think Aceves is likely to be available more than not.

I've never been a big fan of Bowden and Weiland did not show me much (small sample size obviously). I have been a fan of Tazawa since 2009 Spring Training when I put the Ramon Ramirez whammy on him. If he's right, I'd love to see him.

The other thing that will help is a return of Playoff Tito. One of the things he usually does in the playoffs is spread things out. Bard can go two innings if necessary and I think in the right scenario we'll see that in October. A situation where the final nine outs are divided as 5 to Bard and 4 to Papelbon seems reasonable and consistent with the way Francona typically manages in the playoffs.

I hope it's not the same playoff Tito who sticks with injured, ineffective starters too long, puts the previous day's starters into blowouts, or makes a terrible hitter the starting first basemen. Not that one please.

On the relievers, I think that the Sox are pretty content with what they have. If they weren't, I think they would have already given Bowden, Oki, or Atchison a shot. Those guys are all doing quite well in AAA.

They seem to be willing to use Morales in big spots, and it's hard to argue with the results they've gotten so far. We'll see if he holds up.

Wheeler and Albers have both been pretty good this year, with the former surging as the latter falls off. At least one of them will be in the mix. Beyond that, I could see them trying to find a place for Miller, whether it be long relief or as a loogy.

Aceves is the guy they'll bring in when it's 4-3 in the 5th and there are runners on and Lackey is huffing and puffing. (For whatever reason, this gave me flashbacks to Mussina's relief appearance in 2003 against the Sox after Clemens stunk. That whole game felt cursed right about then.) I don't love Aceves for high leverage late in the game, but I do like him for those moments.

Morales is nice in that his K rate is going to be there, so if there's a runner on 3rd or whatever, and it's close and late, his BB-rate doesn't hurt so much.

Wheeler is the one who really deserves the shot I think. His since injury/Pawtucket stint have been excellent and he has a history of success.

puts the previous day's starters into blowouts, or makes a terrible hitter the starting first basemen.

I don't understand the first half of this and the only one I can think of for the latter is Kotchman in '08 when the only option was Sean Casey who was toast.

In 2008 it was Mark Kotsay, and he started over Casey. I always thought that mess was Theo's fault - how do you build a playoff team where you're deciding between Mark Kotsay and Sean Casey as your first baseman?

WRT Tito, I am optimistic about his trigger in the playoffs. His career as a playoff manager seems much more guided by strategic decisions than his regular season maneuvering.

2#4--Sorry, it wasn't the previous day's starter, it was a starter who had 1 day of rest (Pedro 04, Game 7). My bad.

It would have been nice to have someone better than Kotsay or Casey for 1b in 08. But Casey had a .381 OBP that year and been a fine option that year. All of a sudden, once they had Kotsay, Casey's slow speed on the bases and his defense were unacceptable. They needed, instead, to go to Kotsay full time, who had played 1B only minimally and could no longer hit. It was a pretty indefensible move.

how do you build a playoff team where you're deciding between Mark Kotsay and Sean Casey as your first baseman?

Well, they did have Lowell at 3rd and Youkilis at 1st for most of the year - those guys were meant to be backups, not starters - but Lowell got hurt, what can you do?

Kotsay had a 92 ops+ in 2008, Casey 100. Defense and baserunning can make up that gap. The problem is that they were both bad, not that one was notably worse than the other.

What can you do? Trade for a better 1b, right? I admit I don't remember the trade market that year, it is possible Kotsay was the best available, I guess.

Casey was awful in September and not so great in August. My recollection is that Kotsay played very good defense for us that year. They also had Kotchman and I think it probably speaks to their assessment of Kotsay's defense that they went with him over Kotchman.

Joe C. is right though. The problem was Lowell getting hurt. Kotsay, Casey and Kotchman were all perfectly good backups but the problem is that like most backups, they had weaknesses that could hurt.

Kotsay looked very good playing 1B because he's a graceful guy with a nicely trimmed beard. If his defense really was better, then that's a good argument for him to be a late inning defensive replacement.

