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   1. villageidiom Posted: May 16, 2016 at 11:48 AM (#5222149)
This is one of the few occasions where one can describe being an accountant as "very fortunate".

(Says the actuary.)

I was going to make a point about how McHale wasn't a starter until his 6th season, being behind Cedric Maxwell on the depth chart, whereas Bogaerts was made a starter probably a year before he was ready. But then I remembered how much I hate when I make an analogy for a specific point and people pick it apart because it isn't literally 100% the same. Like if I mentioned talent coming out of Hibbing, MN, and compared McHale and Bob Dylan, and then some asshat feels compelled to say "That's a horrible analogy. Dylan is a musician, and McHale plays basketball. They're totally different."

I totally agree on Bogaerts being somewhat under the radar. The thing is that I think everyone knows Bogaerts is having a good year. Seems like every game recap I hear from friends is "Bradley and Bogaerts had a great game" or "Ortiz and Bogaerts" or "Shaw and Bogaerts" or "Porcello and Bogaerts". He always seems to be in the mix. But yeah, I don't think anyone thinks of Bogaerts as being on pace for a Troutian level of value.
   2. BDC Posted: May 16, 2016 at 11:57 AM (#5222156)
I was noting in an All-Star thread yesterday that Bogaerts should be the All-Star starting SS for the AL this year – not that he's a cinch to be elected, but based on 2015 and '16 together and seeing him as the most established of the younger stars (the elder statesmen – Tulo, Rollins, Hardy, even Andrus – being just not as good as the younger guys).

   3. bbmck Posted: May 16, 2016 at 11:58 AM (#5222157)
1+ position player WAR per 20 games, min 20 games:

Player            WAR/pos OPSRfield Rbaser Age  PA
Jose Altuve           3.2  190    3.0    1.2  26 179
Adam Eaton            2.9  133   15.0    0.2  27 171
Manny Machado         2.4  178    2.0   
-0.7  23 163
Nolan Arenado         2.2  144    7.0   
-0.2  25 163
Xander Bogaerts       2.2  138    1.0    2.6  23 172

Robinson Cano         2.1  153    3.0   
-0.7  33 166
Mike Trout            2.1  168    0.0    1.3  24 160
Dexter Fowler         2.1  164    2.0    1.2  30 156
Travis Shaw           2.1  149    5.0    0.4  26 156
Ian Kinsler           2.0  132    5.0    0.3  34 166

Aledmys Diaz          1.8  178   
-1.0   -0.2  25 126
Logan Forsythe        1.8  157    3.0    0.4  29 123
David Ortiz           1.7  188    0.0   
-0.2  40 148
Brandon Guyer         1.2  186    0.0   
-0.8  30  87 

Provided by View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/16/2016.

Per 21: Springer, Marte, Piscotty, Pillar, Harper, Braun
Per 22: Donaldson, DanielM, Zobrist
Per 23: Frazier, Pedroia, Prado
   4. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 16, 2016 at 01:21 PM (#5222293)
Be nice vi, it's National Accountant Day!
   5. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 16, 2016 at 01:30 PM (#5222308)
Adam Eaton 2.9 133 15.0 0.2 27 171

2014 +12 rfield as a CF
2015 -14 rfield as a CF
2016 +15 rfield as a RF

Quite the variance. Also, he's got a 3.04 RF/9 (lgRF/9 is 2.14) - really similar huge disparity in chances to what Kiermaier saw last year (3.23 RF/9 to 2.20 lgRF/9).

How much do these fluky high outfield defense years come down to simply a lot of balls being hit to the fielder?
   6. villageidiom Posted: May 16, 2016 at 01:41 PM (#5222330)
Be nice vi, it's National Accountant Day!
Accounting Day, not Accountant Day. If you do any accounting today, I'll be nice. ;-)
   7. villageidiom Posted: May 16, 2016 at 02:07 PM (#5222359)
How much do these fluky high outfield defense years come down to simply a lot of balls being hit to the fielder?
Based on the Inside Edge classifications at Fangraphs, 2015 was Eaton's career high in routine fielding opportunities, and career low in converting them. He also misplayed more "likely" and "even" opportunities than in 2014.

This is just one data point from 2015. In his defense the ball looked like it had funny movement during its flight, but still he should have had it. I don't know if this was typical of his miscues.
   8. TomH Posted: May 18, 2016 at 10:36 AM (#5223749)
in other news...
Sox are "on pace" (with no regression) to break the MLB mark for most 2B in a season. 102 in 39 G = 424 per 162 G. Record is 376, by 2006 Rangers.

