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1. Textbook Editor Posted: May 19, 2010 at 07:31 AM (#3536646)Look, I realize Papelbon v2007 is not walking back through that door, but the upside of Papelbon v2010 I don't think is as high as the upside of Bard v2010, and now that we're in this hole, we have to start throwing the ball down the field a bit--take some risks--to come back... One of the "high risk/high reward" upside plays--for me--is to flip/flop Bard and Papelbon, or just deal Papelbon and go with Bard if you think Paps' ego can't take a relegation to the 8th inning.
If there's a way to team-close, I'd be for that as an alternative--I just don't want all "save" situations going to Papelbon this year.
And believe me, I do realize--looking at stats, etc. this makes me seem nuts. But I've watched Papelbon close games the last 1+ years, and he's slowly losing his specialness; teams have figured him out; the downward slide has already commenced--it's just a matter of when we decide to get off now.
Look, obviously I think he's still good at baseball. The "worst player in baseball" schtick is just exaggeration. But I strongly, strongly believe that he is well past his sell-by date, and it's only a matter of time before it becomes very clear that he's completely gone bad. Dump him to an NL contender for a mid-level prospect or two.
Would you prefer Carlos Marmol, he of the 2.45 ERA since he went to the pen, accompanied by 5.5 BB per 9?
Will Paps be the Best Closer Ever? Naah. Is he Highly Useful to a playoff team? Yup.
I'm sorry but this is insanity. No, he's not 2007 Papelbon but he is still better than most. If the Sox completely drop out of the race then he's a chip you can get a lot for but there is absolutely no reason to rush him off. He actually makes the Red Sox better and I don't think making Bard the closer is going to appreciably change things for 2010. This seems like a good time to point out that Monday was his first blown save of the year.
Look, no one is saying he is what he was but how many players are hurting the Red Sox more than he is right now? 20? 21? Youk, Pedroia, Drew, Bard and I guess there is a case for Delcarmen and Scutaro...who else has been better for the 2010 Red Sox? And you want to deal this guy for the equivalent of Michael Bowden and maybe Brandon Moss if the trading partner is willing to throw him in? Great, so the Red Sox role out Daniel Bard as closer with Hideki Okajima (who has legitimately been terrible) and Ramon Ramirez or Manny Delcarmen as their primary set up men? THIS is the plan?
My guess is he won't be worth whatever contract he signs after 2011 but pushing him out the door is foolish. The 2010 and 2011 Red Sox are likely much better with Jonathan Papeblon than without him.
D Bard, career BB/9: 3.9.
I'd be a lot more concerned about Papelbon if it weren't for the 10-ish appearances right before that Yankees game. He had finally started throwing the splitter and slider. He was also getting a lot of swings and misses on those and his fastball.
the 'papelbon is not good/is injured etc' insanity comes out for about 2 days after he lets up some runs, and then is curiously silent while he puts up a sub-2 ERA for the next 2 months.
Yep. And he seems to sit at a slightly lower rate, 93-94 instead of 94-95, without the aforementioned occasional 97-98
"oomph" offerings. Unless this is just a radar gun thing, but I don't think so.
His first swinging strike to Winn last night was at 91...
If it's accompanied by 18 K/9, yes, I would. Paps' K/9 has plummeted all the way to 6.8. Yes, those numbers should move towards each other as the season goes on, but still this is more than some temporary blip on the radar-he obviously isn't the same pitcher.
In early '07, when he had 4.5 BB/9 thru the 1st 20 innings, he also had 12.5 K/9, which was evidence that he still had his stuff (and his ERA was still below 2). If his current rates in those categories (and HR/9 too, which is around 1.4) don't alarm you, I don't know what else to say.
Nope-Bard routinely is 3-5 MPH faster on the same gun.
I watch Papelbon this year, and he's had the best splitter I've seen since 2007, combined with his 2009 fastball (that is, his worst fastball by command, but still a very good fastball). I think he's going to take a little bit of adjustment to get this new version of himself together, but in the end he'll be one of the best relievers in baseball. I'm happy to put money on this.