Kotsay had a 92 ops+ in 2008, Casey 100. Defense and baserunning can make up that gap.

Kotsay: .309 WOBA
Casey: .344 WOBA

That's a similar gap to the one between Casey and Bay that year.

Then there was Jeff Bailey and his .370 mark.

At least there was some chance that Casey had something left in the tank or that Bailey was actually a decent hitter. Kotsay had been a replacement-level player for 2+ years when they got him. He was done and installing him at 1B for every single game of the playoffs made no sense.

I think in a perfect world Aceves is the guy. There have been a few times (particularly lately) where Aceves was unavailable due to having pitched multiple innings the night before. That should not be a huge problem in the playoffs with half the starts going to Beckett/Lester and the offdays for travel between cities I think Aceves is likely to be available more than not.

Assuming Miller is not starting (I'm going with Lackey and Bedard as the 4/5 guys) he would be able to pair up with Aceves to cover long relief. Add Wakefield to the long relief mix and that is something the team has covered. Between the three of them any short stints by starters should be more than covered. This still does not account for a high-leverage 7th, or mid-level 8th/9th if Bard/Papelbon are tired.

Kotsay: .309 WOBA
Casey: .344 WOBA

wOBA isn't park adjusted. Park adjusted wRC+ has the gap at 93 to 105. That's a difference of about 10 runs in a season, which is certainly close enough for defense to make the difference.

By that point Casey was a statue who couldn't bend at the waist. His defense was unplayable. And he was so slow that he'd make Adrian Gonzalez look like Jacoby Ellsbury. He got thrown out at second at least once (and I think twice) on balls that hit the bullpen wall at Fenway (380 feet from home). He was a fine pinch hitter in a situation where you could immediately lift him for a pinch-runner, but he was not playable as a starter and especially not in the field.

Kotsay was not a great option, but he was the only option if they didn't want to try Bailey.

Isn't Manny Delcarmen available?

By that point Casey was a statue who couldn't bend at the waist. His defense was unplayable. And he was so slow that he'd make Adrian Gonzalez look like Jacoby Ellsbury. He got thrown out at second at least once (and I think twice) on balls that hit the bullpen wall at Fenway (380 feet from home). He was a fine pinch hitter in a situation where you could immediately lift him for a pinch-runner, but he was not playable as a starter and especially not in the field.

That was reasoning. I personally didn't see it. Yes, he was slow and not very nimble at 1b. But he didn't look "unplayable" to me. Kotsay's bat looked unplayable at 1B, and the numbers backed that up.

And if you're going to make a midseason snap-judgment like that--"Casey's unplayable! He must be completely replaced"--shouldn't you replace him with a guy who is playing great, like, say, Jeff Bailey?

shouldn't you replace him with a guy who is playing great, like, say, Jeff Bailey?

Perhaps. Or, better, you should trade for a guy who isn't a bad player. Since Bailey didn't make the playoff roster, and no trade happened, that's at least as much on Theo as Tito.

Love that the 2011 bullpen discussion has somehow morphed into a dissection of the Red Sox 2008 backup 1st basemen.

Love that the 2011 bullpen discussion has somehow morphed into a dissection of the Red Sox 2008 backup 1st basemen.

Would Kotsay be a better or worse LOOGY than Franklin Morales? My recollection is that he was actually a pretty accomplished pitcher in college.

Olerud would beat them all.

I'll stop with the 08 rehash. My bad.

I'll stop with the 08 rehash. My bad.

Oh, I wasn't calling it a bad thing at all, just funny.

FWIW, in 2008 I was dead certain that Lester would win us Game 7 of the ALCS. Just completely certain. I was way more worried Beckett would cough up Game 6, so when we stole Game 6 (after improbably stealing Game 5), I was just completely certain we'd win Game 7 and sneak our way into the World Series.

FWIW, in 2008 I was dead certain that Lester would win us Game 7 of the ALCS. Just completely certain. I was way more worried Beckett would cough up Game 6, so when we stole Game 6 (after improbably stealing Game 5), I was just completely certain we'd win Game 7 and sneak our way into the World Series.

