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   101. Darren Posted: August 10, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4205556)
Given an entire season, it's not unreasonable to see Ciriaco with 4 WAR.


Yes, it is unreasonable and that's the whole problem with what you're talking about. Ciriaco has a long history of playing baseball. Nothing in it suggests he's anywhere near a 4-WAR player. No team is going to trade for him because every team has players who are as good as him. No one's giving you a B prospect for him because B prospects have a chance to become 3+ WAR players on the cheap.

And your lamenting that teams were too willing to pay big money rather than try to find cheaper options might have applied about 25 years ago. Today, teams are obsessed with getting cost-controlled players. They've basically ended the 'trade multiple prospects for a rental' trades that were common back then.

Are you serious or just kidding about all this?
   102. Dale Sams Posted: August 10, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4205557)
Well this has been fun at least, finding woobies and questioning baseball doctrines is about all that's left in the Red Sox 2012 season.
   103. Dale Sams Posted: August 10, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4205569)
Today, teams are obsessed with getting cost-controlled players.


Like Bailey: 3 mill and counting. For Reddick.
Punto: Old, 2 years 1,5 mill each
Aviles: 1.2 mill
Y. Betancourt: 2 mill

Everyone has players like him? Well it sure seems dumb to run Alexi Ramirez out there every day for 6 million a pop instead of taking a chance this all-but-free player will do better than .631 OPS. White Sox had to trade to get someone better than 34 year old Orlando Hudson's 37 OPS+

Smart teams are obsessed. And a huge part of my point is that a lot of teams arn't smart.

edit: And that's just SS's and 1 3B I've brought up. I can drag even stinkier 2Bs into the equation too.
   104. Darren Posted: August 10, 2012 at 04:07 PM (#4205574)
So you're not kidding?
   105. Darren Posted: August 10, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4205579)
It's sounds to me like you're advocating either:

a) teams should only pay attention what a player has done this season in the Major Leagues, regardless of how few AB's that player has

or

b) teams should be able to perfectly predict the future so that they never have a season like Ramirez's and capture flukily good ones like Ciraco's 80+ PAs.
   106. Dale Sams Posted: August 10, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4205581)
So you're not kidding?


Am I kidding that I think Pedro Ciriaco is better than more than a few SS's, 2B's? No.

Do I think he's better than Aviles overall? Yes.

Was my ascertation that if Aviles is a 3 WAR player, and I think Ciriaco is better than Aviles, then given a full season, Ciriaco is a 4 WAR player based on very faulty logic? Almost certainly.
   107. Dale Sams Posted: August 10, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4205588)
b) teams should be able to perfectly predict the future so that they never have a season like Ramirez's and capture flukily good ones like Ciraco's 80+ PAs.


c) Teams should look at streaky players. See if they have an oddball story (like Nava...so mad he got hurt.) Determine what they think the streaky players ceiling is and look at their own rosters. And go from there. If Billy Beane has a Pedro Ciriaco in his minors and he's running Jemile Weeks out there every day, then he's an idiot.

GMs make stupid, horrible mistakes every day. The group-think here makes...not as worse (I dont think much of a lot of GMs) mistakes every day. There's no reason the immediate assumption that Ciriaco is replacement-level trash that every team has, could not be one such group-think mistake.

On a side-note: Teams shouldn't be paying Alexi ####### Ramirez 10 million dollars in 2015.
   108. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 10, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4205591)
teams should be able to perfectly predict the future so that they never have a season like Ramirez's and capture flukily good ones like Ciraco's 80+ PAs


They'd have to do even better than predicting the future on an annual basis; they'd have to predict it on a monthly or even weekly basis. To get a full season of Ciriaco's 80 PAs, you'd probably need to stockpile at least a half a dozen Ciriacos. And you'd have to swap them in and out of the lineup precisely so that the one who was going to be hot at any given time was the one who happened to be playing. And even if your FO did have the precognition skills needed to accomplish this feat, it wouldn't leave much room for real prospects in your minor league system.

I'm fairly confident that given a full season of playing every day, Ciriaco would be exposed as the offensive black hole that his minor league career suggests he is. I really have no idea how much defensive value he'd provide.
   109. Dan Posted: August 10, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4205592)
Comparing Nava to Ciriaco is comparing apples to oranges. Nava has a minor league record of hitting at every level while being a bit old doing it since he got a late start in pro ball after playing in an independent league for a few years. Ciriaco has basically no record of sustained offensive production at any level ever. Nava's lowest level of production in his career at any level in the minors is .813 at AAA. His overall OPS in his minor league career has been .911. Even at AAA, his worst level, his OBP has been .378.
   110. Dale Sams Posted: August 10, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4205608)
Small nitpick to bolster my case for Ciriaco: Don't forget that not only did he open our eyes in Spring Training (remember?). He's also had a good year (for a SS) in Pawtucket. That's not much more than 80 PAs in the majors...but it's a little something.
   111. villageidiom Posted: August 10, 2012 at 05:13 PM (#4205638)
I'm fairly confident that given a full season of playing every day, Ciriaco would be exposed as the offensive black hole that his minor league career suggests he is. I really have no idea how much defensive value he'd provide.
So would that put him as better than Iglesias in 2013, or worse?