If I had time, I'd mention something about signature significance, but thehellwithit.
I think part of the problem is there seems to be a subset of fans who feel that he is expendable when the reality is that even 80% of the 2007 Jonathan Papelbon is still very very good.
As for the off speed stuff it has been excellent and consistent all year. This is what made Monday night so startling.
Papelbon's preseason ZiPS projection: 2.85 ERA, 10.6 K/9
Papelbon's rest-of-season ZiPS projection: 3.18 ERA, 10.0 K/9
This isn't a debate where the numbers should be a significant factor. I'm willing to acknowledge that there might be something wrong that can't be concluded from the numbers, and I think the discussion should be had around what we know about Papelbon that could allow us to question the projections. But citing the numbers doesn't make much sense - they're only useful, at this point, as reflective of underlying problems that one can observe and describe.
I'll echo this as utter, complete insanity.
And this as gospel. I expected better from BTF posters than "OMG two lousy outings in a row! Trade him before his next time out!!! AAAAAAAAAA."
The people who have been slagging David Ortiz are now turning to Papelbon. You guys just want something to worry about.
Last year the out-there theory was that Papelbon was pitching thru a substantial arm injury. I would guess now that no one still clings to that view of 2009.
1) I'm a big Papelbon fan. I think he's tons of fun, and I want him to do well. People have been shitting all over him for a year, even though he's been one of the best relief pitchers in baseball over that time. When he goes, you're all gonna miss him. (Plus he's going to be replaced by some Lucchino-approved automaton who plays the game the right way and wants to go up there and help the club out.)
2) I'm weirdly invested in a particular understanding of baseball statistics. Lots and lots of interesting baseball questions are not particularly amenable to statistical analysis for sampling reasons. It's been shown, for instance, that without a huge sample, a right-handed player's platoon split numbers are not predictive of his future platoon splits. This doesn't mean all RHBs have the same platoon splits - that's crazy - rather, it means that 150 PA a year vs. LHP don't make up a sufficient sample to measure RHB platoon variation. The only way to get at RHB platoon numbers, with only a few exceptions, is observation - watch the guy and determine whether he's got a peculiar platoon split, and why. Relief pitching is another one of these areas - relief pitchers are close to impossible to project because they throw so few innings, but real changes in ability happen all the time. So if you want to analyze a relief pitcher in season, you can't turn to statistics, you need to turn to observation.
Worst ~20 inning stretches of Pap's career (as a closer) in terms of K-W, per year:
2006: Jun 26-Aug 6: 23-7, 3.2:1
2007: Apr 18-Jun 12: 28-10, 2.8:1
2008: May 9-Jul 4: 26-6, 4.3:1
2009: Apr 11-May 9: 22-11, 2:1
2010, as noted, 1st game to now: 1.5:1
Sure, small sample size flukes may not be repeatable; yes, the correlation between ability and the stats is not perfect at small samples, and remains so (less so) at larger ones. But, past some point, deviations from past performance become significant-signature significance. I chose K-W because that's the one stat combination which is the most indicative of ability (I'm ignoring the 14 hits in 20 innings precisely because that is the one number most likely to be insignificant). Fact remains he has never, as a closer for 5 years now, had this poor control combined with a low (for him) K rate. And if you go and look at his pitch location graphs it's not hard to make the connection between his crap command (and lower velocity) this year and the results.
As for the implication that I (and others) are "insane" to make note of these trends, and just want an excuse to get rid of him, get bent. As for the implication that he'll immediately snap back to his 06-08 form, nothing to see here, move along, well as a Sox I hope it happens, but I doubt it. Sure, things could be worse, and we could be stuck with the corpse of Trevor Hoffman, but that's a distracting straw man.
Apparently they got a couple of runs off some hack that NY threw out there...
Part of the issue with Paps is emotional. 2007 Paps was the king of the 11 pitch, easy out save...and you just KNEW he get it done. 2009 and 2010 version of Paps is the leave 2 runners on, 31 pitch, one guy with an 11 pitch AB, but still get the job done is the most heart stopping fashion. Albeit, last night Scutaro had alot to answer for. He owes both the starter and closer an apology for botching 2 very easy plays.