Me too - that was a funny one. I was upset but they stole Games 5 and 6 and had won in 2007 as well. In hindsight , that loss galls me more than ever - I thought they would have given Philly a better shot that Tampa.

Me too - that was a funny one. I was upset but they stole Games 5 and 6 and had won in 2007 as well. In hindsight , that loss galls me more than ever - I thought they would have given Philly a better shot that Tampa.

Agreed, I really thought they had it after game 6. Game 5, however, was one of my top five favorite Red Sox games ever.

The answer to this question is so obvious to me that I can't believe Tito hasn't fully implemented Albers' replacement: Wheeler. As the President of the Free Dan Wheeler Club, consider his stats since coming off the DL May 21st (he was pretty awful before then...):

30 games, 32.2 IP, 1.65 ERA, slash line of .179/.226/.291, 27 Ks, 7 BBs.

Give him the 6th/7th when you need it, have Bard/Paps fill in 2 to 3 innings a time or two each series, have Aceves ready, and you've got four reliable guys in the bullpen.

I don't think the bullpen is a problem. I'm more worried about Youk's health than I am about the bullpen.

Add another hitless evening with 2 Ks to the totals in my previous post.

By the way, the Sox have now completed a very nasty stretch of their schedule (14 out of 17 on the road, and three games in two days at home against Tampa), 10-7. They were up two over NY at the beginning of this 17-game stretch, and they come home 1 game up.

Ortiz and Ellsbury missed part of the stretch, Youk is still out, Albers imploded...and they lost 1 game of their lead. They are now home for nine in a row, with some days off sprinkled in there. If they play well during this homestand (say, 6-3 or better), they can all but clinch a playoff spot.

It's amazing how little 2008 bothers me, and I really don't know why.

they can all but clinch a playoff spot.

I am assuming you are referring to the ever popular "mathematical" version of this, as there is simply no f*cking way this team misses the playoffs now. None. Too many combinations of good hitters and good pitchers to not squeak out a minimum .500 record from here on out and end up on 95+ wins, even while shutting it down; which of course they will do. (end point warning)If you take out the cringe inducing 2-10 start, they are playing at 66% clip, which is just awesome. It's all about health now. If they are healthy, they will meet Philly in the series.

Me too - that was a funny one. I was upset but they stole Games 5 and 6 and had won in 2007 as well. In hindsight , that loss galls me more than ever - I thought they would have given Philly a better shot that Tampa.

Oddly, I was not at all sure we'd give Philly a go of it in 2008--it had a 2003 vibe about it, in that we basically had 1 healthy, effective starter (Lester) and a whole heapload of question marks aside from Papelbon in the bullpen... And since Lester would have only been able to go Games 3 & 7 in the WS (IIRC), I thought we'd have almost no shot against the Phillies (despite the fact they had basically a lights-out Hamels + a Ballooning Brett Myers + Blanton as their top 3).

In 2003, I very badly wanted to get to the WS, but was not at all sure we'd have much left in the tank, regardless of who we played.

Game 5 of the 2008 ALCS was fun precisely because I can recall putting the TV on mute in the 5th inning and starting to edit a chapter of manuscript, and Mrs. TE and I basically ignored the TV for about 30 minutes, only to look up in the 7th inning and see we had scored...

Yes, I meant mathematical. If the Sox split their final 32, they'll be 96-66. For Tampa to catch a 96-win Sox team, they'd have to go 25-7, just to tie.

I think it galls me as we have not been close to the World Series since - times change I guess!

Even during his hot streak, Wheeler has allowed a ~700 OPS against to lefties. He's been a complete shutdown reliever against righties, and I'd like to see Wheeler pitch in precisely the sort of spot where they brought in Aceves last night - against top RHB with runners on - but I think Wheeler is part of the LaRussa plan, not a separate solution himself.