Right now we're hoping Iglesias can eventually develop into an offensive black hole. He's 22 or so, so he might get there (or better) some day; but we shouldn't expect him to get much better at 23 in MLB, certainly when he can't yet hit at 22 in AAA. Ciriaco is 26 and having a good offensive year at all levels. I fully expect even a regressed Ciriaco would be a much better hitter in 2013 at the MLB level than Iglesias.

Right now the hype on Iglesias' D is in the neighborhood of Ozzie Smith. We should not expect that any more than we should expect Ciriaco to hit like Papi, but let's ignore the hype on both. Ciriaco gets similar accolades to Iglesias in the minors, but saying he's the best defender in the Diamondbacks system or the Pirates system could be damning with faint praise, for all I know about their systems at the time. Regardless, the same scouting that says Iglesias is excellent is also saying that Ciriaco is excellent, so we should probably consider Iglesias to be the superior of the two (given the positional choices made at AAA this year) but Ciriaco isn't leagues behind.

To me that sounds like Ciriaco in 2013 shapes up to be a better hitter and better defender than what we should expect out of Mike Aviles, and a better hitter and worse defender than Iglesias. Which one is best overall in 2013 is, I think, an interesting question. (That's why I asked.) The lack of consensus is not shocking.
   112. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: August 10, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4205677)
If Billy Beane has a Pedro Ciriaco in his minors and he's running Jemile Weeks out there every day, then he's an idiot.

Is this really a good example? Jemile Weeks is almost two years younger than Ciriaco and he hit .303/.340/.421 last year in 96 starts for Oakland. Ciriaco hit .231/.243/.300 in 71 starts for Indianapolis. The year before that he was by far, by a huge margin, the worst hitter on the Reno Aces. (teammates: John Hester, Brandon Allen, Cole Gillespie, Doug Deeds, Drew Macias, Jeff Bailey, Ryan Roberts, Carlos Corporan, Chris Rahl, Mark Hallberg, Eddie Rogers)

   113. Swedish Chef Posted: August 10, 2012 at 05:47 PM (#4205682)
Ciriaco is 26 and having a good offensive year at all levels.

He has one walk. One.
   114. The District Attorney Posted: August 10, 2012 at 05:56 PM (#4205693)
Ciriaco could easily be the "longest-necked player to have 3 WAR in a season", which is every boy's baseball dream.
1969 and 1970 -- that's two consecutive decades!
   115. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 10, 2012 at 07:28 PM (#4205789)
But 3 WAR is not a particularly impressive total for a decade.
   116. Answer Guy Posted: August 11, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4206335)
..and now Middlebrooks is reportedly out with a broken wrist, possibly for the season.
   117. Dan Posted: August 11, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4206441)
Well Dale, I hope you're happy, you got your wish to see more Ciriaco, and all it took was breaking WMB's wrist :(
   118. villageidiom Posted: August 11, 2012 at 07:04 PM (#4206465)
He has one walk. One.
I stand corrected. I thought hits counted as offense. My bad.
   119. Darren Posted: August 11, 2012 at 07:07 PM (#4206467)
Yeah, nice job Dale. Way to break Middlebrooks wrist.
   120. Swedish Chef Posted: August 11, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4206488)
I stand corrected. I thought hits counted as offense. My bad.

Well, everything is good with his offense, he just have to continue to hit .340 as in his first 90 PA. What can go wrong with that?
   121. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: August 11, 2012 at 10:53 PM (#4206595)
Not his name, Dan!
   122. Dale Sams Posted: August 12, 2012 at 02:38 AM (#4206655)
Abrahams thought this meant we'd see more Valencia.
   123. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: August 12, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4206762)
From earlier:

In fact the lack of walks has largely become a team wide issue


Isn't this a league-wide issue? It makes me wonder if we're seeing less walks because teams are trying to exploit the previous shift toward "working the pitch counts".
   124. villageidiom Posted: August 13, 2012 at 03:29 PM (#4207378)
Well, everything is good with his offense, he just have to continue to hit .340 as in his first 90 PA. What can go wrong with that?
You must have missed the part where I didn't project a .340 average. I merely stated he was having a good offensive year in 2012, which in fact he is, a fact you were disputing. You appear to be encouraging me to consider a regressed Ciriaco in 2013, which I expressly did, immediately after the part you found fault with.

I am in no way saying Ciriaco is the future at SS for Boston. I am saying I think he's a better bet at SS in 2013 for Boston than Iglesias is. And where Iglesias is at right now, that shouldn't be considered high praise.
   125. Swedish Chef Posted: August 13, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4207410)
You must have missed the part where I didn't project a .340 average.

Well, if he doesn't hit .320, he's ####.

You appear to be encouraging me to consider a regressed Ciriaco in 2013, which I expressly did, immediately after the part you found fault with.

No, I encourage you to consider the worth of a ball player that can't take a walk to save his life. He couldn't even walk at AAA. He lives and dies by his BA, and a BA accumulated in 91 PA is worth next to nothing for projection.
   126. karlmagnus Posted: August 14, 2012 at 08:06 AM (#4207823)
The last shortstop we had who couldn't take a walk to save his life was Nomar. Just saying...
   127. villageidiom Posted: August 14, 2012 at 09:45 AM (#4207867)
No, I encourage you to consider the worth of a ball player that can't take a walk to save his life. He couldn't even walk at AAA. He lives and dies by his BA, and a BA accumulated in 91 PA is worth next to nothing for projection.
When I say I think he's a better bet than Iglesias at SS for Boston in 2013, what part of that makes you think I'm not considering that?
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