Look the team is good, they are just not all playing well at the same time. If they can get to June above .500, surely there is an 11-3 run in this team in June which should set them on their way. Tampa can't be caught, NY however has some issues of aging and injuries which will be interesting to see how that plays out through July and August.
There was media coverage last year of his arm slot change to lessen the strain on his shoulder. The over-reliance on fastballs was a corollary to this: the off-speed pitches put more stress on his arm, and didn't seem to have the same bite out of that arm slot. But he hasn't gone back to his pre-should problems motion, has he, even as he has tried to re-introduce the breaking pitches into his reportoire? Maybe that explains his hesitancy to use them when push comes to shove against someone like A-Rod last night.
How could you NOT cling to that view? It's clearly true.
Right, they're different arguments.
Papelbon is still a good closer. I think the stats support that, especially if you compare him to other closers throughout the league. Perhaps, the stats also say he is trending in the wrong direction and won't be good before the year's over. That's a lot of projection, and I think it's basically guesswork to say he's going to be bad. If he remains as the pitcher he is or has been in the beginning of the season, he's definitely a useful player on a contender.
That said, the Sox might not be a contender this year, although the Yanks are falling back to the pack a bit. But it's possible that the Sox, at a certain point, could be thinking more about 2011 and beyond. In that case, Papelbon's name should be in all kinds of trade rumors. Bard is the heir apparent. Papelbon is going to test free agency soon and wants a big contract. Bullpens are not the hardest things to construct. So, yeah, I can see why you'd want him to be traded.
That's just it isn't it? There is still a somewhat of a black art to getting this right and sometimes you just don't really know. We can all see from the stats that he is still more effective than most closers, however if the club isn't contending and he's had a pretty good season, I say sell "high" and try to get something nice in return.
That, I think, is where the frustration comes in with this guy. I'm ready to cut bait on him too, but only if you can get value for him. Which, in MLB, you cannot. So he's the Red Sox closer. And he's pretty damned good at that.
Well, no...now putting together a good one...
The issue I was trying to get at is how good Papelbon is. On one extreme, we have Fly arguing that Papelbon is in fact so bad that the Red Sox should cut bait now because they can't expect quality going forward. Toward the middle we have JDF, arguing that Papelbon has changed in some important way, such that he's now significantly worse than he has ever been. Probably someone out there thinks Papelbon is around as good as he was in 2009 - a step up from JDF's evaluation, as I read it. Next you've got me, who thinks that Papelbon isn't as good as he was in 2007, but should, with his improved breaking stuff, be better than he was last year. I think I represent the top end here.
I guess you could say I poisoned the well on debate by characterizing opposition as people who think that Papelbon sucks - though that was the tenor of the game thread - but I was just trying to be light there. I've been accused of straw-manning a couple times in this thread, but I really don't see it.
B. If the Red Sox want to make the playoffs, let alone go anywhere in the playoffs, they need a good Papelbon, so at this point they cetainly will need to just cross their finger and pray that the dramatic change in K/BB value so far is more luck than decline of skills. After all, the Yankees are currently badly banged up , with three of their starters (two of them up the middle guys no less) out of commission for awhile at least . and just about the whole team banged up (of their 9 guys to open the year, only Gardner have not have some sort of injury scare). so the next 6 week is basically the moment of truth for these teams.
C. If say.. worse case comes to reality... that the Red Sox not only couldn't take any advantage of the Yankees' current sitaution, and instead got pulled 10+ games out by July, and Papelbon's K/BB continue to look pedestrian. then you probably need to start thinking about dumping him on some idiot GM like Ed Wade.
EDIT: To respond to JDF's #22, it looks to me like the big drop isn't from 2009 to 2010, but from pre-2009 to 2009. Beginning with last season, Papelbon doesn't have the same kind of fastball command he had as his peakety-peak, and this is a good demonstration of that. The thing is, though, Papelbon was pretty great last year, even if that huge drop in K/BB rate had signature significance. I don't see much, in that chart, to make me worried that Papelbon is significantly worse than he was in 2009 - when, again, he was pretty great.