Even during his hot streak, Wheeler has allowed a ~700 OPS against to lefties. He's been a complete shutdown reliever against righties,

that's a perfectly cromulent 3rd reliever though, right? i'm with balboni ... the bullpen is fine. they have 2 dominant short relievers, a decent 3rd guy out of the pen, and a guy that can go multiple innings. if lester and beckett can give them 7, then they can run everybody out there on the other nights and should be fine. the biggest worry is youk's health ... although, if jed can stay healthy that's not a horrible stopgap. you'd like more offense out of 3b, but he looks pretty good defensively.

A 2009 Billy Wagner would do nicely. Heck, why not give the 2011 version a call? He definitely didn't look like he'd lost anything last year.

It's amazing how little 2008 bothers me, and I really don't know why.

I feel the same way. I think it's a few things;

1. 2004 and 2007. It's hard to get to pissed off that quickly after a couple of titles.

2. That team was beaten up at the end of the year with Beckett and Lowell hurt and shortstop and centerfield being kind of up in the air. Tampa was the better team at that point.

3. Between Game Four of the ALDS (Lowrie's walk-off hit) and Game Five of the ALCS there were a couple of really terrific moments to look back on.

4. I think all of us here are big enough baseball fans that we are able to admire what Tampa had done. They were a legitimately great story and stepping back even a little bit it is pretty easy to applaud the Rays.

2008 didn't bother me as much then. But as the years go by, it has bugged me more. They had a chance to cement themselves as a dynasty, and missing out in that way really stings. Plus, at the time, it seemed like Upton might be coming into his own and Longoria was making his first mark as a superstar. Neither has really continued that, so it just seems like a huge fluke.

Yes on Upton, no on Longoria. He's had an off year this year, but in 2009 and 2010 he was second in fWAR among hitters in baseball. Even including this year since 2009 he's 3rd in baseball in fWAR.

This weekend, another shoutout evening for Wheeler. His stats since coming off the DL on May 21st:

32 games, 34.2 IP, 22 Hits, 7 ER, 29 Ks, 7 BBs, 2 HRs allowed, 1.56 ERA, slash line of .177/.221/.282.

This is your third reliever. Add in Aceves, and you've got your four guys. Add in Miller to give you innings if you need it, and you've got your bullpen.

I saw Dan Wheeler pitch the other night – an interesting motion. He looks like he's trying to curl up into the fetal position before he unwinds and delivers. It must lull batters into a false sense that they've intimidated him.

39-BDC, please explain your handle. I don't get it.

Bob Dernier + dernier cri. Dernier is French for "last", and I think BDC had used a couple of other portmanteaus based on that before.

It's at least a more effective portmanteau than mine, which apparently just makes people think I'm from Alexandria, Virginia. Ah well, not gonna change it now.

On Wheeler, it's still just 35 innings. Anything can happen in 35 innings. For 35 innings, Matt Albers can appear to be your reliable 3rd reliever. Dan Wheeler's still a guy with a huge career platoon split, and I don't want to see him facing a lefty in a leveraged situation. It'll take more than a few hot months to make me think Dan Wheeler isn't Dan Wheeler, and Dan Wheeler is a pretty good reliever who can't be counted on to get tough lefties.

Wheeler would be a lot more useful if we had a good lefty specialist to pair with him.

Morales has been pretty ok...and could be paired with Wheeler to mix and match the team to Bard-Paps.

Speaking of the bullpen, Papi is just blistering the damn ball right now...:-)

Papi don't take noooo messin'.

Morales has been pretty ok...and could be paired with Wheeler to mix and match the team to Bard-Paps.

I think that basically the best the Sox can do with their current bullpen is R-L-R with Aceves, Morales, and Wheeler. Between those three, the Sox should be able to get the platoon advantage in most theoretical mid-lev PAs in the 6th or 7th innings, before turning it over to Bard and Papelbon.

Mixing an effective Jenks in there would be nice too, but I'm skeptical he'll be able to return and pitch well, if he can even make it back at all.

Yes on Upton, no on Longoria. He's had an off year this year, but in 2009 and 2010 he was second in fWAR among hitters in baseball. Even including this year since 2009 he's 3rd in baseball in fWAR.

