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Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

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   1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 23, 2011 at 01:15 PM (#3756468)
One possibility I should note is that I don’t know what offensive environments these systems are projecting. Depending on how many runs CAIRO expects to be scored in the league, and how it measures Fenway’s park factor, it may be that CAIRO is actually (relative to the other systems) underprojecting the Red Sox’ offense, but it’s showing up on the pitching side. That is, if CAIRO projects the Red Sox to be playing in a more congenial hitting environment than the other systems, the differences between the systems might not all be in pitching, and CAIRO’s hitting projections, which we basically in line with the others, might in fact be more pessimistic. And that could be the case for any of these systems.

I should also be clear that I'm not saying CAIRO is wrong. Who's right and who's wrong is unknowable before the season, and a difference of four team wins is well within normal expectations of the differences between projection systems. But our best guess at the quality of the team should start with an average of the different systems, and my analysis here suggests that the average of the different systems will have the Red Sox in the range of 96-100 wins.
   2. tfbg9 Posted: February 23, 2011 at 01:51 PM (#3756481)
Hmm...looking at the Tek and Salty projections.

Maybe the Yankees will cough-up Cervelli?

ZIPS seems to like the Sox stars a lot, save Youks.
   3. SG Posted: February 23, 2011 at 03:43 PM (#3756560)
It's probably the park factor I'm using for CAIRO that makes the Red Sox staff look relatively pessimistic. Of course, it's the same reason CAIRO seems to like many of the Red Sox's position players more than the other systems.

There's a fair amount of discrepancy in the various projections' run environments. For example, the Bill James projections seem to assume a league that will hit for a collective wOBA of .343, in a league where pitchers will have an ERA of 3.28, which doesn't make sense for obvious reasons.
   4. tfbg9 Posted: February 23, 2011 at 04:16 PM (#3756601)
it's the same reason CAIRO seems to like many of the Red Sox's position players more than the other systems.



Does it? No snark...seems about the same for the first 5-6 of the better hitters...
   5. SG Posted: February 23, 2011 at 04:42 PM (#3756624)
247/320/403, 237/309/396, 230/308/382 – Salty
279/349/399, 262/334/366, 272/341/381 – Scutaro
298/393/525, 286/386/498, 280/382/505 – Youkilis
256/332/459, 238/325/422, 243/322/413 - Cameron

I was thinking of these four guys, only one of which probably qualifies as one of the 5-6 better hitters though.
   6. Valentine Posted: February 26, 2011 at 07:01 PM (#3758794)
A couple weeks ago I ran a quick estimate based on the PECOTAs and ended up in the 92-95 win range. PECOTA doesn't like Gonzalez or Crawford much, and I was including some ugly numbers at the back of the pen. Possible that the PECOTA sheet has been updated with defensive adjustments since then?

Neither the CAIRO nor ZIPS projections left me scratching my head the way that the PECOTAs did. Or maybe that was the lice?
   7. Joel W Posted: February 26, 2011 at 08:23 PM (#3758842)
PECOTA is honestly worthless for trying to project wins because the defensive numbers are just absurd. It's really disappointing, but I just can't look at FRAA with any sort of seriousness.
   8. Darren Posted: February 27, 2011 at 06:13 PM (#3759156)
I read on a SOSH chat with DSG that Oliver really hates Crawford, projecting him to put up something like 10 WAR over his contract.

Joel, they changed FRAA, so it's all better now. Trust them.
   9. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 27, 2011 at 06:20 PM (#3759158)
The thing that caught my eye was that CAIRO and ZIPS both project Bard and Papelbon about the same, but PECOTA has Papelbon's ERA a full run under Bard's.

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