Projection systems are notoriously conservative. Would any projection system have caught say Roberto Alomar's sudden decline? Thus they are of limited significance in dealing with possible changed circumstances.
Actually FWIW, we're barely 1/4 of the way through the season.
If Papelbon's circumstances have changed, this will not show up in the projection systems. This is not, however, because of some correctable flaw in projection systems - it is not the case that we could build a better system that had a "signature significance for K/BB rate drops" factor. This is a limit of statistical analysis of baseball itself. Given the samples we're working with, we cannot conclude that every time a player has a start as slow as Roberto Alomar's 2002, that he has declined like Roberto Alomar. The numbers alone simply do not allow us to draw such conclusions responsibly. The projection systems are doing the best they can do, with the limitation that they can only use the numbers and samples that exist. Projection systems are conservative because the only responsible way to do purely statistical analysis is conservatively.
If we want to notice real changes in ability in anything resembling real time, we can't use the numbers, we have to use our observation.
If we want to draw conclusions just from Papelbon's numbers, we have to recognize that the best universalizable analysis of the numbers produces his rest-of-season projection, which makes him one of the handful of the best closers in baseball. If we want to talk about changed circumstances, we're moving out of the realm of numbers into the realm of observation.
He doesn't get nearly as many swings and misses as he used to, period. Here's pitches in the zone, for instance:
Z-Contact% for 2007: 75.5%, 2008: 82.3%, 2009: 83.1% 2010: 88.6%
-this leads to longer AB's. And more pitches = more chances to throw non-strikes, which = more BB's. And of course, less K's and more hits.
The data back up my observations: He doesn't throw as hard, nor with as much "late life". His split may be on the mend. He'll need it.
I like Bard a lot, but his fastball seems a bit straight to me. We'll see.
edit: clarity
BOSTON -- Raising the question of who will catch Daisuke Matsuzaka next elicited a strong reaction from catcher Jason Varitek.
Asked Wednesday night whether the Sox had approached him about catching Matsuzaka after the Japanese right-hander was rocked Monday for the third time with Victor Martinez behind the plate, Varitek said, “No, why?’’
When it was pointed out that Matsuzaka’s only good outing -- 7 innings, 1 run, 0 walks, 9 whiffs -- had come with Varitek behind the plate, the catcher flared.
“I think you’re making it more than it is,’’ he said. “Everybody’s creating all sorts of stories in all different directions.
“Let our guys play.’’
I hate the "C", but that's some nice captainly behavior right there. This backup role is really suiting him well.
Well, yes, they ARE conservative when dealing with changed circumstances because those changes are not inputs. But they are also CORRECTLY more conservative when dealing with small samples than your garden avriety fan who wants to bench someone after a month. How many fans have touted Papi's future OPS as 700 not too long ago? So it cuts both ways. And the key word in your paragraph is possible changed circumstances. In fan-speak, possible often means "I see odd data, let me propose a change in circumstances; it can't be random".
Tell that to the 50% of teams that are really struggling with their bullpens. It seems like spending a lot of money on it doesn't help all that much. I think of the Angels and their dominant bullpens of half a decade ago with few expensive guys, and the current experiment in fail with Fuentes, Shields, Rodney, and Speier (yes, still Justin Speier) making 5 million+ each.
The Padres have one of the best, and cheapest bullpens (playing in a pitcher's paradise must help). Some teams seem to make it look easy. Some can't find anyone who can put out a fire, no matter how many trades they make or free agent dollars they spend.
Of course they said the same thing about Paps' heater, but it moved around quite a bit (and still does, albeit 2-3 MPH slower).
Often on blogs and message boards positions are exagerrated for effect or purpose. _I_ haven't said, or implied, that there's a 100% chance that he's not going to be same pitcher he was, but the chance is definitely not zero; the various trends, (see post #42) are pointing towards the higher end of the spectrum. Don't prop a straw man up there pretending that I/you/we are dealing with absolutes here.