You're right of course. I guess it felt like Longoria was morphing into a 1.000-OPS monster, but since then, though he's still been GREAT, he hasn't been that kind of hitter.

@MCA,

But Wheeler has three previous years of pitching much like this. Matt Albers, not so much.

Wheeler would be a lot more useful if we had a good lefty specialist to pair with him.

Is there a chance that Bedard could be that guy in the ALDS at least? If Lackey gets the #3 spot (and I think he's the guy unless Bedard very clearly takes it away) the Sox could use Bedard as a LOOGY. He's never really relieved though and he seems like a slow starter so I don't know if that's a good use of him.

Thanks, Matt, for interpreting my handle. I was thinking of 'Bob "L'année" dernière à Marienbad' for the next change, but that might be a bit much.

But Wheeler has three previous years of pitching much like this. Matt Albers, not so much.

Sure, and in those three seasons, Wheeler has been spotted against RHB. 2008-2010, lefties had a 775 OPS against Wheeler, and he had a FIP against lefties over 5. As I said in the post, I think Wheeler works as part of a hard platoon squad with Aceves and Morales, but he shouldn't be pitching to lefties in leveraged situations.

The only problem with going with Morales as part of a platoon situation is that I'm not convinced that Aceves isn't as effective against lefties. In 2011, LHB are hitting .191 against Aceves with no power. For his career, lefties are only hitting .210/.276/.317. I don't know about you, but when Morales comes in the game, I am not comfortable.

Just because Aceves throws with his right hand doesn't mean he can't get lefties out as well as Morales - indeed, because Aceves seems to get EVERYBODY out, I'm very comfortable using Aceves in multiple situations in the playoffs:

1) Lackey or Bedard struggle, throwing 100 pitches in 5 innings, and leave with a 5-4 lead. Aceves comes in for two innings, and gets it to Bard/Paps.
2) You've used Bard A LOT in the series, and you need help in the 8th inning.


Where Wheeler comes in might be: Red Sox lead 7-3 after six innings, but have been using Bard/Paps a lot in the series. You're trying to find a way to keep some gas in their tanks. You've got a couple of righties coming up for the Rangers or Yankees in the 7th, and Lester threw a lot of pitches. You bring in Wheeler in the 7th, tell him to get the first two righties out, and then you'll keep him in until he gives up two runners. If he does, then you go Aceves or Bard. But if Wheeler is getting guys out - and for of the season, he has - let him pitch until a couple of runners reach.

One of my few fears about this 2011 Red Sox team is that they will burn out Bard, Paps, and Aceves for the postseason. Because they are a lock to make the playoffs, I'd take advantage of the situation to give Wheeler higher-leverage chances to perform.

2) You've used Bard A LOT in the series, and you need help in the 8th inning.

I'm guessing if it's a close game in the 8th with Bard unavailable, assuming Paps is not toasty as well, Francona would go the LOOGY/ROOGY route and turn it over to Papelbon for a 4 or 5 out save.

Where Wheeler comes in might be: Red Sox lead 7-3 after six innings, but have been using Bard/Paps a lot in the series. You're trying to find a way to keep some gas in their tanks. You've got a couple of righties coming up for the Rangers or Yankees in the 7th, and Lester threw a lot of pitches.

It would have to be about 125 pitches or else Francona is sending Lester/Beckett back out there in the 7th.

Is there a chance that Bedard could be that guy in the ALDS at least? If Lackey gets the #3 spot (and I think he's the guy unless Bedard very clearly takes it away) the Sox could use Bedard as a LOOGY. He's never really relieved though and he seems like a slow starter so I don't know if that's a good use of him.

There is no way that you can start Lackey over Bedard. That would be absolute insanity. But more likely than anything they will both be in the rotation anyway, so this is moot. This team has never used a 3 man rotation.

There is no way that you can start Lackey over Bedard.

Lackey is lined up to start vs NY, TEX, TB, TB, BALT, BALT. Those first four starts should be a fairly solid indicator on whether or not he can be trusted.

According to Extra Bases, the missing bullpen piece may be Clay Buccholz, if he's healthy in time.