Of course Fenway boosts doubles a lot, so Sox have been "on pace" for this mark in previous years. From 2012-2015, the Sox have hit between 282 and 363 two-baggers. This looks like a year where they will be in the 300s.
   9. John DiFool2 Posted: May 18, 2016 at 01:14 PM (#5223929)
I think the Sox are tied for that record.
   10. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: May 18, 2016 at 11:06 PM (#5224413)
Those 80s Celtics team were so loaded with talent

Yet the Lakers managed to take 5 titles in the 80's. Though I grew up a Red Sox fan, following my dad and grandfather, I was raised in SoCal in the 80's and was nurtured on Showtime and Chick Hearn. That was an amazing rivalry.

Oh and Xander is awesome and if they should extend him if they can, he's the real deal.
   11. jmurph Posted: May 18, 2016 at 11:09 PM (#5224416)
Prior to the season, if asked to predict JBJ's season HR total, would anyone have gone higher than 10? He hit his 7th tonight.
   12. Darren Posted: May 21, 2016 at 07:53 PM (#5226150)
Too bad they didn't send him down for a month and a half in 2014.

On a brighter note:

Betts .276 .322 .500
Pedroia .300 .357 .471
Bogaerts .339 .392 .492
Ortiz .311 .391 .642
Ramírez .317 .364 .460
Shaw .313 .382 .544
Bradley .342 .411 .624

That's a nice looking lineup. If you asked me a couple years ago what Betts and Bogaerts would be like I'd say one will hit for excellent average and OBP with some pop, the other will hit for power but may strike out. But the opposite ones.
   13. Bad Fish Posted: May 21, 2016 at 09:45 PM (#5226203)
Right now this is a potent line up. Four of those guys are well under 30, so hopefully it will stay potent for a long time. At the quarter mark - JBJ = MVP or Ortiz?
   14. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 21, 2016 at 09:58 PM (#5226205)
Bradley somehow has a negative defensive WAR which makes no sense. If I have to pick between the two I'd take JBJ so far but as I noted to me it's Bogaerts so far. He's doing it on both sides of the ball and while Bradley has been great I think Bogaerts has been better.
   15. Darren Posted: May 21, 2016 at 10:52 PM (#5226229)
Haven't delved into the numbers but JBJ has made a lot of misplays. Really bad ones--bobbling balls, letting balls past him, yanking throws. His negative numbers don't shock me. I wanted him in RF and Betts in center but not because I thought Betts was better. I just thought it wasn't fair to move Betts again and that JBJ's arm made him an asset in RF.
   16. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 21, 2016 at 11:16 PM (#5226248)
Yeah, I thought his arm in right made that useful as an alignment. Agreed about the throws, he seems to have had a bunch of offline throws this year. I'm still surprised by the negative number though, he's run down everything out there.
   17. Norcan Posted: May 22, 2016 at 12:07 PM (#5226402)
Bradley's defensive WAR doesn't surprise me. Big plays in either direction, whether it's robbing a home run or turning a single into a triple, which he's done twice already, have big impacts on WAR. Add in some other misjudgments on plays and early erratic throwing, which he's sorted out as his throws lately have been incredibly fast and accurate, and a negative defensive WAR is understandable. I don't think it's applicable going forward since he doesn't appear to have lost any range and his arm is as great as ever. I think the negative defensive WAR is accurate but still fluky.
   18. covelli chris p Posted: May 22, 2016 at 11:25 PM (#5226783)
re: bradley's defensive WAR ... i think there was a ball that dropped in (maybe an error) that really swung his numbers. he's still really good out there ...
   19. Darren Posted: May 22, 2016 at 11:48 PM (#5226788)
Should we start talking about what extensions for the 3 B's would look like?
   20. jmurph Posted: May 23, 2016 at 10:02 AM (#5226874)
Should we start talking about what extensions for the 3 B's would look like?

I feel totally unqualified to even hazard a guess but I just want to endorse the conversation. Obviously Betts and Bogaerts should cost more, given their age. Bradley is relatively old for a breakout guy, right?
   21. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 23, 2016 at 10:08 AM (#5226881)
The thing that I think makes all three guys ripe for an extension is there youth. The Sox can buy out a couple years of free agency for all three guys and still have them hit free agency in their 20s. That should make them more amenable to a deal (as Trout was).
   22. Darren Posted: May 23, 2016 at 08:04 PM (#5227464)
I'll hazard:

Bogaerts: 4/$70MM with a team option for $30MM, FA at 29 at latest
Betts: 5/$70MM with a team option for $30MM, FA at 30 at latest

or if both sides want to go long-term:

Bogaerts: 9/$200MM, FA at 34
Betts: 10/$200MM, FA at 35

JBJ: He's locked up through age 30, Super 2 next year. They'll wait 2 years before committing.

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