On Pap, I'm middle of the road in Matt's discussion. I can see his argument that he has been better with the splitter when he's featured it. But, I think the more important stat is tfbg's swings and misses. He just hasn't been getting them since 2007. Now, it's quite possible that this year's percentages so far are a blip, and that they'll go back to 08/09 levels, but I don't see how he gets back to 07 level.
I don't see how you could trade Pap without getting something major in return unless you're completely out of the pennant race. Even with getting something major in return, it would be tough. But I'd let him go in free agency, of course.
Here's some quotes from this thread about Papelbon, from almost exactly one year ago. In the months following this discussion, Papelbon had about a 1.53 ERA, high K/BB, and avoided the DL. Maybe his current trends are more worrisome than the trends people were seeing last year, but don't you understand how some of us think this is more 'boy who cried wolf' considering we are talking about someone with an impeccable track record and is on the good side of 30 years old.
5/24-5/26
“His new mechanics blow and he should scrap them immediately. He's lost everything that made him ridiculously good last year due to the changes.”
“I would trade Papelbon straight up for pretty much anything, right now. I just want him off of the team while he still has any value whatsoever.”
“Please, all of you, tell me what happened to that wicked splitter Paps used to throw a year or two ago?”
“We are not getting too down on him. His performance is way, way off from his career norms . . . But his indicators are all much worse than a year ago. He's had only 4 1-2-3 innings this season in 20 appearances. He's morphed into heart attack closer territory. I'd say that's more than reasonable cause for concern.”
“I have little confidence that Paplebon will stay healthy for any length of time.”
“SOMEthing has changed, and is wrong, and his performance has suffered hugely.
He's done as an elite closer”
“I think he has something relatively serious, physically wrong with him.”
--not all of these are Fly
And I admit that I'm over the edge on Papelbon. But I really do want him gone. And I HOPE I lose my bet about < 21 saves this season.
That's why I'm quite sure it's not his call. That was never offered. The Sox SAID it was offered, so it wasn't obvious that they thought he was seriously hurt after his "shoulder strengthening" a few years ago. That way, they can trade him, and he'll still have value to some other team in the future. Both sides benefit by pretending he wants to go year to year.
Who is "they"? I never said that. The 07 Pap had a four seamer that was said to be quite difficult to "pick-up"
for the batter, that seemed to come out his uniform and just explode on them.
My eyes tell me that Paps no longer has that "corkscrew" action on his fastball. I know I'm referring to, and exaggerating,what in reality is a CF camera-induced optical illusion, but the movement appears to me to more right to left and flatter, rather that sort of clockwise and up action. We're seeing a different optical illusion nowadays.
2006: 14.5%
2007: 17.7%
2008: 12.4%
2009: 11.0%
2010: 10.8%
Papelbon was a dominant reliever in both 2008 and 2009. What the fuss here?
I think we've all agreed that Papelbon v.2007 is not walking through that door. Papelbon v.2008 and Papelbon v.2009 are still among hte best relief pitchers in the world - that's how amazing he was in 2007.
2006: 48.1, 81.6, 74.1
2007: 42.4, 75.5, 67.1
2008: 64.4, 82.3, 77.2
2009: 60.4, 83.1, 77.2
2010: 56.4, 88.6, 77.5
The other thing that's happening, leading to a higher Z-contact number, is that batters have swung at somewhat fewer of Papelbon's strikes so far this year than they did in 2008 and 2009 - he's getting called strikes on pitches that hitters very well might miss if they swung.
EDIT: since there's a disparity in the numbers - Papelbon's percentage of swinging strikes per pitches thrown has declined since 2008 (that's the numbers in post #56, taken from SwStr% on Fangraphs), while his percentage of swinging strikes per pitches swung at (that's the numbers here, looking at the inverse of Contact%) has remained the same since 2008. The drop in SwStr% from 2008 to 2009 is not a function of batters making less contact, but a function of Papelbon throwing fewer strikes, and batters laying off more of his pitches. He's missing bats at the same rate from 2008-2010, but after 2008 he started missing the zone quite a bit more.
Ok, but why is he throwing fewer strikes? Maybe its partly because Pap/Pap's Battery Mate know a higher % of these strikes are getting hit? I think that's part of the reason. I really do.
He's got a plus 4 seamer now. He used to have a plus-plus. But, MCoA, I like what he seems to be doing by going for the splitter K's a little more often. He's adjusting.
BTW, an better split makes a better fastball, and vice versa. When he "lost" his splitter, that may have caused some
of the Z contact rise we've been seeing. But my eyes also tell me his heater aint what it was.
I know he has said he wants to set the market for closers, but for that he needs someone to pay him. I don't see anyone paying him Cordero or Rivera money.
Maybe at 10 mill a year he is a good asset isn't he?
Obviously if Papelbon pitches poorly, he won't get that much. but if Papelbon pitches poorly, why would the Red Sox want to pay him $10M?
The basic position on Papelbon, around here, is that closers get paid more than they're worth on the free agent market, and that the Red Sox agree with us internet stat dorks on this point. Thus, it is highly unlikely that the Red Sox will have the highest bid on Papelbon if he becomes a free agent.Yes, that's perfectly reasonable. But - that started in 2009, not 2010. there's no 2010 drop in the swinging-strike rate or the contact rate. and Papelbon was pretty great in 2009.
I can't imagine he would only get $10 million. K-Rod got 12, Nathan got 12, Lidge got 12,...I've got to think he gets into that group.
They also do something that bothers me - they use the "pitch value" stats as if they tell us things that we didn't already know. Jonathan Papelbon throws his fastball all the time. The value of his fastball tracks directly the results of his pitching. We know that Papelbon has a bad FIP this year, which means that his fastball value is going to be low. And indeed, it is. This isn't revelatory. The "pitch value" stats - especially the fastball value numbers - are mostly just a repurposing of FIP.
He's also been hung with 4 of the team's 30 losses this season.
I was just thinking, just how often does a closer have more losses then every starter but one(sure, I cheated he's tied with Buchholz, but Buch has 10 wins so 4 losses looks heaps better)
At least he's fair about it. When he blows a save he's such a good guy that he's willing to take the loss instead!
Now he won't even do that!
Hey...a win's a win, a save is a save. I'll take it for sure, but still..ugh. At least the FB is still pretty fast, but man, he can't hit the corners for shiite muslim.
19 IP, 14 H, 7 R, 3 HR, 2 BB, 17 K
The only worrisome number there is the homer rate, and that's a number with a ton of variability in it over two months of relief pitching. Papelbon looks good.
And that's 21 saves! Who should Fly have to sponsor?
I was trying to look for old Red Sox closers, as a hint to get some perspective, but they're all sponsored already. Bill Campbell is sponsored. Heathcliff Slocumb is sponsored. Joe freakin' Sambito is sponsored.
And unfairly yet again, this is the same guy who started off his postseason career with a remarkable 25 innings or so of scoreless baseball, and that streak ended in hideous fashion last October. There's some sense that the magic show is over and that he'll be regressing rather abruptly. There's also the general idea that given his loud statements about wanting to get Rivera-like money once he's FA-eligible, that he's outta town no later than the end of the 2011 season anyway.
Papelbon, in 2007, was the best relief pitcher in the world. Like almost everyone who's ever peaked like that, Papelbon was unable to remain at that level, and he has merely been an All-Star closer since. Since he's no longer untouchable, Papelbon has had occasional runs of ineffectiveness and managed to blow a postseason save. This has led to lots of pants pissing.
Hey Joe. Sorry, I didn't see this post.
Name your guy. Congrats.
23.1 IP, 17 H, 8 R, 3 HR, 3 UIBB, 22 K
Maybe this line has something to do with it. Three guesses what it represents:
32 G
33.1 IP
27 H
20 BB
2 HBP
5 HR
1.410 WHIP
4.59 ERA
Just cut him already. Christ.
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